Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.

Wuhan virus –

Published Pfizer Phase 1/2 Covid vaccine clinical trial data showed dramatic transient lymphophenia (reduced white blood cells such as T-cells, NK cells, antibody producing Bcells) in ppl 1-3 days post-vaccination compared to unvaccinated control group.

T-cells fight a bunch of diseases, including cancer.

OBSERVATION - Medical authorities have been reporting an increase in cancers from around the world, some associating it with the Pfizer/Modrna jabs. The greater medical community has been trying to steer away from a direct association as it would further erode any of their credibility left from their decisions during the plandemic.

Economy –

The consumer price index rose just 0.1% from the previous month, and increased 7.1% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 7.3%.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI rose 0.2% on the month and 6% on an annual basis, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 6.1%.
“Cooling inflation will boost the markets and take pressure off the Fed for raising rates, but most importantly this spells real relief starting for Americans whose finances have been punished by higher prices,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union.

OBSERVATION – While some economists rejoice, concerns remain that the Fed has over tightened the money supply and triggered a significant recession in 2023. However, 7.1% is still very high and there are many legs under this economy that are still very shaky. A little too early to break out the bubbly.

IN RELATED- Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting today and markets widely expect it on Wednesday to announce a 0.5 percentage point rate increase, regardless of Tuesday’s CPI reading.

Union Pacific Railroad CEO Lance Fritz is scheduled to appear before the U.S. Surface Transportation Board (STB) to answer questions about rail delays. The rail company, which carries 27% of U.S. rail freight, imposed 886 service embargoes through October. According to the STB, this was more than all other Class I rail carriers combined.

OBSERVATION – if you remember from earlier this year, some of these embargos involved companies using non-UP cars to ship their products in. Diesel and diesel additives, fertilizer and grain were among the top three that I’ve noted. Part of the rail company’s arguments at the time were they were backlogged with their own cars and were lacking crews to run additional trains.

The U.S. will likely tumble into a “mild” recession next year that sees unemployment top 5%, according to a new report from Citi Global Wealth Investments. The group said in its latest outlook report published this week that the economy could lose an estimated 2 million jobs in 2023 as the jobless rate climbs to 5.25%.

“We believe that the Fed’s rate hikes and shrinking bond portfolio have been stringent enough to cause an economic contraction within 2023,” the economists said in the report. “And if the Fed does not pause rate hikes until it sees the contraction, a deeper recession may ensue.”

OBSERVATION – The roulette wheel is still spinning on just how bad the recession in 2023 will be.

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was arrested by Bahamian authorities Monday evening after the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York shared a sealed indictment with the Bahamian government, setting the stage for extradition and U.S. trial for the onetime crypto billionaire at the heart of the cryptocurrency exchange’s collapse. His arrest is the first concrete move by regulators to hold individuals accountable for the multibillion-dollar implosion of FTX last month.

OBSERVATION – How strenuously he will be prosecuted remains to be seen given that he apparently laundered billions of dollars into democrat political campaigns as well as some key republican leaders bank accounts that were later used to fund anti-Trump candidates.

Invasion of Illegals –

The House is scheduled to consider HR 3648, the Equal Access to Green cards for Legal Employment (EAGLE) Act, which would eliminate per-country limits on work visas and increase the limit on family-based visas.

Some Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers say they’re being told to cut back on arrests so there are detention beds available for migrants detained at the southern border. The directive reportedly was not issued nationwide but was given to agents in some ICE field offices, according to The Washington Times.
“We are being told to abandon detention of anyone without a Class A felony, like murder, in preparation for border flights,” one East Coast ICE officer told the Times.

IN RELATED - A huge migrant caravan of over 1,000 people crossed illegally into El Paso, TX last night, making it the largest single group we have ever seen. The city of El Paso reports Border Patrol now has over 5,000 in custody & has released hundreds to city streets.
An El Paso homeless shelter reports it is beyond capacity due to the surge in migrants being released on the city’s streets. Elsewhere in the city, two migrants were attacked and robbed outside a bus station by another migrant illegally present from Mexico.

OBSERVATION – This is only expected to get worse with the discontinuation of Title 42 in the next couple weeks. By this spring (before the summer heat reduces some of the illegal activity) things could be totally chaotic at the border. Border patrol is already overwhelmed at the current rate – imagine what will happen as even more illegals press across the border.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden is scheduled to sign the Respect for Marriage Act during a ceremony at the White House.

OBSERVATION – One can expect the flood of LGBT etc lawsuits against churches and other religious organizations to begin early next year.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

I jumped the gun yesterday in thinking that drop 5 of the Twitter files would be about Fauci.

Twitter Files Part 5 has just been released by Bari Weiss, which explains the removal of President Trump from Twitter.
The short version is that Twitter found that Trump’s tweets on the morning of January 8th, 2021 did NOT violate their policies against incitement.

OBSERVATION – Also noted that michelle 0bama demanded Trump be banned and the following day he was. However, the Fauci release is still incoming according to Musk.

IN RELATED - Yoel Roth, who played a key role in setting the policies that silenced conservative opinions and he was regularly meeting with people from the FBI and other federal government agencies, presumably to coordinate the censorship efforts, hasn’t liked the negative reporting he’s received. In fact, CNN is reporting that he and his boyfriend wound up fleeing their home this weekend after allegedly receiving threats and verbal attacks over his role in the company’s censorship policies.

OBSERVATION – Classical liberal/gay tactic of switching the narrative to their becoming the victim. Media trying to portray this gay individual as being a ‘republican’ – yes really.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The House is expected to move on a short term Continuing Resolution before the 16 December deadline to pass a spending bill. Senate Democrats proposed a $1 billion increase to the budget for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) said that Republicans don’t oppose the IRS, but expressed concerns over how the budget would be spent without increased scrutiny.

OBSERVATION – Upgunning the IRS with 1 BILLION more dollars to use to target conservative, white Americans.
The bigger fight is to prevent the CR from extending through the whole 2023 FY. This would in essence deny any republican house control over spending and lock in progressive democrat pork. It looks like the republicans are winning this one.

The news broke Monday evening that Sam Brinton, the gender-fluid, in-your-face, puppy-playing Deputy Assistant Secretary for Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition in the Office of Nuclear Energy in the Department of Energy, has finally been fired. A Department of Energy spokesbeing said tersely: “Sam Brinton is no longer a DOE employee. By law, the Department of Energy cannot comment further on personnel matters.”

OBSERVATION – What took so long. His is a casebook reason why in the past people with psychological issues were denied security clearances. This nut job should never been hired for the position in the first place. What is even scarier is that there are plenty more like him buried throughout the biden administration.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The United States Air Force conducted its first successful test of a fully-assembled hypersonic missile. The service achieved a major milestone in May with a successful booster test. The missile, designated AGM-183A Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon, was launched from a B-52 bomber off the coast of California.

OBSERVATION – this weapon is more advanced than the Russian version which is nothing more than an existing ground launched ballistic missile modified for launch from an aircraft – giving it higher performance capabilities. The US weapon is built hypersonic from the start.

China –

Update on the India/Chinese clash reported yesterday. Approximately 300 Chinese People’s Liberation Army troops armed with melee weapons attacked an Indian military border outpost in India’s Arunachal Pradesh state on 09 December. The Indian outpost was manned by 50 Indian Army personnel, some of which suffered non life-threatening injuries. There were no comments from Beijing on why PLA forces attacked the outpost or on any reported casualties.

OBSERVATION – Some rumored that the incident was triggered by higher-ups in China (where such a directive to initiate a border incident would have come) in response to a recent India-US military exercise.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are constructing defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.
It is only capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.

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RUMINT –
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officially denied rumors that Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov has been or soon will be replaced. However, the Russian MoD stopped short of offering the kind of credible support for this denial that it has provided to demonstrate that Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu is still on the job.
NOTE – The politics of this war have been brutal towards the MOD and senior generals at the Kremlin.

Logistics –
- Reports that Russian forces appear to lack sufficient infrastructure to support their troops in Crimea. Russian military bloggers claimed that the 1472nd Naval Clinical Hospital in Sevastopol is facing blood donor supply shortages for wounded Russian personnel. Other medical shortages plague all sectors of the front.

- “One senior military official briefed on details of the exchanges said Iran had agreed to supply up to 6,000 UAVs, mostly Shahed models of the type used by Russia since the summer.” “The senior military official, citing intelligence intercepts, said Iran agreed to supply designs/technical supervision for the planned Russian drone factory to be located in the Tatarstan region, for up to $1 billion, in addition to other, still unknown inducements.”

- The Russian military is quickly running out of artillery and rocket ammunition, Pentagon officials said Monday, and the Russian army can only sustain its current rate of attack in Ukraine until early next year. A senior U.S. defense official told reporters on a conference call that Moscow is increasingly turning to Iran and North Korea to replenish its “rapidly dwindling” stockpiles of rocket and artillery rounds
Reports that Russia is increasingly relying on 40+ year old munitions that fail most of the time.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- Reports that mobilized Russians are falling sick en masse with bronchitis and pneumonia at their training camp in Siberia, where they are living in tents in temperatures of -30°C (-22°F) according to their wives. They are being given no medicines and are having to buy their own.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine has liberated around 54% of the maximum amount of territory Russia seized since Feb 24 , 2022. Russia now controls around 18% of internationally recognized areas of Ukraine, including the Donbas and Crimea regions under Russian control since 2014.

Numerous spoiling attacks along the eastern fronts with fierce fighting continuing around Bakhmut. The defense of Bakhmut has been classic Ukrainian urban defense while the Russian attacks have been their typical frontal assaults lacking significant tank support and now with decreased artillery support. Ukrainian forces are increasingly under pressure at Bakhmut but are showing no signs of collapse.

Ukrainian forces are also continuing to strike key logistical and command targets in the south as well as in Russian territory close to the Ukraine border. These key, pinpoint strikes have been critical to the Ukrainian successes over the past months.

Russia is also continuing its drone/missile attacks targeting the electrical grid in an attempt to cripple power supply and force Ukraine to the bargaining table.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove. Continued sporadic Russian sporadic artillery strikes along the border northeast of Kharkiv city.

There is evidence that Russia is attempting to launch a new attack towards Lyman in order to regain the key logistical hub necessary to support its operations.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Continuing Russian attacks west-northwest of Donetsk and Bakhmut.. Russia forces at Bakhmut appear to be attempting to push north of the city to cut off a supply route from the north while unsuccessfully conducting frontal assaults. The northern side of the city is mostly open ground and with the mud, is a death trap for Russian armor. Minor ground gains have come at an extremely heavy cost.

Russia has continued attacks in the Avdiyivka area northwest of Donetsk. One of the main goals of the Russian push in this region is to place Donetsk city outside the artillery range of Ukraine, which has been hitting military targets regularly.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Bridge on the M14 highway between Melitopol and Kostiantynivka village was blown up overnight. Confusion as to the method used to hit the bridge, some claim a missile strike, but current videos posted on social media do not show apparent surface damage as would be created by a missile. NOTE – This is paralleling the battlefield preparation pattern Ukraine used in Kherson – cutting off main logistics routes. The M14 highway is one of those key supply lines connecting Crimea to the southern occupied areas of Ukraine.

Crimean front ———
Sporadic Russian artillery strikes on Kherson and vicinity.
Russia reportedly establishing fortifications along northern shore lines in Crimea to possibly fend off Ukrainian attacks.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian drone and missile attacks ongoing.

Russian Territory –
Large explosions were reported in Klintsy and Klimovo of Bryansk region located near the border with Belarus and Ukraine., yesterday. Local media report that the explosions took place on a headquarters of a military unit. Ukrainian claims to have hit the main base of the Russian 488th Motor Rifle Regiment in Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast. Size of the crater indicates a fairly large warhead, possibly from an OTR-21 Tochka SRBM.

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Russia has made the capture of Bakhmut priority number one and are supporting it with just about everything they have. However, pressing such an attack during peak fall mud season has taken a severe toll. Some recent analysis of death to wounded ratios seem to show a 1:2 ratio (commonly used ratios are 1:3 to 1:4). This strongly suggests that the wounded are dying from either poor or lack of care. Not good when losses going into the meat grinder by itself are so high to begin with.
I expect a continued blood bath for Bakhmut as Wagner Group forces have staked their reputation on taking it.

I’m also seeing increase in what would be called ‘spoiling attacks’ by Russia in an effort to preempt Ukrainian preparations for a winter offensive once the ground freezes. Part of this effort is designed to limit troop redeployment/concentration for the offensive. Ukraine has been using similar tactics in support of its offensives.

Availability of Russian arms, munitions and armor will continue to hamper any real Russian offensive action. Though their troop numbers have recently increased (on the books) from the mobilization - the mobilees are stuck with poor kit, poor armor and poor support in general – all contributing to a very poor morale.

Finally, Russia appears to have solved its cold weather issues with Iranian drones and have resumed their assault on the Ukraine power grid. If Iran supplies ballistic missiles as well, then the NATO response will appear to be supplying Ukraine with longer range systems as well – and no strings attached on striking deeper into Russia with them. Second, NATO may also move forward in getting Patriot systems for Ukraine use to counter the expected missile barrages. Russia’s campaign to destroy the Ukrainian power grid is about the only thing working well (after a fashion) for them at this stage.

Belarus -

A sudden check of the combat readiness of the army began in Belarus was initiated overnight.

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Europe / NATO General –

Speaking to a Norwegian media outlet, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that he was worried Ukraine will turn into a “full-fledged war that spreads into a major war between NATO and Russia.” He stressed that NATO was working to avoid a widening conflict.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

Things remain tense in N Kosovo with continuing to attack Kosovan police and disrupting commerce.

Iran –

Protests continue.

LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.

Also looking for what 2023 events you are most concerned about.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Recently circulated videos of a 2022 meeting of the Wisconsin chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) show an executive of the national organization stating that children who receive puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones “probably will be infertile.”
In a clip of a virtual meeting, which was posted on Twitter this week by Libs of TikTok, Dr. Kathryn Lowe addressed “infertility concerns” related to so-called transgender hormone use.
“The big thing is, here, the infertility concerns with starting gender affirming hormone therapy,” Lowe said in the video. “For kids who go on a blocker at tanner stage two, and then they add in gender affirming hormone therapy — there isn’t a lot of research about this out there — but what we do know is these kids probably will be infertile.”
Lowe is a board-certified pediatrician and member of the executive committee of the AAP Section on LGBT Health and Wellness, according to the AAP website.

OBSERVATION – Global depopulation is a stated goal of GGR/WEF. It can arguably be said that the Pfizer/Modena jabs are a component of that effort to depopulate given the direct deaths from the jabs, plus the alarming rate of ‘excess deaths’ now being recorded globally. Another avenue is to go after children. The jab is pretty well documented in causing spontaneous miscarriages and other reproductive problems. But the latest, demonically inspired insanity is the huge push by transgenderists to transition our children. Not only will the blockers cause sterility, but the literal removal of sex organs as well.
This is all part of a multifaceted effort to cull half the world’s population as stated by WEF adherents. Other parts include food and power restrictions.

Economy –

Item buried the MSM when reporting the latest inflation figures are the skyrocketing food prices. The price of vegetables from producers shot up 38% on a monthly basis in November — and jumped over 80% compared to November 2021 — according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics latest Producer Price Index. The drought in kalifornia has been a major driver in the price of vegetables.

The price of eggs shot up 26 percent last month. And over the past 12 months the price of eggs is up an astounding 244 percent.

And food supplies are expected to get even tighter in 2023. U.S. domestic supplies of key crops including corn, soybeans and wheat are expected to remain snug into 2023, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The agency is forecasting U.S. corn supplies to fall to a decade low before the 2023 harvest, while soybean stocks were seen at a seven-year low and wheat ending stocks are forecast at the lowest in 15 years.

The outlook for wheat is bad as well. The two largest wheat exporters in the world are projected to have very disappointing harvests in the months ahead.

Flooding in Australia, the world’s second largest wheat exporter, in recent weeks has caused extensive damage to the crop which was ready for harvest, a severe drought is expected shrink Argentina’s wheat crop by almost 40%. This will reduce global wheat availability in the first half of 2023.
A lack of rainfall in the U.S. Plains, where the winter crop ratings are running at the lowest since 2012, could dent supplies for the second half of the year.

The war in Ukraine also will impact grain crops / exports in 2023, adding to the woes.

OBSERVATION – There appears to be no relief in the near term for food supplies and prices. It should be clear that when lack of fertilizer and high fuel costs are factored in, our food supply is become increasingly endangered. If our food supply is in danger, the global situation is becoming equally grim.

No level of Fed rate increase can lower these costs, but will only increase them as farmers/ranchers will be priced out of short term loans.

Invasion of Illegals –

Twenty GOP House members who want to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas dialed up their pressure Tuesday on House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., at a press conference with three former DHS officials, The Hill reported.

OBSERVATION – eGOP are reluctant to go after Mayorkas, rather sit on their status quo and let him go unpunished. I expect to see some poorly covered congressional hearings and not much more than that.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Radical transgenderism (backed by Antifa’s muscle) is ascendent as the year ends and with the defense of marriage act will become even more malignant and dangerous.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

With 5 twitter file drops, still waiting to see what the next will bring.

POLITICAL FRONT –

House Democrats introduced a bill Tuesday known as the “Identifying Mass Shooters Act” that will direct the National Institute of Justice to collect, study and analyze online content to identify potential mass shooters before they act, according to a copy of the bill obtained by the Daily Caller News Foundation.
The bill, introduced by Democratic Maryland Rep. Kweisi Mfume along with several other Democrats, will require the director of the NIJ to create and submit a report to Congress detailing the “content patterns” of mass shooters within two years of the legislation’s enactment. The bill claims that existing oversight and accountability measures for social media platforms produce an environment that fosters hate speech, extremism, radicalization, and violence.”

OBSERVATION – this bill is hard to categorize. It is a trojan horse in that you have to remember democrats/leftists have defined your average, white American as a domestic terrorist who are trigger prone to commit violence. They will use this bill to justify further collection of intel on half of America who didn’t vote for biden. According to the left –“ an environment that fosters hate speech, extremism, radicalization, and violence.” covers a wide swath of the American people. Thus if you post about shooting, the constitution, opposition to golden cows of the left (LGBT, CRT, etc) et al, you will be targeted for action.

The House is scheduled to consider HR 1437 as a legislative vehicle for a one-week Continuing Resolution.

OBSERVATION - Looks like the democrats wont get their full one year CR and are having to maneuver for a shorter term.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Increasing likelihood that Patriot units, manned by Ukranians , may soon be on the way to Ukraine, following training of crews in Germany.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

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According to a report from Reuters, Russia on Tuesday dismissed a peace proposal from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that would involve a pullout of Russian troops, saying Kyiv needed to accept new territorial “realities.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said those realities included Russia’s addition of four Ukrainian territories in September following public referendums in the regions. Since the annexations, Russia has lost significant ground in the south and east of Ukraine and has spoken more frequently of its willingness to hold peace talks. But it says it does not see Ukraine and the West, which is supplying Kyiv with weapons, as ready to negotiate. (FO)

RUMINT – A major flu outbreak has hit Kremlin and could force Russian President Vladimir Putin into isolation in a bunker, a report in Metro said.
The development comes a day after officials announced that Mr Putin will not hold his annual end-of-year press conference this year. Since Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov gave no reason or the break with tradition, several outlets are claiming that it has been done due to health issues Mr Putin is facing. After Russia launched its offensive against Ukraine in February this year, there has been a renewed focus on Mr Putin’s health.
“Yes, this year, flu came to stay. The most unpleasant thing in this situation that it is precisely the flu variant which causes the most serious damage to health. This is the flu A virus (H1N1) of the pandemic year of 2009. In 2009, it emerged for the first time as a type of flu with high spread potential and triggered the 2009-2020 pandemic,” she said in an interview with the Rossiya-1 TV channel.

Metro said Russian officials are keeping the President away from people in the wake of the spread of this infectious disease. It added that Mr Putin is expected to abandon his address to the Upper House of Russian Parliament as many officials are affected by flu.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia continues to make minor gains around Bakhmut, but at a high cost of men and material. Actions along the rest of the front have dropped down a notch, likely due to inclement weather.
Russia launched another round of drone attacks, targeting primarily Kyiv. Reportedly all drones were shot down but it appears they may have missed one. Other missile/drones hit Kherson.

In the face of increasing missile/drone attacks, reports are that biden is having final preparations made to deploy Patriot ADA systems in Ukraine. Will discuss implications more below in OUTLOOK.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR

Crimean front ———
Sporadic Russian artillery strikes on Kherson and vicinity. There are reports that Russia is pulling units back from the east (south) bank of the Dnipir River to constructed fortifications further east.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory –
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
Ukrainian partisans conducted an assassination attempt against Kherson Oblast occupation Deputy Head Vitaly Bulyuk in his car in Skadovsk, Kherson Oblast on December 12.

OUTLOOK ——
Tactically, no significant change in the near future, with Russia continuing it push to capture Bahkmut.
On a more ‘stratigic’ level, the probable introduction of state-of-the-art Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine would be a mixed bag of nuts IMHO

The system is among the most advanced in the world and is usually in short supply. Due to its long-range capability it could potentially shoot down Russian missiles and drones before they come within range of Ukrainian cities. Russia would likely view any attempt to arm Ukraine with Patriot defences as an escalation. Former president Dmitry Medvedev - who is now deputy chairman of the national security council - warned against the move last month.

But unlike Ukraine’s existing air defense systems, Patriot systems require large crews to operate them, and it could take several months to train Kyiv’s forces to use it effectively.

Now, lets take a closer look at the capabilities of the system and is it a match to the threat Russia is presenting. More and more it appears that Russia’s game plan is to hit Ukraine with swarms of relatively cheap Iranian drones. It appears to be saving its missiles for other key targets, given their short supply. The Patriot system has proven effectiveness against short ranged ballistic missile systems – improving a lot since the Desert Shield/Storm days.

Patriot is good against aircraft and ballistic missiles. Most aircraft are not the problem for Ukraine since Russia has epically failed in establishing air superiority and struggles to provide local close air support (and taking losses from Manpad systems). Ukranian S300’s have been used to good effect against most Russian ballistic missiles – a target Patriot could help improve upon. This threat increases with the likelihood that Iran will supply copious amounts of ballistic missiles to Russia in the near future.

But the bigger developing threat is coming from the swarms of Iranian drones that are being launched in mass to locally overwhelm air defenses to enable some to reach their target. These drones are relatively cheap compared to the far more expensive Patriot missiles and likely harder to target due to their very low flying profile. So far Ukraine has had good success against the drones using standard bullet style ADA (like the German Gephard) and manpads. So a much more abundant, cheaper system may be better to deploy in mass.
A defense system not on the table that is designed to handle mass attacks is Israel’s Iron Dome system – with more cost effective missiles and system capable of engaging the high numbers of drones to be expected.

IMHO, the Patriot system is more a shiny object than practical means of addressing Russia’s recent drone/missile barrages. The better way would be reinforce existing success and give Ukraine longer range systems to put the hurt back on Russia.

Belarus -

Noted yesterday, Lukashenko ordered a snap comprehensive readiness check of the Belarusian military on December 13. The exercise does not appear to be cover for concentrating Belarusian and/or Russian forces near jumping-off positions for an invasion of Ukraine.

Rather, it involves Belarusian elements deploying to training grounds across Belarus, conducting engineering tasks, and practicing crossing the Neman and Berezina rivers (which are over 170 km and 70 km away from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, respectively).

Most activity is in the southwestern corner of Belarus. IF an invasion were to start (again, highly doubtful at this stage) a likely target would be the transportation/logistical hub of Lviv.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

President Osmani, PM Kurti and Speaker Konjufca signed Kosovo’s application for EU membership. To be sent tomorrow in Brussels

OBSERVATION – Some look at the application for EU membership as another reason Serbia is causing so much trouble with Kosovo - as a way to deter EU states from endorsing the application under threat of war.

Iran –

Protests continue.

Lebanon -

Lebanon has suffered growing economic decline and political chaos since 2019. Lebanese consider Iran the major cause and that makes Hezbollah less popular and effective. Israel has taken advantage of that by hiring more Lebanese to act as informants or agents. These jobs pay well and, for exceptional performers, it is possible to gain residence in Israel if the agent is under suspicion and at risk of arrest. Israel has used this program for decades but the number of agents was usually quite low. In times of great chaos in Lebanon, Israel expanded its network, then gradually reduced it as the situation in Lebanon calmed down. Iran has been a major disruptive force in Lebanon for two decades and is now hated more than Israel or Syria.

OBSERVATION - This in part, has struck fear in Hezbollah – local informants tipping off Israel to concealed facilities and going as far as to even openly oppose Hezbollah activities. Israel HUMINT is next to none in the region.

MORE RELATED - The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on Sunday that the Lebanese based Hezbollah terror group had transferred arms and redeployed militants in from military posts near Damascus and the eastern desert of Homs.

According to SOHR sources, Hezbollah transported weapons and ammunition from its military positions to more heavily fortified warehouses out of fear of potential Israeli attacks in the region.

OBSERVATION – Mosad is probably on this like white on rice. If Israel wants to reach out and touch these relocated weapons they can and will.

Syria -

The United States has resumed full patrols in northern Syria with Syrian Democratic Forces following airstrikes by Turkey in the region, The Jerusalem Post reported Tuesday, citing the Pentagon.
The Washington Post also reported Tuesday the patrols will be expanded.
The U.S. reduced its maneuvers with the SDF following airstrikes by Turkey into northern Syria in response to a bombing Nov. 13 on a busy Istanbul street that killed at least six and wounded dozens more.

OBSERVATION – Turkey may pause their attacks in Kurdish Syria and Iraq out of concern of US forces are present, but this may just cause them to shift more solidly towards a ground game vs air/artillery strikes .

Turkey -

President Erdogan claimed that a recent Turkish ballistic missile test had scared Greece. Erdogan once again accused Greece of militarily reinforcing its islands in the Aegean Sea. The test Erdogan referred to is most likely the October 18 test launch of a Tayfun short-range ballistic missile. The missile has an estimated range of 600 kilometers and was launched from a mobile launcher located on a military base in (northern Turkey, east of Trabzon. The missile flew west, and struck the sea near the Black Sea port of Sinop (east of Istanbul). Turkey said the impact point was 561 kilometers from the launcher. The missile is another example of Turkey’s ability to produce sophisticated modern weapons.

OBSERVATION – Turkey seems to be picking a lot of fights lately. Threats against Greece have been some of the longest standing boils on the rear end of NATO for decades now. Not sure if Erdogan is willing to actually pull the trigger against Greece yet as he would find himself isolated from NATO with only Russia as a possible ally. Turkey is also experiencing massive inflation – nearly at the 100% level, making the inclination to pick a fight to unify the country even more alluring.

Central / South America General-

Pro Bolsonaro protests in Brasilia, Brazil continued yesterday after multiple vehicles were burned in the Brazilian capital yesterday. Some observers note that the size and intensity of these protests are growing.
Late Monday night, Bolsonaro supporters attempted to enter the Federal Police headquarters in Brasilia to free one of their imprisoned leaders. Police arrested José Acácio Serere Xavante for accusations of “anti-democratic acts” and inciting a riot to prevent President-elect Lula de Silva from taking office.

OBSERVATION – Rumors that the military has already moved to Bolsonaro’s side in the dispute, but haven’t moved on the govt yet.

Misc of Note -

A baby formula launched in March to fill in for the shortage in America has issued a recall. A dangerous bacteria was found in its products. It is the same bacteria found in an Abbott plant this year.
The irony is obvious. The baby formula brand, ByHeart, that was created to help ease the shortage now finds itself destroying two days’ worth of product. A third-party testing company found formula contaminated with Cronobacter sakazakil.
Based in Reading, Pennsylvania, ByHeart finds itself recalling five batches of its formula. Fortunately, none of the affected products have been distributed to the public. The bacteria lives in very dry places. It can contaminate dry foods like formula, powdered milk, and herbal teas. Complications are deadly, like sepsis and meningitis, if the bacteria is ingested.

OBSERVATION – The US has become less than a third world country in regards to baby formula.

LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.

Also looking for what 2023 events you are most concerned about.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The United Kingdom is preparing to introduce the digital pound backed by the Bank of England (BoE), essentially making the idea of a trackable central bank digital currency (CBDC) a reality.

British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt confirmed this, adding that the BoE will begin consultations for the CBDC’s design. The digital pound sterling formed part of his “Edinburgh Reforms” that sought to overhaul the U.K.’s financial services.

“[The government will begin] bringing forward a consultation in the coming weeks to explore the case for a CBDC – a sovereign digital pound – and consult on a potential design. The BoE will also release a technology working paper setting out cutting-edge technology considerations informing the potential build of a digital pound,” Hunt wrote in a statement to the British Parliament.

OBSERVATION – Some try to claim that the WEF has no influence or control over the world’s governments. Yet are at a loss to explain why globally these countries are falling lock step into the stated plans and objectives of the WEF. CBDCs are but a progressive step towards the overall controlling identity cards that will eventually incorporate programmed financial access (CBDCs), Environmental and social compliance scoring. Most likely linked to a biometric identifier.

RELATED - According to a 12 December press release, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rolled out the retail version of their Central Bank Digital Currency on 01 December. One of the official motivations behind the move is easier access to cross-border transactions. Indian media is currently pushing the narrative that this will make the rupee less dependent on the dollar for international trade.

OBSERVATION – I’m expecting the move to CBDC to accelerate further in 2023.

Wuhan virus –

The U.S. is currently recording around 430 Covid deaths per day, on average, according to NBC News’ tally. That includes many people who received at least two Covid shots: Six in 10 adults who died of Covid in August were vaccinated or boosted, according to a report by KFF, a nonprofit health think tank. And for the most part, vaccinated people don’t avoid infections or reinfections anymore.

OBSERVATION – Yet the Branch Covidians are still pushing the jab – even though they know it doesn’t work and worse – is likely more dangerous than the virus itself.

A Rasmussen Reports poll from Wednesday reveals that more than two-thirds of the country would favor “a full-throated” investigation into the origin of the COVID-19 virus, along with the role Dr. Anthony Fauci — the White House’s leading epidemiologist — might have played in the release of the coronavirus.
According to the survey, 72% said they agreed with Congress conducting a detailed investigation into the virus’s starting point. They also believe Fauci should be called in to testify.

OBSERVATION – Reality is any investigation will be buried by the MSM and will result in no accountability – just a lot of chest thumping by all sides.

News coming from Judicial Watch indicates that it had obtained records from a FOIA lawsuit against the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Disease.
Judicial Watch said that the records contained information regarding data Moderna submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on its mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, which indicate a “statistically significant” number of rats were born with skeletal deformations after their mothers were injected with the vaccine. The documents also reveal Moderna elected not to conduct a number of standard pharmacological studies on the laboratory test animals.

Moderna submitted a Nonclinical Overview to the FDA to have its vaccine approved. Included in that overview was information that rats born to mothers that had been given the mRNA vaccine had skeletal abnormalities that included conditions such as “rib nodules” and “wavy ribs.” Moderna said the conditions were not considered “adverse.”

Whether or not this is significant for pregnant mothers who took the jab more than likely remains to be seen. In October of this year, the CDC said that COVID-19 vaccines were recommended for people six months and older, including pregnant and nursing mothers and women who are trying to become pregnant. According to the agency, getting COVID-19 could result in complications that could affect pregnancy and a baby’s development.
The point is that Moderna should have told us about the issue with the bone problems in the rats, and the FDA and CDC certainly should have told us. I believe that is called allowing people to make informed decisions about their bodies. And last I checked, that was a very important issue for many.

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/lincolnbrown/2022/12/14/judicial-watch-releases-new-information-on-the-moderna-vaccine-n1653605

OBSERVATION – More to the growing evidence pile of fraud committed by Moderna and the medical community.

Economy –

As expected, the Fed voted to raise the bank’s baseline interest rate by 0.5%, a step down from previous increases of 0.75%.
The Fed said it will continue hiking rates through 2023 and projected its fed funds rate to peak at a higher-than-expected 5.1%. With Wednesday’s half a percentage point hike, the targeted range for rates is currently 4.25% to 4.5%, the highest in 15 years.

OBSERVATION – This continues the watch over the economy if this plan is carried out. How much damage will these rate increases have to the economy. Already, the Fed is planning for a 5+% unemployment rate this summer as a result of its actions and has considered the housing market “collateral damage”. I think much of the ‘soft landing ‘ rhetoric is just their efforts to whistle past the graveyard.

According to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), roughly 20 million households in the U.S. — one out of six homes — are behind on their utility bills. As of August, these families owe about $16.1 billion in total, with an average amount owed of $788 — and the consequences of this could be dire, especially as home heat costs are expected to reach their highest level in over 10 years.
“I expect a tsunami of shutoffs,” Jean Su, a senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, told Bloomberg.

OBSERVATION – Need more evidence that bidenomics is killing the middle class and why the public doesn’t believe his claims of having mastered inflation – look to the pocket books of Americans.

Stock market is struggling this morning after new data showed retail sales fell more than expected in November, raising fears that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are tipping the economy into a recession. Investors absorbed a disappointing retail sales report that suggested inflation is taking a toll on consumers. Retail sales fell 0.6% in November, according to the Commerce Department. That was a bigger loss than the Dow Jones estimate of a 0.3% decline.

OBSERVATION – Economic data still pointing to recession contrary to govt/Fed narratives.

Invasion of Illegals –

2022 was the worst year for illegal immigration in U.S. history.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration has no plan for what to do beginning next week when it loses the ability to quickly expel illegal immigrants.

The outlook for 2023 will be worse yet.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Violence coming from trans-activists has taken over the lead from Antifa, though the black bloc will turn out to support them. However, much of the violence has focused on protests, with the administration turning blind eye and other govt entities cowed into inaction, the level of violence can be expected to increase as efforts to silence those on the other side increase.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Twitter founder Jack Dorsey has admitted that the social media company’s many failures were his fault - before immediately passing the blame to one of the tech firm’s activist investors.

In a blog post published Tuesday, Dorsey owned up to allowing the company to stray from the preservation of free speech, but added that he only allowed that to happen when he ‘no longer had hope,’ after an unnamed investment group bought up stock in the company in 2020.

Dorsey did not specify which company that was, but he was likely pointing to Elliott Management, which that year bought a majority share in Twitter for $387million under the direction of managing partner Jesse Cohn, who then set about trying to oust Dorsey.

OBSERVATION – Some are saying Dorsey has been set up to be the fall guy for Twitters unconstitutional liaison with the fed govt to censor speech. That may be true to a degree. Under the current regime it is highly unlikely Dorsey will face a judge over his clear perjury before a congressional committee and I’m darn well sure the FBI/CIA will not be touched either. Thus he deflects the criticism away from the govt. However, even with this Mea Culpa, he is trying to deflect blame onto Elliott Mgmt.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The House passed a stopgap spending bill Wednesday night that gives negotiators an extra week to finish a $1.7 trillion year-end spending package, setting up an all-out legislative sprint before lawmakers leave for the holidays.
The temporary funding patch, approved in a 224-201 vote, staves off a government shutdown Friday at midnight and extends federal cash through Dec. 23. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the Senate could pass the measure as soon as Thursday, as long as there isn’t “unwelcome brouhaha” — a reference to the ability of any one senator to hold up the funding fix in exchange for concessions or amendment votes.

OBSERVATION – Senate has scheduled a vote for today. This leaves the big fight over the duration of the CR and many other spending items packed into it.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The U.S. Army intends to deploy the Typhon weapon system to Germany under the 56th Artillery Command. Last week, they received the first of four Typhon weapon systems. The acquisition is escalating tensions with Russia, which views this as a violation of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which the U.S. left in 2018.

China –

The Chinese military sent a record 18 strategic bombers into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on Tuesday. China has flown military aircraft around Taiwan’s ADIZ on a near-daily basis for years. China has sent larger numbers of military aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ in a single day but Tuesday’s sortie represents the largest number of strategic bombers China has flown into Taiwan’s ADIZ in a single day.

OBSERVATION – This is part of China’s ongoing campaign to maintain stress on the Taiwan’s defense systems as well as to practice for the real thing. The flight paths of these planes over the past few years besides harassing Taiwan, are those that one would expect them to follow in the event of an actual attack. This causes Taiwan to respond to them as an actual threat.
The second component of this tactic is that they can cause Taiwan to lower its readiness by thinking this is just another Chinese “exercise” . Israel nearly fell to this tactic during the 1973 Yon Kippur war with Egypt/Syria.

Japan –

According to a report from Japanese media NHK, sources inside the Japanese Ministry of Defense say the Japanese Ground Self Defense Forces (JGSDF) will field two new hypersonic missile units equipped with long-range glide vehicles. The new units will be deployed in Hokkaido and Kyushu Prefectures no later than 2026. The JGSDF will also deploy two new anti-aircraft missile regiments on Okinawa and Amami-Oshima, increasing their total number to seven. As part of Japan’s new “counterstrike” initiative, it will field modernized Type-12 anti-ship missiles with a maximum range in excess of 900 km.

OBSERVATION – Japan continues to press forward to prepare for an eventual confrontation with China.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces continue to construct defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine at this time.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.

********

The Kremlin said that U.S. Patriot missile-defense systems would be a legitimate target if supplied to Ukraine, signaling that Russia doesn’t intend to cease its military offensive even in the face of superior weaponry.
U.S. officials this week said Washington was finalizing plans to provide Ukraine with the highly advanced weaponry that would significantly boost its air-defense capabilities, following months of Russian missile and drone attacks on the country’s power grid, cities and civilian infrastructure.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Wednesday that the coveted missile- defense batteries would absolutely be fair game for a strike, but added that he would rather not comment further until there was official information on the matter, as opposed to media reports, which he described as unreliable.

OBSERVATION – Of course it would be a target in Ukraine, just like they’ve targeted HIMARS units. I certainly hope they are not referring to Patriot batteries deployed to front line NATO countries like Poland.

According to Russia’s Interfax news agency, Russian motorized infantry troops deployed to Belarus as part of the regional group of forces are training for urban operations and strongpoint assaults.
NOTED HERE - All current analysis indicates that Russia is trying to use Belarus to train its recently mobilized conscripts due to an internal instructor shortage (Russia deployed the instructors to Ukraine).

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Activity appears to have slowed down a bit, again, likely due to poor weather. Hot spot continues to be fighting around Bahkmut and west of Donetsk. Ukaine continues with deep strikes hitting CPs, logistics and troop concentrations in both occupied territories and Russia.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk.
Detonations at a Russian ammunition depot reported after missile strike in Kadiivka

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Explosions reported in Melitopol at a Russian facility.

Crimean front ———
Sporadic Russian artillery strikes on Kherson and vicinity.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory –
Explosions were reported in Klintsy of Briansk region at a petroleum facility (?)

Air defense reportedly engaged aerial targets in Kursk, Kursk region of Russia

Railway line was blown up in Rostov region, “Freedom of Russia” has claimed responsibility

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Russia is making grudging gains around Bakhmut as Russia intensifies its attack and pours more support to the attacks. Ukraine is making them pay heavily for every inch they gain – typical of just about every point defensive action of the war.

Weather will continue to dominate action and forecasts of increasing cold conditions that will refreeze the ground towards the end of the month.
On a longer term basis, Ukrainian (and other) officials are forecasting that Russia may attempt a large-scale offensive in the early months of 2023. This is based in part by evaluating the redeployment of higher quality forces from the Kherson region to the east to bolster the drive to capture the Donbas. It also tries to factor in the recent introduction of mobilized conscripts. Ukraine has clearly indicated it will not pause over the winter and that appears to be playing out for Russia as well.

Critical to Russia’s goals will be to be able to mass enough men and armor to punch through Ukraine’s deep defenses. This will almost necessitate that they change their tactics on the ground to employ the combined arms maneuver based actions and abandon the frontal assault – road bound methods that have stymied them since February.

Russia is also hampered by a total lack of air superiority and increasingly poor armor and tanks they are pulling out of storage. The plethora of T-62s captured in Kherson shows how far down the ladder they have had to reach. Munitions to keep their hungry artillery firing is also a concern. High consumption rate for their present fight around Bakhmut and Donetsk has put a drain on stockpiles, not to forget Ukraine’s successful identification and interdiction of Russian logistics/ammo dumps. The combination will make it difficult for Russia to mass the stockpiles necessary to support a major offensive.
Logistics for Russia will be critical – and Russia has been failing at it since February.

On the other side, Ukraine is also in the position to redeploy forces to face a Russian offensive thanks to the relative ease they recaptured Kherson. Russian fixation on protecting Crimea will permit Ukraine to maintain a threat with minimal forces, freezing many of the higher quality forces Russia has. Further, Russia’s pulling of forces could open up weak zones that Ukraine could attack through – such as seen in the Kharkiv offensive.

What axis of attacks would Russia take? If they are following their current pattern, they will try to push past Bahkmut (or seize it more likely) and push eastward. This attack would likely be supported by a pincer coming out the the Donetsk region. Another supporting attack would likely come out of the Kreminna region – towards Lysenk to regain that transportation hub. Some suggest another attack out of the Svatove – Kreminna line.

This is all based on if they can prevent Ukraine from launching a preemptive attack, likely against Svatove or southward toward Melitopol to threaten Crimea. Ukraine is capable of supporting both, while Russia is far more limited in its capability.

Bottom line is there are a lot of ‘what ifs’ that have to be worked through. Russia will try something because failure to would endanger putin’s reign and place it in even worse shape. I think Ukraine will get out of the starting blocks before Russia as its troops are better supplied and more highly motivated.

Poland –

Polish Prime Minister - “We support the proposal to confiscate the assets of wealthy Russians in Europe”

.
Europe / NATO General –

Germany has spent over a half trillion dollars to purchase oil and gas in an effort to keep the country supplied with energy and its economy afloat after losing Russian energy imports. With winter just beginning, Germany is already running out of power and is relying on the pricier spot, or cash, energy market to help meet demand. The higher prices passed along to consumers is driving double-digit inflation.

OBSERVATION – I am concerned that this will result in the collapse of German industry that will ripple across the globe – creating some potential serious instability.

Iran –

Protests continue, though at a smaller scale than recently.

Central / South America General-

Rumors continue to grow in Brazil that the military is potentially preparing for some sort of response to the 2022 Election in the country as pro-Bolsonaro protests increase.

OBSERVATION – Much of this is still deep in the RUMINT zone. Instability in Brazil could impact global economic situation if the agriculture sector gets messed with.

Peruvian Defense Minister Alberto Otarola announced a 30-day national state of emergency on Tuesday in response to ongoing protests of ex-President Castillo’s arrest. The decision came from a council of ministers and suspended the rights to assembly, freedom of movement, and privacy.

OBSERVATION - Peru is a concern as it produces about 10% of the world’s copper. Copper is one of those necessities for the green agenda batteries. Copper prices have been high, though recently declining recently. Any cut in Peruvian production will hit the markets hard. BTW, many leftists have their fingers in the Peruvian copper industry and could use it to blackmail the govt.

Black Swans -

As winter formally approaches (well, we’ve been dealing with winter here in my corner of the Redoubt for the past couple months now) La Nina has proven to be rather fickle. The September update by NOAA indicates that there was a 91 percent chance the pattern would be in control through November and a 54 percent chance through March 2023. “Preliminary research indicates that La Niña corresponds to an especially active phase for tornadoes over the Deep South with a relatively high frequency of cold-season outbreaks of EF2 or stronger tornadoes,” the National Weather Service office in Jackson, Mississippi, said.

This part of the forecast has held true, with yesterday a major tornado ripping through the New Orleans as well as other parts of the country – almost unprecedented this deep into December.

Models give La Niña about a 50-50 chance of lasting from January to March 2023, according to the Climate Prediction Center. Deeper into spring, chances for an ENSO-neutral situation increase.
The latest outlook gives ENSO-neutral a 71% chance of winning out between February and April 2023.

How things pan out this winter – moisture wise – is critical to farmers. However, weather extremes hitting the country even harder than the previous two years. Not to go chicken little, but we need to be aware of how the weather could affect things for the good or bad. Next 4 – 5 months will be critical.

Had to take a day down and get necessary Christmas running around done yesterday.

LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.

Also looking for what 2023 events you are most concerned about.

Wuhan virus –

Officials in Philadelphia are about to start forcing kids to put masks back on, this time because of the “tripledemic.”

OBSERVATION - More about power, given it is documented that masks don’t work.

The Senate passed the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), including an amendment that rescinds the military COVID-19 vaccine mandate.

OBSERVATION - Some looking closer at the actual language of the bill indicate that the Sec Def can reinstitute the mandate again at a later time.

A new peer-reviewed German study has provided direct evidence that COVID-19 mRNA injections are directly responsible for damaging the hearts of human beings. Medical pathologists from Heidelberg University Hospital in Heidelberg, Germany have now published this evidence showing how people found dead after mRNA vaccination died.

A team of six scientists found out during their study that the mRNA-vaccinated patients suffered from heart damage because their hearts were attacked by their own immune cells. This autoimmune attack on their own heart cells then leads to their damaged hearts beating so many times per second that, once the tachycardia unexpectedly started, they died in minutes, according to a report by the Epoch Times.

The article, “Autopsy-based histopathological characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination,” was published on Nov. 27, 2022, in the journal Clinical Research in Cardiology, the official journal of the German Cardiac Society. The research team autopsied 25 victims of different ages who were found dead at home within 28 days of vaccination. They looked at their heart tissue under the microscope to find out why these people died of cardiac rhythmic disruption when they had no apparent underlying heart disease.
In the authors’ own words: “Our findings establish the histological phenotype of lethal vaccination-associated myocarditis.”

https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/new-peer-reviewed-german-study-provides-direct-evidence-vaccine-damaged-hearts

OBSERVATION – As Florida moves forward with a grand Jury to investigate Pfizer and Moderna, studies like this as well as others, will form basis to convict them of fraud and malpractice in keeping consequences of the jab hidden from the public.

Economy –

Stocks sank early Friday, pacing toward a second-straight weekly loss, as more downbeat news on the U.S. economy accelerated a move lower.
The latest leg lower for stocks followed preliminary readings on economic activity in the U.S. this month from S&P Global, which showed a further deterioration in activity to start December.

“Business conditions are worsening as 2022 draws to a close, with a steep fall in the PMI indicative of GDP contracting in the fourth quarter at an annualized rate of around 1.5%,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Jobs growth has meanwhile slowed to a crawl as firms across both manufacturing and services take a much more cautious approach to hiring amid the slump in customer demand.”
On Thursday, the November retail sales report was unexpectedly weak, prompting concern over the health of the U.S. consumer, which has been the driver of a better-than-expected economy this year.
After rebounding earlier this week, U.S. stocks are again on pace to log weekly losses again after last week saw the S&P 500 suffer its worst weekly loss since late September.
Investors also had an eye on crude oil early Friday, with WTI futures down over 3% to trade near $73.70 a barrel. Early this week, oil hit a new 2022 low.

OBSERVATION – More economic factors that economists are looking at that are trending contrary to the Fed/biden narrative of a ‘soft’ landing. FWIW, low oil futures reflect a global recession that creates less demand for oil.

The Pacific region had 203 billion cubic feet of gas in storage as of 9 December. According to the Energy Information Administration, this is 26% below the normal level and the lowest since 2009. Spot prices for heating and power generation fuel in California surged to $40 per million British Thermal Units (BTUs), six times the spot price in the rest of the United States. (FO)

OBSERVATION – This will push home heating prices upward if not this year, next year as the energy companies try to catch up on their costs.

According to Department of Labor data for November, flour had the largest ever jump in prices while eggs increased by 49.1%, the largest increase in four decades. Poultry and dairy also saw significant price increases, with turkey and other uncooked poultry at 17.9% and milk at 14.7%.

OBSERVATION – while biden is crowing about how he has defeated inflation, this is reality for those of us who have to buy our food from our paychecks.

Invasion of Illegals –

A federal judge has prevented the Biden administration from ending the “Remain in Mexico” immigration policy introduced by the Trump administration, ruling on Thursday that it should stay in place while legal challenges play out. Under the policy, which was enacted in 2019 and is formally known as the Migrant Protection Protocols, asylum-seekers — including those not from Mexico — have been sent to Mexico to await proceedings in their cases.

President Biden moved to end the policy, under which more than 70,000 asylum-seekers were sent to Mexico from the United States, upon taking office.
Texas and Missouri took legal action to prevent Biden from ending the policy, delaying its repeal. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in June that Biden could end the policy and did not violate federal immigration law in trying to rescind it.
But the Supreme Court also returned the case to lower courts for additional proceedings, tasking U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk with determining whether the administration’s action was “arbitrary and capricious” in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act, which governs how federal agencies develop and issue regulations.

OBSERVATION – Just more of the legal chaos that is the result of biden’s open border policy. Biden has no other policy – just let them in. When Art 24 shut down next week, their only plan is to ship even more illegals into areas across the nation

Biden / Harris watch –

More typical biden can’t read the teleprompter any more and gets lost on the platform after giving his speech.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Five people were arrested and charged with domestic terrorism and other charges after a joint task force operation at the site of the future Atlanta Public Safety Training Center. Police found a cache of explosives. Leading up to the raid, militants tried to burn a man to death in a car.

OBSERVATION – This fight over the area in South Atlanta has been going on for over a year and has successfully delayed the project by about as long.
This has been more of an environmental protest as the construction is taking place in a forested area frequently filled with homeless encampments. Antifa has given itself an overall authority for the actions against construction crews and police.

Antifa International, which coordinates with violent affiliates, says it is being prevented from sharing its Mastodon account. Even before Musk took over Twitter, Mastodon had been the reserve for the most violent & depraved posts by Antifa accounts.

OBSERVATION – Information war has shifted against Antifa and affiliates with the rise of Musk and with what appears to have been an antifa supporter in bloc harassing his son, that censorship will likely increase.

A group of masked, armed Antifa militants gathered in support of the all-ages “Drag Queen Christmas” event at the Aztec Theater in San Antonio, Texas yesterday.

OBSERVATION – In locations like Texas where open carry laws are more lenient, Antifa has been showing up to protests armed, in this case, with AR-15 styled rifles. This is part of the trend since 2020 where Antifa has been turning out increasingly armed, and in many cases, with some training. This can be considered in some ways a response to the welcome antifa received in 2020 when they tried to push their protests into Red areas and were met coming off their busses with citizens standing ready in their kit. Antifa has shown willingness to use firearms in their road block set ups in the recent past, and if things get spicy as they did in 2020, I suspect that they would target counter protestors or even more likely, civilian defense elements protecting property and lives.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Musk dropped the hammer on leftist ‘journalists’ and some others who were essentially doxing individuals. Much wailing, moaning and gnashing of teeth ensued in the twitterverse. (of course they were silent – even cheering the suspension of conservative voices) Twitter suspension of dozens of liberal journalists from the platform on Thursday, caused massive meltdown as left-leaning journalists as opposed to conservative ones were suspended.

OBSERVATION – you’d think the world had ended for these bubble living leftists inhabiting the twitterverse as suddenly they discover ‘free speech’ - forgetting that they cheered similar suspensions for posters on the right.

Fallout from drop #6 continues with the FBI’s lame excuse - In response to the “Twitter Files,” a spokesperson for the FBI told Fox News Digital, “The FBI regularly engages with private sector entities to provide information specific to identified foreign malign influence actors’ subversive, undeclared, covert, or criminal activities. Private sector entities independently make decisions about what, if any, action they take on their platforms and for their customers after the FBI has notified them.”

OBSERVATION – If you can stomach it, here is one link to the thread of #6 –
https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2022/12/16/auto-draft-83-n518377

Drop # 7 rumors are to finally hit the Fauci/wuhan dumpster fire.

The House’s Jan. 6 select committee is preparing a vote calling for the Justice Department to pursue at least three criminal charges against former President Donald Trump, including one count of insurrection.

OBSERVATION- The end game of all these attacks on Trump is to block his run for the WH in 2024. In this case, invoking Section 3 of the 14th Amendment stop him. Other approaches are the illegal pending releases of his tax records as well as the special prosecutor looking into Key Mirago documents and likely any J6 related charges from this ‘committee’.

Will dems overplay their hand on this? Will Garland be stupid enough to be heavy handed in dealing with Trump? They need to know that if they do, they will be pressing real close to a red line that could trigger serious push back. And perhaps that is exactly what they want so they can justify a crackdown on all those domestic terrorists out there.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Scandal at the RNC. Romney McDaniel spent RNC donor cash on decadent leftist luxuries as Republican Party Crashed & Burned
• $3.1M on private jets
• $1.3M on limousines
• $17M on donor mementos
• $750K on flowers
• $80K in booze?!

OBSERVATION – Meanwhile, AWOL over Arizona.

IN RELATED - Lake has managed to win a significant pre-trial motion to permit inspection of ballots from Maricopa County for irregularities.

The Twitter Files, Part Six
TWITTER, THE FBI SUBSIDIARY

OBSERVATION - I could only wade through some of the twitter thread. Made me nauseous. Such overt injection of the fed govt agencies into blackballing a presidential candidate turned president is – unspeakable. See Cancel Culture above for details and link if you skimmed over.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

5 antifa supporters arrested under terror charges – see CW2 above.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Last week the US Embassy in Lithuania announced the Pentagon plans to step up troop deployments in the Baltic states, taking what was previously categorized as “episodic” troop deployments and turning toward a “persistent rotational presence” across the Baltics, including in Estonia - which shares two small stretches of land-border with Russia.

The embassy wrote in an early December press release that “US Ambassador Robert Gilchrist informed Minister of National Defense Arvydas Anušauskas that, as part of the ongoing commitment to its Baltic Allies, the United States will further enhance the continuous and persistent US military presence in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.” This was widely interpreted as a direct response to Russia’s ten-month long assault on nearby Ukraine.

“The United States will also deploy a HIMARS platoon to Estonia, along with the corresponding control equipment and systems, and will cooperate with the Estonian Defense Forces to establish a divisional structure within the framework of NATO,” the US military and Estonian defense ministry confirmed.

OBSERVATION – Russia has been verbally very aggressive towards the Baltic States and have threatened them with being ‘next’ after Russia conquers Ukraine. The Baltic States in their own way, along with Poland and Romania, have been among the strongest NATO supporters of the effort to supply Ukraine with advanced weapons and are very likely to invade Belarus or bring military directly into Ukraine should putin try to expand the war. Prior to the Ukraine war, the Baltics were facing a ‘superior’ Russia force and needed additional NATO forces as a tripwire to make sure ART 5 was implemented quickly in the event of a Russian invasion. With Russia’s army heavily depleted, the tide seems to have shifted to where they are more than willing to get involved.

North/South Korea –

North Korea is preparing to hold a military parade, satellite imagery shows:

-Thousands of soldiers have gathered at Miriam training grounds
-Practice started earlier this month

It would be the fifth military parade in under three years

A natural earthquake, rattled NK, getting North Korea watchers’ attention, given the location.

Japan –

On December 16, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio’s cabinet approved the nation’s three key security documents, which will mark a major turning point in Japan’s post-war policy of maintaining an exclusively defense-oriented policy if realized. Japan is in the process of returning to “a normal nation” in the long run by allowing the nation’s possession – and the possible use – of offensive capabilities to strike against enemy missile bases in the event of an armed attack on Tokyo.

Japan will see an increase defense spending to 43 trillion yen ($314 billion) from fiscal year 2023 to 2027. This is a 56.5 percent increase from the 27.47 trillion yen in the current five-year plan, which covers fiscal year 2019 to 2023. This will increase Japan’s defense spending to the NATO standard of 2 percent of the national GDP in 2027 − following Kishida’s instructions to his defense and finance ministers to do so in late November.

The increased defense spending will allow Japan to acquire many standoff missiles that can be used for counterforce strike, including U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles.

OBSERVATION – Historic move by Japan, and one fraught with problems as it struggles with its own economic woes that were impacting the country even before wuhan came around. But it is clear that Japan is putting the pedal to the metal on getting itself postured militarily to address primarily Chinese threats in the region.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces continue to construct defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine at this time.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.

********

Kremlin confirmed Putin’s visit to Lukashenka in Minsk on Monday, discussion of strategic partnership and integration relationship on agenda. Most likely, more arm twisting to get Belarus more actively involved in the ground war in Ukraine and not just essentially sit on the sidelines. See Ukrainian OUTLOOK below for more on a potetial attack from Belarus toward Kyiv, version 2.0 below.

Kerch Bridge update –
One lane out of Crimea is apparently still open at a very limited transit rate. Russian have resumed fleeing the area and are waiting hours to cross the bridge because winter storms have shut down all ferry traffic.

RUMINT –
Feathers are flying and divisions are widening among Russia’s hawks as the degree to which the invasion of Ukraine was a mistake becomes more evident. It is a powerful reminder that the main threat to Vladimir Putin these days comes not from liberals — largely imprisoned or forced into exile — but from increasingly disgruntled nationalists.
https://thespectator.com/topic/vladimir-putin-hawks-turning-nationalism/

OBSERVATION – The power plays between nationalists, Wagner Group/Chenchen forces, MOD, civil population, etc have been intense and I’ve only done limited notations here on them because for one, propaganda is very heavy and two, there are tons of other items I need to keep deeper track of. The fact that this little war-will-be-over in three days special operation now going into it’s tenth month has not worn well on Russia and putin.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Recent 24 hour period was substantially quieter than yesteday’s. Back to limited Russian attacks in the Bahkmut and Donetsk regions.

Yesterday was a different matter as Ukrainian air defense shot down 60 of 76 Russian Kh-101 and Kalibr missiles today Air defense shot down 10 missiles over Dnipropetrovsk region. 5 Kalibr cruise missiles were shot down in Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. 37 of 40 Russian missiles were shot down in the skies over Kyiv. Russian army conducted 12 missile strikes in Zaporizhzhia, using S-300 missiles in ground-to-ground mode

Operator of Ukrainian power grid declared emergency situation following Russian missile strikes

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR

Crimean front ———
Sporadic Russian artillery strikes on Kherson and vicinity.

Sentinel-1 SAR-imagery of Medvedivka - NE Crimea this morning shows that significant quantities of equipment remains parked there, likely several battalions worth. Equipment began to accumulate here in September, and this is possibly a Russian reserves rally area

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory –
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Weather conditions still driving ground operations for both sides. Hot spots will continue to be Russia’s drive to capture Bahkmut and regions west of Donetsk. Russian will also continue to launch spoiling attacks in other sectors to delay expected Ukranian offensive preparations once the ground has sufficiently frozen for cross country maneuvering.

My last post I commented on Russian preparation and options for a resumption of the offensive in Ukraine. I discounted the attempt by Russia to press out of Belarus to threaten Kyiv again. Russian forces are extremely unlikely to be more successful at attacking northern Ukraine in the winter of 2023 than they were in Feb. 2022. Russia’s conventional forces are badly degraded, and Ukrainian forces are better prepared to defend now. Yet, as we’ve see throughout this war, Russia is slow to learn its lessons from past mistakes. With this said, analysts are still looking at this option, so I think I should comment on it as well from my viewpoint.

Currently, it is estimated that Russia has about 2 battalions worth of armor and 3000 soldiers training in Belarus. This is substantially lower than the substantial force mustered there in February when the war kicked off.

Options into Ukraine are limited by poor maneuvering terrain. Routes to Kyiv are narrow and easily defended – as Russia quickly discovered. An alternative is an attack further west towards Kviv that could threaten supply lines coming in from Poland. I’ve noted in the past that such an offensive could trigger Poland/Baltics to intervene as it could be seen as a threat to them. In fact, one attack axis from Belarus to Ukraine passes through the Baltics and Poland. That would result in a rapid expansion of the conflict.

Second, Russian has been trying to push a reluctant Lukashenka to join in the war directly. Lukashenka realizes that his military leaders will likely refuse any order, setting up a potential coup attempt. Belarus military knows full well that they would only be cannon fodder and fools to join in a second attack from the north. Russia, OTOH is desperate for men and armor that it will be interesting to see just how hard putin twists Lukashenka’s arm to force more involvement.

Belarus’ military, already considered one of the most poorly trained in Europe, has been hamstrung even more through the loss of copious amounts of ammo, APCs, tank and other vehicles to Russia – key things they would need if they were to go to war against Ukraine. This is made worse in that they cannot rely on Russia to reverse the supply lines to get those items back in the course of combat. This makes for another reason that the Belarus military is against joining the fight in a more direct way.

Near term, Belarus will continue to help train recently mobilized conscripts as well as meet operational interactiveness between the two countries. No other intelligence indicator of an impending invasion are flashing as in February, but it doesn’t mean that with what I’ve noted Russia has ruled out such an approach. The current General in charge of the theatre is reportedly known for thinking out of the box and a Hail Mary type of attack out of the north would be such a thing he may consider.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Issues with electrical supply reported in Moldova as a result of Russian missile strikes on the Ukrainian power grid overnight.

Belarus -

Kremlin confirmed Putin’s visit to Lukashenka in Minsk on Monday, discussion of strategic partnership and integration relationship on agenda

.
Europe / NATO General –

The French President calld on China and India to put pressure on Russia to stop the drone attacks on Ukraine

Medical professionals in Germany warned on Friday that delivery problems have led to a shortage of important medications and called for production to be brought back to Germany.
“Supply bottlenecks are increasingly causing grave problems, including in hospitals,” the head of the German Hospital Federation (DKG), Gerald Gaß told the Funke media group.
The situation is particularly serious for antibiotics, cancer drugs and emergency medication for heart attacks and strokes.

OBSERVATION – As the US is hit with antibiotic shortages as well, it is interesting that this category has gone critical globally. This most likely will result in increasing deaths for diseases easily controlled by antibiotics. And as with the US, production of key drugs — especially cheaper ones where patents have long expired such as ibuprofen and cough syrups — was shifted to cheaper locations such as China and India over the past decade.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

Serbia submitted a request to the NATO mission (KFOR) to bring a contingent of its army & police into Northern Kosovo.

OBSERVATION – This is a non-starter. KFOR and Kosovo will not allow any Serbian combat/police elements in Kosovo.

Iran –

Protests continue, though at a smaller scale than recently.

Central / South America General-

Peruvian high court investigative judge Juan Carlos Checkley Soria sentenced the nation’s former president, Pedro Castillo, on Thursday to serve 18 months in preventive prison on charges of “rebellion” and conspiracy to abuse authority.

Peru’s Foreign Minister summoned home its ambassadors from Mexico and Argentina after both countries criticized the recent removal of Peru’s former president Pedro Castillo. Castillo, who had led the country for only 17 months, was swiftly removed from power amid deadly street protests over deteriorating living conditions and rising prices.

Two ministers of Peru’s already embattled government resigned from their posts on Friday following several deaths amid protests triggered by the ousting of former President Pedro Castillo last week.
Education Minister Patricia Correa and Culture Minister Jair Perez both cited the deaths in their announcements.
The casualty toll of leftist riots rose to 20 deaths and over 187 injured as the protests entered their second week.

OBSERVATION – Globally, at greatest threat from these protests are Peru’s copper mining industry. Peru’s current president is a WEF acolyte and was likely maneuvered into the slot as Castillo was not being compliant with its agenda, instead moving forward with a corrupt administration.

Misc of Note –

Texas appears to be in the crosshairs of a massive Arctic blast scheduled for next week. Meteorologists warn that temperatures could dive to extremes, while energy traders are concerned about a potential wave of freeze-offs across the state that could affect the flow of natural gas.
Judah Cohen, head of seasonal forecasting at AER, a Verisk company, told Axios the cold blast slated for around the Christmas holiday could be one of the most extreme cold air masses to pour into the southern part of the country in years. Computer model data shows temperatures could dive 30 degrees below average by Dec. 23.
Cohen warned the upcoming cold blast could be on par with the February 2021 episode when an Arctic blast triggered a grid failure across Texas.

OBSERVATION – If the Texas power grid authority drops the ball again, with this much heads up and past experience to draw upon, it should be cleansed of incompetent members. Here in my corner of the Redoubt we are now expecting overnight low temperatures of around -24 deg F – it’s been a while since I’ve felt that level of cold – and am making sure to have adequate split firewood ready for that night.

LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.

Also looking for what 2023 events you are most concerned about.

Wuhan virus –

A study titled “COVID Vaccine Hesitancy and Risk of a Traffic Crash,” published in the American Journal of Medicine, found a 72% higher rate of car accidents in the unvaccinated compared to the vaccinated

OBSERVATION - I initially chuckled at the study, most likely from cherry-picked data. I encountered a Yahoo article that made it clearer –

The findings are significant enough that primary care doctors should consider counseling unvaccinated patients on traffic safety—and insurance companies might base changes to insurance policies on vaccination data, the authors suggest.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/people-skipped-covid-vaccine-higher-183148392.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAKemKjNHmpTpDOcn9PHqqVyHO3gxpIzaRbr_5EkJViXkg8iXZ2m7UdCgL469-yR_fqWdCtZ2oqrDjmsqUajUEaB8GCsNHWwQ7g55kVWSpN4aR9c3MwisAgDq7s2Vbpzv9e3GDG7ZHkp_mrCcWBPIEPMRu2YMtHjvwKwhmS6P1ufw

Did you catch that? More social engineering designed to pressure the unjabbed to become jabbed. Note that this is likely a harbinger of other social engineering pressures designed to force compliance. They don’t want to give up the push for power.

Economy –

Cleveland Federal Reserve bank President Loretta Mester said on Friday that she believes the U.S. central bank will have to raise interest rates higher than the level most policy makers cited in their Fed forecasts this week.
Against the Fed’s projection that the current federal funds rate of between 4.25% and 4.5% will rise to 5.1% next year, Mester said, “I’m a little higher than the median.” She spoke on Bloomberg’s television channel.

“We need to continue to bring up interest rates into a restrictive stance,” Mester said recent inflation data pointing to moderating price increases is “good news.” But she added the data does not yet show that a peak in price pressures has occurred.

OBSERVATION – more mixed signals, this time coming from the Fed. Same folks that concurred that inflation was only ‘transitory’ last year.

“Bond markets in general have begun to behave in a recession-signaling way,” market expert Adam Kobeissi told FOX Business. “For the first time all year, we are seeing bond prices up significantly while stocks fall, and this comes just one month after tech layoffs began.”

The author of the Kobeissi Letter, a weekly commentary on the global capital markets, noted tech companies have already laid off more than 20,000 employees, more than the total during the entire dot-com bubble.
“Right now, it’s almost damage control and it’s certainly an indicator of a negative outlook on the markets and the economy in general for 2023,” said Mina Tadrus, CEO of Tadrus Capital, a high-yielding and fixed-income quantitative hedge fund generating returns of 2.5% per month.
Once one company begins layoffs, it’s easier for others to follow, Tadrus told FOX Business: “It’s almost socially acceptable and everyone understands that.” Kobeissi expects corporations to feel recessionary pain into mid-2023 at a minimum.

OBSERVATION - More evidence of a nasty 2023 headed our way. Hearing more and more about large layoffs as companies position themselves to weather a serious recession.

Invasion of Illegals –

U.S. Justice Department has sued Arizona and Gov. Doug Ducey to stop that state’s plan to create a temporary border wall using double-stacked metal shipping containers. The “government argues the makeshift wall is illegal, dangerous, and interferes with federal duties,” the report said. Biden’s DOJ wants a judge to order the barrier removed – which will allow illegal aliens easier access.

OBSERVATION – Who didn’t see this coming from a mile away? And in a state of brain deadness, Gov.-elect Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, has suggested the containers instead be used for housing. SMH

BTW- Border patrol is forecasting massive influx of illegals once Title 42 restrictions bite the dust this week. As bad and record-breaking as 2022 has been, we ain’t seen nothing yet.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

The twits have been making much ado about Musk’s banning of some ‘kid’ who’s published every movement of Musk’s airplane saying its overt censorship. What the twits have quickly forgotten is that this kid also tried to extort Musk earlier this year for $50K or a Tesla to stop his tracking.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Continued republican infighting as the eGOP tries to establish dominance for the next session of congress and Romney’s niece tries to justify the waste at the RNC and faces calls for her ouster.

Standing by for the J6 ‘committee ‘ referral of Trump for prosecution on at least three items.

China –

Streets in major Chinese cities were eerily quiet on Sunday as people stayed home to protect themselves from a surge in COVID-19 cases that has hit urban centers from north to south.
China is in the first of an expected three waves of COVID cases this winter, according to the country’s chief epidemiologist, Wu Zunyou. Further waves will come as people follow the tradition of returning en masse to their home areas for the Lunar New Year holiday next month, he said.
Speaking at a conference in Beijing on Saturday, chief epidemiologist Wu of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention said the current outbreak would peak this winter and run in three waves for about three months, according to a state media report of his speech.
The first wave would run from mid-December through mid-January, largely in cities, before a second wave would start from late January to mid-February next year, triggered by the movement of people ahead of the week-long New Year holiday.
China will celebrate Lunar New Year starting on Jan. 21. The holiday normally sees hundreds of millions of people traveling home to spend time with family.
A third wave of cases would run from late February to mid-March as people returned to work after the holiday, Wu said.

OBSERVATION – All this to say that China’s economic engine will continue to sputter and spark for the near term. How severe the lockdowns will be depends on the govt maintaining the more relaxed zero-covid actions it shifted to following the protests a few weeks ago. This will ripple out to the global economy as more shortages and delays in products – and an increasingly uncertain oil market.

North/South Korea –

North Korea has fired two ballistic missiles towards the sea off the east coast of the Korean Peninsula, according to South Korean and Japanese officials.
South Korea’s Joint Chief of Staff said the launches occurred from the Tongchang-ri area in North Pyongan Province on Sunday morning but gave no further details.

The latest launches comes three days after Pyongyang said it tested a “high-thrust solid-fuel motor” engine, which experts said would allow quicker and more mobile launches of its ballistic missile arsenals. The test was overseen by Kim Jong Un.

OBSERVATION – NK continues to press for a reliable nuclear delivery system.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces continue to construct defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine at this time. There is evidence building that Russia is trying to play out the current Fall mud season’s break in Ukraine’s tempo to try to build up for an early 2023 offensive operation.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.

********

Logistics –
- It is being estimated that Russia is currently producing about 40 of its cruise missiles every month.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Relative quiet overnight, with the standard fighting by Ukraine towards Svatove and Kreminna and Russia Bahkmut and Donetsk.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove. Ukraine forces have increasingly surrounded Kreminna to the north and south.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk. Russia developing efforts to encircle Bahkmut by making advances to the north and south of the city.
Rumors of a split developing between Wagner Group and the Donetsk people’s army (Separatist) over the Bahkmut campaign.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR

Crimean front ———
Sporadic Russian artillery strikes on Kherson and vicinity.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory –
Explosions and smoke were reported in Belgorod, no details on target.

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Winter weather continues to drive most of the operations for both sides. Temperatures are still too warm to freeze the soil profile to permit any significant cross country mobility. Russia continues to throw more assets in support of Wagner Group’s efforts against Bakmut where Russian gains are almost measured in a few meters every day.

On a longer term, friction is rising between key forces fighting in the Donbas – Russian military, Wagner Group Mercenaries and Donetsk people’s army (separatists). In the political games in Moscow, Wager currently holds the best hand, leveraging its forces desperately needed by putin and linked to positive Russian milblogger support for its ‘victories’ around Bahkmut. The Russian MOD continues to be the whipping boy for all the failures the army has seen since the start of the war. There is an apparent loss of confidence by putin in his generals – played out in recent months by his dictating the war effort. Left out in large part are the separatists who lack the clout in Moscow and increasingly find themselves in the cross hairs of Wagner as a body pool to support their attacks into the meat grinder – at the loss of a more cohesive theatre battle plan. The Donetsk forces don’t like coming under the command of Wagner.

All this further resumes the resource war that crippled the Russia’s initial offensive in February. The Russia military has resolved some of that infighting through the appointment of generals in command of the overall theatre. The current Russian general in charge of the Ukraine operation is General Sergey Surovikin. However, he was the one in charge of the order to withdrawal from Kherson west of the Dnipir River, reeking abundance of abuse from the nationalist wing influencing putin. There are currently questions if Gen Valery Zaluzhny has replaced him, as of Dec 15th he’s been referred to as the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Bottom line is that a lot of the Russian strategic planning is being driven by Wagner Group – all to their PR advantage and prestige as the go to global mercenary group. They will have a big impact on any planning for a winter offensive by Russia.

Belarus -

RUMINT - Putin will persuade Lukashenka to make two concessions during his visit to Minsk According to experts, the Kremlin wants to use the Union State to establish Russian control over Belarus, as well as use this country for a new offensive against Ukraine.

OBSERVATION – Putin already essentially has control over Belarus. The big question is will his arm twisting of Lukashenka succeed in pulling Belarus forces into the Ukraine war directly (beyond the current logistical support). Such entry may trigger reasoning by Poland and the Baltic to launch their own military probes into Belarus - generating a serious escalation of the war.

Iran –

Protests continue, rising back to the levels of earlier weeks. Several dozen arrestees are facing execution by the regime for their participation in the protests.

Central / South America General-

U.S. State Department has reissued a Level 3 “Reconsider Travel” advisory for Peru. “Reconsider travel due to crime. Exercise increased caution due to civil unrest,” the State Department advisory reads. The warning is one step below the top “Level 4 Do Not Travel” advisory.

Misc of Note –

Warning for Freepers living in the Great Plains and the eastern half of the nation. The arctic blast coming this next week is has serious potential for weather mayhem and extremely cold temperatures. In my corner of the Redoubt low temperatures are approaching the -30 degree F range. Make sure you have alternative ways / plans to keep warm should you lose power or have a vehicle breakdown while traveling in the days before Christmas.

Winter is set to take a bite out of my corner of the Redoubt, with my home expecting to see -34 on Thursday morning and -22 on Friday morning. Then it will jump up to +40 on Saturday. That’s a 74 degree temperature flip – ah love it.

LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.

Also looking for what 2023 events you are most concerned about.

Globalism / Great Reset –

SUMMARY –

On Sunday morning, members of the European Parliament and the governments of the European Union reached an agreement to reform the Emissions Trading System (ETS) in order to increase investments in climate-friendly technology and further cut industrial emissions.
This means everyone in European Union countries will have to pay for CO2 emissions. The funds will then be used to tackle climate change.

“The European Union just introduced the first step of a personal carbon credit system. Every citizen will have to start paying for their carbon emissions in an effort to cut emissions by 55% by 2030.”

OBSERVATION – Europe is one of the most compliant regions in regards to the GGR/WEF directives on global warming. The citizens of those countries are already paying the price via astronomical energy prices (and shortages) and will now face paying more. Part of this implies monitoring induvial purchasing habits, such as buying gasoline or even heat/cooling adjustments at their homes (hello smart meters), which then adds the appropriate carbon ‘tax’ to the citizen’s ‘bill’. Wonderful method of social control as it merges into a common ESG card/identification that controls spending as well.

Europe is serving as the Beta-test and this will try to get to America as the leftist continue to attack to erode opposition to the globalist agendas.

Wuhan virus –

On the horizon, more rumblings about reinstating the mask requirement as well as redoubling efforts for people to get their 5th jab.

Economy –

The Department of Energy (DOE) announced a pilot purchase of three million barrels of sour crude oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

OBSERVATION – This is but a drop in the bucket, so to speak, given that biden drew approximately 270 million barrels with his bogus plan to drop oil prices.

Invasion of Illegals –

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit has denied a request from nineteen Republican-led states to delay the end of Title 42. Title 42 is scheduled to end next week and it will be one less tool available to those working along the southern border to control the historic numbers of migrants crossing the border.

With the end of Title 42, the worst will come and every state is a border state now. Illegal immigrants are being transported to the interior of the country, to all states, often in the middle of the night to obscure what is happening.

OBSERVATION – This is NOT due to incompetence of the biden regime, but a deliberate action.

Officials in the City of El Paso, Texas have declared a state of emergency as border crossings have overwhelmed law enforcement personnel.
Mayor Oscar Leeser announced the state of emergency during a press conference Saturday, saying he could no longer keep residents safe.
“I said from the beginning that I would call it when I felt that either our asylum seekers or community were not safe,” Leeser said, according to KFOX14.

OBSERVATION – Note to the mayor, this is only going to get worse.

IN RELATED- In preparation for the expiration of Title 42 next week, the Texas Military Department announced Dec. 16 that it would be mobilizing members of the Texas National Guard to combat the impending surge of illegal immigrants at the border.
“These actions are part of a larger strategy to use every available tool to fight backagainst the record-breaking level of illegal immigration and transnational criminal activity,” the department advised in a statement.
According to a DHS report from earlier this year, the Biden administration estimates that there may be up to 18,000 border crossings a day after Title 42 is lifted.
And recent events have done little to alleviate that concern. On Monday, El Paso, Texas, experienced one of the largest single crossings that area has ever seen when more than 1,500 people illegally crossed into the city from Mexico.
Further, in October, an average of nearly 13,000 illegal immigrants per week were apprehended in El Paso.

OBSERVATION – Hopefully Texas (and any other border state willing to step up to the bar) will aggressively turn back these illegals – and to heck what the courts say. When the full impact of the illegal tsunami hits the country, there may be larger push backs by states in direct confrontation of the federal non enforcement of the border.

Biden / Harris watch –

All in the matter of seconds, biden managed to
- Starts talking while facing away from his audience
- Insults those of Irish descent
- Fails to remember his wife’s maiden name.

OBSERVATION – I continue to be amazed that biden hasn’t been lead out of office for is skull full of mush. His handlers must have found some formula to keep him as a useful idiot front man for their efforts to over throw the republic.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Widely scattered Antifa supported protests.
Twitter’s removal of Antifa affiliated posters continues.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

On Sunday, Matt Taibbi, released a supplemental installment of the Twitter Files, detailing how the FBI pressured Twitter to find evidence of foreign influence on the platform, despite Twitter having said that what the FBI was looking for was not extant.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The House Select Committee investigating the 6 January 2021 protest at the Capitol will vote today on criminal referrals for at least three charges against Donald Trump, according to sources who spoke to Politico. The committee will also vote to approve its final report, which will be released 21 December.

OBSERVATION – Leftist pushing the envelope. How high will the DoJ jump in response to these ‘charges’? Remember, they are looking for an excuse to crack down on all the ‘domestic terrorists’

The fight for a new RNC chair is building and for the better. We need someone to reinforce success, not failure.

China –

According to a Reuters report based on sourcing from a collection of investment fund managers, wealthy Chinese are quickly moving money out of China and into foreign investments. The Chinese COVID-driven economy and uncertain geopolitical impacts of the Russia/Ukraine war and what could be a great power conflict over Taiwan are the primary factors. (FO)

OBSERVATION – Action doesn’t bode well for China’s limping economy. It is also an indicator that Chinese are concerned about a 2023 global recession and are seeking to place their money in safer hands to ride out the storm.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces continue to construct defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.

********

Putin arrived in Belarus as part of a continuation of the effort to get the country even more ‘involved’ in the Ukrainian war. The Belarussian leader is pro-Russia but most Belarussians are not and support Ukraine. Because of that, Belarus is unlikely to send troops into Ukraine but Belarussian ammo stocks and manufacturing capabilities are available and have been syphoned off in large quantities to support the Russian war effort.

NUKE WATCH -
Russia has today issued a fresh nuclear threat to the UK after loading a second huge missile into a silo near Moscow.
Footage released by state media shows the Yars rocket, which can be tipped with a nuclear warhead and range all of Europe and the mainland US, being loaded into the ground at the Kozelsky base, 160 miles south of Moscow.
It comes just a day after more footage showed another missile arriving at the same base and as a retired Russian general said Russia should prioritize striking London over Washington DC.

The Yars rocket is believed to be capable of carrying 6 targetable nuclear warheads with a range up to 7,300 miles.

OBSERVATION – Nuclear saber rattling PR. There are already about 173 of these mobile missile in existence. Also, there are stories of impending Russian nuclear forces readiness tests. Apart from the fear mongers, analysts looking at the announced tests indicate that these are normal, routine exercises with nothing appearing to be outside the parameters of past exercises.

Logistics –
- Much of Russia’s artillery / rockets are duds and don’t explode when they hit the ground because they are too old.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
Ukraine is preparing additional measures to protect the Rivne NPP due to the risk of an open invasion from Belarus. This region is in the northwestern portion of the nation opposite from where many Belarus/Russia training exercises have been taking place.
RUMINT –

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
In what appears to be becoming a repeating Monday morning event in Ukraine, Russia fired a bunch of Iranian made drones targeting primarily Kyiv. 30 of 35 Russian drones were shot down, however the five that got through did some damage to the city infrastructure.
Battles continue around Svatove, Kreminna, Bahkmut, and Donetsk. All with scattered artillery support.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove. Ukraine forces have increasingly surrounded Kreminna to the north and south.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk. Russia developing efforts to encircle Bahkmut by making advances to the north and south of the city.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR

Crimean front ———
NSR

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory –
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
More of the same. Russia attacks Bahkmut and Donetsk regions; Ukraine presses Svatove and Kreminna.

The overnight drone attacks (Monday AM Ukraine time) look to be developing into a routine.

More on the scuttle butt on a renewed drive on Kyiv. Russia has been pressuring Belarus intensely the last few days, with today’s visit by putin.
Russia arm twisting Belarus to enter the war in a more active way is unlikely to accomplish the desired goal. I’ve noted here that such an entry into the ground war could result in a coup against the pro-Russian Lukashenka. In general, the Belarus population is more pro-Ukraine than pro-Russian.
Much if not most of Belarus’ arms and armor reserves – if not most -has been taken by Russia. As I said before, this leaves the Belarus army in a world of hurt going into the Ukrainian meat grinder.

Now if Russia attempts to go it alone, they may be incrementally getting ready. Elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army—in principle the Russian military’s most elite heavy formation that could form the core of a strike force—are reportedly training in Belarus as of December 15. Hromov stated that elements of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army are training in Belarus. All maneuver elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army have taken heavy losses near Kharkiv, Sumy, and eastern Kyiv Oblast, making its “elite” status and effective combat power even after reconstitution with mobilized reservists and/or conscripts questionable.
Much of the Russia activity in Belarus has been in training these Russia mobilized conscripts the basics of war.

Russian forces are extremely unlikely to be more successful at attacking northern Ukraine in the winter of 2023 than they were in February 2022. Russia’s conventional forces are badly degraded and lack the combat power that they had when Russia attempted (and failed) its full-throated effort to capture Kyiv in February 2022. Russian forces have been unable to secure their gains across Ukraine and have lost over 70,000 square km of occupied territory since abandoning Kyiv. Russian forces in Bakhmut currently advance no more than 100-200 meters a day after concentrating their main efforts there. Russia has not established air superiority let alone air supremacy in Ukraine and has largely exhausted its precision-guided munitions arsenal. Ukrainian forces, for their part, have prepared significant defenses in northern Ukraine and are better prepared to defend now than they were in February 2022. The terrain near the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is not conducive to maneuver warfare and possible invasion routes from Belarus to Kyiv run through defensible chokepoints in the Chernobyl exclusion zone that Ukrainian forces now have experience defending.

In short, another Russian assault out of Belarus would be (as I said before) a Hail Mary pass most likely designed to drain manpower and support from the Donbas region where Russia is planning to strike the hardest. It would appear that Russia/putin is willing to kill off the 1 GTA once again if it allows for an advantage there.

NEAR TERM - Neither Russia, Belarus or a combination thereof are ready to take on Ukraine from the north. This may change as we enter the hard winter season when the ground is frozen. But even then it is questionable.

Belarus -

Putin arrived today for discussions with Lukashenka focusing on strategic partnership and integration relationships.

State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus said that the military units of the Armed Forces are in constant combat readiness

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

KFOR deployed in Jarinje, where right-wing Serbs are organizing a rally with the goal to “unblock crossing for Serbs from Kosovo and Metohija”

OBSERVATION – Pot is still boiling in N Kosovo

Central / South America General-

Peru’s new president, Dina Boluarte, announced that she is removing the Prime Minister after only a week in office. Boluarte said a number of shake ups in the government are the result of getting knowledgeable people in important cabinet positions. She did not announce who the new Prime Minister will be. The country remains embroiled in violent protests which have left over 20 people dead and the economy struggling in the world’s second largest copper producing country. (FO)

OBSERVATION – Copper is the lifeblood of the Peruvian economy as I’ve noted before with 10% of the global production. Leverage will be exerted on protestors in the region to calm it their protests down.

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