Posted on 04/19/2022 8:41:12 AM PDT by Red Badger
There's something much worse than losing the House, and possibly the Senate, that's rattling top Democrats who are studying polling and election trends:
The big picture: It's the possibility of a re-elected President Trump with a compliant, filibuster-proof Senate majority in January 2025.
Why it matters: It's impossible to forecast elections. But you can look at the states with Senate elections in 2024 and see why some Democrats are sounding the alarm.
"Democrats are sleepwalking into a Senate disaster," Yale's Simon Bazelon wrote last week on Matt Yglesias' Substack, Slow Boring
"The 2024 map is much worse," Bazelon added. A close presidential election, he wrote, could doom Democratic Sens. Jon Tester in Montana ... Joe Manchin in West Virginia ... Sherrod Brown in Ohio ... Bob Casey in Pennsylvania ... Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin ... Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona. Plus toss-ups could threaten Sens. Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Jackie Rosen in Nevada. In all those states, hardcore liberalism is a tough sell. Then factor in that most of the GOP senators who stood up to Trump and his brand of politics will be gone: Sens. Rob Portman of Ohio and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, who are retiring after this term, and former Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona.
Now toss in the widespread belief in both parties that the House majority will be lost by Democrats in 2022 — and maintained, if not expanded, in 2024. Plus perhaps the most worrisome indicator for Democrats on the political dashboard: The party's edge with Hispanic voters has shrunk. So you see why John Anzalone, President Biden's campaign pollster, recently told a Politico podcast this is "the worst political environment that I’ve lived through in 30 years of being a political consultant."
There are several ways Democrats could overcome the GOP’s decisive map edge:
Dems could nominate a presidential candidate who wins decisively — with a clear majority. That typically lifts party candidates in close races. Or the GOP could nominate a presidential candidate who can't command a majority, or unelectable Senate candidates. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell warns anyone who'll listen that if the GOP keeps putting up fringe candidates, the party will blow an epic opportunity. The bottom line: David Shor, one of Democrats' most respected data scientists, has been sounding the alarm for months. "Unless we see big structural changes in the Democratic party's coalition," he tweeted, the 2024 outcome could be "Donald Trump winning a *filibuster-proof trifecta* [House, Senate, White House] with a minority of the vote."
Editor's note: This article has been corrected to change "veto-proof" to "filibuster-proof" in the second paragraph.
The national Democrat vote fraud machine takes special care with rigging US Senate races.
What are you going to do about it?
Gonna go down and be a poll watcher?
I am. Wont have any trouble in this county though.
Gonna need a huge majority to make up for RINOs.
Insights welcome.
Patriots are reminded that they must vote twice this election year. Your first vote is to primary career RINO incumbents. Your second vote is to replace outgoing Democrats and RINOs with Trump-endorsed patriot candidates.
Again, insights welcome.
Read between the lines. It will take two(2) election cycles. That means we pick up 4 senate seats in’22. Perhaps ‘steal’ a blue state seat. It depends on the strength of the wave.
One possible problem. A GOP takeover of both houses could ‘correct’ Biden’s mistakes and help the democrats in ‘24. Don’t forget BJ getting credit for balancing the budget in ‘98. A GOP congress helped him.
Absolutely. There has been nothing at all done to deal with the 2018 and 2020 Election Thefts. Nobody has been held to account or has there been a serious investigation into both. Until that takes place, I see no reason at all to get excited about any future election.
Too man RINOs/NeoCons for that to happen.
You won’t have any trouble BECAUSE of guys like you.
Everybody poll watch! Or run a precinct or be a poll worker etc
This has to be the new normal utility this country regains it’s sanity
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Democrats are sleepwalking into a Senate disaster
Good!
Democrats could not have stolen anything if it had not been for RINO-controlled state legislatures who handed them the Steal on a platter.
No more RINOs = No more stolen elections.
.
...”The bottom line: David Shor, one of Democrats’ most respected data scientists, has been sounding the alarm for months. “Unless we see big structural changes in the Democratic party’s coalition,” he tweeted, the 2024 outcome could be “Donald Trump winning a *filibuster-proof trifecta* [House, Senate, White House] with a minority of the vote.””
:)
‘Rats should just tell the truth now, and they’ll be all set for 2024.
‘Rats: “Trump ran twice, and acted as POTUS in his second term (even gave the SOTU at CPAC), ergo he is ineligible to run for a third term”
The fact that 81,000,000 dead people voted for bidEn would be immaterial. Indeed, that 81M, or more, could vote for the ‘Rat again.
Worst nightmare before ‘24 would be Trump, Palin or Boebert as Speaker after November this year.
Repeat of 2020 election. Biden hardly left his basement. Democrats weren’t worried, the outcome was determined after the 2016 election. No different now.
That is a bit harsh. I do know what I am talking about.
Virginia was a big win because we overwhelmed them with poll workers and integrity volunteers. It takes a serious effort which should not be necessary in a law abiding country.
It does however make a difference. We have to just keep pressing. I don’t say that it always works perfectly.
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