These pundits and analyst make predictions of 15-30, as if it’s some highly skilled and experienced calculation. Any casual observer can do the same. The other party averages 25 pickup in a normal year. This is the farthest thing from normal year. Much worse for dems than 1994. Heck the Republicans had 72 freshman and picked up 50 seats because Clinton put gays in the military and tried to pass Hillary care.
This year its the economy, specifically inflation, which passes everyone off. Even high unemployment only effects the families of those unemployed.
This election is comparable to the election of 1932 at the start of the Great depression or 76 after watergate when the Republicans were utterly destroyed. Neither of those elections was squarely the Republicans fault nor was the primary issue an issue for virtually everone, but we got the everyone. This year, we have an economy that was still on top of the world after covid and been crushed in less than 2 years, with no one to blame but demo controlled DC, If this election doesn’t surpass the election of 1994, there is only 1 reason for that, which we all know.
“These pundits and analyst make predictions of 15-30, as if it’s some highly skilled and experienced calculation. Any casual observer can do the same.”
Show me a “casual observer” calling for GOP to gain a jillion seats in the House who is doing anything aside from pulling a number out of his ass and/or relying on historical or anecdotal BS (”muh 1994!!!!”) which has nothing to do with the current election. Show me a casual observer who can LIST all of the districts the GOP is going to pick up when the Red Tsunami hits — they can’t do it because they have no idea.
Believe it or not, some people actually look at the composition of the specific House districts, the quality of the candidates, the amount being spent by each side, and even the polls despite the fact that of course every single one of them is bogus except the ones we like. /s
Speaking of the irrelevant comparison to 1994, the GOP after 1992 only held 176 seats in the House. OBVIOUSLY they had much more room to improve then than they do now, when they already hold approximately 40 more seats than they did at this time in 1994.
Some people think all 435 House seats are tossups, and if things break our way.... WOWZA!!!! 350+ of those 435 seats are not even remotely competitive. Any analysis based in reality should acknowledge that fact and focus on specific district-by-district probabilities.