Posted on 04/25/2022 5:25:05 AM PDT by blam
Craig Fuller monitors millions of transactions between U.S. truckers and their customers as chief executive of transportation data company FreightWaves – and he does not like what he is seeing.
There has been an unexpectedly sharp downturn in demand to truck everything from food to furniture since the beginning of March and rates in the overheated segment that deals in on-demand trucking jobs – known as the spot market – are skidding.
“It basically just dropped off a cliff,” said Fuller, who is concerned that the United States is at the start of a trucking recession that could decimate truckers’ ability to dictate prices and push some small trucking firms into bankruptcy.
Meanwhile, investors and financial analysts worry what will happen if the trucking slump deepens and spreads.
History has proven trucking to be a possible indicator for the U.S. economy. That is because when people buy less, companies ship less – and business activity slows. Economic recessions followed six of the 12 trucking recessions since 1972, according to an analysis by trucking data company Convoy.
Experts predicted trucking would soften a bit as pandemic-weary consumers shifted some spending from goods to services in response to the United States lifting COVID prevention measures. But they did not foresee Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent fuel prices to record highs, jolted already volatile stock markets, and forced shoppers to hit pause.
And now, trucking’s most demand-sensitive sector – the spot market – is in correction territory.
“It is the proverbial ‘canary in the mineshaft’,” said Joseph Rajkovacz, director of governmental affairs for the Western States Trucking Association. The group represents small trucking companies that dominate the spot market, which handled as much as 30% of freight during the height of the pandemic.
The spot rate deterioration hit when diesel prices were roughly doubling, battering the take-home pay of truckers like Marco Padilla, 63.
A few years ago, California-based Padilla spent 25-30 cents per mile to run his truck. “So for every dollar (of pay), I was pocketing 70 cents. Now it costs $1 a mile,” said Padilla.
Average first-quarter spot rates, excluding fuel, dove 55 cents from $2.78 per mile in mid-January to $2.23 on April 14. Spot rates normally drop about 22 cents per mile during that period, said Dean Croke, freight market analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics.
While spot rates remained 37 cents per mile above what they were during the last bull market for trucking in April 2018, they fell 6 cents year-over-year earlier this month – marking the first such reversal of the current cycle.
“That’s where the fear is. Is that the floor? Does this keep going?” Croke said of the demand-led decline.
Boon or bust?
The share of freight handled by the U.S. spot trucking market roughly doubled after consumer spending on durable goods surged some 20% during the pandemic. In their rush to keep up, retailers and other shippers focused on speed over efficiency – using more trucks and exacerbating demand for them.
At one point, the truckload spot market was handling more than 1 million loads per day, versus its historical average of about 400,000, said Brent Hutto, chief relationship officer at TruckStop.com, which – like DAT – matches truckers with spot market loads.
But demand tumbled in March, when retail sales excluding purchases of gasoline fell 0.3%. Online sales, which surged during the pandemic, declined for the second month in a row.
Skyrocketing diesel prices convinced shippers to wait to fill truck trailers, rather than rushing them out partially loaded – further moderating demand, analysts said.
Big trucking firms like JB Hunt Transport Services and Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings are somewhat insulated by their one-year, fixed-price contracts with companies ranging from Walmart and Home Depot to Procter & Gamble. Walmart and many other companies have in-house trucking while also employing outside firms.
Stifel transportation analyst Bert Subin said in a research note that he expects soft truckload demand in the second and third quarters, followed by a holiday season-fueled fourth-quarter rebound. Deutsche Bank earlier this month predicted interest rate hikes will tip the United States into recession next year.
Meanwhile, some shippers are asking for shorter trucking contracts, “given their belief that rates may tick lower,” Cowen transportation analysts said in a recent note.
Indeed, some executives like Fraser Townley, CEO of video gaming controller seller T2M, are celebrating the declining trucking prices as a relief to their profit margins.
“They’re about one-third down. There’s still a long way to go,” Townley said.
Ship what?
The supply chain shortage is creating this impact on trucking as well as the shift to rail for freight.
The supply chain shortage is having a bigger impact than most understand. For example, if a company builds bulldozers it needs metal fabrications, hoses, belts, engines, electronics, etc. If there is a shortage of hoses and belts due to oil prices, the manufacturer of the bulldozers will cut back on all supplies until they can get the hoses and belts. That means the metal fabricators, the engine builders, etc are all put on hold until the slowest part of the supply chain can catch up.
This is what I see happening across hundreds of industries right now and this is why you see a softening of the trucking market.
Remember when UCLA Anderson School used to publish the statistics on diesel consumption based upon the fuel sales at national truck refueling stations. It was a spot-on economic indicator.
For some strange reason, the data has been removed from public access. /sarc
That doesn’t bode well with high inflation in conjunction.
It’s gonna get worse.
That is the theme for the next couple of years.
There are still hundreds of ships sitting offshore of the Left coast, awaiting dockage to offload their goods. Part of the problem creating bottlenecks is that in Californicatia apparently, trucks older that 12 years old (it could be just ten) are not allowed into port facilities to pick up cargo. All to ‘protect the environment’, while causing inflation and perhaps, food shortages.
When is that ‘big one’ coming to Californicatia, to drop the freaks in San Fransicko and Lost Angeles into the Pacific?
No, we are heading straight into a recession with high inflation, high interest rates and a housing market collapse (home values will drop about 20%) which will put many consumers into a corner.
Expect bankruptcies to increase (both personal and business) while inflation continues to rise (producer prices rose more than consumer prices, meaning continued upward pressure on the price of everything)
One big calamity and the house of cards collapses. I personally predicted that this is one reason the DNC leadership does not care about losing 2022 and 2024 because when the big collapse happens, it can all be blamed on the GOP.
Trucking Industry shutdown will be a tremendous economic hit against the Country for many reasons, the biggest impact will be the Food Supply. All food items move by truck.
And the ChiComs still are trying to buy control of most if our major ports.
It seems it has the potential to be worse than 2007-2008.
It is caused by Biden’s ‘War on energy’.
Started on Day one.
We need high tariffs to force industry back to the USA. It is a matter of national security. I think Trump gets that.
If we made all of our goods in the USA we would not need one ship or one port.....
I read that 20% of the container ships and containers are anchored idly in Chinese ports. Backing up now due to Chinese COVID lockdowns.
Whenevert a ChiCom ship full of coolie made goods is not at sea then that is a good thing.
1. Covid lock-downs. Massive restrictions across the board that impeded the free movement of goods, production of goods and services, retail of goods and services for near 18 months (country and state dependent - global impact).
2. Massive government spending here in the US. That is also why although you have an increase in inflation nearly around the globe, here in the US it is especially pronounced:
https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2022/march/why-is-us-inflation-higher-than-in-other-countries/ (spend spend spend)
***This administration and the current party*** have been in complete control of this, they were behind pushing Covid restrictions and a global initiative, lock-downs, social distancing, even while in opposition and Trump was still in office and trying to minimize it (Schumer and Pelosi taking the lead back then).
This administration and the current party is overseeing this nations greatest government spending (in all of history), with the largest government share of GDP, greatest government growth in regulations (massive expanse in last year)...
I wonder how the MSM will spin this?
How will they blame Trump or the Republicans?
Very true.
Unfortunately, globalists like ‘Shrub’, were more than happy to move jobs to low wage countries like China, to save production costs. They failed to realize that PRC would NOT change, just keep the hard foreign currency, to buy America (NOT AmericAN).
I recall, as a very young man, when the best tools were,made in the UK, followed by the US, whose product quality was not to the British standard, but were less expensive. Now, you can’t find Canadian/American made hand tools.
Here in Alberta, most of our produce comes from Californicatia, even in the SUMMER and FALL! That SHOULD NOT BE! We should be able to produce most NECESSITIES at home!
But, of course, this is ALL part of the globalists at the WEF’s plan! Kill off millions, bring on riots, and the destr
Trade with nations that are led by despots, kings, single party communist regimes, a theocracy (anything that is an Islamic state), is a problem.
America has become seduced by low cost labor and cheap resources. Most American clothing and shoe manufacturers for example take advantage of the $1.15 per hour labor that is available in China and Vietnam. Then on top of that, imagine no OSHA, no EPA, no FLSA, no, no, no... Guess where most car batteries are made? Not in the US! Guess where some of the best places are when it comes to really cheap labor and no rules? Vietnam, China, Pakistan...
When you do trade with these type of nations, you are inviting their influence as with China today on the US. You are basically making them stronger, bringing technology, industry, management practices there, even training their work force. You are becoming dependent on them. And thier infleunce inside of the US grows as they hire lobbying firms, have their US subsidiaries donate huge to US politicians, try to engage the US media... and realize they already have major industries in the US and their top heads on their side since they manufacture in China (HP, Cisco, Apple, Amazon 75% made in China, GM...).
What you end up with can be very weird. In WWII when Japan bombed Hawaii, they were dropping bombs on us that were in part made out of US steel, ponder that one. As we push to admit China into the WTO, give them most favored trade status with us, even as they crush protesters on Tienanmen square in 1989, we are basically creating an enemy we some day might even end up fighting.
You need to realize, politicians are for sale, and big corporate America has the money. Big corporate America wants trade with China, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia... That is why even as Christians are oppressed in China; 1 million Muslims are in determent camps; you have forced, no consent or uninformed organ harvesting; forced abortions; forced labor; murder or incarceration of political dissidents; the rule of a single party communist regime with no democracy, no freedom of speech, and "we see no evil."
Not even our MSM wants to see this evil, because they are on board with it! They are part of the big corporate America.
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