Posted on 06/27/2022 9:55:12 AM PDT by blam
After an unexpected rise in US durable goods orders (in May) and pending home sales (in May), the Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Survey (in June) plunged to its lowest since May 2020.
Source: Bloomberg
The survey was expected to rise modestly from -7.3 to -6.5, but plunged to -17.7. New Orders crashed into negative territory and employment weakened significantly.
The comments from survey respondents are perhaps most enlightening of the reality facing many businesses in America: foreign dependence, cost inflation, over-regulation, and Biden energy policies…
◾As a country, we are not looking at the future and establishing relationships with emerging countries like we should to ease the dependency on Chinese products and services. This will hurt us in the long run.
◾Everything we buy and sell comes and goes by truck, if we can get a truck at any price. Inflation will continue until the country is self-sufficient in oil and gas. The current political policy may not change until 2024. Therefore, inflation will be our consistent companion for a while, then stagflation!
◾There is increased concern over Mexican manufacturers gaining more business in the U.S. due to not having the Section 232 tariffs.
◾We see the environment for the oil industry becoming even worse than the previous months. Biden is promoting a very caustic attitude toward the oil industry, which doesn’t help the country in any way.
And finally, this Dallas Fed respondent’s comment on the Biden admin seems to sum how many in America feel today:
“We’ll all be lucky to have a job with two more years of this disaster.”
Worse still, ‘hope’ is evaporating rapidly as six-months ahead activity expectations crashed to near COVID-lockdown lows…aside from the COVID lockdown, ‘hope’ hasn’t been this weak since Lehman…
Source: Bloomberg
“Growth scare” back on…
Tried to buy some summer clothing for Father’s Day but items I wanted were sold out. They are now taking orders again but delivery is not expected until 8/28 at earliest. So inventory is gone and there is a significant lag time in getting new inventory. What could possibly go wrong?
I've been trying for three weeks to find some 'hot' Rotel Tomatoes.
Difficult for me to analyze this w/ no labels for what the y-axis is.
How about this? How about a real tariff and reverse the off shoring and make stuff in the USA? plus raise revenue? Win - win.
Folks, this is a perfect example of the intellectual laziness and ultimately dishonesty from Zubu Brothers from their “news” articles.
If you click on the link to the article (n.b. - the first posting of this was pulled because the OP did not include the link) - you go to:
which links to an article titled “Dallas Fed Survey Plunges, “We’ll All Be Luck To Have A Job With Two More Years Of This Disaster”
The Zubu Brothers article shows a source link as:
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/dallas-fed-tumbles-two-year-low-hope-crashes
So the article was from ZeroHedge - not Bloomberg.
At ZeroHedge, the article title is:
“Dallas Fed Plunges As Respondents Unleash Unprecedented Slamdown Of “Disastrous” Biden Administration”
So, the hacks a Zubu Brothers took an article from ZeroHedge (NOT Bloomberg - the two charts are from a Bloomberg terminal), and then glommed on the fear porn of ““We’ll All Be Luck To Have A Job With Two More Years Of This Disaster”.
In in other words, they misrepresented the ZeroHedge article and looked for the absolute, most fear porny quote they could find.
If you want to see ALL the respondent comments, you can go here:
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2022/2206.aspx#tab-comments
Zubu Brothers - journalistic hacks that are intellectually lazy and dishonest.
The real estate bubble likely incented many to buy homes given low interest rates and climbing home values. Next we will likely see higher unemployment and mortgage loan defaults.
Let’s just say I’m familiar with the Swamp.
The Fed is the ‘gold standard’ for obfuscation that all agencies in DC aspire to.
Didn’t Baghdad Biden just say the economy is going great?
5.56mm
Get yourself a fan boat…
If it wasn’t so terrible, I would be impressed with their level of cow dung.
It’s truly next level.
The y-axis description is given in a box at the bottom.
And the sooner and the more people that take that position the sooner this greed fest at the hog feeding trough will end.
I hope they choke on the cars. Ditto with most durable goods and other things.
There was no logistics bottle neck last year. The proof is in the shipments. Container shipping costs went through the roof not because of not enough empty containers but because of DEMAND. There were more containers shipped last year and into the first quarter of this year than most any year past.
Inventory is burgeoning for many things. That is why Target and others are having sell-offs.
Home Depot out here(south Texas) was so packed with excess inventory that you could barely get a regular buggy down the aisles yesterday when we went for some shelf material. Most folks are more concerned about buying food, keeping electricity on, having a place to live, and trying to afford fuel to a job if they have one still.
Scalpers have them on amazon
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=%27hot%27+Rotel+Tomatoes
Yes. Many inventories are overflowing with untold merchandise. The malls have many patrons but mostly for their “food courts” and entertainment. Some sales but far less than it may appear from out on the street
The idea of trying to extract ten sales margins from a single car is dysfunctional — car sales will go down fast
They're getting pricy. I remember paying $0.98 a can at Walmart
There is a little state highway in front of our place. Traffic has slowed to a trickle compared to just months ago. Part of it is because of school being out but not only has the volume slowed the speeds have as well and I am happy of both.
You’re right. People are becoming more concerned about food, energy and shelter. We are getting down into Maslow’s territory.
There are only two of us now and I can’t imagine what a family of four or more requires for food every week. I’ve asked my wife to give me a 6 month update to compare with past years. We butcher a cow and so that cost does not hit us too much. Refuse to get hogs or chickens.
I’ll take hits and second degree burns to see this bunch of clowns in the administration take third degrees and become statistics.
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