LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.
Wuhan virus –
Published Pfizer Phase 1/2 Covid vaccine clinical trial data showed dramatic transient lymphophenia (reduced white blood cells such as T-cells, NK cells, antibody producing Bcells) in ppl 1-3 days post-vaccination compared to unvaccinated control group.
T-cells fight a bunch of diseases, including cancer.
OBSERVATION - Medical authorities have been reporting an increase in cancers from around the world, some associating it with the Pfizer/Modrna jabs. The greater medical community has been trying to steer away from a direct association as it would further erode any of their credibility left from their decisions during the plandemic.
Economy –
The consumer price index rose just 0.1% from the previous month, and increased 7.1% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 7.3%.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI rose 0.2% on the month and 6% on an annual basis, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 6.1%.
“Cooling inflation will boost the markets and take pressure off the Fed for raising rates, but most importantly this spells real relief starting for Americans whose finances have been punished by higher prices,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union.
OBSERVATION – While some economists rejoice, concerns remain that the Fed has over tightened the money supply and triggered a significant recession in 2023. However, 7.1% is still very high and there are many legs under this economy that are still very shaky. A little too early to break out the bubbly.
IN RELATED- Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting today and markets widely expect it on Wednesday to announce a 0.5 percentage point rate increase, regardless of Tuesday’s CPI reading.
Union Pacific Railroad CEO Lance Fritz is scheduled to appear before the U.S. Surface Transportation Board (STB) to answer questions about rail delays. The rail company, which carries 27% of U.S. rail freight, imposed 886 service embargoes through October. According to the STB, this was more than all other Class I rail carriers combined.
OBSERVATION – if you remember from earlier this year, some of these embargos involved companies using non-UP cars to ship their products in. Diesel and diesel additives, fertilizer and grain were among the top three that I’ve noted. Part of the rail company’s arguments at the time were they were backlogged with their own cars and were lacking crews to run additional trains.
The U.S. will likely tumble into a “mild” recession next year that sees unemployment top 5%, according to a new report from Citi Global Wealth Investments. The group said in its latest outlook report published this week that the economy could lose an estimated 2 million jobs in 2023 as the jobless rate climbs to 5.25%.
“We believe that the Fed’s rate hikes and shrinking bond portfolio have been stringent enough to cause an economic contraction within 2023,” the economists said in the report. “And if the Fed does not pause rate hikes until it sees the contraction, a deeper recession may ensue.”
OBSERVATION – The roulette wheel is still spinning on just how bad the recession in 2023 will be.
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was arrested by Bahamian authorities Monday evening after the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York shared a sealed indictment with the Bahamian government, setting the stage for extradition and U.S. trial for the onetime crypto billionaire at the heart of the cryptocurrency exchange’s collapse. His arrest is the first concrete move by regulators to hold individuals accountable for the multibillion-dollar implosion of FTX last month.
OBSERVATION – How strenuously he will be prosecuted remains to be seen given that he apparently laundered billions of dollars into democrat political campaigns as well as some key republican leaders bank accounts that were later used to fund anti-Trump candidates.
Invasion of Illegals –
The House is scheduled to consider HR 3648, the Equal Access to Green cards for Legal Employment (EAGLE) Act, which would eliminate per-country limits on work visas and increase the limit on family-based visas.
Some Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers say they’re being told to cut back on arrests so there are detention beds available for migrants detained at the southern border. The directive reportedly was not issued nationwide but was given to agents in some ICE field offices, according to The Washington Times.
“We are being told to abandon detention of anyone without a Class A felony, like murder, in preparation for border flights,” one East Coast ICE officer told the Times.
IN RELATED - A huge migrant caravan of over 1,000 people crossed illegally into El Paso, TX last night, making it the largest single group we have ever seen. The city of El Paso reports Border Patrol now has over 5,000 in custody & has released hundreds to city streets.
An El Paso homeless shelter reports it is beyond capacity due to the surge in migrants being released on the city’s streets. Elsewhere in the city, two migrants were attacked and robbed outside a bus station by another migrant illegally present from Mexico.
OBSERVATION – This is only expected to get worse with the discontinuation of Title 42 in the next couple weeks. By this spring (before the summer heat reduces some of the illegal activity) things could be totally chaotic at the border. Border patrol is already overwhelmed at the current rate – imagine what will happen as even more illegals press across the border.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden is scheduled to sign the Respect for Marriage Act during a ceremony at the White House.
OBSERVATION – One can expect the flood of LGBT etc lawsuits against churches and other religious organizations to begin early next year.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
I jumped the gun yesterday in thinking that drop 5 of the Twitter files would be about Fauci.
Twitter Files Part 5 has just been released by Bari Weiss, which explains the removal of President Trump from Twitter.
The short version is that Twitter found that Trump’s tweets on the morning of January 8th, 2021 did NOT violate their policies against incitement.
OBSERVATION – Also noted that michelle 0bama demanded Trump be banned and the following day he was. However, the Fauci release is still incoming according to Musk.
IN RELATED - Yoel Roth, who played a key role in setting the policies that silenced conservative opinions and he was regularly meeting with people from the FBI and other federal government agencies, presumably to coordinate the censorship efforts, hasn’t liked the negative reporting he’s received. In fact, CNN is reporting that he and his boyfriend wound up fleeing their home this weekend after allegedly receiving threats and verbal attacks over his role in the company’s censorship policies.
OBSERVATION – Classical liberal/gay tactic of switching the narrative to their becoming the victim. Media trying to portray this gay individual as being a ‘republican’ – yes really.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The House is expected to move on a short term Continuing Resolution before the 16 December deadline to pass a spending bill. Senate Democrats proposed a $1 billion increase to the budget for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) said that Republicans don’t oppose the IRS, but expressed concerns over how the budget would be spent without increased scrutiny.
OBSERVATION – Upgunning the IRS with 1 BILLION more dollars to use to target conservative, white Americans.
The bigger fight is to prevent the CR from extending through the whole 2023 FY. This would in essence deny any republican house control over spending and lock in progressive democrat pork. It looks like the republicans are winning this one.
The news broke Monday evening that Sam Brinton, the gender-fluid, in-your-face, puppy-playing Deputy Assistant Secretary for Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition in the Office of Nuclear Energy in the Department of Energy, has finally been fired. A Department of Energy spokesbeing said tersely: “Sam Brinton is no longer a DOE employee. By law, the Department of Energy cannot comment further on personnel matters.”
OBSERVATION – What took so long. His is a casebook reason why in the past people with psychological issues were denied security clearances. This nut job should never been hired for the position in the first place. What is even scarier is that there are plenty more like him buried throughout the biden administration.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The United States Air Force conducted its first successful test of a fully-assembled hypersonic missile. The service achieved a major milestone in May with a successful booster test. The missile, designated AGM-183A Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon, was launched from a B-52 bomber off the coast of California.
OBSERVATION – this weapon is more advanced than the Russian version which is nothing more than an existing ground launched ballistic missile modified for launch from an aircraft – giving it higher performance capabilities. The US weapon is built hypersonic from the start.
China –
Update on the India/Chinese clash reported yesterday. Approximately 300 Chinese People’s Liberation Army troops armed with melee weapons attacked an Indian military border outpost in India’s Arunachal Pradesh state on 09 December. The Indian outpost was manned by 50 Indian Army personnel, some of which suffered non life-threatening injuries. There were no comments from Beijing on why PLA forces attacked the outpost or on any reported casualties.
OBSERVATION – Some rumored that the incident was triggered by higher-ups in China (where such a directive to initiate a border incident would have come) in response to a recent India-US military exercise.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are constructing defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.
It is only capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
RUMINT –
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officially denied rumors that Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov has been or soon will be replaced. However, the Russian MoD stopped short of offering the kind of credible support for this denial that it has provided to demonstrate that Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu is still on the job.
NOTE – The politics of this war have been brutal towards the MOD and senior generals at the Kremlin.
Logistics –
- Reports that Russian forces appear to lack sufficient infrastructure to support their troops in Crimea. Russian military bloggers claimed that the 1472nd Naval Clinical Hospital in Sevastopol is facing blood donor supply shortages for wounded Russian personnel. Other medical shortages plague all sectors of the front.
- “One senior military official briefed on details of the exchanges said Iran had agreed to supply up to 6,000 UAVs, mostly Shahed models of the type used by Russia since the summer.” “The senior military official, citing intelligence intercepts, said Iran agreed to supply designs/technical supervision for the planned Russian drone factory to be located in the Tatarstan region, for up to $1 billion, in addition to other, still unknown inducements.”
- The Russian military is quickly running out of artillery and rocket ammunition, Pentagon officials said Monday, and the Russian army can only sustain its current rate of attack in Ukraine until early next year. A senior U.S. defense official told reporters on a conference call that Moscow is increasingly turning to Iran and North Korea to replenish its “rapidly dwindling” stockpiles of rocket and artillery rounds
Reports that Russia is increasingly relying on 40+ year old munitions that fail most of the time.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- Reports that mobilized Russians are falling sick en masse with bronchitis and pneumonia at their training camp in Siberia, where they are living in tents in temperatures of -30°C (-22°F) according to their wives. They are being given no medicines and are having to buy their own.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine has liberated around 54% of the maximum amount of territory Russia seized since Feb 24 , 2022. Russia now controls around 18% of internationally recognized areas of Ukraine, including the Donbas and Crimea regions under Russian control since 2014.
Numerous spoiling attacks along the eastern fronts with fierce fighting continuing around Bakhmut. The defense of Bakhmut has been classic Ukrainian urban defense while the Russian attacks have been their typical frontal assaults lacking significant tank support and now with decreased artillery support. Ukrainian forces are increasingly under pressure at Bakhmut but are showing no signs of collapse.
Ukrainian forces are also continuing to strike key logistical and command targets in the south as well as in Russian territory close to the Ukraine border. These key, pinpoint strikes have been critical to the Ukrainian successes over the past months.
Russia is also continuing its drone/missile attacks targeting the electrical grid in an attempt to cripple power supply and force Ukraine to the bargaining table.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove. Continued sporadic Russian sporadic artillery strikes along the border northeast of Kharkiv city.
There is evidence that Russia is attempting to launch a new attack towards Lyman in order to regain the key logistical hub necessary to support its operations.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Continuing Russian attacks west-northwest of Donetsk and Bakhmut.. Russia forces at Bakhmut appear to be attempting to push north of the city to cut off a supply route from the north while unsuccessfully conducting frontal assaults. The northern side of the city is mostly open ground and with the mud, is a death trap for Russian armor. Minor ground gains have come at an extremely heavy cost.
Russia has continued attacks in the Avdiyivka area northwest of Donetsk. One of the main goals of the Russian push in this region is to place Donetsk city outside the artillery range of Ukraine, which has been hitting military targets regularly.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Bridge on the M14 highway between Melitopol and Kostiantynivka village was blown up overnight. Confusion as to the method used to hit the bridge, some claim a missile strike, but current videos posted on social media do not show apparent surface damage as would be created by a missile. NOTE – This is paralleling the battlefield preparation pattern Ukraine used in Kherson – cutting off main logistics routes. The M14 highway is one of those key supply lines connecting Crimea to the southern occupied areas of Ukraine.
Crimean front ———
Sporadic Russian artillery strikes on Kherson and vicinity.
Russia reportedly establishing fortifications along northern shore lines in Crimea to possibly fend off Ukrainian attacks.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian drone and missile attacks ongoing.
Russian Territory –
Large explosions were reported in Klintsy and Klimovo of Bryansk region located near the border with Belarus and Ukraine., yesterday. Local media report that the explosions took place on a headquarters of a military unit. Ukrainian claims to have hit the main base of the Russian 488th Motor Rifle Regiment in Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast. Size of the crater indicates a fairly large warhead, possibly from an OTR-21 Tochka SRBM.
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Russia has made the capture of Bakhmut priority number one and are supporting it with just about everything they have. However, pressing such an attack during peak fall mud season has taken a severe toll. Some recent analysis of death to wounded ratios seem to show a 1:2 ratio (commonly used ratios are 1:3 to 1:4). This strongly suggests that the wounded are dying from either poor or lack of care. Not good when losses going into the meat grinder by itself are so high to begin with.
I expect a continued blood bath for Bakhmut as Wagner Group forces have staked their reputation on taking it.
I’m also seeing increase in what would be called ‘spoiling attacks’ by Russia in an effort to preempt Ukrainian preparations for a winter offensive once the ground freezes. Part of this effort is designed to limit troop redeployment/concentration for the offensive. Ukraine has been using similar tactics in support of its offensives.
Availability of Russian arms, munitions and armor will continue to hamper any real Russian offensive action. Though their troop numbers have recently increased (on the books) from the mobilization - the mobilees are stuck with poor kit, poor armor and poor support in general – all contributing to a very poor morale.
Finally, Russia appears to have solved its cold weather issues with Iranian drones and have resumed their assault on the Ukraine power grid. If Iran supplies ballistic missiles as well, then the NATO response will appear to be supplying Ukraine with longer range systems as well – and no strings attached on striking deeper into Russia with them. Second, NATO may also move forward in getting Patriot systems for Ukraine use to counter the expected missile barrages. Russia’s campaign to destroy the Ukrainian power grid is about the only thing working well (after a fashion) for them at this stage.
Belarus -
A sudden check of the combat readiness of the army began in Belarus was initiated overnight.
Speaking to a Norwegian media outlet, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that he was worried Ukraine will turn into a “full-fledged war that spreads into a major war between NATO and Russia.” He stressed that NATO was working to avoid a widening conflict.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Things remain tense in N Kosovo with continuing to attack Kosovan police and disrupting commerce.
Iran –
Protests continue.
LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.
Also looking for what 2023 events you are most concerned about.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Recently circulated videos of a 2022 meeting of the Wisconsin chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) show an executive of the national organization stating that children who receive puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones “probably will be infertile.”
In a clip of a virtual meeting, which was posted on Twitter this week by Libs of TikTok, Dr. Kathryn Lowe addressed “infertility concerns” related to so-called transgender hormone use.
“The big thing is, here, the infertility concerns with starting gender affirming hormone therapy,” Lowe said in the video. “For kids who go on a blocker at tanner stage two, and then they add in gender affirming hormone therapy — there isn’t a lot of research about this out there — but what we do know is these kids probably will be infertile.”
Lowe is a board-certified pediatrician and member of the executive committee of the AAP Section on LGBT Health and Wellness, according to the AAP website.
OBSERVATION – Global depopulation is a stated goal of GGR/WEF. It can arguably be said that the Pfizer/Modena jabs are a component of that effort to depopulate given the direct deaths from the jabs, plus the alarming rate of ‘excess deaths’ now being recorded globally. Another avenue is to go after children. The jab is pretty well documented in causing spontaneous miscarriages and other reproductive problems. But the latest, demonically inspired insanity is the huge push by transgenderists to transition our children. Not only will the blockers cause sterility, but the literal removal of sex organs as well.
This is all part of a multifaceted effort to cull half the world’s population as stated by WEF adherents. Other parts include food and power restrictions.
Economy –
Item buried the MSM when reporting the latest inflation figures are the skyrocketing food prices. The price of vegetables from producers shot up 38% on a monthly basis in November — and jumped over 80% compared to November 2021 — according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics latest Producer Price Index. The drought in kalifornia has been a major driver in the price of vegetables.
The price of eggs shot up 26 percent last month. And over the past 12 months the price of eggs is up an astounding 244 percent.
And food supplies are expected to get even tighter in 2023. U.S. domestic supplies of key crops including corn, soybeans and wheat are expected to remain snug into 2023, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The agency is forecasting U.S. corn supplies to fall to a decade low before the 2023 harvest, while soybean stocks were seen at a seven-year low and wheat ending stocks are forecast at the lowest in 15 years.
The outlook for wheat is bad as well. The two largest wheat exporters in the world are projected to have very disappointing harvests in the months ahead.
Flooding in Australia, the world’s second largest wheat exporter, in recent weeks has caused extensive damage to the crop which was ready for harvest, a severe drought is expected shrink Argentina’s wheat crop by almost 40%. This will reduce global wheat availability in the first half of 2023.
A lack of rainfall in the U.S. Plains, where the winter crop ratings are running at the lowest since 2012, could dent supplies for the second half of the year.
The war in Ukraine also will impact grain crops / exports in 2023, adding to the woes.
OBSERVATION – There appears to be no relief in the near term for food supplies and prices. It should be clear that when lack of fertilizer and high fuel costs are factored in, our food supply is become increasingly endangered. If our food supply is in danger, the global situation is becoming equally grim.
No level of Fed rate increase can lower these costs, but will only increase them as farmers/ranchers will be priced out of short term loans.
Invasion of Illegals –
Twenty GOP House members who want to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas dialed up their pressure Tuesday on House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., at a press conference with three former DHS officials, The Hill reported.
OBSERVATION – eGOP are reluctant to go after Mayorkas, rather sit on their status quo and let him go unpunished. I expect to see some poorly covered congressional hearings and not much more than that.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Radical transgenderism (backed by Antifa’s muscle) is ascendent as the year ends and with the defense of marriage act will become even more malignant and dangerous.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
With 5 twitter file drops, still waiting to see what the next will bring.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Democrats introduced a bill Tuesday known as the “Identifying Mass Shooters Act” that will direct the National Institute of Justice to collect, study and analyze online content to identify potential mass shooters before they act, according to a copy of the bill obtained by the Daily Caller News Foundation.
The bill, introduced by Democratic Maryland Rep. Kweisi Mfume along with several other Democrats, will require the director of the NIJ to create and submit a report to Congress detailing the “content patterns” of mass shooters within two years of the legislation’s enactment. The bill claims that existing oversight and accountability measures for social media platforms produce an environment that fosters hate speech, extremism, radicalization, and violence.”
OBSERVATION – this bill is hard to categorize. It is a trojan horse in that you have to remember democrats/leftists have defined your average, white American as a domestic terrorist who are trigger prone to commit violence. They will use this bill to justify further collection of intel on half of America who didn’t vote for biden. According to the left –“ an environment that fosters hate speech, extremism, radicalization, and violence.” covers a wide swath of the American people. Thus if you post about shooting, the constitution, opposition to golden cows of the left (LGBT, CRT, etc) et al, you will be targeted for action.
The House is scheduled to consider HR 1437 as a legislative vehicle for a one-week Continuing Resolution.
OBSERVATION - Looks like the democrats wont get their full one year CR and are having to maneuver for a shorter term.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Increasing likelihood that Patriot units, manned by Ukranians , may soon be on the way to Ukraine, following training of crews in Germany.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are constructing defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.
It is only capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
According to a report from Reuters, Russia on Tuesday dismissed a peace proposal from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that would involve a pullout of Russian troops, saying Kyiv needed to accept new territorial “realities.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said those realities included Russia’s addition of four Ukrainian territories in September following public referendums in the regions. Since the annexations, Russia has lost significant ground in the south and east of Ukraine and has spoken more frequently of its willingness to hold peace talks. But it says it does not see Ukraine and the West, which is supplying Kyiv with weapons, as ready to negotiate. (FO)
RUMINT – A major flu outbreak has hit Kremlin and could force Russian President Vladimir Putin into isolation in a bunker, a report in Metro said.
The development comes a day after officials announced that Mr Putin will not hold his annual end-of-year press conference this year. Since Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov gave no reason or the break with tradition, several outlets are claiming that it has been done due to health issues Mr Putin is facing. After Russia launched its offensive against Ukraine in February this year, there has been a renewed focus on Mr Putin’s health.
“Yes, this year, flu came to stay. The most unpleasant thing in this situation that it is precisely the flu variant which causes the most serious damage to health. This is the flu A virus (H1N1) of the pandemic year of 2009. In 2009, it emerged for the first time as a type of flu with high spread potential and triggered the 2009-2020 pandemic,” she said in an interview with the Rossiya-1 TV channel.
Metro said Russian officials are keeping the President away from people in the wake of the spread of this infectious disease. It added that Mr Putin is expected to abandon his address to the Upper House of Russian Parliament as many officials are affected by flu.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia continues to make minor gains around Bakhmut, but at a high cost of men and material. Actions along the rest of the front have dropped down a notch, likely due to inclement weather.
Russia launched another round of drone attacks, targeting primarily Kyiv. Reportedly all drones were shot down but it appears they may have missed one. Other missile/drones hit Kherson.
In the face of increasing missile/drone attacks, reports are that biden is having final preparations made to deploy Patriot ADA systems in Ukraine. Will discuss implications more below in OUTLOOK.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
Sporadic Russian artillery strikes on Kherson and vicinity. There are reports that Russia is pulling units back from the east (south) bank of the Dnipir River to constructed fortifications further east.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory –
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
Ukrainian partisans conducted an assassination attempt against Kherson Oblast occupation Deputy Head Vitaly Bulyuk in his car in Skadovsk, Kherson Oblast on December 12.
OUTLOOK ——
Tactically, no significant change in the near future, with Russia continuing it push to capture Bahkmut.
On a more ‘stratigic’ level, the probable introduction of state-of-the-art Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine would be a mixed bag of nuts IMHO
The system is among the most advanced in the world and is usually in short supply. Due to its long-range capability it could potentially shoot down Russian missiles and drones before they come within range of Ukrainian cities. Russia would likely view any attempt to arm Ukraine with Patriot defences as an escalation. Former president Dmitry Medvedev - who is now deputy chairman of the national security council - warned against the move last month.
But unlike Ukraine’s existing air defense systems, Patriot systems require large crews to operate them, and it could take several months to train Kyiv’s forces to use it effectively.
Now, lets take a closer look at the capabilities of the system and is it a match to the threat Russia is presenting. More and more it appears that Russia’s game plan is to hit Ukraine with swarms of relatively cheap Iranian drones. It appears to be saving its missiles for other key targets, given their short supply. The Patriot system has proven effectiveness against short ranged ballistic missile systems – improving a lot since the Desert Shield/Storm days.
Patriot is good against aircraft and ballistic missiles. Most aircraft are not the problem for Ukraine since Russia has epically failed in establishing air superiority and struggles to provide local close air support (and taking losses from Manpad systems). Ukranian S300’s have been used to good effect against most Russian ballistic missiles – a target Patriot could help improve upon. This threat increases with the likelihood that Iran will supply copious amounts of ballistic missiles to Russia in the near future.
But the bigger developing threat is coming from the swarms of Iranian drones that are being launched in mass to locally overwhelm air defenses to enable some to reach their target. These drones are relatively cheap compared to the far more expensive Patriot missiles and likely harder to target due to their very low flying profile. So far Ukraine has had good success against the drones using standard bullet style ADA (like the German Gephard) and manpads. So a much more abundant, cheaper system may be better to deploy in mass.
A defense system not on the table that is designed to handle mass attacks is Israel’s Iron Dome system – with more cost effective missiles and system capable of engaging the high numbers of drones to be expected.
IMHO, the Patriot system is more a shiny object than practical means of addressing Russia’s recent drone/missile barrages. The better way would be reinforce existing success and give Ukraine longer range systems to put the hurt back on Russia.
Belarus -
Noted yesterday, Lukashenko ordered a snap comprehensive readiness check of the Belarusian military on December 13. The exercise does not appear to be cover for concentrating Belarusian and/or Russian forces near jumping-off positions for an invasion of Ukraine.
Rather, it involves Belarusian elements deploying to training grounds across Belarus, conducting engineering tasks, and practicing crossing the Neman and Berezina rivers (which are over 170 km and 70 km away from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, respectively).
Most activity is in the southwestern corner of Belarus. IF an invasion were to start (again, highly doubtful at this stage) a likely target would be the transportation/logistical hub of Lviv.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
President Osmani, PM Kurti and Speaker Konjufca signed Kosovo’s application for EU membership. To be sent tomorrow in Brussels
OBSERVATION – Some look at the application for EU membership as another reason Serbia is causing so much trouble with Kosovo - as a way to deter EU states from endorsing the application under threat of war.
Iran –
Protests continue.
Lebanon -
Lebanon has suffered growing economic decline and political chaos since 2019. Lebanese consider Iran the major cause and that makes Hezbollah less popular and effective. Israel has taken advantage of that by hiring more Lebanese to act as informants or agents. These jobs pay well and, for exceptional performers, it is possible to gain residence in Israel if the agent is under suspicion and at risk of arrest. Israel has used this program for decades but the number of agents was usually quite low. In times of great chaos in Lebanon, Israel expanded its network, then gradually reduced it as the situation in Lebanon calmed down. Iran has been a major disruptive force in Lebanon for two decades and is now hated more than Israel or Syria.
OBSERVATION - This in part, has struck fear in Hezbollah – local informants tipping off Israel to concealed facilities and going as far as to even openly oppose Hezbollah activities. Israel HUMINT is next to none in the region.
MORE RELATED - The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on Sunday that the Lebanese based Hezbollah terror group had transferred arms and redeployed militants in from military posts near Damascus and the eastern desert of Homs.
According to SOHR sources, Hezbollah transported weapons and ammunition from its military positions to more heavily fortified warehouses out of fear of potential Israeli attacks in the region.
OBSERVATION – Mosad is probably on this like white on rice. If Israel wants to reach out and touch these relocated weapons they can and will.
Syria -
The United States has resumed full patrols in northern Syria with Syrian Democratic Forces following airstrikes by Turkey in the region, The Jerusalem Post reported Tuesday, citing the Pentagon.
The Washington Post also reported Tuesday the patrols will be expanded.
The U.S. reduced its maneuvers with the SDF following airstrikes by Turkey into northern Syria in response to a bombing Nov. 13 on a busy Istanbul street that killed at least six and wounded dozens more.
OBSERVATION – Turkey may pause their attacks in Kurdish Syria and Iraq out of concern of US forces are present, but this may just cause them to shift more solidly towards a ground game vs air/artillery strikes .
Turkey -
President Erdogan claimed that a recent Turkish ballistic missile test had scared Greece. Erdogan once again accused Greece of militarily reinforcing its islands in the Aegean Sea. The test Erdogan referred to is most likely the October 18 test launch of a Tayfun short-range ballistic missile. The missile has an estimated range of 600 kilometers and was launched from a mobile launcher located on a military base in (northern Turkey, east of Trabzon. The missile flew west, and struck the sea near the Black Sea port of Sinop (east of Istanbul). Turkey said the impact point was 561 kilometers from the launcher. The missile is another example of Turkey’s ability to produce sophisticated modern weapons.
OBSERVATION – Turkey seems to be picking a lot of fights lately. Threats against Greece have been some of the longest standing boils on the rear end of NATO for decades now. Not sure if Erdogan is willing to actually pull the trigger against Greece yet as he would find himself isolated from NATO with only Russia as a possible ally. Turkey is also experiencing massive inflation – nearly at the 100% level, making the inclination to pick a fight to unify the country even more alluring.
Central / South America General-
Pro Bolsonaro protests in Brasilia, Brazil continued yesterday after multiple vehicles were burned in the Brazilian capital yesterday. Some observers note that the size and intensity of these protests are growing.
Late Monday night, Bolsonaro supporters attempted to enter the Federal Police headquarters in Brasilia to free one of their imprisoned leaders. Police arrested José Acácio Serere Xavante for accusations of “anti-democratic acts” and inciting a riot to prevent President-elect Lula de Silva from taking office.
OBSERVATION – Rumors that the military has already moved to Bolsonaro’s side in the dispute, but haven’t moved on the govt yet.
Misc of Note -
A baby formula launched in March to fill in for the shortage in America has issued a recall. A dangerous bacteria was found in its products. It is the same bacteria found in an Abbott plant this year.
The irony is obvious. The baby formula brand, ByHeart, that was created to help ease the shortage now finds itself destroying two days’ worth of product. A third-party testing company found formula contaminated with Cronobacter sakazakil.
Based in Reading, Pennsylvania, ByHeart finds itself recalling five batches of its formula. Fortunately, none of the affected products have been distributed to the public. The bacteria lives in very dry places. It can contaminate dry foods like formula, powdered milk, and herbal teas. Complications are deadly, like sepsis and meningitis, if the bacteria is ingested.
OBSERVATION – The US has become less than a third world country in regards to baby formula.