Posted on 11/07/2022 6:09:34 AM PST by Red Badger
is Murkowski going to lose?
Probably a 15-20 seat gain for the GOP in the House, and a GOP +1 or 50-50 in the Senate. That contest up in PA is too close to clear the Philly fraud threshold, so the GOP needs to flip two other seats.
Since it's Alaska with that bizarre ranked-choice voting scheme, we won't know for weeks.
RE: Romney and Murky-cow...
The US Constitution is silent on recalling/removing a Senator or Representative.
Therefore, the 10th Amendment comes into play.
What is not specified is reserved for the States or The People (NOT, *and*...OR!)
The people of the State through it’s legislature can remove a it’s US Senator from serving, citing the 10th Amendment.
We the People can act as free people.
Some fake news channels like The Hill and CBS (i think maybe NBC…) put out stories in the last 2 days that democratic enthusiasm has rebounded, equal to Republicans.
About the only thing I wonder (assuming the polls are true) is WHY?
Really the only, solitary, single reason I can see are the Lets Make A Deal game show like give aways lately. Biden has shamelessly been buying votes such as this multi-billion dollar money give away just announced a few weeks ago:
https://www.kget.com/news/politics/ap-billions-in-federal-money-to-help-lower-home-heating-costs/
“is Murkowski going to lose?”
In a word: no.
And if things shake out in the Senate as 51 R, 49 D, take a wild guess as to what Murkowski is likely to do. Hint: think of the name “Jim Jeffords”.
“Probably a 15-20 seat gain for the GOP in the House, and a GOP +1 or 50-50 in the Senate.”
This is an extremely realistic prediction, but the delusionals will howl with disappointment if we “only” do that well in the House and merely go +1 in the Senate.
Thanks; I agree. It’s easily forgotten, the GOP grabbed a big handful of House seats in 2020, so the upward gain will be limited.
Much as I’d love to see a “red wave,” that prediction seems a bit optimistic... most likely it’ll be more along the lines of a typical shift (a red trend, rather than “wave”) that comes in the first term of an unpopular White House occupant.
These pundits and analyst make predictions of 15-30, as if it’s some highly skilled and experienced calculation. Any casual observer can do the same. The other party averages 25 pickup in a normal year. This is the farthest thing from normal year. Much worse for dems than 1994. Heck the Republicans had 72 freshman and picked up 50 seats because Clinton put gays in the military and tried to pass Hillary care.
This year its the economy, specifically inflation, which passes everyone off. Even high unemployment only effects the families of those unemployed.
This election is comparable to the election of 1932 at the start of the Great depression or 76 after watergate when the Republicans were utterly destroyed. Neither of those elections was squarely the Republicans fault nor was the primary issue an issue for virtually everone, but we got the everyone. This year, we have an economy that was still on top of the world after covid and been crushed in less than 2 years, with no one to blame but demo controlled DC, If this election doesn’t surpass the election of 1994, there is only 1 reason for that, which we all know.
Back in the 1930’s at the height of The Great Depression, a man from Oklahoma was running for Congress.
His district included a Native American Indian Reservation, populated mostly by farmers, and of course he needed their votes to win.
At a campaign stop he gave a speech to the farmers, with the Chief of their tribe on the podium along with him.
He started his speech and told the assembled farmers if he was elected he would get them higher prices for their crops, at which the farmers all smiled and yelled ‘OOHLAH! OOHLA!’ in their native language.
Their Chief looked a bit surprised, but sat still and said nothing.
Then he proceeded to say he would make sure they all had new houses and not the ramshackle cabins they were living in now.
Again the farmers all smiled and started patting each other on the back and yelled ‘OOHLAH! OOHLAH!” in their native language.
Then he said that he would make sure they all had new trucks and tractors instead of the broken down junk they had to use now.
At this the Native farmers went wild and started laughing and patting each other on their backs and dancing a native dance yelling ‘OOHLAH! OOLAH!’ and just having a great time!
The Congressman wannabe just knew he had their votes in the bag!
After the speech the Chief invited him to see his prize bull that had won awards all over the state and was their pride and joy.
The bull was huge and was perfection itself in the world of Bovine Husbandry.
The Congressman candidate said, “Yes! That is the most beautiful bull I have ever seen!” and he opened the gate to get a better look.
“Oh, be careful where you step!” said the Chief, “We haven’t cleaned the pen yet today, you might get OOHLAH-OOHLAH all over your shoes!”...................
Sadly I think those Indians were more perceptive than about 1/2 the US population today.
Vote like your life and country depends upon it. Why, because it does.
5.56mm
Farmers know BS when they see it, smell it and hear it!.................
“These pundits and analyst make predictions of 15-30, as if it’s some highly skilled and experienced calculation. Any casual observer can do the same.”
Show me a “casual observer” calling for GOP to gain a jillion seats in the House who is doing anything aside from pulling a number out of his ass and/or relying on historical or anecdotal BS (”muh 1994!!!!”) which has nothing to do with the current election. Show me a casual observer who can LIST all of the districts the GOP is going to pick up when the Red Tsunami hits — they can’t do it because they have no idea.
Believe it or not, some people actually look at the composition of the specific House districts, the quality of the candidates, the amount being spent by each side, and even the polls despite the fact that of course every single one of them is bogus except the ones we like. /s
Speaking of the irrelevant comparison to 1994, the GOP after 1992 only held 176 seats in the House. OBVIOUSLY they had much more room to improve then than they do now, when they already hold approximately 40 more seats than they did at this time in 1994.
Some people think all 435 House seats are tossups, and if things break our way.... WOWZA!!!! 350+ of those 435 seats are not even remotely competitive. Any analysis based in reality should acknowledge that fact and focus on specific district-by-district probabilities.
I’d say close to 25-30 GOP pickup in the House and +2 in the Senate. So it would be a good night but not a huge wave.
In order to be a wave, it would be 35 in the House and 3-4 in the Senate.
Voters are lazy, why vote Kemp then cross ballot for Rev. Shuckin Jive, when you can go Hall of Fame? You'd have to have Kemp overvotes from the GOP side? Not happening. Shuckin Jive's prior margins were razor-thin anyway.
"4) Georgia (Advantage: Republicans): Republican Herschel Walker, the former Heisman Trophy-winning Georgia Bulldog, was behind by 5.2 points in the RCP average on October 9 but is now running neck-and-neck with Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock (with Walker leading by 0.4 points). Warnock sits at 46.8 percent support in the RCP average, so—like Cortez Masto—he would need to pick up a fair number of late-deciding voters. If neither candidate gets a majority of the vote, this race will go to a runoff in December."
No, it does not.
In 1967 the voters of Idaho decided to recall Sen. Frank Church because of his antiwar stance on the Vietnam War. A federal court ruled that because the Constitution is silent on the matter of recall, then recall is not permitted. Thus, the article within the Idaho Constitution permitting recall of federal officeholders was null and void. Higher courts refused an appeal.
In 2013 the voters of New Jersey decided to recall Sen. Robert Menendez because of his personal corruption. The New Jersey Supreme Court cited the Frank Church precedent in declaring that federal officeholders cannot be recalled and also declared that the recall provision in the New Jersey Constitution for federal officeholders was in violation of the Supremacy Clause in Article VI of the US Constitution. Thus, the recall provision in the New Jersey Constitution was null and void.
The New Jersey Supreme Court, however, went even farther. It declared that the gathering of petitions for recall of a federal officeholder was in itself unconstitutional. It issued a cease-and-desist order to the organization gathering those petitions. This was a direct violation of the 1st Amendment. The US Supreme Court declined to grant cert to the appeal. Thus, the Church precedent has become settled law nationwide by citation, and in New Jersey, the Menendez precedent stands in that state as settled law.
This is similar to the term limits case that appeared before the US Supreme Court some thirty years ago. The Court ruled that states could not apply term limits to federal officeholders because the Constitution is silent on the matter. Term limits can only be applied by way of a constitutional amendment. Thus, the 10th Amendment does not apply to federal officeholders.
Thank you.
The 10th has been nullified, then, when it comes to federal government accountability to the States and We the People.
They have adjudicated themselves and found themselves to be justified.
Good to know.
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