LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.
Also looking for what 2023 events you are most concerned about.
Wuhan virus –
A study titled “COVID Vaccine Hesitancy and Risk of a Traffic Crash,” published in the American Journal of Medicine, found a 72% higher rate of car accidents in the unvaccinated compared to the vaccinated
OBSERVATION - I initially chuckled at the study, most likely from cherry-picked data. I encountered a Yahoo article that made it clearer –
The findings are significant enough that primary care doctors should consider counseling unvaccinated patients on traffic safety—and insurance companies might base changes to insurance policies on vaccination data, the authors suggest.
Did you catch that? More social engineering designed to pressure the unjabbed to become jabbed. Note that this is likely a harbinger of other social engineering pressures designed to force compliance. They don’t want to give up the push for power.
Economy –
Cleveland Federal Reserve bank President Loretta Mester said on Friday that she believes the U.S. central bank will have to raise interest rates higher than the level most policy makers cited in their Fed forecasts this week.
Against the Fed’s projection that the current federal funds rate of between 4.25% and 4.5% will rise to 5.1% next year, Mester said, “I’m a little higher than the median.” She spoke on Bloomberg’s television channel.
“We need to continue to bring up interest rates into a restrictive stance,” Mester said recent inflation data pointing to moderating price increases is “good news.” But she added the data does not yet show that a peak in price pressures has occurred.
OBSERVATION – more mixed signals, this time coming from the Fed. Same folks that concurred that inflation was only ‘transitory’ last year.
“Bond markets in general have begun to behave in a recession-signaling way,” market expert Adam Kobeissi told FOX Business. “For the first time all year, we are seeing bond prices up significantly while stocks fall, and this comes just one month after tech layoffs began.”
The author of the Kobeissi Letter, a weekly commentary on the global capital markets, noted tech companies have already laid off more than 20,000 employees, more than the total during the entire dot-com bubble.
“Right now, it’s almost damage control and it’s certainly an indicator of a negative outlook on the markets and the economy in general for 2023,” said Mina Tadrus, CEO of Tadrus Capital, a high-yielding and fixed-income quantitative hedge fund generating returns of 2.5% per month.
Once one company begins layoffs, it’s easier for others to follow, Tadrus told FOX Business: “It’s almost socially acceptable and everyone understands that.” Kobeissi expects corporations to feel recessionary pain into mid-2023 at a minimum.
OBSERVATION - More evidence of a nasty 2023 headed our way. Hearing more and more about large layoffs as companies position themselves to weather a serious recession.
Invasion of Illegals –
U.S. Justice Department has sued Arizona and Gov. Doug Ducey to stop that state’s plan to create a temporary border wall using double-stacked metal shipping containers. The “government argues the makeshift wall is illegal, dangerous, and interferes with federal duties,” the report said. Biden’s DOJ wants a judge to order the barrier removed – which will allow illegal aliens easier access.
OBSERVATION – Who didn’t see this coming from a mile away? And in a state of brain deadness, Gov.-elect Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, has suggested the containers instead be used for housing. SMH
BTW- Border patrol is forecasting massive influx of illegals once Title 42 restrictions bite the dust this week. As bad and record-breaking as 2022 has been, we ain’t seen nothing yet.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
The twits have been making much ado about Musk’s banning of some ‘kid’ who’s published every movement of Musk’s airplane saying its overt censorship. What the twits have quickly forgotten is that this kid also tried to extort Musk earlier this year for $50K or a Tesla to stop his tracking.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Continued republican infighting as the eGOP tries to establish dominance for the next session of congress and Romney’s niece tries to justify the waste at the RNC and faces calls for her ouster.
Standing by for the J6 ‘committee ‘ referral of Trump for prosecution on at least three items.
China –
Streets in major Chinese cities were eerily quiet on Sunday as people stayed home to protect themselves from a surge in COVID-19 cases that has hit urban centers from north to south.
China is in the first of an expected three waves of COVID cases this winter, according to the country’s chief epidemiologist, Wu Zunyou. Further waves will come as people follow the tradition of returning en masse to their home areas for the Lunar New Year holiday next month, he said.
Speaking at a conference in Beijing on Saturday, chief epidemiologist Wu of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention said the current outbreak would peak this winter and run in three waves for about three months, according to a state media report of his speech.
The first wave would run from mid-December through mid-January, largely in cities, before a second wave would start from late January to mid-February next year, triggered by the movement of people ahead of the week-long New Year holiday.
China will celebrate Lunar New Year starting on Jan. 21. The holiday normally sees hundreds of millions of people traveling home to spend time with family.
A third wave of cases would run from late February to mid-March as people returned to work after the holiday, Wu said.
OBSERVATION – All this to say that China’s economic engine will continue to sputter and spark for the near term. How severe the lockdowns will be depends on the govt maintaining the more relaxed zero-covid actions it shifted to following the protests a few weeks ago. This will ripple out to the global economy as more shortages and delays in products – and an increasingly uncertain oil market.
North/South Korea –
North Korea has fired two ballistic missiles towards the sea off the east coast of the Korean Peninsula, according to South Korean and Japanese officials.
South Korea’s Joint Chief of Staff said the launches occurred from the Tongchang-ri area in North Pyongan Province on Sunday morning but gave no further details.
The latest launches comes three days after Pyongyang said it tested a “high-thrust solid-fuel motor” engine, which experts said would allow quicker and more mobile launches of its ballistic missile arsenals. The test was overseen by Kim Jong Un.
OBSERVATION – NK continues to press for a reliable nuclear delivery system.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces continue to construct defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine at this time. There is evidence building that Russia is trying to play out the current Fall mud season’s break in Ukraine’s tempo to try to build up for an early 2023 offensive operation.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
Logistics –
- It is being estimated that Russia is currently producing about 40 of its cruise missiles every month.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Relative quiet overnight, with the standard fighting by Ukraine towards Svatove and Kreminna and Russia Bahkmut and Donetsk.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove. Ukraine forces have increasingly surrounded Kreminna to the north and south.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk. Russia developing efforts to encircle Bahkmut by making advances to the north and south of the city.
Rumors of a split developing between Wagner Group and the Donetsk people’s army (Separatist) over the Bahkmut campaign.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
Sporadic Russian artillery strikes on Kherson and vicinity.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory –
Explosions and smoke were reported in Belgorod, no details on target.
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Winter weather continues to drive most of the operations for both sides. Temperatures are still too warm to freeze the soil profile to permit any significant cross country mobility. Russia continues to throw more assets in support of Wagner Group’s efforts against Bakmut where Russian gains are almost measured in a few meters every day.
On a longer term, friction is rising between key forces fighting in the Donbas – Russian military, Wagner Group Mercenaries and Donetsk people’s army (separatists). In the political games in Moscow, Wager currently holds the best hand, leveraging its forces desperately needed by putin and linked to positive Russian milblogger support for its ‘victories’ around Bahkmut. The Russian MOD continues to be the whipping boy for all the failures the army has seen since the start of the war. There is an apparent loss of confidence by putin in his generals – played out in recent months by his dictating the war effort. Left out in large part are the separatists who lack the clout in Moscow and increasingly find themselves in the cross hairs of Wagner as a body pool to support their attacks into the meat grinder – at the loss of a more cohesive theatre battle plan. The Donetsk forces don’t like coming under the command of Wagner.
All this further resumes the resource war that crippled the Russia’s initial offensive in February. The Russia military has resolved some of that infighting through the appointment of generals in command of the overall theatre. The current Russian general in charge of the Ukraine operation is General Sergey Surovikin. However, he was the one in charge of the order to withdrawal from Kherson west of the Dnipir River, reeking abundance of abuse from the nationalist wing influencing putin. There are currently questions if Gen Valery Zaluzhny has replaced him, as of Dec 15th he’s been referred to as the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Bottom line is that a lot of the Russian strategic planning is being driven by Wagner Group – all to their PR advantage and prestige as the go to global mercenary group. They will have a big impact on any planning for a winter offensive by Russia.
Belarus -
RUMINT - Putin will persuade Lukashenka to make two concessions during his visit to Minsk According to experts, the Kremlin wants to use the Union State to establish Russian control over Belarus, as well as use this country for a new offensive against Ukraine.
OBSERVATION – Putin already essentially has control over Belarus. The big question is will his arm twisting of Lukashenka succeed in pulling Belarus forces into the Ukraine war directly (beyond the current logistical support). Such entry may trigger reasoning by Poland and the Baltic to launch their own military probes into Belarus - generating a serious escalation of the war.
Iran –
Protests continue, rising back to the levels of earlier weeks. Several dozen arrestees are facing execution by the regime for their participation in the protests.
Central / South America General-
U.S. State Department has reissued a Level 3 “Reconsider Travel” advisory for Peru. “Reconsider travel due to crime. Exercise increased caution due to civil unrest,” the State Department advisory reads. The warning is one step below the top “Level 4 Do Not Travel” advisory.
Misc of Note –
Warning for Freepers living in the Great Plains and the eastern half of the nation. The arctic blast coming this next week is has serious potential for weather mayhem and extremely cold temperatures. In my corner of the Redoubt low temperatures are approaching the -30 degree F range. Make sure you have alternative ways / plans to keep warm should you lose power or have a vehicle breakdown while traveling in the days before Christmas.
Winter is set to take a bite out of my corner of the Redoubt, with my home expecting to see -34 on Thursday morning and -22 on Friday morning. Then it will jump up to +40 on Saturday. That’s a 74 degree temperature flip – ah love it.
LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.
Also looking for what 2023 events you are most concerned about.
Globalism / Great Reset –
SUMMARY –
On Sunday morning, members of the European Parliament and the governments of the European Union reached an agreement to reform the Emissions Trading System (ETS) in order to increase investments in climate-friendly technology and further cut industrial emissions.
This means everyone in European Union countries will have to pay for CO2 emissions. The funds will then be used to tackle climate change.
“The European Union just introduced the first step of a personal carbon credit system. Every citizen will have to start paying for their carbon emissions in an effort to cut emissions by 55% by 2030.”
OBSERVATION – Europe is one of the most compliant regions in regards to the GGR/WEF directives on global warming. The citizens of those countries are already paying the price via astronomical energy prices (and shortages) and will now face paying more. Part of this implies monitoring induvial purchasing habits, such as buying gasoline or even heat/cooling adjustments at their homes (hello smart meters), which then adds the appropriate carbon ‘tax’ to the citizen’s ‘bill’. Wonderful method of social control as it merges into a common ESG card/identification that controls spending as well.
Europe is serving as the Beta-test and this will try to get to America as the leftist continue to attack to erode opposition to the globalist agendas.
Wuhan virus –
On the horizon, more rumblings about reinstating the mask requirement as well as redoubling efforts for people to get their 5th jab.
Economy –
The Department of Energy (DOE) announced a pilot purchase of three million barrels of sour crude oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
OBSERVATION – This is but a drop in the bucket, so to speak, given that biden drew approximately 270 million barrels with his bogus plan to drop oil prices.
Invasion of Illegals –
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit has denied a request from nineteen Republican-led states to delay the end of Title 42. Title 42 is scheduled to end next week and it will be one less tool available to those working along the southern border to control the historic numbers of migrants crossing the border.
With the end of Title 42, the worst will come and every state is a border state now. Illegal immigrants are being transported to the interior of the country, to all states, often in the middle of the night to obscure what is happening.
OBSERVATION – This is NOT due to incompetence of the biden regime, but a deliberate action.
Officials in the City of El Paso, Texas have declared a state of emergency as border crossings have overwhelmed law enforcement personnel.
Mayor Oscar Leeser announced the state of emergency during a press conference Saturday, saying he could no longer keep residents safe.
“I said from the beginning that I would call it when I felt that either our asylum seekers or community were not safe,” Leeser said, according to KFOX14.
OBSERVATION – Note to the mayor, this is only going to get worse.
IN RELATED- In preparation for the expiration of Title 42 next week, the Texas Military Department announced Dec. 16 that it would be mobilizing members of the Texas National Guard to combat the impending surge of illegal immigrants at the border.
“These actions are part of a larger strategy to use every available tool to fight backagainst the record-breaking level of illegal immigration and transnational criminal activity,” the department advised in a statement.
According to a DHS report from earlier this year, the Biden administration estimates that there may be up to 18,000 border crossings a day after Title 42 is lifted.
And recent events have done little to alleviate that concern. On Monday, El Paso, Texas, experienced one of the largest single crossings that area has ever seen when more than 1,500 people illegally crossed into the city from Mexico.
Further, in October, an average of nearly 13,000 illegal immigrants per week were apprehended in El Paso.
OBSERVATION – Hopefully Texas (and any other border state willing to step up to the bar) will aggressively turn back these illegals – and to heck what the courts say. When the full impact of the illegal tsunami hits the country, there may be larger push backs by states in direct confrontation of the federal non enforcement of the border.
Biden / Harris watch –
All in the matter of seconds, biden managed to
- Starts talking while facing away from his audience
- Insults those of Irish descent
- Fails to remember his wife’s maiden name.
OBSERVATION – I continue to be amazed that biden hasn’t been lead out of office for is skull full of mush. His handlers must have found some formula to keep him as a useful idiot front man for their efforts to over throw the republic.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Widely scattered Antifa supported protests.
Twitter’s removal of Antifa affiliated posters continues.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
On Sunday, Matt Taibbi, released a supplemental installment of the Twitter Files, detailing how the FBI pressured Twitter to find evidence of foreign influence on the platform, despite Twitter having said that what the FBI was looking for was not extant.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The House Select Committee investigating the 6 January 2021 protest at the Capitol will vote today on criminal referrals for at least three charges against Donald Trump, according to sources who spoke to Politico. The committee will also vote to approve its final report, which will be released 21 December.
OBSERVATION – Leftist pushing the envelope. How high will the DoJ jump in response to these ‘charges’? Remember, they are looking for an excuse to crack down on all the ‘domestic terrorists’
The fight for a new RNC chair is building and for the better. We need someone to reinforce success, not failure.
China –
According to a Reuters report based on sourcing from a collection of investment fund managers, wealthy Chinese are quickly moving money out of China and into foreign investments. The Chinese COVID-driven economy and uncertain geopolitical impacts of the Russia/Ukraine war and what could be a great power conflict over Taiwan are the primary factors. (FO)
OBSERVATION – Action doesn’t bode well for China’s limping economy. It is also an indicator that Chinese are concerned about a 2023 global recession and are seeking to place their money in safer hands to ride out the storm.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces continue to construct defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine at this time. There is evidence building that Russia is trying to play out the current Fall mud season’s break in Ukraine’s tempo to try to build up for an early 2023 offensive operation.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
Putin arrived in Belarus as part of a continuation of the effort to get the country even more ‘involved’ in the Ukrainian war. The Belarussian leader is pro-Russia but most Belarussians are not and support Ukraine. Because of that, Belarus is unlikely to send troops into Ukraine but Belarussian ammo stocks and manufacturing capabilities are available and have been syphoned off in large quantities to support the Russian war effort.
NUKE WATCH -
Russia has today issued a fresh nuclear threat to the UK after loading a second huge missile into a silo near Moscow.
Footage released by state media shows the Yars rocket, which can be tipped with a nuclear warhead and range all of Europe and the mainland US, being loaded into the ground at the Kozelsky base, 160 miles south of Moscow.
It comes just a day after more footage showed another missile arriving at the same base and as a retired Russian general said Russia should prioritize striking London over Washington DC.
The Yars rocket is believed to be capable of carrying 6 targetable nuclear warheads with a range up to 7,300 miles.
OBSERVATION – Nuclear saber rattling PR. There are already about 173 of these mobile missile in existence. Also, there are stories of impending Russian nuclear forces readiness tests. Apart from the fear mongers, analysts looking at the announced tests indicate that these are normal, routine exercises with nothing appearing to be outside the parameters of past exercises.
Logistics –
- Much of Russia’s artillery / rockets are duds and don’t explode when they hit the ground because they are too old.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
Ukraine is preparing additional measures to protect the Rivne NPP due to the risk of an open invasion from Belarus. This region is in the northwestern portion of the nation opposite from where many Belarus/Russia training exercises have been taking place.
RUMINT –
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
In what appears to be becoming a repeating Monday morning event in Ukraine, Russia fired a bunch of Iranian made drones targeting primarily Kyiv. 30 of 35 Russian drones were shot down, however the five that got through did some damage to the city infrastructure.
Battles continue around Svatove, Kreminna, Bahkmut, and Donetsk. All with scattered artillery support.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove. Ukraine forces have increasingly surrounded Kreminna to the north and south.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk. Russia developing efforts to encircle Bahkmut by making advances to the north and south of the city.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
NSR
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory –
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
More of the same. Russia attacks Bahkmut and Donetsk regions; Ukraine presses Svatove and Kreminna.
The overnight drone attacks (Monday AM Ukraine time) look to be developing into a routine.
More on the scuttle butt on a renewed drive on Kyiv. Russia has been pressuring Belarus intensely the last few days, with today’s visit by putin.
Russia arm twisting Belarus to enter the war in a more active way is unlikely to accomplish the desired goal. I’ve noted here that such an entry into the ground war could result in a coup against the pro-Russian Lukashenka. In general, the Belarus population is more pro-Ukraine than pro-Russian.
Much if not most of Belarus’ arms and armor reserves – if not most -has been taken by Russia. As I said before, this leaves the Belarus army in a world of hurt going into the Ukrainian meat grinder.
Now if Russia attempts to go it alone, they may be incrementally getting ready. Elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army—in principle the Russian military’s most elite heavy formation that could form the core of a strike force—are reportedly training in Belarus as of December 15. Hromov stated that elements of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army are training in Belarus. All maneuver elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army have taken heavy losses near Kharkiv, Sumy, and eastern Kyiv Oblast, making its “elite” status and effective combat power even after reconstitution with mobilized reservists and/or conscripts questionable.
Much of the Russia activity in Belarus has been in training these Russia mobilized conscripts the basics of war.
Russian forces are extremely unlikely to be more successful at attacking northern Ukraine in the winter of 2023 than they were in February 2022. Russia’s conventional forces are badly degraded and lack the combat power that they had when Russia attempted (and failed) its full-throated effort to capture Kyiv in February 2022. Russian forces have been unable to secure their gains across Ukraine and have lost over 70,000 square km of occupied territory since abandoning Kyiv. Russian forces in Bakhmut currently advance no more than 100-200 meters a day after concentrating their main efforts there. Russia has not established air superiority let alone air supremacy in Ukraine and has largely exhausted its precision-guided munitions arsenal. Ukrainian forces, for their part, have prepared significant defenses in northern Ukraine and are better prepared to defend now than they were in February 2022. The terrain near the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is not conducive to maneuver warfare and possible invasion routes from Belarus to Kyiv run through defensible chokepoints in the Chernobyl exclusion zone that Ukrainian forces now have experience defending.
In short, another Russian assault out of Belarus would be (as I said before) a Hail Mary pass most likely designed to drain manpower and support from the Donbas region where Russia is planning to strike the hardest. It would appear that Russia/putin is willing to kill off the 1 GTA once again if it allows for an advantage there.
NEAR TERM - Neither Russia, Belarus or a combination thereof are ready to take on Ukraine from the north. This may change as we enter the hard winter season when the ground is frozen. But even then it is questionable.
Belarus -
Putin arrived today for discussions with Lukashenka focusing on strategic partnership and integration relationships.
State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus said that the military units of the Armed Forces are in constant combat readiness
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
KFOR deployed in Jarinje, where right-wing Serbs are organizing a rally with the goal to “unblock crossing for Serbs from Kosovo and Metohija”
OBSERVATION – Pot is still boiling in N Kosovo
Central / South America General-
Peru’s new president, Dina Boluarte, announced that she is removing the Prime Minister after only a week in office. Boluarte said a number of shake ups in the government are the result of getting knowledgeable people in important cabinet positions. She did not announce who the new Prime Minister will be. The country remains embroiled in violent protests which have left over 20 people dead and the economy struggling in the world’s second largest copper producing country. (FO)
OBSERVATION – Copper is the lifeblood of the Peruvian economy as I’ve noted before with 10% of the global production. Leverage will be exerted on protestors in the region to calm it their protests down.