LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.
Also looking for what 2023 events you are most concerned about.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Recently circulated videos of a 2022 meeting of the Wisconsin chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) show an executive of the national organization stating that children who receive puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones “probably will be infertile.”
In a clip of a virtual meeting, which was posted on Twitter this week by Libs of TikTok, Dr. Kathryn Lowe addressed “infertility concerns” related to so-called transgender hormone use.
“The big thing is, here, the infertility concerns with starting gender affirming hormone therapy,” Lowe said in the video. “For kids who go on a blocker at tanner stage two, and then they add in gender affirming hormone therapy — there isn’t a lot of research about this out there — but what we do know is these kids probably will be infertile.”
Lowe is a board-certified pediatrician and member of the executive committee of the AAP Section on LGBT Health and Wellness, according to the AAP website.
OBSERVATION – Global depopulation is a stated goal of GGR/WEF. It can arguably be said that the Pfizer/Modena jabs are a component of that effort to depopulate given the direct deaths from the jabs, plus the alarming rate of ‘excess deaths’ now being recorded globally. Another avenue is to go after children. The jab is pretty well documented in causing spontaneous miscarriages and other reproductive problems. But the latest, demonically inspired insanity is the huge push by transgenderists to transition our children. Not only will the blockers cause sterility, but the literal removal of sex organs as well.
This is all part of a multifaceted effort to cull half the world’s population as stated by WEF adherents. Other parts include food and power restrictions.
Economy –
Item buried the MSM when reporting the latest inflation figures are the skyrocketing food prices. The price of vegetables from producers shot up 38% on a monthly basis in November — and jumped over 80% compared to November 2021 — according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics latest Producer Price Index. The drought in kalifornia has been a major driver in the price of vegetables.
The price of eggs shot up 26 percent last month. And over the past 12 months the price of eggs is up an astounding 244 percent.
And food supplies are expected to get even tighter in 2023. U.S. domestic supplies of key crops including corn, soybeans and wheat are expected to remain snug into 2023, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The agency is forecasting U.S. corn supplies to fall to a decade low before the 2023 harvest, while soybean stocks were seen at a seven-year low and wheat ending stocks are forecast at the lowest in 15 years.
The outlook for wheat is bad as well. The two largest wheat exporters in the world are projected to have very disappointing harvests in the months ahead.
Flooding in Australia, the world’s second largest wheat exporter, in recent weeks has caused extensive damage to the crop which was ready for harvest, a severe drought is expected shrink Argentina’s wheat crop by almost 40%. This will reduce global wheat availability in the first half of 2023.
A lack of rainfall in the U.S. Plains, where the winter crop ratings are running at the lowest since 2012, could dent supplies for the second half of the year.
The war in Ukraine also will impact grain crops / exports in 2023, adding to the woes.
OBSERVATION – There appears to be no relief in the near term for food supplies and prices. It should be clear that when lack of fertilizer and high fuel costs are factored in, our food supply is become increasingly endangered. If our food supply is in danger, the global situation is becoming equally grim.
No level of Fed rate increase can lower these costs, but will only increase them as farmers/ranchers will be priced out of short term loans.
Invasion of Illegals –
Twenty GOP House members who want to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas dialed up their pressure Tuesday on House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., at a press conference with three former DHS officials, The Hill reported.
OBSERVATION – eGOP are reluctant to go after Mayorkas, rather sit on their status quo and let him go unpunished. I expect to see some poorly covered congressional hearings and not much more than that.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Radical transgenderism (backed by Antifa’s muscle) is ascendent as the year ends and with the defense of marriage act will become even more malignant and dangerous.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
With 5 twitter file drops, still waiting to see what the next will bring.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Democrats introduced a bill Tuesday known as the “Identifying Mass Shooters Act” that will direct the National Institute of Justice to collect, study and analyze online content to identify potential mass shooters before they act, according to a copy of the bill obtained by the Daily Caller News Foundation.
The bill, introduced by Democratic Maryland Rep. Kweisi Mfume along with several other Democrats, will require the director of the NIJ to create and submit a report to Congress detailing the “content patterns” of mass shooters within two years of the legislation’s enactment. The bill claims that existing oversight and accountability measures for social media platforms produce an environment that fosters hate speech, extremism, radicalization, and violence.”
OBSERVATION – this bill is hard to categorize. It is a trojan horse in that you have to remember democrats/leftists have defined your average, white American as a domestic terrorist who are trigger prone to commit violence. They will use this bill to justify further collection of intel on half of America who didn’t vote for biden. According to the left –“ an environment that fosters hate speech, extremism, radicalization, and violence.” covers a wide swath of the American people. Thus if you post about shooting, the constitution, opposition to golden cows of the left (LGBT, CRT, etc) et al, you will be targeted for action.
The House is scheduled to consider HR 1437 as a legislative vehicle for a one-week Continuing Resolution.
OBSERVATION - Looks like the democrats wont get their full one year CR and are having to maneuver for a shorter term.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Increasing likelihood that Patriot units, manned by Ukranians , may soon be on the way to Ukraine, following training of crews in Germany.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are constructing defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.
It is only capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
According to a report from Reuters, Russia on Tuesday dismissed a peace proposal from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that would involve a pullout of Russian troops, saying Kyiv needed to accept new territorial “realities.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said those realities included Russia’s addition of four Ukrainian territories in September following public referendums in the regions. Since the annexations, Russia has lost significant ground in the south and east of Ukraine and has spoken more frequently of its willingness to hold peace talks. But it says it does not see Ukraine and the West, which is supplying Kyiv with weapons, as ready to negotiate. (FO)
RUMINT – A major flu outbreak has hit Kremlin and could force Russian President Vladimir Putin into isolation in a bunker, a report in Metro said.
The development comes a day after officials announced that Mr Putin will not hold his annual end-of-year press conference this year. Since Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov gave no reason or the break with tradition, several outlets are claiming that it has been done due to health issues Mr Putin is facing. After Russia launched its offensive against Ukraine in February this year, there has been a renewed focus on Mr Putin’s health.
“Yes, this year, flu came to stay. The most unpleasant thing in this situation that it is precisely the flu variant which causes the most serious damage to health. This is the flu A virus (H1N1) of the pandemic year of 2009. In 2009, it emerged for the first time as a type of flu with high spread potential and triggered the 2009-2020 pandemic,” she said in an interview with the Rossiya-1 TV channel.
Metro said Russian officials are keeping the President away from people in the wake of the spread of this infectious disease. It added that Mr Putin is expected to abandon his address to the Upper House of Russian Parliament as many officials are affected by flu.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia continues to make minor gains around Bakhmut, but at a high cost of men and material. Actions along the rest of the front have dropped down a notch, likely due to inclement weather.
Russia launched another round of drone attacks, targeting primarily Kyiv. Reportedly all drones were shot down but it appears they may have missed one. Other missile/drones hit Kherson.
In the face of increasing missile/drone attacks, reports are that biden is having final preparations made to deploy Patriot ADA systems in Ukraine. Will discuss implications more below in OUTLOOK.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
Sporadic Russian artillery strikes on Kherson and vicinity. There are reports that Russia is pulling units back from the east (south) bank of the Dnipir River to constructed fortifications further east.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory –
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
Ukrainian partisans conducted an assassination attempt against Kherson Oblast occupation Deputy Head Vitaly Bulyuk in his car in Skadovsk, Kherson Oblast on December 12.
OUTLOOK ——
Tactically, no significant change in the near future, with Russia continuing it push to capture Bahkmut.
On a more ‘stratigic’ level, the probable introduction of state-of-the-art Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine would be a mixed bag of nuts IMHO
The system is among the most advanced in the world and is usually in short supply. Due to its long-range capability it could potentially shoot down Russian missiles and drones before they come within range of Ukrainian cities. Russia would likely view any attempt to arm Ukraine with Patriot defences as an escalation. Former president Dmitry Medvedev - who is now deputy chairman of the national security council - warned against the move last month.
But unlike Ukraine’s existing air defense systems, Patriot systems require large crews to operate them, and it could take several months to train Kyiv’s forces to use it effectively.
Now, lets take a closer look at the capabilities of the system and is it a match to the threat Russia is presenting. More and more it appears that Russia’s game plan is to hit Ukraine with swarms of relatively cheap Iranian drones. It appears to be saving its missiles for other key targets, given their short supply. The Patriot system has proven effectiveness against short ranged ballistic missile systems – improving a lot since the Desert Shield/Storm days.
Patriot is good against aircraft and ballistic missiles. Most aircraft are not the problem for Ukraine since Russia has epically failed in establishing air superiority and struggles to provide local close air support (and taking losses from Manpad systems). Ukranian S300’s have been used to good effect against most Russian ballistic missiles – a target Patriot could help improve upon. This threat increases with the likelihood that Iran will supply copious amounts of ballistic missiles to Russia in the near future.
But the bigger developing threat is coming from the swarms of Iranian drones that are being launched in mass to locally overwhelm air defenses to enable some to reach their target. These drones are relatively cheap compared to the far more expensive Patriot missiles and likely harder to target due to their very low flying profile. So far Ukraine has had good success against the drones using standard bullet style ADA (like the German Gephard) and manpads. So a much more abundant, cheaper system may be better to deploy in mass.
A defense system not on the table that is designed to handle mass attacks is Israel’s Iron Dome system – with more cost effective missiles and system capable of engaging the high numbers of drones to be expected.
IMHO, the Patriot system is more a shiny object than practical means of addressing Russia’s recent drone/missile barrages. The better way would be reinforce existing success and give Ukraine longer range systems to put the hurt back on Russia.
Belarus -
Noted yesterday, Lukashenko ordered a snap comprehensive readiness check of the Belarusian military on December 13. The exercise does not appear to be cover for concentrating Belarusian and/or Russian forces near jumping-off positions for an invasion of Ukraine.
Rather, it involves Belarusian elements deploying to training grounds across Belarus, conducting engineering tasks, and practicing crossing the Neman and Berezina rivers (which are over 170 km and 70 km away from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, respectively).
Most activity is in the southwestern corner of Belarus. IF an invasion were to start (again, highly doubtful at this stage) a likely target would be the transportation/logistical hub of Lviv.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
President Osmani, PM Kurti and Speaker Konjufca signed Kosovo’s application for EU membership. To be sent tomorrow in Brussels
OBSERVATION – Some look at the application for EU membership as another reason Serbia is causing so much trouble with Kosovo - as a way to deter EU states from endorsing the application under threat of war.
Iran –
Protests continue.
Lebanon -
Lebanon has suffered growing economic decline and political chaos since 2019. Lebanese consider Iran the major cause and that makes Hezbollah less popular and effective. Israel has taken advantage of that by hiring more Lebanese to act as informants or agents. These jobs pay well and, for exceptional performers, it is possible to gain residence in Israel if the agent is under suspicion and at risk of arrest. Israel has used this program for decades but the number of agents was usually quite low. In times of great chaos in Lebanon, Israel expanded its network, then gradually reduced it as the situation in Lebanon calmed down. Iran has been a major disruptive force in Lebanon for two decades and is now hated more than Israel or Syria.
OBSERVATION - This in part, has struck fear in Hezbollah – local informants tipping off Israel to concealed facilities and going as far as to even openly oppose Hezbollah activities. Israel HUMINT is next to none in the region.
MORE RELATED - The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on Sunday that the Lebanese based Hezbollah terror group had transferred arms and redeployed militants in from military posts near Damascus and the eastern desert of Homs.
According to SOHR sources, Hezbollah transported weapons and ammunition from its military positions to more heavily fortified warehouses out of fear of potential Israeli attacks in the region.
OBSERVATION – Mosad is probably on this like white on rice. If Israel wants to reach out and touch these relocated weapons they can and will.
Syria -
The United States has resumed full patrols in northern Syria with Syrian Democratic Forces following airstrikes by Turkey in the region, The Jerusalem Post reported Tuesday, citing the Pentagon.
The Washington Post also reported Tuesday the patrols will be expanded.
The U.S. reduced its maneuvers with the SDF following airstrikes by Turkey into northern Syria in response to a bombing Nov. 13 on a busy Istanbul street that killed at least six and wounded dozens more.
OBSERVATION – Turkey may pause their attacks in Kurdish Syria and Iraq out of concern of US forces are present, but this may just cause them to shift more solidly towards a ground game vs air/artillery strikes .
Turkey -
President Erdogan claimed that a recent Turkish ballistic missile test had scared Greece. Erdogan once again accused Greece of militarily reinforcing its islands in the Aegean Sea. The test Erdogan referred to is most likely the October 18 test launch of a Tayfun short-range ballistic missile. The missile has an estimated range of 600 kilometers and was launched from a mobile launcher located on a military base in (northern Turkey, east of Trabzon. The missile flew west, and struck the sea near the Black Sea port of Sinop (east of Istanbul). Turkey said the impact point was 561 kilometers from the launcher. The missile is another example of Turkey’s ability to produce sophisticated modern weapons.
OBSERVATION – Turkey seems to be picking a lot of fights lately. Threats against Greece have been some of the longest standing boils on the rear end of NATO for decades now. Not sure if Erdogan is willing to actually pull the trigger against Greece yet as he would find himself isolated from NATO with only Russia as a possible ally. Turkey is also experiencing massive inflation – nearly at the 100% level, making the inclination to pick a fight to unify the country even more alluring.
Central / South America General-
Pro Bolsonaro protests in Brasilia, Brazil continued yesterday after multiple vehicles were burned in the Brazilian capital yesterday. Some observers note that the size and intensity of these protests are growing.
Late Monday night, Bolsonaro supporters attempted to enter the Federal Police headquarters in Brasilia to free one of their imprisoned leaders. Police arrested José Acácio Serere Xavante for accusations of “anti-democratic acts” and inciting a riot to prevent President-elect Lula de Silva from taking office.
OBSERVATION – Rumors that the military has already moved to Bolsonaro’s side in the dispute, but haven’t moved on the govt yet.
Misc of Note -
A baby formula launched in March to fill in for the shortage in America has issued a recall. A dangerous bacteria was found in its products. It is the same bacteria found in an Abbott plant this year.
The irony is obvious. The baby formula brand, ByHeart, that was created to help ease the shortage now finds itself destroying two days’ worth of product. A third-party testing company found formula contaminated with Cronobacter sakazakil.
Based in Reading, Pennsylvania, ByHeart finds itself recalling five batches of its formula. Fortunately, none of the affected products have been distributed to the public. The bacteria lives in very dry places. It can contaminate dry foods like formula, powdered milk, and herbal teas. Complications are deadly, like sepsis and meningitis, if the bacteria is ingested.
OBSERVATION – The US has become less than a third world country in regards to baby formula.
Control the language, control the debate.
It's gender denying hormone therapy!
Thanks, Godzilla!!
Lotta work!!
LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.
Also looking for what 2023 events you are most concerned about.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The United Kingdom is preparing to introduce the digital pound backed by the Bank of England (BoE), essentially making the idea of a trackable central bank digital currency (CBDC) a reality.
British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt confirmed this, adding that the BoE will begin consultations for the CBDC’s design. The digital pound sterling formed part of his “Edinburgh Reforms” that sought to overhaul the U.K.’s financial services.
“[The government will begin] bringing forward a consultation in the coming weeks to explore the case for a CBDC – a sovereign digital pound – and consult on a potential design. The BoE will also release a technology working paper setting out cutting-edge technology considerations informing the potential build of a digital pound,” Hunt wrote in a statement to the British Parliament.
OBSERVATION – Some try to claim that the WEF has no influence or control over the world’s governments. Yet are at a loss to explain why globally these countries are falling lock step into the stated plans and objectives of the WEF. CBDCs are but a progressive step towards the overall controlling identity cards that will eventually incorporate programmed financial access (CBDCs), Environmental and social compliance scoring. Most likely linked to a biometric identifier.
RELATED - According to a 12 December press release, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rolled out the retail version of their Central Bank Digital Currency on 01 December. One of the official motivations behind the move is easier access to cross-border transactions. Indian media is currently pushing the narrative that this will make the rupee less dependent on the dollar for international trade.
OBSERVATION – I’m expecting the move to CBDC to accelerate further in 2023.
Wuhan virus –
The U.S. is currently recording around 430 Covid deaths per day, on average, according to NBC News’ tally. That includes many people who received at least two Covid shots: Six in 10 adults who died of Covid in August were vaccinated or boosted, according to a report by KFF, a nonprofit health think tank. And for the most part, vaccinated people don’t avoid infections or reinfections anymore.
OBSERVATION – Yet the Branch Covidians are still pushing the jab – even though they know it doesn’t work and worse – is likely more dangerous than the virus itself.
A Rasmussen Reports poll from Wednesday reveals that more than two-thirds of the country would favor “a full-throated” investigation into the origin of the COVID-19 virus, along with the role Dr. Anthony Fauci — the White House’s leading epidemiologist — might have played in the release of the coronavirus.
According to the survey, 72% said they agreed with Congress conducting a detailed investigation into the virus’s starting point. They also believe Fauci should be called in to testify.
OBSERVATION – Reality is any investigation will be buried by the MSM and will result in no accountability – just a lot of chest thumping by all sides.
News coming from Judicial Watch indicates that it had obtained records from a FOIA lawsuit against the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Disease.
Judicial Watch said that the records contained information regarding data Moderna submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on its mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, which indicate a “statistically significant” number of rats were born with skeletal deformations after their mothers were injected with the vaccine. The documents also reveal Moderna elected not to conduct a number of standard pharmacological studies on the laboratory test animals.
Moderna submitted a Nonclinical Overview to the FDA to have its vaccine approved. Included in that overview was information that rats born to mothers that had been given the mRNA vaccine had skeletal abnormalities that included conditions such as “rib nodules” and “wavy ribs.” Moderna said the conditions were not considered “adverse.”
Whether or not this is significant for pregnant mothers who took the jab more than likely remains to be seen. In October of this year, the CDC said that COVID-19 vaccines were recommended for people six months and older, including pregnant and nursing mothers and women who are trying to become pregnant. According to the agency, getting COVID-19 could result in complications that could affect pregnancy and a baby’s development.
The point is that Moderna should have told us about the issue with the bone problems in the rats, and the FDA and CDC certainly should have told us. I believe that is called allowing people to make informed decisions about their bodies. And last I checked, that was a very important issue for many.
OBSERVATION – More to the growing evidence pile of fraud committed by Moderna and the medical community.
Economy –
As expected, the Fed voted to raise the bank’s baseline interest rate by 0.5%, a step down from previous increases of 0.75%.
The Fed said it will continue hiking rates through 2023 and projected its fed funds rate to peak at a higher-than-expected 5.1%. With Wednesday’s half a percentage point hike, the targeted range for rates is currently 4.25% to 4.5%, the highest in 15 years.
OBSERVATION – This continues the watch over the economy if this plan is carried out. How much damage will these rate increases have to the economy. Already, the Fed is planning for a 5+% unemployment rate this summer as a result of its actions and has considered the housing market “collateral damage”. I think much of the ‘soft landing ‘ rhetoric is just their efforts to whistle past the graveyard.
According to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), roughly 20 million households in the U.S. — one out of six homes — are behind on their utility bills. As of August, these families owe about $16.1 billion in total, with an average amount owed of $788 — and the consequences of this could be dire, especially as home heat costs are expected to reach their highest level in over 10 years.
“I expect a tsunami of shutoffs,” Jean Su, a senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, told Bloomberg.
OBSERVATION – Need more evidence that bidenomics is killing the middle class and why the public doesn’t believe his claims of having mastered inflation – look to the pocket books of Americans.
Stock market is struggling this morning after new data showed retail sales fell more than expected in November, raising fears that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are tipping the economy into a recession. Investors absorbed a disappointing retail sales report that suggested inflation is taking a toll on consumers. Retail sales fell 0.6% in November, according to the Commerce Department. That was a bigger loss than the Dow Jones estimate of a 0.3% decline.
OBSERVATION – Economic data still pointing to recession contrary to govt/Fed narratives.
Invasion of Illegals –
2022 was the worst year for illegal immigration in U.S. history.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration has no plan for what to do beginning next week when it loses the ability to quickly expel illegal immigrants.
The outlook for 2023 will be worse yet.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Violence coming from trans-activists has taken over the lead from Antifa, though the black bloc will turn out to support them. However, much of the violence has focused on protests, with the administration turning blind eye and other govt entities cowed into inaction, the level of violence can be expected to increase as efforts to silence those on the other side increase.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Twitter founder Jack Dorsey has admitted that the social media company’s many failures were his fault - before immediately passing the blame to one of the tech firm’s activist investors.
In a blog post published Tuesday, Dorsey owned up to allowing the company to stray from the preservation of free speech, but added that he only allowed that to happen when he ‘no longer had hope,’ after an unnamed investment group bought up stock in the company in 2020.
Dorsey did not specify which company that was, but he was likely pointing to Elliott Management, which that year bought a majority share in Twitter for $387million under the direction of managing partner Jesse Cohn, who then set about trying to oust Dorsey.
OBSERVATION – Some are saying Dorsey has been set up to be the fall guy for Twitters unconstitutional liaison with the fed govt to censor speech. That may be true to a degree. Under the current regime it is highly unlikely Dorsey will face a judge over his clear perjury before a congressional committee and I’m darn well sure the FBI/CIA will not be touched either. Thus he deflects the criticism away from the govt. However, even with this Mea Culpa, he is trying to deflect blame onto Elliott Mgmt.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The House passed a stopgap spending bill Wednesday night that gives negotiators an extra week to finish a $1.7 trillion year-end spending package, setting up an all-out legislative sprint before lawmakers leave for the holidays.
The temporary funding patch, approved in a 224-201 vote, staves off a government shutdown Friday at midnight and extends federal cash through Dec. 23. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the Senate could pass the measure as soon as Thursday, as long as there isn’t “unwelcome brouhaha” — a reference to the ability of any one senator to hold up the funding fix in exchange for concessions or amendment votes.
OBSERVATION – Senate has scheduled a vote for today. This leaves the big fight over the duration of the CR and many other spending items packed into it.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Army intends to deploy the Typhon weapon system to Germany under the 56th Artillery Command. Last week, they received the first of four Typhon weapon systems. The acquisition is escalating tensions with Russia, which views this as a violation of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which the U.S. left in 2018.
China –
The Chinese military sent a record 18 strategic bombers into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on Tuesday. China has flown military aircraft around Taiwan’s ADIZ on a near-daily basis for years. China has sent larger numbers of military aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ in a single day but Tuesday’s sortie represents the largest number of strategic bombers China has flown into Taiwan’s ADIZ in a single day.
OBSERVATION – This is part of China’s ongoing campaign to maintain stress on the Taiwan’s defense systems as well as to practice for the real thing. The flight paths of these planes over the past few years besides harassing Taiwan, are those that one would expect them to follow in the event of an actual attack. This causes Taiwan to respond to them as an actual threat.
The second component of this tactic is that they can cause Taiwan to lower its readiness by thinking this is just another Chinese “exercise” . Israel nearly fell to this tactic during the 1973 Yon Kippur war with Egypt/Syria.
Japan –
According to a report from Japanese media NHK, sources inside the Japanese Ministry of Defense say the Japanese Ground Self Defense Forces (JGSDF) will field two new hypersonic missile units equipped with long-range glide vehicles. The new units will be deployed in Hokkaido and Kyushu Prefectures no later than 2026. The JGSDF will also deploy two new anti-aircraft missile regiments on Okinawa and Amami-Oshima, increasing their total number to seven. As part of Japan’s new “counterstrike” initiative, it will field modernized Type-12 anti-ship missiles with a maximum range in excess of 900 km.
OBSERVATION – Japan continues to press forward to prepare for an eventual confrontation with China.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces continue to construct defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine at this time.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
The Kremlin said that U.S. Patriot missile-defense systems would be a legitimate target if supplied to Ukraine, signaling that Russia doesn’t intend to cease its military offensive even in the face of superior weaponry.
U.S. officials this week said Washington was finalizing plans to provide Ukraine with the highly advanced weaponry that would significantly boost its air-defense capabilities, following months of Russian missile and drone attacks on the country’s power grid, cities and civilian infrastructure.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Wednesday that the coveted missile- defense batteries would absolutely be fair game for a strike, but added that he would rather not comment further until there was official information on the matter, as opposed to media reports, which he described as unreliable.
OBSERVATION – Of course it would be a target in Ukraine, just like they’ve targeted HIMARS units. I certainly hope they are not referring to Patriot batteries deployed to front line NATO countries like Poland.
According to Russia’s Interfax news agency, Russian motorized infantry troops deployed to Belarus as part of the regional group of forces are training for urban operations and strongpoint assaults.
NOTED HERE - All current analysis indicates that Russia is trying to use Belarus to train its recently mobilized conscripts due to an internal instructor shortage (Russia deployed the instructors to Ukraine).
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Activity appears to have slowed down a bit, again, likely due to poor weather. Hot spot continues to be fighting around Bahkmut and west of Donetsk. Ukaine continues with deep strikes hitting CPs, logistics and troop concentrations in both occupied territories and Russia.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk.
Detonations at a Russian ammunition depot reported after missile strike in Kadiivka
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Explosions reported in Melitopol at a Russian facility.
Crimean front ———
Sporadic Russian artillery strikes on Kherson and vicinity.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory –
Explosions were reported in Klintsy of Briansk region at a petroleum facility (?)
Air defense reportedly engaged aerial targets in Kursk, Kursk region of Russia
Railway line was blown up in Rostov region, “Freedom of Russia” has claimed responsibility
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Russia is making grudging gains around Bakhmut as Russia intensifies its attack and pours more support to the attacks. Ukraine is making them pay heavily for every inch they gain – typical of just about every point defensive action of the war.
Weather will continue to dominate action and forecasts of increasing cold conditions that will refreeze the ground towards the end of the month.
On a longer term basis, Ukrainian (and other) officials are forecasting that Russia may attempt a large-scale offensive in the early months of 2023. This is based in part by evaluating the redeployment of higher quality forces from the Kherson region to the east to bolster the drive to capture the Donbas. It also tries to factor in the recent introduction of mobilized conscripts. Ukraine has clearly indicated it will not pause over the winter and that appears to be playing out for Russia as well.
Critical to Russia’s goals will be to be able to mass enough men and armor to punch through Ukraine’s deep defenses. This will almost necessitate that they change their tactics on the ground to employ the combined arms maneuver based actions and abandon the frontal assault – road bound methods that have stymied them since February.
Russia is also hampered by a total lack of air superiority and increasingly poor armor and tanks they are pulling out of storage. The plethora of T-62s captured in Kherson shows how far down the ladder they have had to reach. Munitions to keep their hungry artillery firing is also a concern. High consumption rate for their present fight around Bakhmut and Donetsk has put a drain on stockpiles, not to forget Ukraine’s successful identification and interdiction of Russian logistics/ammo dumps. The combination will make it difficult for Russia to mass the stockpiles necessary to support a major offensive.
Logistics for Russia will be critical – and Russia has been failing at it since February.
On the other side, Ukraine is also in the position to redeploy forces to face a Russian offensive thanks to the relative ease they recaptured Kherson. Russian fixation on protecting Crimea will permit Ukraine to maintain a threat with minimal forces, freezing many of the higher quality forces Russia has. Further, Russia’s pulling of forces could open up weak zones that Ukraine could attack through – such as seen in the Kharkiv offensive.
What axis of attacks would Russia take? If they are following their current pattern, they will try to push past Bahkmut (or seize it more likely) and push eastward. This attack would likely be supported by a pincer coming out the the Donetsk region. Another supporting attack would likely come out of the Kreminna region – towards Lysenk to regain that transportation hub. Some suggest another attack out of the Svatove – Kreminna line.
This is all based on if they can prevent Ukraine from launching a preemptive attack, likely against Svatove or southward toward Melitopol to threaten Crimea. Ukraine is capable of supporting both, while Russia is far more limited in its capability.
Bottom line is there are a lot of ‘what ifs’ that have to be worked through. Russia will try something because failure to would endanger putin’s reign and place it in even worse shape. I think Ukraine will get out of the starting blocks before Russia as its troops are better supplied and more highly motivated.
Poland –
Polish Prime Minister - “We support the proposal to confiscate the assets of wealthy Russians in Europe”
Germany has spent over a half trillion dollars to purchase oil and gas in an effort to keep the country supplied with energy and its economy afloat after losing Russian energy imports. With winter just beginning, Germany is already running out of power and is relying on the pricier spot, or cash, energy market to help meet demand. The higher prices passed along to consumers is driving double-digit inflation.
OBSERVATION – I am concerned that this will result in the collapse of German industry that will ripple across the globe – creating some potential serious instability.
Iran –
Protests continue, though at a smaller scale than recently.
Central / South America General-
Rumors continue to grow in Brazil that the military is potentially preparing for some sort of response to the 2022 Election in the country as pro-Bolsonaro protests increase.
OBSERVATION – Much of this is still deep in the RUMINT zone. Instability in Brazil could impact global economic situation if the agriculture sector gets messed with.
Peruvian Defense Minister Alberto Otarola announced a 30-day national state of emergency on Tuesday in response to ongoing protests of ex-President Castillo’s arrest. The decision came from a council of ministers and suspended the rights to assembly, freedom of movement, and privacy.
OBSERVATION - Peru is a concern as it produces about 10% of the world’s copper. Copper is one of those necessities for the green agenda batteries. Copper prices have been high, though recently declining recently. Any cut in Peruvian production will hit the markets hard. BTW, many leftists have their fingers in the Peruvian copper industry and could use it to blackmail the govt.
Black Swans -
As winter formally approaches (well, we’ve been dealing with winter here in my corner of the Redoubt for the past couple months now) La Nina has proven to be rather fickle. The September update by NOAA indicates that there was a 91 percent chance the pattern would be in control through November and a 54 percent chance through March 2023. “Preliminary research indicates that La Niña corresponds to an especially active phase for tornadoes over the Deep South with a relatively high frequency of cold-season outbreaks of EF2 or stronger tornadoes,” the National Weather Service office in Jackson, Mississippi, said.
This part of the forecast has held true, with yesterday a major tornado ripping through the New Orleans as well as other parts of the country – almost unprecedented this deep into December.
Models give La Niña about a 50-50 chance of lasting from January to March 2023, according to the Climate Prediction Center. Deeper into spring, chances for an ENSO-neutral situation increase.
The latest outlook gives ENSO-neutral a 71% chance of winning out between February and April 2023.
How things pan out this winter – moisture wise – is critical to farmers. However, weather extremes hitting the country even harder than the previous two years. Not to go chicken little, but we need to be aware of how the weather could affect things for the good or bad. Next 4 – 5 months will be critical.