Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

78 years ago Allied forces stormed the beaches of Normandy.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

The world’s largest asset managers, BlackRock, State Street, and Vanguard, have signed on to the global Net Zero Asset Management Initiative and together use the $20 trillion of other people’s money that they manage to pressure companies whose shares they own into pursuing environmental and social-justice causes. Progressive state pension fund managers in California, New York, Maryland, and even Texas are doing the same with the trillions in retirement funds that they manage.
The various elements of this ideology have come together under the umbrella of “environmental, social and governance” finance (ESG), and its advocates now include the world’s largest banks, asset managers, pension funds, rating agencies, proxy agents, as well as numerous international corporate clubs including Climate Action 100+, the Global Investors Statement to Governments on Climate Change, the Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative, and the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero.
ESG also has the support of the Biden Administration’s Securities and Exchange Commission, which announced it will require all listed companies to provide extensive reporting on their greenhouse gas emissions. It has the support of the Department of Justice, which just declared it would focus on “environmental justice,” and the Department of Labor, which announced it will no longer enforce a Trump-era regulation that barred private pension managers from including political causes such as ESG in their investment decisions.

OBSERVATION - This provides a look behind the curtain on how the GGR/WEF is getting their agenda implemented absent an overt world government. Massive $$$ and the willingness to leverage it. ESG is facing push back from predominantly red states as laws are being passed to prohibit funds from forcing the agenda. But it clear that the biden regime is working almost seamlessly with these forces to get the GGR agendas pushed.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Various reports of LGBT+ thugs assaulting individuals documenting perverted events. Many of these assaulters are likely Antifa affiliated individuals. Antifa since the die down of the 2020 riots has shifted support to LGBT causes as well as environmental, abortion and homeless issues.

The Jan 6 Capitol Hill protest committee is struggling to reach a consensus on their recommendations. It appears that the leftist running the group are planning o reintroducing a plan to abolish the electoral college, overhaul the Electoral Count Act, pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, and the For the People Act.

The House of Representatives will vote this week on eight new bills designed to reduce gun violence. The plans include raising the age to purchase weapons to 21, magazine limits, storage requirements, and some form of increased mental health spending. Rep. Mikie Sherill (D-NJ) said the legislative package is “pretty much dead on arrival in the Senate,”

Numerous “March for our lives” anti-gun protests are being scheduled across the country . Probability of violence breaking out is very low.

Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón cannot prohibit prosecutors from seeking sentencing enhancements for defendants under the state’s “three-strikes” law, the California Second District Court of Appeal ruled Thursday, June 2.
The court’s opinion affirms a 2021 preliminary injunction issued by Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge James C. Chalfant, who ruled that Gascón’s three-strikes enhancement ban is illegal and violates the rights of prosecutors.

OBSERVATION - Criminal chaos is on of the tools the left is using to force citizens to seek help from the govt. A Gascon is one of many Soros backed DA’s inflicting pain on this country through non-enforcement of laws.

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China -

It is being reported that China’s second largest Real Estate developer, EVERGRANDE, officially entered “DEFAULT” status on its massive global debt. This is the first Domino in the coming financial collapse. According to Citibank as of Saturday June 4th, EVERGRANDE is more than 30 days past due on interest payments.

OBSERVATION - As I’ve noted in the past, this has the potential to ripple across the markets in a very negative way. A lot of foreign investment in Evergrande and losing those monies in the precipice of a recession/depression is not good.

Beijing rolled back Covid-19 restrictions, boosting global risk appetite after reporting zero local covid cases on Monday while also finding no community cases for three straight days

OBSERVATION - The constipated shipping and production that has resulted will take months at best to sort out.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea has vowed to respond “firmly and sternly” to any North Korean provocation just after South Korea and the United States fired missiles in a test as a response to the North’s missile launches.

OBSERVATION - US/SK firing of rockets in response probably doesn’t have much impact on Kim’s thinking and are more a waste of money.

IAEA chief Grossi says at North Korea’s nuclear test site at Punggye-Ri we have observed indications that one of the adits has been reopened, possibly in preparation for a nuclear test
OBERVATION - Excavation related work a the site has been noted for some time now. Kinda old news.

News leaking out in NK’s wuhan lockdowns and its pretty rough. Lockdowns have closed markets, quarantined people in their homes, and entire cities and districts were put under a travel/movement ban. North Koreans, unable to acquire basic food and essentials, reportedly have been dying of starvation. North Korean officials are now distributing free food to households suffering from starvation. Worst hit reportedly are northern regions of the country, including its major urban areas.

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia initially hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. However, Russia has failed in this attempt and has continually narrowed its focus now to capturing Sievierodonetsk

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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RUMINT -
Some Russian troops are refusing to return to fight in Ukraine because of their experiences on the front line at the start of the invasion, according to Russian human rights lawyers and activists. The BBC has been speaking to one such soldier.
“I don’t want to go [back to Ukraine] to kill and be killed,” says Sergey - not his real name - who spent five weeks fighting in Ukraine earlier this year.
OBSERVATION - These reports have been circulating since early in the war and have a wife of propaganda about them, however, over the course of the past 100+ days they have come out across a wide spectrum of sources and are very likely to be very true.

Russian Personnel Issues -

- Russian state media has confirmed the death of one of Moscow’s top generals during heavy fighting in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Maj Gen Roman Kutuzov was killed leading an assault on a Ukrainian settlement in the region, a reporter with the state-owned Rossiya 1 said. Kutuzov was the chief of staff of the 29th Combined Arms Army, according to reports. His vehicle was ambushed by Ukrainians and he died in a fight in Donbas, say sources. His death is the 11th general, but the first such high ranking army officer in more than a month.
- Unconfirmed reports of another Russian general biting the dust. Lt Gen Roman Berdnikov, commander of the 29th Army, was reported to have also been killed in fighting over the weekend.
- At least 49 colonels have been killed in the war with Ukraine. The latest was Lt-Col Zaur Dimayev, deputy commander of the 4th battalion of the Akhmat Kadyrov special forces regiment. He was a close associate of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.
- Today one of the most famous Wagner mercenary, nicknamed “Vaha”, was killed in Ukraine. He fought in Donbass in 2014-16 (where he executed prisoners of war), but also in Libya & Syria.

Economic Impact -
- Marriott hotels will pull out of Russia following the latest wave of Western sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime, the company announced Friday.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Some rain/showers over the 10 day forecast period with a warming and drying trend.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

Zelensky actually went right into the Severodonetsk salient.

Dynamics of the Ukrainian counter attack in Severodonetsk continue to ripple out. Reports not clear if the counterattack is continuing to gain ground or stalled.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More Russian artillery fire. Ukrainian forces resumed attacks pressing towards the Russian border but with no significant progress.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation, fog of war in full effect now

Russian forces in the Izyum salient targeted the southern and western margins of the salient with artillery fire with some unsuccessful ground attacks.

Russian forces resumed attacks towards the southwest out of Lyman, no reported gains.

The battle for Severodonetsk continues to ebb and flow and can change quickly.
Considerable Russian artillery support on the eastern side of Severodonetsk. Backed by the probable insertion of Russian reserve forces, the Ukraine counter attack appears to have been stopped.

Considerable Russian artillery along the northern and southern flanks of the Popansa salient supporting Russian ground assaults. No significant ground advances by Russian forces.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
More artillery fire by Russian/separatist forces along the LOC.

Crimea Front -
Russian artillery hit targets between Kherson and Mykolaiv. Ukraine continued pressuring Russian forces in the Kherson Oblast, particularly in the Davydiv Brid region. Russian forces tried unsuccessfully to counter attack Ukrainian forces to halt its advances.

Western Ukraine -
Scattered missile attacks.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.

BLUF - Intense fighting in Severodonetsk will continue as Russia throws in its reserves to sway the battle. This is the kind of fight Ukraine wants in this situation - up close and personal - denying much of Russia’s artillery action if fear of hitting their troops.
Russia appears to be trying to relieve its forces in Severodonetsk by attempting to push northward out of the Popansa salient and from other positions east of Severodonetsk. However, those supporting attacks have largely been unsuccessful.

The Severodonetsk counterattack is also giving Ukraine time to maneuver reserve forces for counteroffensives in other areas that Russians have drained forces from to support the Severodonetsk/eastern Ukraine campaign. This will also give Ukraine more time to integrate newer western supplied systems into their operations.

Russia’s strategic missile campaign against the resupply mission of Ukraine seems to have stalled. Numbers o missiles and targets have dropped to relatively low levels. I think this due to a couple of factors. First, Russia’s OODA loop is too slow and ponderous to adjust to the changing situation. Second, by this time, Russia is probably getting pretty short of ALCMs and medium range ballistic missiles and may be taking even more time to locate targets worth shooting.
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Europe / NATO General -

Boris Johnson - “We cannot stand by while Russian long-range artillery flattens cities and kills civilians. The UK will gift the Ukrainian Armed Forces multiple-launch rocket systems so they can effectively repel the continuing Russian onslaught”

French President Emmanuel Macron said it was vital that Russia was not humiliated over its invasion of Ukraine

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Israel -
The Israeli Defense Minister says that the dispute with Lebanon over the border gas field will be resolved through American mediation.

OBSERVATION - The two countries have been negotiating sea rights for exploration for over a year now. The Israeli drilling being referred to is in that disputed area. Until Israel found the Leviathan gas fields, Lebanon has little interest in the area. Prospects clearly in its territorial waters turned up dry holes, so they have claimed areas closer to Israeli discoveries.

In related. Israel has moved a production vessel to the Karish oil field, which is partly claimed by Lebanon. Israel is preparing for a possible attack on the vessel by Hezbollah, which has said it will not allow the vessel to operate. The Israelis have moved missile defense systems, submarines, and other vessels to the area for protection, according to Kan News.

Rumors about Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s state of health re-emerged on Saturday night, suggesting an escalating battle over his succession that has been raging in Ramallah the past few weeks. Abbas, 86, has been criticized for promoting his close confidant, Hussein al-Sheikh, to the key post of Secretary-General of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), the number two slot in the Palestinian hierarchy, previously held by Saeb Erekat, who died in November 2020.

OBSERVATION - PA transfer of power has been a key factor in West Bank instability as Hamas tries to muscle in and take control as they did in Gaza. If Abbas dies before suitable transition occurs, things will get even more ugly.
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Iraq -
A delegation of the Iraqi parliament’s security and defense committee will visit Duhok later this week to investigate the latest developments in Turkey’s new operation in the province against the PKK, a member of the committee told Rudaw on Monday.

OBSERVATION - Turkey’s operation against the Kurds in Iraq is linked to a similar operation in Syria. At this time I don’t see Iraq taking military actions to remove the Turks, as they tied up too much with internal issues and a resurgent ISIS.
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Lebanon -

See Israel above
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Syria -
There are Unconfirmed reports that the renewed Turkish Invasion of Syria has begun, Armored Columns being supported by Air Assets and Artillery are Claimed to have crossed the Turkish Border into Northern Syria.

There are also reports that Kurdish and Syrian Military Forces have created a Unified Command in order to Hold-Off a Turkish Invasion, this creates a worrying situation since Russia supports the Syrian Government, this could put Turkish and Russian Troops in Open Hostilities.

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Turkey -
See Syria above.
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Freedom requires eternal vigilance
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Wuhan virus -

Kalifornia schools going back to mandated mask wearing after most lifted the requirement in April.
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Economy -

The White House announced that President Biden has authorized the use of the Defense Production Act “to accelerate domestic production of clean energy technologies,” including solar panel parts, building insulation, heat pumps, and more. Biden also announced “the temporary, duty-free importation of solar cells and modules from Southeast Asia to avoid disruptions to the electric power system,” as the Commerce Department described it. The president will allow U.S. solar companies obtain solar modules and cells from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam free of certain duties for two years “in order to ensure the U.S. has access to a sufficient supply of solar modules to meet electricity generation needs while domestic manufacturing scales up.”

The administration has received almost immediate pushback on this emergency declaration. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) told Fox News on Monday - “But more fundamentally, Bret, when gas is approaching $5-a-gallon on average across the country — $7 and $8 in some states — the fact that Biden White House is focused on solar energy as opposed to getting gas price under control really tells you where their priorities are.”

OBSERVATION - Essentially, the US has declared a national energy emergency. The emergency – declared to exist with respect to the threats to the availability of sufficient electricity generation capacity to meet expected customer demand – will stay in effect for at least 24 months or until it’s declared terminated, whichever occurs first. This is also a boon to China who has its fingers in these countries as a way to bypass US sanctions on products. This is also just another way biden et al are looking to shove their green energy policy down america’s throat.
ALSO NOTE - The ease with which a ‘NATIONAL EMERGENCY’ is declared. Wait until one comes out on other topics like climate change or gun violence.

According to AAA, the average price of regular unleaded gas surged 59 cents over the last month, and Monday’s average of $4.87 per gallon represents the most expensive average rate in United States history. Overall, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States has now more than doubled since Joe Biden entered the White House.

OBSERVATION- just yesterday here in the redoubt, had the gas price jump 30 cents / gallon at the station as I was pulling into it. Found a nearby station with the old price and filled up. 15 minutes later it too jumped 30 cents.

New York City billionaire and oil refiner John Catsimatidis said President Biden should “open up the spigots” as Americans feel the wrath of soaring costs at the pump and in the food store. “We have 100 years’ worth of oil. Let them open up the spigots and the price of crude oil will come back down to $55, $60, maybe $65 – half,” he stressed on “Mornings with Maria” Monday. “[Biden] wants to fly to Saudi Arabia and beg the Saudi Arabians to give us another half a million barrels at $120 a barrel… It makes no sense,” he added.

Natural gas prices continue to flux in the face of the Ukraine conflict as well as US markets trying to adjust to the switch over from winter heating to electrical power production requirements. All of these add up to expected record high prices for the foreseeable future.

To offset the water shortages, state lawmakers are targeting California farmers and their legally protected water rights. The lawmakers are proposing using eminent domain to buy up agricultural water rights, shutting down farming across the state, and redirecting the water to urban areas.

OBSERVATION - Doing so cuts off a huge component of what is left of Kalifornia’s income base. California grows approximately 30% of America’s vegetables and 60% of its fruits and nuts. It will also make food costs in Kalifornia and the rest of the nation increase.
Lets flip another view on shutting down farms - much of the Kalifornia left points to the need of farm workers as one of the justifications for uncontrolled illegals in the country. What is going to happen to all those farm workers with the loss of thousands of jobs?
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Invasion of Illegals -

A caravan of as many as 15,000 migrants, many from Venezuela and Cuba, has begun its march from southern Mexico to the US border. The caravan could be the largest in history and comes at a time when US President Joe Biden is facing criticism over an immigration crisis. A record flow of illegal aliens arrived at the US-Mexico border in April, averaging nearly 8,000 a day. More than two million migrants were encountered by Border Patrol officers last year, and traffic could surge to 18,000 a day when so-called Title 42 Covid-19 restrictions are lifted, Biden’s administration has estimated.

Reports, with video support, that migrant flights into New York have ratcheted up in recent weeks to almost one per night, and now a new airport is being utilized to handle the overflow, in an apparent bid by the administration to avoid images of border chaos before the November midterm elections. The majority of the migrants seen in the new videos appear to be Hispanic males in their late teens or early 20s.

OBSERVATION - Putting on the tinfoil hat - but this sounds like ready made foot soldiers for any leftist ‘revolution’ in this country. . . . . I shudder at the thought, but then what has happened over the past few years. . . . .
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Biden / Harris watch -

Biden: “Part of the reason I ran for president is because I was tired of trickle-down economics. It doesn’t work. My plans have produced the strongest, fastest, most wide-spread economic recovery America has ever experienced with record jobs.”

NOTE - - Must have gotten into Hunters drug stash

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CW2/Domestic violence -

The Biden Administration is claiming that it alone can determine truth in order to justify using the full power of government to punish dissent, former congresswoman and Democrat presidential contender Tulsi Gabbard warned on Saturday. “One of the latest tactics that they are using, as you well know, is they claim they want to protect us from ‘misinformation,’ protect us from that which they claim is not true,” Gabbard said.
“So, they decide what is true and false. They decide what is misinformation and what is information.
“And, those who don’t toe the line are accused of spreading misinformation and being targeted and smeared.”

OBSERVATION - Say what you will about Gabbard, she like Deriswhitz and Maher have had their ‘blind squirrel finds nut” moments lately. She lays out clearly how the biden regime is setting up conditions to wage war against any anti-progressive/socialist push back. More suggest at this link.

https://www.cnsnews.com/blog/craig-bannister/tulsi-gabbard-even-more-dangerous-getting-canceled-how-they-weaponize

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POLITICAL FRONT -
More than eight in 10 Americans (83%) now say that the economy is either an extremely or very important issue in determining how they will vote. That is according to the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll.
In the poll, 80% of Americans say that inflation is also an extremely or very important factor in how they will vote and for gas prices, it is 74%.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The Air Force’s fleet of airlifters — roughly half the size it was during the 1990s — has been operating at high tempo for two decades, wearing out airplanes with no near-term prospect of replacement and further cuts to the force planned, despite projected demand for airlift that will operate in increasingly contested environments.
It’s a problem Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost, commander of U.S. Transportation Command, highlighted in statements before the Senate Armed Services Committee March 29. The Air Force’s largest airlift fleet, the C-130 force, has experienced the greatest change “of all mobility priorities” over recent decades, losing almost 50 percent of its capacity “from a high of well over 500 aircraft in Operation Desert Storm to the current programmed levels,” she testified.

OBSERVATION - Our military hasn’t had a though through military procurement program since Reagan.
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China -

China is building a PLA naval base in Cambodia, reports Washington Post. This would be China’s second overseas military base (the other is in Djibouti). This base was initially a ‘secret’ operation.

Diplomatic tensions between China and Canada are rising again, with each country accusing the other of using their military aircraft flying near North Korea of provocation and harassment. Earlier, Canada accused of having one of their fighters buzz a Canadian aircraft which then dispensed chaff that got ingested into the Canadian’s jet engines.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

Sixteen jets (F-35A, F-15K, KF-16) from the South Korean side and four F-16 jets from the U.S. side participated in the exercise, flying over the Yellow Sea in formation, according to Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff. Exercise reportedly in response to NK’s recent rocket launches.

Top U.S. official warns of ‘swift, forceful’ response if North Korea carries out nuke test. The nature of the ‘response’ is not clear. The use of the word “forceful” certainly seems to imply that a military “solution” to Kim’s provocations could be on the table.

The South Korean presidential office is reportedly reviewing President Yoon Suk-yeol’s proposed attendance at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit to be held on June 29 and 30 in Madrid, Spain.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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RUMINT -
Unconfirmed reports that almost all Russian roadblocks in Melitopol have been abandoned by Russian troops. Some are saying that this indicate that there is an upcoming Russian offensive on Zaporizhzhia and Kryvyi Rih NOTE - An offensive action against those two cities/regions has been rumbling for a while. However, the fixation of Russia to capture Severodonetsk has drained Russian forces available to launch such attacks. In fact Ukraine has seized on the thin Russian forces for counter attacks of its own south of Kryvyi Rih.

Further unconfirmed reports from a leaked SIGINT source that orders have been sent that the seizure of Severodonetsk needs to be accomplished by June 10th. We’ve seen similar reported deadlines come an go, so this may be Russian scuttle but.

Logistics -

- The Russian Navy in the Black Sea less and less using regular Kalibr cruise missiles. Instead, it relies more on anti-ship missiles firing them on the land targets inside Ukraine, said the Ukrainian Navy in today’s situational summary report. If so, suggests a shrinking supply of the more accurate and longer ranged Kalibr missiles.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- The death of another Russian general in the war in Ukraine is a sign that there are not enough lower ranked officers to carry out all the missions, according to a Russian state journalist, Business Insider reported on Monday. The journalist, Alexander Sladkov, said that Maj. Gen. Roman Kutuzov had “led soldiers into attack, as if there are not enough colonels,” according to a translation by the BBC.
- The Russian State Duma Defense Committee has stated that they are weighing the possibility of requesting “Peacekeeping” Forces from Nations part of the CSTO Alliance like Armenia and Tajikistan to assist in providing Security and Assistance to Regions in Eastern Ukraine
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Warm and dry over the 10 day forecast period.

RUMINT -
Kiev claimed that its forces coerced the Russian navy to “retreat” 100 kilometers from the Ukrainian Coast, though this development hasn’t been independently confirmed. In the event that there’s any credibility to Moscow’s reported naval movements, then it’s unlikely that they were done under duress like its opponents allege. Rather, they might have been part of a goodwill gesture undertaken by the Kremlin in response to talks with Turkey over de-mining the waters around Odessa as part of the so-called “grain corridor” that they’re trying to create.

OTOH The UK Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces have been strengthening their air defense assets on Snake Island, and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported that Russian forces deployed additional S-300 air defense battalions to Crimea. Taken together, these reports suggest that Ukrainian naval pressure and anti-ship missiles—likely including those provided by the UK and other states—have forced the Russian grouping in the northwestern Black Sea to rely more on coastal and air defense as they are pushed away from the Ukrainian shoreline.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The past 24 have been relatively subdued AFA volume of reporting goes. Russia’s attacks on Severodonetsk may have reached a tactical pause on both sides, but reporting has been very confusing. Also generally quiet across other fronts.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More Russian artillery fire. Ukrainian forces resumed attacks pressing towards the Russian border but with no significant progress.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation, fog of war in full effect now

Russian forces in the Izyum salient attempted to conduct offensive to the southeast towards Dovhenke and Dolyna. Reports indicate they were not successful.

Russian forces resumed attacks towards the southwest out of Lyman, with limited gains..

The battle for Severodonetsk continues. The fog of war lies heavily over the conflict in part for OPSEC and another just too dynamic of a situation where ground is being traded back and forth (reminds me of some of the US civil war conflicts). Through it all, it appears Russia has control of most to the town, Ukraine forces are holding gains from the counter attack and Russian forces are having difficulty absent supporting artillery.

According to Ukraine sources, Ukrainian army repelled Russian assault attempts at Nahirne, Berestove, Krynychne and Roty - towns along the northern and southern flank of the Popasna salient. These attacks in part seem to be an attempt to close off Urkrain’s supply lines to Severodonetsk.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
More artillery fire by Russian/separatist forces along the loc

Mariupol, now has a CHOLERA epidemic due to destroyed sewage infrastructure and has been quarantined.

Crimea Front -
See RUMINT on Russian offensive.

Russian artillery hit targets between Kherson and Mykolaiv. Ukraine continued pressuring Russian forces in the Kherson Oblast, particularly in the Davydiv Brid region. Russian forces tried unsuccessfully to counter attack Ukrainian forces to halt its advances.

Russian Defense Ministry Shoigu announced establishing road connection between Russia and occupied Crimea via occupied parts of Ukraine, and water supply to Crimea

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.

Russian Territory -
Large explosion reported at an unmanned site in the Belgorod district

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.

BLUF - Intense fighting in Severodonetsk will continue as Russia throws in its reserves to sway the battle. Watching the southern region for any further evidence of a pending Russian offensive northward into the eastern Donbas region. Heavy artillery precursor fires have been occurring over the past week, but not certain if Russia has the manpower and resources necessary to launch a successful attack against a heavily dug in Ukraine force AND continue operations to seize Severodonetsk at the same time.

Russia continues to rumble about NATO/Western resupply and equipment for Ukraine and threatening to expand interdiction efforts. So far it appears Russia has been very unsuccessful. The big question is is putin ready to potential bring NATO directly into the fight with a strike outside Ukraine?
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Moldova/Transnistria -
Very little being reported lately on tensions there.

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Europe / NATO General -

Some 40 warships of NATO member countries on Saturday arrived in the Swedish capital Stockholm for NATO’s BALTOPS 22 exercises that will start in the Baltic Sea tomorrow. Speaking to reporters, Swedish Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist said that his country and Finland will also join the drills.
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Israel -

Syrian state media says that Israel launched airstrikes from the Golan Heights, targeting several sites south of Damascus, causing material damage. It adds that “most” of the missiles were intercepted by air defenses.

OBSERVATION - Targets most likely were Iranian/Hezbollah storage facilities. Only a couple days ago an Iranian Boeing 747 cargo dropped off stuff there, and Israel commonly hits quickly thereafter to prevent distribution/delivery of those items.

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Iran -
The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors is meeting Monday through Friday in Vienna, and is expected to censure Iran for the first time since June 2020.

OBSERVATION - Some think this will have an impact on Iran’s nuclear desires. More likely Iran will deflect and obfuscate even more. With a weak, impotent US, they have their play of the field.

An Iranian missile engineer has been found dead, according to news reports Friday from Iran. The scientist has been identified as Ayoob Entezari, an aerospace engineer linked to drone and missile development at a research center in the Iranian city of Yazd. Initial reports claimed Enterzari died last Tuesday as a result of poisoning, though local authorities have denied poisoning was the cause of death.

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Syria -

RUMINT Russia has raised its military alert status in the face of threats of illegal armed groups in the Syrian region of Idlib following Turkey’s announcement of the start of a military operation in the Arab country.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

Al-Qaida is once again flourishing in the Taliban-ruled “Islamic Emirate,” a news report released by the United Nations found. Al-Qaida is not the only jihadi group spreading its deadly wings in Afghanistan. The Islamic State (ISIS), which become a terrorist group with global reach under President Barack Obama’s watch, is building a stronghold in the Taliban-run country. According to the UN document, “International concern is building over the presence of al-Qaida, IS and ‘many other terrorist groups and fighters on Afghan soil,’”

The UK daily Guardian reported the alarming findings of the UN report:
Al-Qaida has a haven in Afghanistan under the Taliban and “increased freedom of action” with the potential of launching new long-distance attacks in coming years, a UN report based on intelligence supplied by member states says.
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Turkey -

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is scheduled to visit Turkey on Wednesday to discuss Black Sea security, de-mining areas around Ukrainian ports, and reopening Ukrainian grain shipments. Turkish officials say that export operations around the port of Odessa could begin in 3-5 weeks after an agreement is reached.
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Misc of Note -

Cereal prices across Africa surged this week due to a slump in grain exports from Ukraine and disrupted supplies of fertilizer from Russia. Chad’s government declared a food emergency due to a lack of grain supplies. The cost of basic food staples has also risen in Niger with prices soaring over 30%.

OBSERVATION - Food shortages is one of the top reasons for wars and civil unrest. Many African nations are already on the threshold of or have active civil wars. Instability in that region will likely spread ripples across the globe.

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Happy hump day.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Mexico’s president is reviving calls for a continental superstate that would combine North American employers and South American employees – and sideline tens of millions of middle-class Americans.

“I will go in July to visit [President Joe Biden] at the White House and I want to discuss with him the issue of the integration of all America,” President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said at a press conference in Mexico’s presidential palace. He continued: “My position is that, just as how the European community was created … we have to do that in America.”

However, any unification could only come after the United States and southern countries resolve their disagreements, he said: “There has to be a change in the policy, an end to confrontation, an end to hate, an end to threats, the blockades, the foreign interference, and choose brotherhood, good neighbor policies.”
The same continent-wide superstate was pushed in 2001 by President G.W. Bush and Mexico’s then-president, Vicente Fox. Their unpopular “Any Willing Worker” plan would have allowed U.S. employers to easily import low-wage employees from central and south America. It was derailed following the 9/11 attack.
The policy would spike Wall Street and Fortune 500 profits by giving them with cheap foreign workers plus many new foreign consumers.

OBSERVATION - Elimination of national boundaries is a sub set of the GGR’s goals. No need for nations when there is a global leadership. National govts just a conduit for the local implementation of the global govt edicts.

WEF removed an article on the use of soundwaves to control behavior. Tinfoil stuff except it was published by the WEF. Below is the link to the web archived article. Weird, but dangerous implications

https://web.archive.org/web/20181211093235/https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/11/mind-control-ultrasound-neuroscience/

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Economy -

Avg gas prices are at an all time high of 4.91 per gallon.
Contributing to this is the loss of refineries. Six refineries with a capacity of about 801,000 bpd of oil have shuttered over the last two years amid the pandemic, federal data showed. In addition, five refineries with a capacity of 408,100 bpd of oil are idle, the largest number of idle refineries since 2012.

OBSERVATION - Many of these appear to have shut down due to aging equipment, and some by lack of workers following the wuhan shutdown. Compounded with the stack of new fed environmental regulations that make them cost prohibitive to bring back on line.

Yesterday, Yellen testified before the Senate Finance Committee and went further than just admitting she was wrong. Now she admits inflation is going to be with us for a while.
“I do expect inflation to remain high although I very much hope that it will be coming down now,” Yellen told the Senate Finance Committee during a hearing on the agency’s latest budget request. “I think that bringing inflation down should be our number one priority.”

Then she takes a snort from Hunter’s stash -
“We now are entering a period of transition from one of historic recovery to one that can be marked by stable and steady growth,” she said. “Making this shift is a central piece of the president’s plan to get inflation under control without sacrificing the economic gains we’ve made.”

OBSERVATION - This sways from cluelessness to deliberate demolition of the economy. Such a demolition is necessary for the GGR to ride in on their white horse and save the world.

Having gone from a shipping crisis has now apparently swung to the other side, a sudden drop of shipping. The latest ocean container bookings data reveals that despite the strong levels of inbound cargo during the first five months of 2022, import demand is not just softening — it’s dropping off a cliff. Because capacity on the trans-Pacific has remained relatively stable, Drewry’s container spot rates from China to the West Coast have plunged 41% month-over-month to $9,630.

OBSERVATION - Some attribute this to inventory overstock ages - unfortunately in areas not critical like baby food, etc. Target stores reportedly are having sales to move merchandise. OTOH, increased inventory may well be due to tectonic changes in spending driven by sky high and rising gas prices and food prices.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

The Department of Homeland Security on Tuesday issued a warning concerning “the continued heightened threat environment” in the U.S. due to current events and “anti-government/anti authority violent extremism.”
Events such as the November midterm elections and the possibility of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade “could be exploited to justify acts of violence against a range of possible targets,” DHS said in a National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) bulletin.

OBSERVATION - Greater emphasis towards alleged ‘white nationalist” threats, deemphasizing those from the left. Hate to say it, but lays the ground work for any false flag operations prior to the midterms. Further weaponizing the govt against citizens.

For first time, prosecutors are attempting to break a network of violent Antifa cells. A secret grand jury in San Diego has brought 29 felony counts, including conspiracy, against 11 members—naming them explicitly as Antifa - southern California that carried out a brutal attacks on the beach that victimized 16, including minors.

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POLITICAL FRONT -

San Francisco removes Chesa Boudin in historic recall. Even SF progressives couldn’t stand him any longer.

The J6 sham is going prime time this week in a desperate attempt to redefine the narrative for the midterms.

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China -

Chinese Defense - “We firmly reject any Australian military activities in the South China Sea”.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

South Korea and the United States held an air power demonstration involving 20 fighter jets Tuesday, the allies’ latest display of military strength amid signs North Korea may soon conduct a nuclear test.

The drill, held in the sea off South Korea’s western coast, was in response to North Korea’s unprecedented launch of eight ballistic missiles Sunday, according to a statement from South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense.

OBSERVATION - As with the rocket test response, I don’t think this will have much of an impact on Kim.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Russian Navy ships deployed to Baltic sea for drills as NATO holds massive Baltic maneuvers. The scheduled drills at the Baltic Fleet’s naval practice ranges involve over 20 combat ships and gunboats. (TASS)

Russian occupation authorities report that grain stolen in Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine now being transported via railway to Crimea

RUMINT -
Still monitoring rumors of some kind of June 10th deadline for the capture of Severodonetsk.

Logistics -
- Word rumbling around that Russia is going to take PT-76 light amphibious tanks out of mothballs and send them to Ukraine. The PT-76 amphibious light tank equipped with the underpowered 76mm D56T gun was produced from 1951 to 1967 and then was replaced by BMP-1.

- A Vasily Bykov Class patrol ship was observed departing Sevastopol Bay with a SA-15 Tor SAM missile system on its helicopter deck. An interesting development to adapt to lack of ship based ADA capabilities. A lot of discussion on how well this will work.

- Russia transferring more MLRS and 152mm howitzers all the way from Irkutsk to Ukraine.

- Russia is now confirmed to have lost 12% of its entire Ka-52 Attack Helicopter Fleet.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- A Russian mercenary who gained notoriety for butchering prisoners of war and civilians in the Donbas has been killed fighting in Ukraine. Vladimir Andonov, 44, a sabotage and reconnaissance specialist in the ranks of the shadowy Wagner Group, was shot by a sniper near Kharkiv during a night-time mission on June 5, Russian media says. Andonov was known to Russians as ‘Vakha’ or ‘the volunteer from Buryatia’ after the region he was from, but to Ukrainians he was ‘the executioner’ due to massacres he helped carry out during Russia’s first invasion of the country in 2014.

Economic Impact -
- New Zealand imposes sanctions against 44 Russian and Belarusian companies.
- Fiji’s top court allowed U.S. authorities to take possession of a $235 million, 350-foot yacht said to be owned by Russian billionaire Suleiman Kerimov.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Warm and dry over the 10 day forecast period.

Air raid alerts currently for nearly all of Ukraine. This comes roughly six hours after Bear Net was active.

RUMINT -
Russian forces reportedly authorized troops to shoot civilians and indiscriminately destroy any vehicles at checkpoints in Kherson Oblast, likely indicating the growing fear of Ukrainian resistance in the region.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The battle for Severodonetsk continues, with Russia making some gains to retake the city. There is increasing evidence that Ukranian forces are using the counter attack to prepare positions on the west side of the Siverskyi Donets River for eventual fall back after a controlled eventual withdrawal from Severodonetsk.
More concentrated artillery fire access much of the rest of the battle fronts. More missile strikes that have no reported affects.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More Russian artillery fire. Situation on the ground is relatively static.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation, fog of war in full effect now

Russian forces in the Izyum salient attempted to conduct offensive to the southeast towards Dovhenke and Dolyna. Reports indicate they were not successful.

Russian forces resumed attacks towards the southwest out of Lyman, with limited gains. Both bridges over the Donets linking Raihorodok with Lyman were destroyed by Ukraine.

The battle for Severodonetsk continues. Most reports indicate that Russian may have gained some of the city back, but in general control is relatively static to highly fluid. LOL, such is the fog of war. Of course as noted this can change very quickly.

Currently the best available information indicates that Russia has regained control of the residential area of the city while Ukraine controls the industrial center. Russian forces also reportedly control Metolkine and Borivske, two southeastern suburbs of Severodonetsk.

Some analysts are beginning to note that Russia is switching artillery tactics to counter Ukrainan close combat cancelation of support by targeting Ukrainan held sectors with massive artillery strikes. They used this tactic in Mariupol, avoiding potential friendly casualties, by essentially turning those sectors to rubble before sending troops in.

Russian attempts to advance on the city from the southeast, near Toshkivka and Ustynivka have reportedly failed.

Russia fired artillery all around the Popasna salient, in part to support ongoing ground attacks. No significant gains noted.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
More heavy artillery fire by Russian/separatist forces all along the LOC northwest of Donetsk. May be a precursor for a ground offensive.

Crimea Front -
More Russian artillery along the LOC between Mykolaiv to Novovrontokvia - areas of Ukrainan counteroffensive actions - to try to pin Ukrainan forces down.
Russian forces failed to regain advanced positions on the western (now Ukrainian-occupied) bank of the Ihulets River

OSIMINT showed a build up of ADA missiles and artillery on Snake Island.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.

Russian Territory -
Russians increasingly using the Belgorod area as a launching site for Kalibur missiles.

Partisian Resistance *NEW* -
New category as increasing reports come in on partisan attacks within Russian controlled territory. Unconfirmed report from the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces authorized troops to shoot civilians and indiscriminately destroy any vehicles at checkpoints in Kherson Oblast, likely indicating the growing fear of Ukrainian resistance in the region and increasingly draconian measures to restrict Ukrainian movements.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.

BLUF - Intense fighting in Severodonetsk will continue as Russia throws in its reserves to sway the battle.

Ukraine is clearly making preparations to eventually pull back and force the Russians to conduct river crossing operations if they want to pursue the attacks westward. Crossing operations of the Siverskyi Donets River last month were disastrous and resulted in the loss of at least two Russian BTGs. Terrain favors Ukraine, as they control the high ground to the west as well as having good fields of fire on any existing bridges or crossing points. However, it looks like Ukraine has bought a couple of weeks more of luring Russia into a meat grinder - especially forcing them to commit reserves to the battle. Ukraine defenses have held the shoulders of the Severodonetsk pocket open and thwarted Russian advances to gain the tactical advantage that way.

Lots of other force maneuverings on both sides. Many seem to think both sides are waiting for the other to commit to offensive actions before responding. Most likely due on the Russian’s part on the focus on Severodonetsk. Russia hasn’t the personnel and equipment available for a significant operation, though it could locally make some limited counter attacks. Same for Ukraine. But for now it is a wait and see situation.

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Israel -

Hezbollah has recently stepped up construction on military infrastructure near Lebanon’s border with Israel, but the Israeli army will eventually “reduce it to nothing” and make those responsible pay, a senior Israeli general threatened Tuesday. “We will destroy the infrastructure of the Lebanese villages on the line of contact if Hezbollah uses it.”

US envoy to hold maritime talks in Beirut as tensions flare over Israeli rig in disputed waters.

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Iran -

Iran on Tuesday threatened to “raze” the cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa.
“For any mistake made by the enemy, we will raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground by the order of the Supreme Leader,” the Islamic Republic’s ground forces commander, Kiumars Heydari, told the semi-official Iranian Tasnim news agency.
The threat came less than a day after a report on Monday said Thai security forces had thwarted several recent Iranian attempts to harm Western and Israeli targets in the Southeast Asian country — a popular tourist destination for Israelis.

Iran / Mashhad - Yazd train derailment kills at least 17, leaves dozens injured including at least 5 in critical condition. Reports coming out was that there was a caterpillar excavator parked on the rail line. No word on deliberate or accidentally.

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Iraq -

Iraqi efforts to form a new government after the late 2021 parliamentary elections have been blocked by a coalition of various Shia and Kurdish groups, plus a few Sunni factions that oppose a government dominated by powerful Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr. The stalemate benefits Iran and hurts Iraq and Sadr has backed a solution that involves new elections. Given current voter attitudes towards Iran, a new election would create an even more anti-Iran parliament. Sadr is also seeking to assure other political parties that he will continue acting in the best interests of Iraq.
The 2021 election was won by pro-Sadr parties that regard Iran and Iraqi government corruption as the most serious problem facing Iraq. Most Iraqi voters agreed with Sadr, who demanded that all militias be disarmed and disbanded. This demand was aimed at Iran, which has used the militias to create a legal Iran-backed armed force in Iraq.
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Syria -
Al-Assad forces and planes from the Russian Air Force conducted joint military air maneuvers near the Syrian Golan Heights, hours after Israel carried out its fourth raid this month against targets within the areas controlled by the Pro-Assad forces.

OBSERVATION - Russia involvement intended as a warning to Israel, who’s ‘cooperation’ to avoid direct conflict has been degraded lately. Increasing chance of direct Israel - Russia engagements.

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Yesterday was OBE. sorry

Temperature Gauge - Threat Trending Code Color Key

BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Davos meetings are over, now the minions have their adjusted marching orders.

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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION - News largely overwhelmed by Ukraine reporting.

Now, healthy young people who suddenly die without any medical explanation are said to have died from Sudden Adult Death Syndrome (SADS) rather than from vaccines. The UK Daily Mail has published an article detailing this new so-called “syndrome” which is of course just a convenient label to mask the true underlying cause of these sudden deaths. The title of their article is, “Healthy young people are dying suddenly and unexpectedly from a mysterious syndrome – as doctors seek answers through a new national register,” and it says that everyone under the age of 40, “…may potentially be at risk of having Sudden Adult Death Syndrome (SADS).”
All people under the age of 40 are now supposed to “get their hearts checked,” while oblivious doctors claim to be searching for the “genetic cause” behind SADS.

OBSERVATION - The “medical” community trying to cover their arses when it is pretty evident that wuhan jabs are the source of these “sudden” deaths.

The U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced that it cited 69 American hospitals for failing to comply with the Biden administration’s mandate that federally-funded healthcare facilities require their employees to submit to COVID-19 vaccination.

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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Inflation continues to be the prime source of concern for the US and the rest of the world. Global food shortage concerns are sparking unrest in developing nations.

US inflation jumps to 8.6% in May, the highest since 1981.

The national average price of gas in the U.S. soared to a new record-high on Thursday, surpassing $5 per gallon for the first time ever, according to data from GasBuddy.
OBSERVATION- Here in my corner of the redoubt, prices have shot up 50 cents per gallon in one week alone.

U.S. natural gas prices hit a 14-year high this week at $9 per million British Thermal Unit (MMBtu). The increase represents almost triple the $3.5 per MMBtu in 2021. The rising price for natural gas is a result of tighter energy availability due to disrupted Russian exports and diverted U.S. supplies.

American executives overwhelmingly believe that a recession will strike in early 2023, according to a new CNBC survey of chief financial officers released Thursday. Most respondents — 68% — believe a recession will occur in the first half of 2023. “No CFO forecast a recession any later than the second half of next year, and no CFO thinks the economy will avoid a recession,” CNBC said of the 22 survey respondents. More than 40% of CFOs believe inflation — which is currently near four-decade highs of 8.3% — is the main external risk factor for their business. Meanwhile, 23% point to Federal Reserve policy, and 14% point to the war in Ukraine. Growth prospects worldwide are also expected to be lackluster. Earlier this week, the World Bank cut its global growth forecasts for 2022 and warned of the “sharpest slowdown in 80 years.

OBSERVATION - Many vectors are converging economically and reading the tea leaves shows a serious window of potential economic failures in the near term. Hate being a doomer, but I am increasingly concerned (as stated numerous times) about the situation this fall/winter.

Top lithium producer Albemarle Corp (ALB.N) may have to shut its Langelsheim plant in Germany if the metal used in electric vehicle batteries is declared a hazardous material by the European Union, its finance chief told Reuters.
Lithium’s pivotal role in electric vehicles makes it an important commodity in meeting global targets to cut carbon emissions, and it was added to the EU’s list of critical raw materials in 2020.
However, the European Commission is currently assessing a proposal by the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) to classify lithium carbonate, chloride and hydroxide as dangerous for human health.

OBSERVATION - Guess we’ll have to move to Flintstone mobiles next.
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Biden’s policies guarantee uncontrollable flood of illegals

The Biden administration is planning to send illegal immigrants awaiting immigration proceedings deeper into the United States to deal with the surge in border crossings, according to internal documents obtained by NBC News.
DHS plan is to use federal funding to send migrants to shelters in Los Angeles, Albuquerque, Houston, and Dallas, according to NBC News.
More than 234,088 migrants tried to cross the southern U.S. border in April, topping March’s 22-year high of 221,000-plus, according to internal Customs and Border Protection data obtained by NBC.

OBSERVATION - With the potential revoking of Title 42, instead of preventing illegals from gaining access to the country, biden et al is doing all it can to facilitate access.
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Biden/Harris watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade. Harris’ mental capabilities are also questionable.

Another day, another biden faceplant on the stairway going to AF1.

Lots of gaffs with his “interview” with Jimmy Kimmel.
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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending upward *updated 03/25/22*
DISCUSSION - Proabort protests persist and show a growing trend as the potential release date for the decision approaches.

Proabort violence and protests have started to rise again after a short lull. This due largely to the believed soon release of the USSC decision. USSC conservative justices have come under increasing personal threat, revealed this week in the stopped assassination attempt on justice Kavanaugh early Wednesday morning. The AG refuses to enforce clear laws to protect the justices and republicans have submitted legislation to provide additional protections - blocked by democrats. The Democratic elites have long supported violence as a form of protest, see Schumer’s 2020 threat against the conservatives on the court.

In a late-night talk show “interview” with Jimmy Kimmel, Biden also cracked “a joke” about how Republicans should be sent to jail.

OBSERVATION - Unguarded moment of truth. We’ve already seen how biden DOJ et al have taken steps to overtly arrest and detain political opponents. There is clearly a two - tier justice system in place with biden and half the country is not amused at his ‘joke’

With the primaries generally over, I expect Antifa et al to start swinging to violent political actions against Republican candidates for congress (in particular).

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CYBER/CANCEL CULTURE FRONT -

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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT - YELLOW *updated 01-28-22*

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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*

Thursday’s “prime time” J6 panel presentation has been dealt with a lot on FR. If nothing else its overtly partisan and one sided presentation has only widened the gap between red and blue. Joe American is not concerned about J6 - he is concerned about the skyrocketing costs of just surviving.

The Department of Justice has asked a federal judge to prevent former presidential adviser Peter Navarro from discussing publicly his recent arrest and litigating his legal case “through the media,” it was reported.
“DOJ is asking Judge Mehta to quickly enter a protective order to guard against disclosure of evidence in Peter NAVARRO’s case. They say his ‘extrajudicial’ statements to press and on Tucker Carlson’s show reveal his intent to litigate his case through the media,” Politico’s Kyle Cheney tweeted Wednesday morning.

OBSERVATION - as if politico, et al isn’t going to litigate the case thru the media.

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Domestic Terror - BLUE
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued a terror threat bulletin Tuesday warning that online forums harboring domestic violent extremist content and conspiracy theories have encouraged copycat attacks in the wake of the mass shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas.
Analysts from DHS’ Office of Intelligence & Analysis assess that these online platforms have also “seized on the event to attempt to spread disinformation and incite grievances, including claims it was a government-staged event meant to advance gun control measures.”
As analysts probe recent tragedies in search of common factors or motives, researchers have uncovered a disturbing trend among gunmen of fatal mass shootings, nationwide.

OBSERVATION - DHS is ignoring that the ones currently committing these acts are predominantly from the left. They are using their own misleading narrative to maintain a push against conservative/right leaning citizens.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*
On-going NATO support operations to Ukraine.

Russian continues to threaten western nation’s support to Ukraine with potential direct actions/attacks.
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward
DISCUSSION - Suffering severe economic issues while trying to build forces to control not only Taiwan but the western pacific is straining its resources.

China denies providing any military assistance to Russia. China trying to dodge sanctions for doing so.

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North Korea - ORANGE tending upward (UPDATED 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - NUKE test watch continues as work at the test site continues and now under Wuhan lockdowns

No significant new information on either.
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Japan - BLUE trending upward (updated 03-25-22)
DISCUSSION - Japan continues to upgrade its military and alliances in the face of Chinese aggression and NK nuclear aspirations.

Japan in recent is reaching out more to western countries / NATO to counter balance against China.
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Russia - RED * updated 02-18-22*
DISCUSSION - ONGOING - Into the fourth month of the war against Ukraine.

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia’s offensive to seize the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine has now shrunk down to capturing the city of Sieverodonetsk.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable

Putin babbling about Peter the Great, says it’s his destiny to take back former Russian territory.

The United Kingdom’s foreign minister Liz Truss said the death sentences handed to Britons Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner was “an egregious breach of the Geneva convention.”
The two men were captured fighting with the Ukrainian army and tried as mercenaries by a court in the pro-Russian breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic in Ukraine.

OBSERVATION - This could get ugly in a number of ways, with reprisals by Ukraine and GB

RUMINT -
Is Russia preparing to implement Martial law soon? The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia is creating a new department to enforce martial law, ministry spokesperson Irina Volk said Tuesday. Among other things, the powers of the GUOR (Main Directorate of Rapid Response) will include “ensuring the legal regimes of martial law,” Volk said, according to The Moscow Times.
The department is being created in response to a decree Russian President Vladimir Putin issued on Monday, the Times reports. The Times reports that Putin issued the decree to reform the structure of the ministry because changing conditions have impacted the functioning of the internal affairs bodies.

Personnel Issues -
- According to the Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian officials in Luhansk Oblast have had to reduce their mobilization efforts due to widespread protests against aggressive mobilization efforts that have taken a toll on the labor market in Luhansk. Attacks on Russian military recruitment offices are also continuing.

Equipment Issues -
- According to the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) , Russian forces are mining Kherson Oblast with mines from the 1950s to defend against recent Ukrainian counterattacks in northwestern Kherson Oblast/

Economic Hits -
- The Bank of Russia lowered the rate to 9.5% (from the previous 11%), returning it to the pre-sanction level

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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Ukraine into its fourth month.

WEATHER FORECAST - Drying and warm conditions in the 10 day forecast.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian forces continue to slowly capture ground in Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. Conditions along other fronts relatively static. Ukraine has demonstrated the ability to successfully launch local counter attacks/offensives and Russia is being forced to readjust its combat elements to counter, taking away resources from the Severodonetsk effort.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
Russian aviation conducted airstrikes near Hudove of Sumy region, also shelled Bachivsk, Khodyne and Slavhorod,

Eastern (Khariv) front -
Russian continued to hit Khariv region with artillery and bombs.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation. Russian troops shelled 23 settlements in Luhansk and Donetsk region in last 24 hours.

Russian forces are still stuck in the Izyum salient, with failed attempts to break out further towards the south and southeast..

More concentrated Russian artillery strikes southwest of Lyman as Russian forces continue to press southward in an effort to close the Sieverodonetsk pocket from the north.

Fighting continues as Russian forces attempt to establish full control over Sieverodonetsk. It is estimated that Russia controls about 70% of the city - primarily the residential areas while Ukraine forces are centered on the industrial area. Russia attempting to cover troop advancements with artillery barrages.

Russian forces are continuing to try to push northward from the Popasna salient to try to close the Sieverodonetsk pocket from the south with little to no success. Russian forces continued unsuccessful efforts to take control of Toshkivka to drive north toward Lysychansk and avoid crossing the Siverskyi Donets River from within Severodonetsk. Another goal is the capture of Bahkmut, which not only could provide the means to cut off logistics for the Sieverodonetsk pocket but pivot the attack westward.

The following link provides a map with relatively good current disposition of forces and locations.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FU1vsyeWYAw9C1i?format=jpg&name=large

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian artillery struck targets along the LOC west of Donetsk. I still suspect that this is preparation for an eventual Russian / Separatist forces attempt to launch an offensive.

Crimea Front -
Relatively static over the past couple days. Ukrainians are continuing to chip away at territory seized by Russia earlier in the war. Russian positions north of the Dnipro are under particular pressure. Russia continues to position forces to block further Ukrainian advances that threaten Kherson.

Significant build up by Russia on Snake Island. Island is key to blocking any shipping out of free Ukrainian ports - in particular grain shipments.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.

Russian Territory -
Russian media report clashes with suspected saboteur group in Podyvotie village of Briansk region

OUTLOOK -

By shear mass and tons of artillery Russia will eventually accomplish the capture of Sieverodonetsk. So many observers are wondering just why Ukraine is fighting so hard to retain control of this city. I think the partial answer is to bleed Russian forces as much as possible. Urban fighting has been to Ukraine’s advantage so far and this battle is no different. With a smaller force, they can keep Russian bogged down with higher casualty rates (although in this battle Ukraine is suffering high casualties too), they think they will be better set up for later counter offensive actions throughout the country. Within this desired kill zone of Russians are many of its top line units and mercenaries. They have basically no equivalent replacement, so kill them off, it reduces Russia’s ability to conduct further offensive actions elsewhere. VDV and Wagner groups have been the point of the spear in this region so far.

If the pocket becomes threatened by advances from Izyum or Popasna, I think they will be ready to tactically withdraw and not stage another Mariupol stand. But at current rates, I don’t see this happening any time soon.

One last factor is the arrival of western combat systems that could change the local battle - primarily the artillery. Right now Russia has Ukraine overwhelmed in that area. However, longer ranged and more accurate western systems could put counter battery fire into play and disrupt/destroy Russian capabilities, evening the playing field.

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Moldova/Transnistria - ORANGE *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - This category added this week as false flag events hit Russian controlled Transnistria and Russia agitates this small country.

The Russian Foreign Ministry warns of the “dangerousness” of NATO’s arms transfer to Moldova.

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Belarus - ORANGE *updated 04-22-22*
DISCUSSION - Managing to keep its forces in country and not commit to ground combat in Ukraine.

Earlier this week Belarus announced the start of combat readiness classes, which will check the transfer of the armed forces to the wartime organization.

OBSERVATION - A degree of saber rattling, but I don’t expect Belarus to get involved any deeper into Ukraine than what they have already.
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Poland - ORANGE trending upward *updated 3-18-22*
DISCUSSION - Poland remains in Russian crosshairs for its operation in resupplying Ukrainian forces.

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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - NATO nations continue to funnel war supplies to Ukraine.

Inclusion of Sweden and Finland still blocked by Turkey. Rest of Nato supportive of inclusion and already working to integrate their forces.
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Pakistan - ORANGE *Updated 5-3-22*

Extent of civil unrest not getting out, but likely still serious.

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Israel - ORANGE trending upward *updated 04-01-22*
DISCUSSION - Iran is moving to cross redlines and Israel may soon act.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett arrived on Thursday in Abu Dhabi on a surprise visit. He meet with the new President Mohamed Bin Zayed. Emirati foreign minister at the airport

The Israeli Air Force has reportedly reached “a breakthrough” that allows their F-35 jets to fly to Iran and back without refuelling. The IAF also developed a large precision bomb that fits inside the belly of the F-35 without comprising its stealth capabilities.

OBSERVATION - Increased watch on this area. With Iran now essentially kicking out IAEA and with he ability to achieve 90% purity for Uranium in a very, very short time, Israel will be forced to wait no longer for international pressures and take matters into their own hands. The “Chariots of Fire” exercise shows they are preparing and in many ways ready for the many peripheral consequences of a strike on Iranian facilities in addition to overcoming the logistical challenges. We could see a total break out of war by the end of the year if the current trend continues.
.
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Iran - ORANGE and increasing *(updated 03-25-22)*

Iran on Thursday dealt a near-fatal blow to chances of reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal as it began removing essentially all the International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring equipment installed under the deal, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said.

International Atomic Energy Agency says there is no longer any possibility of stopping Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold.

Iran had warned of retaliation if the IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors passed a resolution drafted by the United States, France, Britain and Germany criticizing Tehran for its continued failure to explain uranium traces found at undeclared sites. The resolution was passed by a crushing majority late on Wednesday.
Iran told the agency overnight it planned to remove equipment including 27 IAEA cameras as of Thursday, which is “basically all” the extra monitoring equipment installed under the 2015 deal going beyond Iran’s core obligations to the agency, Grossi told a news conference.

OBSERVATION - Iran is entering the red zone. See OBSERVATION under Israel.
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Lebanon - YELLOW
Continued economic and political turmoil has caused Hezbollah serious headaches and distractions.

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Syria - YELLOW
Syria has suspended flight at Damascus International Airport for 48 hours, following an Israeli bombing that targeted 3 sites of Iranian militias in the vicinity of the airport. Satellite image of Damascus International Airport shows fresh impacts of airstrikes on both runways today. This is the second such attack this week.

Turkish preparations for an offensive in Syria grow as local sources report large convoys of Turkish aligned Syrian National Army (SNA) troops seen in the northern Aleppo city of Azaz yesterday, in preparation for Turkish-led military operations against PKK enclaves in northern Syria

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Turkey - YELLOW *updated 04-29-22*
DISCUSSION - Turkey mostly in the news now blocking NATO membership of Sweden and Finland.

Still blocking Sweden and Finland entrance to NATO. Continuing anti-Kurdish operations in Syria and Iraq.

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Central America General - BLUE

Nicaraguan President José Daniel Ortega has authorized the temporary presence of Russian military personnel for humanitarian purposes. Military from the USA, Mexico, Cuba, Venezuela, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and the Dominican Republic are also said to come to the country.

OBSERVATION - Expansion of Russian and Chinese influence in the America’s will eventually place stress and pressures on the US as a new front in the rejuvenated and developing cold war.

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Folks, each of these areas may appear not to have much direct correlation with threats the US - a key basis of the start of these Threat Matrix series. However, the overall view of these situations combined show that our country is in grave peril as things come unraveled both internally and externally (foreign policy ). There is just soooo much crap out there that I filter through on a daily basis I never dreamed I would have to do just a few years ago in the before times that it is easy to become depressed. But to be forewarned is to be forearmed.

This fall, probably centered on the October-November time frame, may be a serious tipping point for the country. Get ready now.
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Wuhan virus -

Just digging into this more. Similar argument servicemembers recently used to overturn the military jab order - military didn’t use the approved ‘vaccine’ but another. Bait and switch after a fashion. In August of 2021 Pfizer and the FDA crafted on paper a legally distinct COVID “vaccine,” named it Comirnaty, and declared it approved. But the shot you got, the only injection anyone could or would get, was still under Emergency Use Authorization. That never changed. Apparently, this week, the CDC quietly issued a Pfizer update that Comirnaty will never be produced. The approved version of the “vaccine” only existed on paper.

“Pfizer received initial FDA BLA license on 8/23/2021 for its COVID-19 vaccine for use in individuals 16 and older (COMIRNATY). At that time, the FDA published a BLA package insert that included the approved new COVID-19 vaccine tradename COMIRNATY and listed 2 new NDCs (0069-1000-03, 0069-1000-02) and images of labels with the new tradename. These NDCs will not be manufactured. Only NDCs for the subsequently BLA approved tris-sucrose formulation will be produced.”

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Economy -
Stocks dropped on Friday morning after a highly anticipated inflation report showed a faster-than-expected rise in prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday shed 880 points.

A Michigan police force has switched to handling non-urgent calls by phone because it cannot cope with the soaring price of gas. Isabella County Sheriff Michael Main alerted locals in a since-deleted Facebook post that his force “is feeling the pain at the pump as well.”
“We have exhausted what funds were budgeted for fuel with several months to go before the budget reset,” the sheriff wrote Tuesday as the state-wide average rose above $5.20 a gallon.

OBSERVATION - Many in the preparedness community recognize the axiom that “your are your own first responder”.

The Trafalgar Group finds that most Americans think the Biden administration is intentionally driving up gasoline prices. In this survey, over 56% of independents say the Biden administration is deliberately driving gas prices up.

OBSERVATION - I guess I’m not the only one who sees that the economic and social chaos enveloping the country is not due to ineptitude of the biden handlers, but a deliberate action to eventually force globalist goals on us. In this case Democrats have been acknowledging that stratospheric energy prices are part of their planned “transition” to an allegedly green economy.

White-hot inflation has forced the average American household to cough up an extra $460 per month, as surging prices for food and fuel put family budgets across the nation under strain.
Moody’s Analytics senior economist Ryan Sweet calculated the figure based on data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that showed the Consumer Price Index had jumped 8.6% in the 12-month period ending May 31 – the largest increase since December 1981.
“Having inflation at 8.5% on a year-ago basis, compared with the 2.1% average growth in 2018 and 2019, is costing the average household $346.67 per month to purchase the same basket of goods and services as they did last year,” Sweet told The Post. “However, the pure cost for households for having inflation running at 8.5% is $460.42 per month.”

OBSERVATION - Now the flip side, real weekly earnings–basically, wages factoring in inflation–have declined 3.9% over the last year. This is hardly the “ strongest, fastest, most wide-spread economic recovery America has ever experienced”.

Freeport LNG, operator of one of the largest U.S. export plants producing liquefied natural gas (LNG), will shut for at least three weeks following an explosion at its Texas Gulf Coast facility, raising the risk of shortages especially in Europe.

Freeport LNG, which provides around 20% of U.S. LNG processing, disclosed the shutdown late on Wednesday after appraising damage to the massive facility. U.S. natural gas markets fell as traders anticipated the outage would lower domestic demand.

OBSERVATION - The US has fewer NG and petroleum facilities than just a couple years ago - as biden policies make it too expensive to build new or upgrade existing. Just the loss of one facility has major impacts.
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Invasion of Illegals -
The United States on Friday unveiled a long list of measures to confront the migration crisis as President Joe Biden and fellow leaders prepared to issue a joint declaration thrashed out at a fractious Summit of the Americas.
The announcements on the final day of the Los Angeles summit are part of a U.S.-led pact dubbed the “Los Angeles Declaration” and aimed at creating incentives for countries taking in large numbers of migrants and spreading responsibility across the region. But some analysts are skeptical that the pledges, some of which appear mostly symbolic, are meaningful enough to make a significant difference.

OBSERVATION - Just like biden is doing everything to keep gasoline and food prices high, he is doing what he can to keep uncontrolled illegal immigration going. This declaration is ‘eyewash’ as the great one used to say “Symbolism over substance”.

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CW2/Domestic violence -
Antifa affiliated “Ruth Sent Us” is indirectly calling for the harassment, attacking and even the condoning of assassination of conservative USSC Judges. Most recently, calling for action against Justice Amy Barrett thru doxxing her address, children’s school and churches she attends. The group took to Twitter to advocate for protests outside the home, church and children’s school of Justice Barrett. Twitter is allowing this to occur, in violations of their policies and rules.
Silence from biden, Merrick Garland and other Democrats is condoning the actions is loud.

OBSERVATION - IDK if this is going to generate an equivalent pushback from the right if a violent act is carried out against any of the Justices. Clearly one was in the process of being attempted on Kavanaugh by a leftist before he was arrested. Right now democrats are very pleased with threats against the justices.

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POLITICAL FRONT -
The J6 show hearings were a ratings bomb, with reruns of TV sitcoms getting higher ratings.

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China -

Beijing will “not hesitate to start a war” if Taiwan declares independence, China’s defence minister warned his US counterpart Friday, the latest salvo between the superpowers over the island.
The warning came as Wei Fenghe held his first face-to-face meeting with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore.
Austin for his part warned China to cease regional destabilization efforts.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korea has named a top nuclear negotiator Choe Son Hui as its first female foreign minister, state media reported Saturday. Her appointment comes as Pyongyang ramps up its weapons testing program. North Korea’s state news agency KCNA reported her appointment on Saturday, shortly after the conclusion of a three-day Workers’ Party’s Central Committee in Pyongyang on Friday.
Choe played a key role during North Korea’s negotiations over its nuclear program with the United States. The 57-year-old career diplomat, formerly the deputy foreign minister, also speaks strong English.

OBSERVATION - Policy wonks may have more to say about this but it seems NK is strengthening its hand on the diplomatic front with an experienced player.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
Logistics -

- UK Defense Ministry: Russia likely running short of ‘more precise modern missiles,’ resorting to 5.5 ton missiles, that are highly inaccurate and can therefore cause civilian casualties and significant collateral damage. These are 1960 vintage KH-22 ASM that are very inaccurate.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Still abundant unconfirmed reports of difficulties getting Russians to sign up for this security action.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Warm and dryer over the 10 day forecast period.

Ukraine calling to the west for more artillery weapons and rounds. They claim they are being outgunned 10 to 1 by Russian forces and have used up most of their ammunition.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The battle for Severodonetsk continues, with Russia making some gains to retake the city. There is increasing evidence that Ukranian forces are using the counter attacks to prepare positions on the west side of the Siverskyi Donets River for eventual fall back after a controlled eventual withdrawal from Severodonetsk.
More concentrated artillery fire access much of the rest of the battle fronts. More missile strikes that have no reported affects.
More counter offensive actions by Ukraine, pushing Russian forces back in the area northwest of Kherson.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More Russian artillery fire. Situation on the ground is relatively static.

The Ukrainian General Staff stated that 30 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) are now operating in the Kharkiv Oblast, for eventual operations out of Izyum. However, these BTGs are believed to have likely suffered heavy combat losses and may be comprised of the remnants of other units.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation. Russians continue to shell and bomb throughout the region.

Russian forces are still stuck in the Izyum salient, with failed attempts to break out further towards the south and southeast.

More concentrated Russian artillery strikes southwest of Lyman as Russian forces continue to press southward in an effort to close the Sieverodonetsk pocket from the north. However, those assaults have stalled overnight.

Fierce fighting reported as Russian forces attempt to establish full control over Sieverodonetsk. It is estimated that Russia controls about 70% of the city - primarily the residential areas while Ukraine forces are centered on the industrial area. Largely unchanged from yesterday. Russia attempting to cover troop advancements with artillery barrages. Fog of war preventing further accurate assessment of the ground situation.

Russian forces are continuing to try to push northward from the Popasna salient to try to close the Sieverodonetsk pocket from the south with little to no success. Heavy Russian artillery on the northeast margin of the Popasna salient. Most likely in support of Russian moves to the northeast of Novotoshkivske.

The following link provides a map with relatively good current disposition of forces and locations.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FU1vsyeWYAw9C1i?format=jpg&name=large

Crimea Front -
Ukrainian military pushed Russian troops 5-7 kms further from Zaporizhzhia.

Southeast of Mykolaiv Ukrainian forces are conducting a counteroffensive in the direction towards Kherson, Ukrainan forces reportedly recaptured the village of Tavriyske.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.

Russian Territory -
Military engineering base caught fire in Klintsy district of Bryansk region. Military engineering vehicles parked south of Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast (45 km from the Ukrainian border) - had at least 8 vehicles, including MRS-BT armored vehicles maintenance and repair workshops and cargo trucks destroyed by the suspicious fire.

Partisian Resistance *NEW* -
New category as increasing reports come in on partisan attacks within Russian controlled territory.

The medical system in Mariupol is reportedly near collapse as a result of mismanagement by Russian authorities.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.

BLUF - Intense fighting in Severodonetsk will continue as Russia throws in its reserves to sway the battle.

Pretty repetitive as the fight has largely developed into a WW1 style slug fest in Severodonetsk. Details of the battle are pretty sketchy given the fog of war and rapidly changing tactical situations. One key point are casualties. Ukraine says theirs are upwards of 100/day. Historical averages of losses for an attacking army are roughly three times that of the defenders - putting Russia in the 300/day range. At this stage, Ukrainian forces have mobilized about 1 million - Russia is struggling to get any to fight. So as far as cannon fodder, Ukraine has more depth and can absorb the punishment more than Russia. Where Ukraine is weak is artillery, as noted above.

Russian attacks elsewhere remain largely road-bound and confined to narrow frontages, and Russian forces will likely struggle to leverage any new weight of numbers. This is evident in attacks from the northern and southern margins of the Severodonetsk pocket not getting very far. This may change as the rainy season has ebbed and dryer conditions start to prevail. However, the topography to the west of Severodonetsk favors Ukrainan defensive actions.

Russia has exposed many areas to Ukraine counter attacks, the most vulnerable appear to be around Kherson. An Ukrainan break out here would endanger Crimean supply routes for Russia.

It has also stripped forces needed for an offense to try to capture the rest of the Donbas. However, it looks like Russia/separatists are trying to do artillery prep for an offensive towards the north.

Expect that Severodonetsk will be grudgingly yielded to Russia over the next couple weeks. But then Mauripol held out for months.
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Europe / NATO General -

See TURKEY below threatening Greece.
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Israel -
This past week’s bombing of Damascus airport was designed to prevent Iranian planes carrying military equipment from landing according to Israeli sources.

OBSERVATION - this is a temporary issue, as Syria will be able to make repairs. It is a message to Syria that the consequences for allowing Iran to utilize its facilities to bring in supplies that are designed to build up for an eventual attack on Israel will not be tolerated. So that in addition to striking Iranian/ Hezbollah storage and related facilities, Syrian infrastructure will be attacked as well. This may next lead to targeting Syrian ADA systems.
If Iran wants to continue to try flying materials into the Damascus area, they will be forced to use smaller aircraft and smaller airports. May make them even more vulnerable to interdict.
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Iran -
Venezuelan President Maduro arrived in Tehran to meet with Iranian leadership. This is timed to a Venezuela and Iran signing of a 20 year co-operation agreement, the deal includes co-operation in oil, petrochemicals, defence, agriculture, tourism, and culture.
OBSERVATION - The two countries are already in good relations over the common foe - the US. Let year Iran shipped several tanker loads of fuel to the country. Rumors persist that Iran is establishing a forward base in Venezuela to push their brand of islam in the region as well as a launching point against the US if necessary.
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Syria -
See Israel above on airport attack.

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Turkey -

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan issued a warning to Greece this week to demilitarize some of the islands in the Aegean Sea where they have recently been expanding their military footprint. The Tyrant of Turkey insisted that he was “not joking” in making these demands and clearly seemed to be implying that there would be military consequences if the Greeks don’t comply.
Greece argues that Turkey has deliberately misinterpreted the treaties regarding armed forces on its eastern islands and says it has legal grounds to defend itself following hostile actions by Ankara including a long-standing threat of war if it extends its territorial waters.

OBSERVATION - All the craziness in the world seems to be prodding Turkey into further trying to expand it claimed status as the new caliphate of the region. Turkey and Greece have been at it for a very long time. Cant say that conflict is impending over this latest, but Turkey has been nibbling around the edges looking for a good excuse.
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Venezuela -

See Iran above. Maduro a few days ago was in Turkey meeting with Erdogan.
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Wuhan virus -

Beijing and Shanghai were placed under a new COVID-19 alert Thursday after government health officials discovered new cases of the virus. Several districts in Shanghai and Beijing’s most populous district went back under lockdown. News of the lockdowns tanked Chinese stocks. China’s blue-chip CSI300 index ended 1.1 percent lower at the close. Authorities have also been closing businesses whose employees did not undergo daily COVID testing. The new lockdowns, part of China’s continued zero-COVID policy, consist of two days of confinement followed by 12 days of rigorous testing. (FO)

OBSERVATION - New lockdowns are not what the Chinese economy needs or wants at this time.

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Economy -

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is continuing to spread among birds in Europe and North America, with thousands of birds killed by both the virus and preventative measures. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), over 1,400 wild birds and nearly 40 million domesticated birds have been confirmed as infected with HPAI.

OBSERVATION - Expect continued shortages and high prices for poultry and related products for the next year. Its going to take a while for this flu to burn out and flocks rebuilt.

U.S. Treasury yields popped Friday, led by short-term rates, after the release of hotter-than-expected inflation data raised concern over a possible recession.
The 2-year rate jumped more than 24 basis points to 3.065%, reaching its highest level since 2008.

OBSERVATION - Same economists who were saying inflation was only ‘transitory’ are saying inflation has peaked and will be heading down. May’s numbers indicate just the opposite.

Transportation Secretary Buttigieg, proposed new electric vehicle (EV) charging rules. Under the proposed program, interstate highways will have an EV charging station every 50 miles and no more than 1 mile from the exits. The administration believes this will help the country meet 2030 green energy mandates.

OBSERVATION - if all vehicles were electric, this wouldn’t even begin to address the problem. Who’s gonna pay for them and how will drivers be charged of the electricity? Can also view as a GGR designed action.
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Invasion of Illegals -

Biden initiated a policy through the Department of Homeland Security that was designed to greatly limit which illegal immigrants Border Patrol officers and ICE agents were allowed to arrest and deport. That order has now been negated by US District Court Judge Drew Tipton in Texas, who states that the DHS had no authority to issue a September 2021 memo which directed immigration officials to focus only on illegals that are deemed a “threat to public safety or national security”

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Biden / Harris watch -

More rumblings in the democrat wings that perhaps Biden should step aside in 2024 (and announce his decision to do so after the midterms). Even the leftist flag ship, the NYT, is questioning his furtherance in office. His poll ratings are dragging the rest of the part down into the abyss and if congress flips as currently projected by the pundits, his reign will essentially be reduced entirely to executive orders.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

About 31 members of the fascist Patriot Front group were arrested in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho Saturday, reportedly on conspiracy to riot charges stemming from law enforcement penetration of group chats by the group about plans to disrupt a gay pride event being held in a city park. An officer is heard on video telling observers the group had shields and weapons in the back of a U-Haul truck they were being transported in to the pride event.

OBSERVATION - A lot of commentary flying about that this was a staged arrest or that feds influenced the action. Many out there believe Patriot Front is an FBI creation or heavily influenced by the feds to falsely smear conservatives as racists, fascists and terrorists.What is known is that Antifa also was present at the gay rally and most weren’t arrested.
THIS BRINGS OUT AN IMPORTANT POINT - Those involved in similar groups had better realize the feds are deep within your organization - this is one of the tools that could be used for a crackdown on ‘white nationalism’ etc targeted by DoJ. Don’t accept that all your associates are down for the cause.

Rallies against gun violence have been held in Washington, New York, and dozens of other US cities on Saturday, with activists attempting to pressure lawmakers into tightening gun control laws in the wake of several deadly mass shootings.
The largest ‘March for Our Lives’ protest was staged at the Washington Monument, in the capital, although the estimated crowd of 30,000 was smaller than the organizers expected to gather.

OBSERVATION - If 30K is all they can muster in dark blue DC, then the dems hopes for this to be an election changer are pretty slim.
Also of note, Antifa has been supportive of these actions. Please note - in the relatively quiet times since the 2020 riots Antifa associated groups have been actively promoting and conducting gun training for supporters. Obviously, they are not concerned about any new gun laws and at their core leadership levels have already planned to integrate guns into future marches/actions. This has already been seen at some protests this year where calls included showing up armed.
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Cyber Warfare -

The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) issued a joint alert Wednesday along with the FBI and NSA regarding Chinese exploitation of U.S. telecommunications systems. The alert detailed the “targeting and compromise of major telecommunications companies and network service providers and the top vulnerabilities – primarily Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVEs) – associated with network devices routinely exploited by the cyber actors since 2020.” According to officials, the vulnerabilities are in products from Cisco, Netgear, and other major equipment manufacturers and permit surreptitious rerouting of internet traffic to threat actors in China. (FO)
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China -

See Wuhan above on new outbreak and lockdowns

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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RUMINT -
- Reports that Russian forces have extended their war planning for the next 120 days, extending to October 2022. Russian forces reportedly will adjust the plan depending on their successes in Donbas and noted that the Russian General Staff is modifying their invasion plans almost every month. Evidence that the quick victory will not be so quick.

Logistics -
- Partially under RUMINT, Russia claims to have an additional 40 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in reserve, after having already deployed 103 BTGs to Ukraine. The quality and military readiness of these BTGs s are in question.

Economic Impact -
- Sanctions have hit the Russian auto sector as the availability of new vehicles decreases and spare parts have in some instances become unobtainable.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Warm and thunderstorms over the 10 day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The battle for Severodonetsk continues, with Russia making some gains to retake the city. There is increasing evidence that Ukranian forces are using the counter attacks to prepare positions on the west side of the Siverskyi Donets River for eventual fall back after a controlled eventual withdrawal from Severodonetsk.
More concentrated artillery fire access much of the rest of the battle fronts. More missile strikes that have no reported affects.
More counter offensive actions by Ukraine, pushing Russian forces back in the area northwest of Kherson.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces fired on Kharkiv City and Ukrainian positions northeast of the city. Ukrainian forces targeted Russian ammunition depots in occupied settlements south of Kharkiv City. Otherwise the situation on the ground is relatively static.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation. Russians continue to shell and bomb throughout the region. Russia continued to launch attacks through the sector.

Russian forces are still stuck in the Izyum salient, with failed attempts to break out further towards the south and southeast. Russian’s shelled Ukrainian positions along the southern and western margin of the salient.

More concentrated Russian artillery strikes southwest of Lyman as Russian forces continue to press southward in an effort to close the Sieverodonetsk pocket from the north. Russian forces launched offensive operations against Toshkivka, likely in an effort to secure the western Siverskyi Donets riverbank. This is important given that the terrain west of the Siverskyi Donets is marshy with limited crossing points. This would further threaten Ukrainian supply/ retreat routes to/from Sieverodonetsk.

Fierce fighting continues as Russian forces attempt to establish full control over Sieverodonetsk. It is estimated that Russia controls about 70% of the city - primarily the residential areas while Ukraine forces are centered on the industrial area. Largely unchanged from yesterday. Russia attempting to cover troop advancements with artillery barrages. Fog of war preventing further accurate assessment of the ground situation.

Russian forces are continuing to try to push northward from the Popasna salient to try to close the Sieverodonetsk pocket from the south with little to no success. Russian attacks towards Vrubivka, Mykolaivka and Vasylivka, on the northeastern side of the salient were reportedly repelled according to Ukraine sources

The following link provides a map with relatively good current disposition of forces and locations (figure is a few days old now, but the on the ground situation has changed little)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FU1vsyeWYAw9C1i?format=jpg&name=large

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
More Russian artillery fire centered on the Zaporizhzhia region.
Additional artillery fire concentrated around the Donetsk city region.

Crimea Front -
Over the course of the past week, Ukrainian military pushed Russian troops 5-7 kms further south from Zaporizhzhia.

The Kherson City Council reported that Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensives in Kyselivka, Soldatske, and Oleksandrivka, all within 40 km of Kherson City. A successful counteroffensive on Kyselivka would place Ukrainian forces just 15 km north of the northern boundary of Kherson City.

Western Ukraine -
Russian forces fired cruise missiles to destroy a large depot containing U.S. and European weapons in western Ukraine’s Ternopil region, Interfax reported on Sunday. The governor of the Ternopil region said a rocket attack on the city of Chortkiv fired from the Black Sea had partly destroyed a military facility, injuring 22 people. A local official said there were no weapons stored there.
OBSERVATION - A lot of silence on Russian strikes like this - probably concerted OPSEC to deny Russian with battle damage assessment.

Russian media report Druzhba oil products pipeline in Bryansk region was targeted with 3 explosive devices

Partisian Resistance *NEW* -
Nothing significant to report.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.

BLUF - Intense fighting in Severodonetsk will continue as Russia throws in its reserves to sway the battle.

Both sides reporting significant casualties. Russia appears to have refined its artillery support to take advantage of its 10:1 numerical advantage. However, it has been forced to cut back some support due to the close quarters nature of the current conflict in Sieverodonetsk. On the flanks of the Sieverodonetsk pocket, artillery is hammering Ukraine positions, allowing Russian forces to slowly claw away territory and slowly close the pocket. However, defense favors the Ukrainians in this area, so Russian losses in men and equipment are higher.

One factor that is not playing out in Ukraine’s favor as it did elsewhere is the employment of the TB2 drones. Russian has placed an enormous number of EW jammers in eastern Ukraine that prevent the systems from being used. Additionally, Russian anti-drone measures have improved, taking more systems down.

The Sieverodonetsk battle could be relatively quickly decided if the crossing of the Siverskyi Donets riverbank in the northern portion of the pocket is successful and sustained. This would threaten the Sieverodonetsk defenders with being cut off. This is one are to watch this week.

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Israel -

Biden administration will move forward with establishing a new Office of Palestinian Affairs in Jerusalem that will act independently of the US ambassador to Israel’s office there. This move goes against the expressed wishes of the Israeli government. Still, the Biden State Department is going even further, opening an official Palestinian consulate in Jerusalem wholly independent of the US embassy in Israel. This consulate will act as a de facto embassy to the Palestinian Authority in Jerusalem, a move that violates international law.

OBSERVATION - This kind of move proves to Israel that biden et al are anti-Israeli, a move that will in part likely drive Israel to act independently against Iran.
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Iran -
France is also advising its citizens against traveling to Iran. In latest update to its travel advisory map, france diplo red-flagged “entire” Iranian territory, urging the French to avoid travel to Iran as even tourists may be arbitrarily arrested.

OBSERVATION - Who in their right mind would want to be a tourist in Iran to begin with.

Iranian state media said on Sunday that Argentinian authorities have impounded a Boeing 747 plane whose original owner, Iran’s Mahan Air, was sold to a Venezuelan airline a year ago.

OBSERVATION - It is thought that this plane was one that was under sanctions but that Iran tried to obscure the ownership.

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“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. They may be more likely to go to Heaven yet at the same time likelier to make a Hell of earth. This very kindness stings with intolerable insult. To be ‘cured’ against one’s will and cured of states which we may not regard as disease is to be put on a level of those who have not yet reached the age of reason or those who never will; to be classed with infants, imbeciles, and domestic animals.” ― C.S. Lewis, God in the Dock: Essays on Theology
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Wuhan virus -

Studies suggest a link between an incurable and fatal prion disease known as Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (CJD) and COVID-19 vaccines.
Researchers believe the prion region from the original Wuhan COVID-19 variant’s spike protein was incorporated into mRNA vaccines and adenovirus vector vaccines — given to hundreds of millions of humans — and that it can cause a new type of rapidly progressing sporadic CJD.
According to Mayo Clinic, CJD is a degenerative brain disorder that leads to dementia and, ultimately, death.
Although the Omicron variant does not have a prion region on its spike protein, current COVID-19 vaccines still use the genetic material — including the prion region — of the parent Wuhan strain.
A French pre-print paper published in May on CJD and COVID-19 vaccination identified a new form of sporadic CJD that occurred within days of receiving a first or second dose of Pfizer or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines. Researchers analyzed 26 cases of CJD and found the first symptoms appeared on average 11.38 days after injection with a COVID-19 vaccine.

OBSERVATION - More and more studies coming out regarding adverse medical conditions, showing linkage to the wuhan jab but doing all they can to try to keep that linkage on the down low.

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Economy -

This week looks to be rough for the markets. The S&P 500 is set to open in bear market territory on Monday, a 20 percent decline from January, a sign of growing pessimism about the outlook for the economy.
Markets around the world tumbled, as higher-than-expected inflation and lower-than-expected economic growth upend the outlook for interest rates and corporate profits. Stocks in Asia and Europe fell, investors dumped government bonds, oil prices slipped and cryptocurrencies crashed.
U.S. stock futures pointed to a steep decline at the open of trading, as a wave of selling continued. The S&P 500 briefly dipped into bear market territory last month, before recovering to close just above it. The markets have been jittery since, with the S&P 500 last week recording its worst weekly loss since January.

Food processing corporation Smithfield Foods will shut down its Vernon, California, plant and scale back operations in California, Utah and Arizona, the company announced Friday.
Smithfield “will cease all harvest and processing operations in Vernon, California in early 2023 and, at the same time, align its hog production system by reducing its sow herd in its Western region,” the company said in a Friday news release.
“Smithfield is taking these steps due to the escalating cost of doing business in California,” the company said.

OBSERVATION - This will cause price hikes across the spectrum. I think the ‘cost’ involved are the PETA related ones like for chickens/eggs being raise in more expensive farms for products sold in kalifornia. Smithfield kalifornia pork production was likely an attempt to save costs in kalifornia, while preserving production/distribution out of the state. Kalifornia in particular will face much much higher prices as the pool of ‘acceptable’ farms/ranches decrease - limiting imports to the state.

Executives at companies like Kraft Heinz, Tyson Foods and even eateries like McDonalds have announced they will continue to raise prices, as they face these higher costs, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Kraft, for example, notified retailers on Monday that it would raise prices in August on items ranging from Miracle Whip and Classico pasta sauce to Maxwell House coffee products and some deli meats. And executives at McDonalds and Tyson Foods said they will soon have to increase their prices even more amid high costs of production as high fuel costs make it more expensive to produce and sell food.
As a result, the Labor Department reported on Friday that grocery prices were up 11.9 percent last month, while food away from home was up 7.4 percent.

OBSERVATION - Keep in mind, all these things point to continued high levels of inflation and in some measure, each amplifying the other as we approach this fall. Scan your supplies, cut costs now and use that to purchase foodstuffs NOW

Former Obama administration Treasury Secretary Larry Summers predicted the United States will enter an economic recession and suggested the possibility of yet higher gas prices than the country is currently seeing.
“I think the optimists were wrong a year ago in saying we have no inflation and I think they are wrong now if anyone is highly confident that we are going to avoid recession,” he said on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday, adding that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s predictions are “too optimistic.”
A combination of high inflation and low unemployment is “always followed within two years by recession,” Summer said, adding, “I think there is certainly a risk of recession in the next year and I think given where we have gotten to, it is more likely than not that we will have a recession in the next two years.”

OBSERVATION - I find this revelation very interesting, considering that many see biden being 0bama’s puppet. Summer’s view is also shared by many CEO/CFOs of major companies.

RELATED - Economist Mohamed El-Erian said inflation has yet to reach it’s peak. Appearing on CBS’s “Face The Nation” Sunday, the Allianz Chief Economic Advisor said he fears inflation may reach nine percent. In a recent tweet he also said “More US data disappointments today: Consumer sentiment, per the University of Michigan’s measure, fell by 8 points — more than expected and to its lowest level since the index started in 1952. Also worrisome, long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.3%, the highest since 2008”

Port congestion should ease next year as new container vessels are delivered and demand from shippers softens from pandemic highs, but not enough to restore global supply-chain flows to where they were before Covid, according to the head of DHL’s freight-forwarding unit. “It’s going to ease in 2023, but it’s not going to go back to 2019,” DHL Global Forwarding, Freight Chief Executive Officer Tim Scharwath said in an interview Wednesday. “I don’t think we’re going to go back to this overcapacity situation where rates were very low. “

OBSERVATION - Our supply chain will continue to be sensitive to disruptions for a fairly long time.
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Invasion of Illegals -

Border authorities in Texas seized 22 pounds of fentanyl worth $339,300 that a smuggler was attempting to drive into the U.S. on Wednesday, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced. The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) says that 2 milligrams of fentanyl can be enough to kill a person; 22 pounds is 9,979,032 milligrams. Applying the DEA’s own metrics, this means the latest seizure is enough to kill 4,989,516 people.

Mexico’s migration agency has issued nearly 7,000 temporary documents and transit visas over the last few days to members of a migrant caravan which by Saturday had broken up in southern Mexico. However, Mexico didn’t halt or turn around this caravan at all. What they did was grant the entire army of migrants temporary legal status so they could continue their journey northward without being disturbed by authorities. And from the sound of the current reporting, the vast majority of them plan to do exactly that.

Portland property taxes will soon be going up by 4.8 percent. Last year, families with a $400,000 home paid about $5,200 in property taxes. With this new increase, it’ll be around $5,550 for that same home. That’s an increase of about $350. The purpose of this increase is that illegal aliens and the homeless could live rent-free in subsidized housing.

Morale among Border Patrol agents is gone. “Under Biden, things are the worst they have ever been by far,” said one agent who is based in Arizona. “Agents are calling in all the time. You always hear, ‘It doesn’t matter,’ or, ‘What’s the point?’ in reference to doing our job. Agents are afraid of ending up on the news for doing their job or getting in trouble for doing their job. There is no morale.”

OBSERVATION - Demoralize those who are to defend our border makes it easier for the illegals to pour into the country.

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Biden / Harris watch -

Biden said on Sunday that he has “not yet” decided if he will visit Saudi Arabia when he’s in the region next month – but then moments later said that he was going.

OBSERVATION - We clearly have a president who doesn’t know if he’s coming or going. . . .

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CW2/Domestic violence -

A liberal activist group called “Shut Down DC” is reportedly going to attempt to make good on its name tomorrow. They aren’t looking to close down the entire city, however. They just want to blockade the Supreme Court. According to the group’s website, they will block off the three vehicular access points to the Supreme Court building, preventing the justices from entering and doing their work. And why would they do this? Because they believe that the court is about to hand down a ruling that would effectively overturn Roe v. Wade.

OBSERVATION - Threat of violent protests are increasing and will likely hit the fan once the official decision is released. Threat levels towards conservative USSC justices are also going sky high. One horrible thought is what happens if an assassin is successful - democrats will pull all plugs to replace with another extreme leftist(s)
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Strategic Activity / Deployments

Naval forces from the United Arab Emirates and United States began Exercise Iron Defender, June 13, in the Arabian Gulf. The 10-day exercise focuses on maritime security operations, mine countermeasures and harbor defense.

OBSERVATION - Mine countermeasure efforts and readiness training are critical as Iran will incorporate mines in any effort to close the Straits of Hormuz during any conflict with the US.

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China -

China’s defense minister warned on Sunday that his country will “fight to the very end” to stop Taiwan breaking away, and a senior People’s Liberation Army figure described the dispute over the island as the issue “that could most easily” trigger conflict between the United States and China.
“Let me make this clear: if anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, we will not hesitate to fight,” said Defense Minister Wei Fenghe. “We will fight at all costs. We will fight to the very end. This is the only choice for China.”

OBSERVATION - Pretty standard rhetoric towards Taiwan.

President Xi Jinping says people in Hong Kong and on the mainland should develop “a closer emotional bond,” comments that come before the Chinese leader’s potential visit to the city
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met with a small group of party secretaries on Sunday to discuss issues of loyalty and discipline among party officials. The meeting comes just days after a major party plenum.

OBSERVATION - Someone(s) are not being team players. Kim is shoring up his support.

ASEAN foreign ministers express “grave concerns” over North Korea’s recent surge in missile launches, call for DPRK to “exercise self-restraint.”

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Putin was spotted visibly shaking as he stood next to one of the recipients of the State Prize of the Russian Federation he awarded at the Kremlin on Sunday.
Speculation about Vladimir Putin’s health has been rife since before he was catapulted into the daily news bulletins because of his invasion of Ukraine in February. The Russian leader has sparked questions about his status as reports began to emerge about him suffering from cancer. Putin appeared quite shaky on his legs as he listened to Russian filmmaker Nikita Mikhalkov accept a prize rewarding his work in the arts.
Footage from the ceremony shows Putin standing just off the podium, his arms straight by his side.
The Russian President appears to be struggling to stand still, evidently swaying back and forth in an undulating motion.
He can also be seen shaking his legs in what appear to be side-to-side movements.

Logistics -
- The deputy prime minister of Russia Borisov says military enterprises producing high-precision weapons now switched to intensive schedule of production.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Warm and dryer over the 10 day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The battle for Severodonetsk continues, with Russia making some gains to take the city. Ukraine making slow headway in the south towards Kherson.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions.
Evacuations of civilians is ongoing from Zaizd, Petrovske, Tykhe and Sukhostavets villages of Pryluky district after intense Russian missile strikes and spreading fires.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Kharkiv was hit by missile and artillery attacks as levels higher than recent weeks.

NE of Kharkiv Russian army conducted assault actions at Ternova-Izbytske line, had partial success, seized the northern outskirts of the town.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation. Russians continue to shell and bomb throughout the region. Russia continued to launch attacks through the sector.

Russian forces made incremental gains to the southeast of Izyum and will likely continue attempts to advance on Slovyansk from the northwest. NASA’s FIRMS data indicates that there has been heavy fighting and shelling in the villages of Spivakivka and Zavody to the east of Izyum.
The lack of Russian progress around Izyum over the last few weeks indicates units may have moved from the area towards Severodonetsk.

More concentrated Russian artillery strikes southwest of Lyman as Russian forces try to press south.

Fierce fighting continues as Russian forces attempt to establish full control over Sieverodonetsk. Russian forces gained some more of the town but Ukrainians hold the industrial center.
Russian artillery destroyed Proletarsky Bridge connecting Severodonetsk with Lysychansk. The third (Leninsky/Donsodovsky Bridge) is old, was under fire and not suitable for the passage of heavy equipment, effectively reducing Ukranian options to withdrawal. Russian forces should, in principle, be seeking to seize the bridges rather than destroy them, since Russian troops have struggled to cross the Siverskyi Donetsk River. They could hope to trap Ukrainian defenders in Severodonetsk by cutting off their retreat, but it seems unlikely that the benefit of catching a relatively small number of defenders would be worth the cost of imposing a contested river crossing on Russian troops. The Russians likely expect instead to be able to break out of their positions either around Toshkivka or from Popasna to the north and then encircle Lysychansk or attack it from the west bank of the Siverskyi Donets, thereby obviating the need to seize the bridges or conduct an opposed crossing. Russian troops conducted another unsuccessful attack on Toshkivka, which is likely an effort to renew their drive north toward Lysychansk on the west bank.
However, Russian forces have struggled to push form the north and south, most likely due to prioritization of the battle for Severodonetsk stripping men and material away. If Russia succeeds in capturing Severodonetsk, it would take some time to relocate forces to Toshkivka and/or Popasna to conduct this kind of attack.

Russian forces are continuing to try to push northward and southward from the Popasna salient with reportedly no success.

The following link provides a map with relatively good current disposition of forces and locations. NOTE - this is a few days old, but the situation on the ground has been so generally static that it is still a pretty good depiction of the situation.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FU1vsyeWYAw9C1i?format=jpg&name=large

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
More artillery along the LOC.

Crimea Front -
More focus on Ukraine push towards Kherson.

Western Ukraine -
More missile strikes, very little info on locations.

Russian Territory -
The Ukrainian Commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhny says Ukrainian Army is now responding to cross-border shelling in Chernihiv and Sumy Region and hitting targets inside Russia.
Klimovsky District in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast was under artillery fire yesterday.

Partisian Resistance *NEW* -
Russian state news agency RIA Novosti cited the occupation authorities as saying that the explosive was placed near the police headquarters in Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.

BLUF - Intense fighting in Severodonetsk will continue as Russia throws in its reserves to sway the battle. This is beginning to play out much like Mauripol, how long are the Ukraine forces willing to hold out? Biggest game changer are the Russians taking out the bridges to Lysychansk. It may on a short term trap Ukraine forces, but it will hamper Russian strategic efforts to push westward from SeverodonetskSeverodonetsk. Have to see how this plays out.
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Israel -

Israeli and Turkish officials foiled an attempted attack on Israelis by an Iranian network operating in Turkey. Security officials from Israel updated their Turkish counterparts on the intent to carry out an attack against Israelis on Turkish lands and asked for their assistance to foil the attacks, a source was quoted as saying by several media outlets.

OBSERVATION - Israel’s hot/cold relationship with Turkey continues. Wonder what Turkey wanted in exchange for their help. However, Turkey views Iran as a competitor for the tole as the leader of the middle eastern caliphate.
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Iran -
The deaths of two IRGC aerospace officers announced on Sunday could be a part of recent deaths and killings in Iran, but it could also be the result of Israeli strikes in Syria. No details available yet.
However, Iran takes the deaths as sourced from Israel. After announcing the “death of an employee” of the “airspace forces” from the city of Semnan, east of Tehran “while performing his duties”, Iran says that its response to Tel Aviv’s assassinations of its scholars will take place in the State of Israel and not elsewhere.

There are reports of massive disruption in people’s access to the internet in various parts of Iran, from Tehran and Khuzestan to Hamadan.
OBSERVATION - This is commonly indicative of protests/rioting taking place and the regime’s efforts to interrupt planning and reporting by the protestors.
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Iraq -

Muqtada Alsadr orders all Sadrist MPs to resign from the parliament. There will be no vote in the House of Representatives [Majlis Nawwab] on the resignation of the Sadrist bloc’s MPs

OBSERVATION - This is a major blow to any attempt to install a coalition govt for Iraq. Sadr opposes the Iranian influenced block of MPs and govt officials as an infringement on Iraqi sovergnity (even though Sadr is of the same islamic sect).

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Lebanon -

Hundreds of people and several lawmakers protested Saturday in southern Lebanon against Israel moving a gas production vessel into an offshore field partly claimed by Beirut.

OBSERVATION - Lebanon has very little ability to stop this action. Israel has been playing nice in at least showing up to the negotiation table, however, Lebanon has tried to expand its claims into this area.
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I’ll be on the road for the next bunch of days. Probably won’t get the next edition out until next Tuesday.

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Wuhan virus -

Thomas Murray, an infection-control expert and associate professor of pediatrics at Yale, told The Washington Post on Monday that his team was seeing children with combinations of seven common viruses - adenovirus, rhinovirus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus, influenza and parainfluenza, as well as the coronavirus.
Some children were admitted with two viruses and a few with three, he said.
‘That’s not typical for any time of year and certainly not typical in May and June,’ he said. Experts believe is the result of their immune systems being weakened from two years of COVID lockdowns and mask-wearing.
Other strange patterns have emerged.
The rhinovirus, known as the common cold, is normally not severe enough to send people to hospital - but now it is. RSV normally tapers off in the warmer weather, as does the influenza, but they have not.
And the Yamagata strain of flu has not been seen since early 2020 - which researchers say could because it is extinct, or perhaps just dormant and waiting for the right moment to return.

OBSERVATIONS - Many medical researchers have blown the whistle over the probability that the jab damages the natural immune system. Question missing from the article is whether the kids have been jabbed. However, just getting together, playing in the dirt etc are God’s way of strengthening the immune system in children.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Monday that he had tested positive for COVID-19 - his second bout with the illness this year - but that he was feeling OK and isolating, per health guidelines. He would have been contagious when he met with biden and pelosi last week.

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Economy -

Fortune warned this morning that housing prices in as many as 40 markets could sharply drop over the next year as stagflation necessarily turns into recession

The White House loooves to talk about its “record jobs growth,” but it’s not growth — it’s a jobs recovery, and it’s still not complete. We are still about 900,000 short of the jobs we had in February 2020 before the pandemic forced the loss of over 22 million jobs. More than half of those were recovered before Joe Biden took office, and at the current pace, it will take another year to make up not just for the loss of the February 2020 jobs level but also for the jobs that would have been created and filled in the two-plus years since due to population growth.

Fed has now raised the specter of a .75 point increase rather than the .5 The fed hasn’t made that big of a jump in many decades

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, who regularly reminds the public she is a black, lesbian immigrant from Haiti, on Monday said that due to the “economic, historic gains that we have made under this president,” Americans are “well-positioned” to face record inflation, rising gas and food prices, and worsening overall economic instability.

The stock market has lost all the gains it made since President Joe Biden was sworn into office, according to recent data reported by Fortune on Monday.
The S&P 500 took a sharp downturn, closing on Monday 151 points below where it was in January of 2021. The other two major indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite fell by 876 points and 530 points respectively, both below where they were when Biden took office.

OBSERVATIONS - biden et al have gabbed the airliner controls and pointed the country straight towards the ground.

U.S. producer prices surged 10.8% in May from a year earlier, underscoring the ongoing threat to the economy from inflation that shows no sign of slowing. Thursday’s report from the Labor Department showed that the producer price index — which measures inflation before it reaches consumers — rose at slightly slower pace last month than in April, when it jumped 10.9% from a year earlier, and is down from an 11.5% yearly gain in March.

OBSERVATION - These numbers are forecasting the future inflation coming later this summer.
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Invasion of Illegals -

The Supreme Court ruled that illegal aliens detained for six months don’t have the right to a bond hearing for release in a decision released Monday. The decision addressed two separate cases involving three illegal aliens, two of which were Mexican nationals that entered the U.S. illegally after being previously deported. The third illegal alien was from El Salvador and also reentered the country illegally after being previously deported.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

It’s been more than a month since the Senate passed a new bill that would enhance safety and security for Supreme Court justices by unanimous consent. During that time, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has attempted to accomplish the same feat in the House several times and he did so again yesterday. But Speaker Nancy Pelosi once again shot down the request.

OBSERVATION - Democrats are quietly hoping that a conservative USSC justice gets murdered prior to the release of the decision. This may result in the 5:4 decision becoming 4:4 and progressives getting a chance to swing the court to the leftist side with a replacement.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments

OBSERVATION - Mine countermeasure efforts and readiness training are critical as Iran will incorporate mines in any effort to close the Straits of Hormuz during any conflict with the US.

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China -

Beijing claims that a Canadian plane monitoring North Korean sanctions “harassed” China. This disputes Ottawa stating earlier this month that Chinese air force planes violated air safety norms and flew dangerously close to its aircraft
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

“North Korea is ready to carry out a nuclear test any time at leader Kim Jong-un’s discretion, Seoul’s unification ministry said Tuesday.”

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been moved from prison to an unknown location

Economic Impact -
- The Biden administration has been quietly urging agricultural and shipping companies to buy and carry more Russian fertilizer, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the efforts.
- The number of people living below the poverty line in Russia has grown by 41% in the first three months of 2022, the government’s own stats agency says. That represents an increase from 12.4mn people at end of Dec 2021 to 20.9mn at the end of March.
- Gazprom says supply via Nord Stream I restricted to 100 Million Cubic Meters per day(of total capacity 167 MCM). Blames Siemens for delaying repairs of natural gas pumps
- Sberbank, the Russian Agricultural Bank, and the Moscow Credit Bank have been cut off from SWIFT

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Warm and dryer over the 10 day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The battle for Severodonetsk continues, with Russia making some gains to take the city.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Kharkiv was hit by missile and artillery attacks as levels higher than recent weeks.

Russian forces have stepped up counter attacks NE of Kharkiv assaulting Ukraine forces at Ternova-Izbytske where they, had partial success, seized the northern outskirts of the town.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation. Russians continue to shell and bomb throughout the region. Russia continued to launch attacks through the sector.

Russian forces concentrated artillery southwest of Izyum In probable preparation for attempting to push in that direction.

The lack of Russian progress around Izyum over the last few weeks indicates units may have moved from the area towards Severodonetsk.

Russian forces in Lyman are still trying to press south.

Fierce fighting continues as Russian forces attempt to establish full control over Sieverodonetsk. Yesterday Russian forces pushed Ukrainian defenders from the center of Severodonetsk and reportedly destroyed the remaining bridge from Severodonetsk to Lysychansk. Russia now controls 80-90% of the city.

Russian forces targeted areas southwest of Popasna salient

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FU1vsyeWYAw9C1i?format=jpg&name=large

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Artillery fire in Zaporizhzhia region yesterday, likely in preparation for a long awaited ground offensive

Crimea Front -
More focus on Ukraine push towards Kherson with incremental advances by Ukraine. Russia trying to reinforce positions.

Western Ukraine -
More missile strikes, this time in the Ternopil and L’viv regions of Ukraine.

Russian Territory -
An explosion at Russian military unit in Klintsy, Bryansk region reported overnight, cause not reported

Partisian Resistance *NEW* -
Nothing significant to report

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.

BLUF - Intense fighting in Severodonetsk will continue as Russia throws in its reserves to sway the battle. This is beginning to play out much like Mauripol, how long are the Ukraine forces willing to hold out? Biggest game changer are the Russians taking out the bridges to Lysychansk. It may on a short term trap Ukraine forces, but it will hamper Russian strategic efforts to push westward from Severodonetsk. Have to see how this plays out.
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Israel -

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi on Sunday warned that overwhelming force would be used in Lebanon during the next potential war with Hezbollah. I say to the residents of Lebanon: I advise you to leave, not only at the beginning of the war, but from the beginning of tension and before the first shot is fired.

Watching yet unconfirmed reports that he president of the European Union is on her way to Israel to finalize a historic deal in which Israel will supply trillions of cubic feet of natural gas to Europe either by liquidating its locally or using Egyptian facilities thus exporting it via Egypt.
The deal with Europe is part of the European way to find substitutes to the Russian gas supply. In other words: Israeli gas will replace the Russian one.

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Lebanon -

Lebanon reportedly ready to back down on some claims in maritime dispute with Israel. Lebanon is reportedly prepared to offer a compromise in its maritime border dispute with Israel under which it will move the position it currently claims is the boundary between the two countries northward, to a point where it won’t include an Israeli natural gas field.

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“Social Engineering – The art of replacing what works with what sounds good.” – Thomas Sowell

This is a very thin posting as life continues and I try to summarize what happened while I was gone. And I’ll be gone again Wednesday thru Monday.
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Wuhan virus -

In a report published on Friday, the World Health Organization claimed that anxiety and depression rose globally by a staggering 25 per cent in the first year of Chinese coronavirus lockdowns, alone. As a result, the report estimated that over one billion people worldwide are now suffering from mental health issues.
“Globally there was also a greater change in prevalence among younger age groups than older ones, potentially reflecting the deep impact of school closures and social restrictions on youth mental health,” the W.H.O. report said.

OBSERVATION - Mental health conditions have been repeatedly associated with the wuhan lockdowns. Apparently now they cannot be swept under the rug and the WHO is forced to put a spin on it.

A day before the FDA approved booster shots against COVID for children between the ages of 5 and 12, NIAID Director Dr. Anthony Fauci admitted to a Senate committee that there exist no data indicating that rates of hospitalization or death from COVID are lower in a child who has received a third vaccine dose.

OBSERVATION - So why the big push? Control.
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Economy -

Economy continues in chaos with no end in the foreseeable future.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia found this morning that regional business activity for manufacturing has contracted for the first time since May of 2020. While employment experienced minor growth, new orders fell from May’s 22.6 to -12.4, a decrease of 35 points on the index. For the first time since December of 2008, the six-month business outlook fell to a negative, at -6.8.

More from the Fed - Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said it will take two years for inflation to fall to the central bank’s 2% target, adding that it will be “moving down” gradually from the current level. Mester said she was not predicting a recession despite slowing growth.

REMEMBER - this was only ‘transient’.

The largest chicken producer in the western U.S. has asked federal regulators to issue an emergency service order that would direct Union Pacific to prioritize corn shipments that thousands of dairy cattle and millions of chickens and turkeys depend upon.
”The point has been reached when millions of chickens will be killed and other livestock will suffer because of UP’s service failures,” Foster Farms wrote in its request to the Surface Transportation Board this week. UPRR has tried to blame the failure on a shortage of train crews at key points on its system.

OBSERVATION - This is the third reported incident (that Ive come across) where the UPRR has stopped/delayed shipments of critical items. The first was fertilizer, the second being DEF and biodiesel products from Pilot facilities.

The Biden administration asked a federal court last week to uphold its ban on new federal oil and gas leasing, according to Department of Justice (DOJ) court filings. The administration argued the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana should toss an April 29 motion from more than a dozen states asking the presiding judge to permanently nix the leasing ban, according to the Monday filings. The Louisiana court placed an injunction on the ban in June 2021, forcing the federal government to hold oil and gas lease sales until a final ruling was issued in the case. The average price of gasoline hit a record $5.02 per gallon Tuesday while the average price of diesel fuel hit a record $5.78 a gallon Wednesday, AAA data showed.

OBSERVATION - biden regime PR push is that he is trying to get oil companies to produce more oil - but as this shows, at the same time he is restricting their ability.

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Invasion of Illegals -

The Biden administration is planning to bus migrants from overwhelmed border towns to other areas around the country, some only hours away from the border.
According to the New York Post, busing migrants from border towns is one way Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas plans to ease the influx of migrants on United States border towns.
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Biden / Harris watch -

In response to numerous economists warning about a recession, biden said “They shouldn’t believe a warning,” He then went on to blame others for the economic chaos his administration has caused.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Civil unrest, including protests and potentially political violence, is likely to increase following the Supreme Court decision on Roe v. Wade. Many, including democrat lawyer Alan Dershowitz as foreseeing a summer full of violence. Antifa related Jane’s Revenge, is planning more acts of domestic terrorism when the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on Roe v. Wade is revealed, dubbed a “Night of Rage: An Autonomous Call to Action Against Patriarchal Supremacy.”has called for open violence following the anticipated ruling to overturn Roe V Wade.

OBSERVATION - The proabort movement is still having traction problems given that the abortion issue is way down the list of voters concerns. Antifa elements are more than willing to assist the cause, but even among its elements support isn’t that strong. I think they are looking for a more government-changing cause better fitting their mentality and abortion isn’t it.

Warping back to the days of 0bama with govt alphabet agencies purchasing substantial quantities of arms and ammunition. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) spent some $700,000 on firearm ammunition between March 1 and June 1, according to Rep. Matt Gaetz . According to a report from OpenTheBooks published in 2020, the IRS had stockpiled 4,600 guns and five million rounds of ammunition as of Jan. 1, 2019.
IN RELATED - word coming out that the biden regime is taking steps to reduce the availability of .223/5.56 ammunition available to the average shooter. The U.S. Military is actively considering shutting down the sale is M855/SS109 ammo from Lake City to the commercial market. This is in part due to the military switchiong from 5.56mm ammo to 6.8mm. The Lake City plant would sell 5.56 above the military needs to the civilian market - meeting about 30% of the needs. However, the plant has been informed that it may no longer sell M855 and SS109 ammunition produced in excess of the military’s needs on the civilian market.

Lake City is a sprawling ammunition plant in Independence, Missouri, originally established by Remington in 1941 to manufacture and test Ammunition for the U.S. Army. It is currently owned by the government and operated by private contractors and produces well over a billion rounds of ammunition per year.

OBSERVATION - Controlling ammunition availability is a backdoor way of gun control. With alphabet agencies appearing to jump into the market and buy large quantities, while at the same time reducing production can in some ways control gun owners.

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China -

China officially launched its third and most sophisticated aircraft carrier today at the China State Shipbuilding Corporation shipyard in Shanghai. The carrier, which has been under construction since 2018, is China’s first fully domestically developed and built aircraft carrier and uses an electromagnetic catapult and arresting devices

OBSERVATION - As noted before, this carrier is far more capable than its predecessors. It cannot project power globally, like US carriers, but is a definite threat regionally.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

Well, drums still beating to see when NK pops another nuke test. Been waiting for over a month now.

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its the fourth month of the war .

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
See Russian dangerous actions isn SYRIA section below.

The Lithuanian chargé d’affaires has been summoned to Russia’s Foreign Ministry, where she was told that “if cargo transit to the Kaliningrad region is not restored in full in the near future, Russia reserves the right to act to protect its national interests”

Russia temporarily stops oil exports through the Novorossiysk port. It’s officially due to the discovery of WW2 era bombs, but curiously it happens days after Kazakhstan’s president said, sitting next to Putin, that his country wdn’t recognize the DNR/LNR. Kazakhstan in return has blocked bout 1700 rail cars full of coal from departing for Russia.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Reports that the ‘special action’ in Ukraine isn’t enough to get red blooded Russians to sign up for the war.

Economic Impact -
- Germany’s economy minister said Sunday that the country will limit the use of natural gas for electricity production amid concerns about possible shortages caused by a cut in supplies from Russia. Robert Habeck said Germany will try to compensate for the move by increasing the burning of coal, a more polluting fossil fuel.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain and thunderstorms throughout most of the 10 day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
A little past the 24 hour time frame but still reportable - Ukrainian military officials have said they struck the Russian Navy’s Vasiliy Bekh tugboat in the Black Sea using two Harpoon missiles supplied by the US. The boat was ferrying supplies and men to Snake Island. This is the first documented used of land based Harpoon systems in the Black Sea.

The battle for Severodonetsk continues, with Russia making some gains to take the city.

Ukrainian military launched missile strikes on the drilling rigs “Petro Godovanets” and “Ukraine”, which in 2014 were stolen by the Russian troops, rigs conducted drilling in exclusive maritime economical zone of Ukraine

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Heavy artillery attacks by Russia in the Kharkiv area. Russia is attempting counter attacks to key Ukraine forces from getting within artillery range of Russian supply bases.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation. Russians continue to shell and bomb throughout the region. Russia continued to launch attacks through the sector.

The Russian pocket between Izyum and Lyman has been closed .

Fierce fighting continues as Russian forces attempt to establish full control over Sieverodonetsk. Intelligence analysts are noting concentrated Russian artillery power paired with likely understrength infantry units have been inadequate insufficient to enable significant Russian advances within Severodonetsk. Others note Ukraine is playing a kinda of a rope-a-dope. Ukraine will pull back, hit the advancing Russian ground troops with withering artillery and move back into their former positions - lather, rinse, repeat. Overall, Russia continues to slowly claw away portions of the city.

Ukraine’s armed forces said Sunday they had pushed back Russian attacks from villages in the area of Toshkivka near Severodonetsk Videos show a Russian column being pummeled by Ukraine artillery. NOTE - Ukraine artillery has a lot of these road network choke points dialed in and Russia just keeps on driving into them. Becomes like shooting ducks in a barrel.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Massive artillery fire all along the front, likely in preparation for a long awaited ground offensive, but then I’ve been making that note for a while now.

Crimea Front -
Russian artillery all along the western margin of the front in an attempt to stall Ukrainian counteroffensive . Russians attempting to reinforce the region

Western Ukraine -
More missile strikes.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

Partisian Resistance -
Partisans have continued to target Russia picked civic leaders for death as well as hitting other soft targets.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.

BLUF - Intense fighting in Severodonetsk will continue as Russia throws in its reserves to sway the battle. This is essentially the same outlook as being noted for week now. Russia has focused the bulk of its forces to the fight for Severodonetsk and has little to show for it except incredibly heavy losses. Ukraine isn’t getting off scott free either, but is still in a better position to make up those losses than Russia.
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Moldova/Transnistria -

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, “[T]here are clear attempts to make a second Ukraine out of Moldova.” He said the European Union is using a “consumer-oriented approach” to entice Moldova into membership and breakaway from the Commonwealth of Independent States. Previous Russian battleplans reference a potential future operation in Moldova, after securing Ukraine’s Black Sea Coast.
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Belarus -

Belarus president claims they will ‘protect’ western Ukraine from Polish control.

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Europe / NATO General -

Russia’s war in Ukraine could go on for years and the effort requires Western support, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in an interview published Sunday by the German publication Bild.
“We must prepare for the fact that it could take years,” he said.

Lithuanian banned the transit of Russian goods to Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad, which is wedged between Poland on the west and Lithuania on the east, is home to almost a half-million Russians and the headquarters for the Russian Navy’s Baltic Sea force. Lithuanian enforcement of EU sanctions on goods to Russian Kaliningrad expanded the potential for direct NATO - Russian conflict.

Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, or RN) made historic gains in Sunday’s French parliamentary election second round, on track to win 90 seats according to projections by Ipsos – a score way beyond the record gains polls predicted. Emmanuel Macron’s centrist bloc, meanwhile, underperformed polling expectations and fell well short of a majority – leaving a deal with conservative Les Républicains (LR) as his best hope for governing unencumbered.

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Israel -

The Israeli newspaper “Jerusalem Post” reports that Russian threats against the armed groups supported by the United States in Syria will affect the war that Israel is waging against Iran in Syria.

OBSERVATION - As I’ve noted before, Israel and Russia have coordinated on attacks against Iran/Hezbollah in Syria to avoid Russian casualties. Russia has now been taking a more aggressive stance against Israeli strikes - threatening to even interdict them. Russia’s new aggressiveness being reflected by their strikes on US supported groups is forcing Israel to evaluate their tactics and targets for possible Russian actions.

Defense Minister Gantz in the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on the warnings of terrorist attacks in Turkey: We have prepared powerful responses in case they need to be activated in all sorts of places. Injury to Israeli citizens will lead us to activate them

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Iran -

Iran activated terror cells in Turkey to target Israeli citizens there. So far, all attacks have been thwarted by Turkish security forces.

Iran is currently building an extensive underground facility and network of tunnels near its Natanz nuclear plant, The New York Times reported on Thursday.
Natanz is Iran’s chief enrichment complex and houses both its commercial fuel enrichment plant and a uranium enrichment facility. The complex consists of three underground buildings and six topside buildings. The more sensitive facilities in the complex are all underground to protect them from an aerial assault.
Citing Israeli and US intelligence sources, the report noted that the construction’s outline resembles the one employed in the Fordo fuel enrichment plant. The plant, located 20 miles northeast of the Iranian city of Qom at a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps base, was also built under a mountain to protect it from airstrikes.

OBSERVATION - Such complexes would likely require bombs bigger than Israeli F35/F15 can carry. However, they have to have entrances and exits for people and supplies in addition to ventilation. Those ARE vulnerable to Israeli bombs.
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Iraq -

Sadr’s coalition withdrawal from the parliament continues to roil attempts to form a government.
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Syria -

Russian forces have conducted a series of operations against the U.S.-led coalition in Syria this month, including one this week at a strategically located base in the southern part of the country, U.S. military officials said.
The Russian actions have alarmed U.S. military officials, who are concerned that a miscalculation might escalate into an unintended conflict between the U.S. and Russian forces in Syria. Tensions between the two countries are already high following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February and American efforts to arm the Ukraine military to defeat Russian forces there.
On Wednesday, Russia carried out airstrikes at the al-Tanf garrison, near Syria’s border with Jordan in southeast Syria, where U.S. troops have a train-and-advise mission with local fighters to prevent a resurgence of Islamic State.

OBSERVATION - Both Russia and the US have been careful to avoid this as it could cause the conflict to escalate. The last real serious event saw Russians attacking US forces and gettin their clocks cleaned a few years back. This is a deliberate violent pushback on the Ukraine war.

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Central / South America General-

Left-wing ex-guerrilla Gustavo Petro has achieved a narrow victory in Colombia’s presidential election. Parts of his agenda are to redistribute pensions, make public universities free and tackle the country’s inequality and poverty. He has also said he will put a stop to new oil and gas projects.

OBSERVATION - Central and South America have been trending to the left in recent years.
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HAPPY SOLSTICE: The northern summer solstice arrived this morning, June 21st at 5:14 a.m. EDT. This is when the sun is farthest north for the year and begins its six-month return southward.

I’ll be gone again this Wednesday thru Monday of next week.
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Wuhan virus -

Ireland’s pro-lockdown health minister has said that he may reintroduce forced mask-wearing lockdown measures ostensibly to curb the spread of COVID-19.

A study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine on June 15, examined the Omicron wave in Qatar that occurred from around December 2021 to February 2022, comparing vaccination rates and immunity among more than 100,000 Omicron infected and non-infected individuals.
The authors of the study found that those who had a prior infection but no vaccination had a 46.1 and 50 percent immunity against the two subvariants of the Omicron variant, even at an interval of more than 300 days since the previous infection.
However, individuals who received two doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine but had no previous infection, were found with negative immunity against both BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron subvariants, indicating an increased risk of contracting COVID-19 than an average person.

New fear mongering about new Omicron variants - studies in S Africa where the original variant appeared and the newest ones are bouncing around show virtually no increased lethality thought the covidians are tryihng to get you to think otherwise.

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Invasion of Illegals -

More and more illegals being bussed to smaller cities that are unable to cope with the influx.
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Biden / Harris watch -

Joe Biden snapped at a reporter Monday after she asked about fears of an economic recession. “The majority aren’t saying that. Don’t make things up! OK! Now you sound like a Republican politician — I’m joking! That was a joke, that was a joke,” Biden said.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

Supreme Court is expected to issue at least one ruling Tuesday, including the abortion case that would overrule the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision if the leaker majority opinion holds.
If not Tuesday, the Mississippi decision could be announced Thursday, which is the second day designated by the court to release opinions. The ruling could be announced on another day if the court designates additional “opinion issuance” days before its summer recess.

While there is growing speculation that federal agents and Capitol Police were involved in instigating acts of violence during the Jan. 6, 2021 protests and recording responses for the purposes of entrapment, evidence now proves that “plainclothes” members of a special Electronic Surveillance Unit (ESU) were embedded among the protesters for the purposes of conducting video surveillance. Evidence also points to a day of security deficiencies and police provocation for the purpose of entrapment.

Juneteenth weekend “celebrations” resulted in numerous shootings across the nation.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments

Rim of the Pacific 2022 (RIMPAC2022) exercise in Hawaii are set to kick off soon. The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group, the only CSGs currently deployed in the eastern Pacific, together with amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA-7), and will take part in the exercises as well.

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China -

China continues to move more troops to the Indian border to confront Indian forces and slowly advance into Indian territory. China has not been idle in areas where there is little military action. Along the Indian border Chinese troops and engineers continue building roads, structures and fortifications. Lately the border conflicts with China have remained quiet, mainly because China has more urgent problems to deal with. Primarily their economy.

People are reportedly lining up for hours in China to obtain money from their bank accounts in China. The large cities of Henan, Shanghai, and Dandong are three cities where the lines are long.

OBSERVATION - Their economy is not strong. The real estate market is crashing. Buildings are sitting empty and there is no money to pay for them. Evergrande was one casualty of this disaster.

Beijing is further tightening its fist around Taiwan – insisting that international law does not apply to the Taiwan Strait. This is despite China being a signatory to criteria established under the International Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which says it is. Washington is not a signatory to the convention. But it asserts its validity as part of an international “rules-based order”.

OBSERVATION - Though I don’t expect China to physically enforce this in the near future, it is setting the pretext for future military actions to prohibit all non-chinese vessels from passing through the strait.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

OSINT from recent commercial satellites has been reviewed by analysts monitoring the developments at NK’s nuclear test site and note the following -

* The refurbishment work and preparations at Tunnel No. 3, which began approximately four months ago, are apparently now complete and ready for an oft-speculated seventh nuclear test.
* New construction activity is noted at Tunnel No. 4, strongly suggesting an effort to reenable it for potential future testing.
* Supporting an effort to further reenable the facility, construction of new buildings or updates to existing buildings is observed in the main administration.
* No work being done in the Tunnel 1 or 2 areas.

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Japan -

Russian warships are now steaming in the East China and the Philippine seas near Japan, the Russian Navy and the Japan Defense Ministry announced on Monday.
Meanwhile, the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF) Indo-Pacific Deployment 2022 (IPD22) drilled with the U.S. Navy while ships from five Indo-Pacific nations sailed together out of Guam en route to the Rim of the Pacific 2022 (RIMPAC2022) exercise in Hawaii.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its the fourth month of the war .

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
Russia vows ‘serious’ consequences over Lithuania rail transit ban. In response, Russia’s Baltic Fleet has reportedly launched live-fire exercises in the Kaliningrad Region with an estimated 1,000 servicemen and over 100 units of military hardware taking part. Russia’s Baltic Fleet has launched the alleged exercises following escalating tensions with Lithuania due to a blockade of Russian transit cargo.
“About 1,000 servicemen and over 100 units of combat and special equipment of artillery and missile units will take part in the maneuvers in the Kaliningrad region,” stated the report according to Crimea news.
The firing exercises will reportedly be carried out by artillerymen using “Grad and Uragan multiple rocket launchers,Hyacinth large-calibre guns, Msta-S, Acacia dn Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems.

RUMINT -
Some are saying Russian is pushing to capture Sieverodonetsk by June 26th.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Rain and thunderstorms throughout most of the 10 day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russian forces continue to attempt to establish full control over Sieverodonetsk. Russian artillery/air strikes lessened from yesterday. Some reporters are claiming that Russia has kicked off a new offensive in the east.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Heavy artillery attacks by Russia in the Kharkiv area. Over the past few days there have been Russian gains that have slightly extended their border buffer around Kharkiv.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation. Russians continue to shell and bomb throughout the region. Russia continues to launch attacks through the sector.

Fierce fighting continues as Russian forces attempt to establish full control over Sieverodonetsk. Ukraine is assesses at possessing the industrial area while the rest of the city now is under Russian control.

Russian forces are intensifying operations to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway near Toshkivka in order to support escalating operations in Severodonetsk-Lysychansk.” There are some reports that Russian forces have successfully captured Toshkivka, though the action on the ground is clouded by the fog of war.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
More artillery fire all along the front, likely in preparation for a long awaited ground offensive

Crimea Front -
Reports that Ukrainian troops have broken through the first defense line of Russians in Kherson province,” governor’s adviser says. Russians now are said to be fortifying the second and the third lines under the cover of increasing areillery fire..

Ukrainian coastal defense capability has largely neutralized Russia’s ability to establish sea control and project maritime force in the north-western Black Sea.

Ukrainian military conducted missile strikes at Snake Island.

Western Ukraine -
More missile strikes.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

Partisian Resistance *NEW* -
Nothing to report

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.

BLUF - Intense fighting in Severodonetsk will continue as Russia throws in its reserves to sway the battle. Russia has been attempting to capture this city for nearly a month now. Russia has focused the bulk of its forces to the fight for Severodonetsk and has little to show for it except incredibly heavy losses. Ukraine isn’t getting off scott free either, but is still in a better position to make up those losses than Russia.

Russian is potentially seeing an other Azoz industrial site meat grinder as they did in Melitopol.

Ukraine is conduction what I see as economy of force operations that are opportunistic in launching limited counter offensives to force Russia to hold back forces from the east. This is working in the Kherson region, as well as Kharkiv, though Russia has been aggressively fighting their own counter attacks

Ukraine anti-ship missiles are forcing Russia to alter their operations in the western Black Sea and Snake Island. This region is critical to the eventual sea borne commerce to/from Ukraine. Many are seeing Russian seizure and blockades of wheat as blackmail towards Africa and the rest of the world.
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Moldova/Transnistria -

Moldova’s President Maia Sandu baned Russian news programs, political TV shows and war films
Observers note that this will undoubtedly sharpen the rift between Sandu and pro-Russian figures like Igor Dodon.

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Poland -

Instructiors from the 82nd Airborne Division arrived in Poland to train Ukrainian military.
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Europe / NATO General -
.
Moscow accuses EU of ‘escalation’ over Lithuania rail transit ban on goods heading for Kaliningrad.
Lithuania notified the Kaliningrad Railway of suspending the transit of EU-sanctioned goods through its territory. Up to half of ready-to-import goods, including building materials and metals, are subject to the ban, Kaliningrad region Governor Anton Alikhanov said. The announcement of the ban caused panic buying by the residents of Kaliningrad.

A German government source confirms that Sweden and Finland will reach a deal to join NATO. It is unclear whether this deal will be struck by the Madrid Summit

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Israel -

With Israel’s weakened coalition government deciding to dissolve parliament and call new elections, speculation is rising about the return of a nationalist religious government led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or another prolonged period of political gridlock. This election will be the country’s fifth in three years.

Explosions were heard Monday night over the city of Damascus, where Israel reportedly fired missiles from the Golan Heights toward Hezbollah/Iran targets south of the Syrian capital.

The Palestinian Arab Samanews website reported on Monday that the Palestinian “resistance organizations” are holding consultations to examine scenarios for a military confrontation with Israel.
According to the report, senior members of the organizations held talks on this issue with senior commanders of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and of Hezbollah.
The operations room of the Palestinian Arab organizations in Gaza has recently begun to share intelligence with the operations rooms of the Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah.

OBSERVATIONS - Israel is entering a new, perilous period as new elections spin up. Iran / Hezbollah may likely take advantage of this period to push their agenda - even to the point of launching an attack on what they think is a weakened Israel (remember, strength and the appearance thereof are key to the culture). Turmoil in Israel and threats from Iran are significantly higher now than when they were during the last series of elections and with a hostile biden regime to boot.
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Iran -

Iran is stepping up uranium enrichment at its underground Fordo nuclear site, according to a confidential International Atomic Energy Agency report seen by the Reuters news agency on Monday.

Iran claims it has arrested “Mossad’ spy network that planned to kill nuclear scientists.

Iranian naval vessels playing chicken with US vessels, 3 Iranian IRGC vessels approached two American ships in the Persian Gulf at what the U.S. military called “dangerously high speed.”
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Turkey -

Turkey is “more careful” about selling weapons to Ukraine, says Turkish Defense Industry President İsmail Demir, per WSJ interview “We have to be able to talk to both sides,” says Demir about Russia, Ukraine conflict
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Hopefully back on for a while. I’m hitting some highpoint that I’ve noticed occurring over the weekend since getting back. The world went further into the toilet, sadly to note.
Will be ramping up analysis as I get back into stride.
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Economy -

Deutsche Bank has said the US economy is heading for an earlier recession than the investment bank previously expected, that will drive up unemployment by almost two percentage points. The Fed’s “aggressive hiking path” means the economy is going to slow sooner than previously thought, Deutsche’s economists said in a note to clients published Friday and seen by Insider on Tuesday.
The US economy is likely to shrink at an annualized rate of 3.1% in the third quarter of 2023, and then by 0.4% in the fourth quarter, Deutsche said. Previously, it had penciled in the first contraction for the fourth quarter. Overall, the German bank expects the US economy to slow to a crawl, growing just 0.7% in 2023, compared with 2022.

OBSERVATION - Many corporations are speaking a counter narrative to the Fed/biden administration declaration of a “soft” landing for the economy. Remember, just a year ago these same administration mouth pieces were saying inflation was “transitionary”. they lied then, they are lying now. So many components of todays economy are hanging on by a thread - food, fuel, services, home sales, etc that it is virtually impossible to ‘soft’ land thing - and the Fed has has ZERO success in the past.

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Biden / Harris watch -

Biden babbling “there WILL BE another pandemic” - Slip of the tongue?

A few weeks ago, a news outlet found that Biden is using cheat sheets during meetings. The instructions on these cards are extremely basic. Some of the guidelines include “take YOUR seat,” “give brief comments 2 minutes,” and “you thank participants.”

Increasing numbers of democrats are being polled as saying biden (if he should make it to the end of his term) should not run again.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

The Supreme Court’s decision in Bruen on Thursday eliminated “good-cause requirement” in the gun permit application process. In Kalifornia, State Attorney General Rob Bonta sent out a letter on Friday to law enforcement and government attorneys noting the change and saying that the state’s current “may issue” regime should be able to be converted to a “shall issue” regime with few modifications.

However, the tyrants of the left coast are looking at a work around under the “of good moral character” standards. Under this work around they are focusing on denial based on “ideological viewpoints”. Specifically the requirements of the “absence of hatred and racism”. If you spoke out against the violence on display during the BLM riots, you’ve already been defined as a “racist.” Based on that alone, the California AG could determine that you are of insufficiently good moral character to be approved for a permit. If you applauded the overturning of Roe v Wade you are no doubt already on a list of “haters” of some sort so you can be similarly denied.

OBSERVATION - This back door approach is blatantly unconstitutional but will buy the left a few more years as lawsuits work their way through the court system. It took Bruen four years to make it to the USSC. Those pursuing such a CCW will have their lives scrutinized in a more intrusive manner than before.

With the Roe v Wade decision out, there were violent protests in the usual cities - LA, Portland, Seattle, DC with scattered targeted vandalism of Pro-life facilities in some towns. Jane’s Revenge has taken credit for the crimes and threatened to take “increasingly drastic measures” in the future.
As with the illegal release of the decision documents, violence doesn’t appear to be gaining traction, this in spite of congressional democrats and celebrities calling for lawlessness.
The federal govt has stepped into it by openly declaring it will not abide by the decision. DOJ promising to file lawsuits against states passing pro life legislation. DOD stepped dangerously into politics stating as policy it will not obey state laws.

OBSERVATION - Loss of the federalized power of abortions to state control has the left in convulsions. Expect DOJ (and allies like the ACLU) to launch many lawsuits in the coming days and months. Some of the more extreme measures the administration may attempt could be the rumored declaration by biden of a national public health emergency so doctors can perform abortions in states where they are illegal if Roe v. Wade is overturned. Biden may also allow doctors to perform abortions on military bases in those states (however, they will hit the Hyde amendment wall which forbids such acts).

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China -

China’s growing aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s control air space continue to increase in numbers. That combined with its declaration that the Taiwan strait is off limits to foreign ships and aircraft has turned the potential for an incident up several notches. This increased aggressiveness may be precursors to Chinese military action before the end of the year. Most likely under this progression would be the capture of outlying islands. Much depends on the political situation (and potential violence) in the US as well as the Russian attack on Ukraine.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korea marked its anniversary of the Korean War on Saturday, denouncing Western “aggression” and vowing revenge. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s regime marks the Korean War anniversary based on its start date, June 25, 1950. The regime has consistently escalated tensions on the Korean Peninsula via missile tests and other aggressive measures.

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its the fourth month of the war .

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia’s capture of Sievierodonetsk puts the battle in eastern Ukraine into a new phase and analysts watching to see if it can maintain the initiative and press on, or pause for a breather.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

Russian Personnel Issues -
— Colonel-General Genady Zhidko, current director of Russia’s Military-Political Directorate, is likely in overall command of Russian forces in Ukraine. Zhidko replaced Commander of the Southern Military District Alexander Dvornikov as overall commander. Rumors Dvornikov was injured in battle in the recent past.

- Andrei Vasilyev, 49, commander of an elite VDV paratrooper regiment, died in a strike in an unknown location on Friday night, local media said, the 56th top officer to be killed during the war. Vasilyev, who had previously been awarded the Russian Order of Courage, led the 137th Guards Airborne Regiment of the 106th Guards Airborne Division.

- Most recent estimates have Russian deaths from the war at approximately 35,000.

Economic Impact -
- Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since the Bolshevik Revolution.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot and dry over the 10 day forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP - (well actually a little more than 24 hours for this report)
Longer than 24 hours, but while out Russia officially captured Sieverodonetsk and was in the process of flanking Luhansk from the south. The Ukrainian defeat in this area is essentially the last pieces of Luhansk Oblast controlled by Ukraine.

Russia over the same period has also become more aggressive in their attacks around Kharkiv and Kherson, reversing some Ukrainan gains. Russia has also been launching more missile attacks across the country, with this weekend striking Kyiv with at least 4 missiles (many others were intercepted by SAMs)

Kyiv front -
Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike against the Schevchenkivskyi district of Kyiv on June 26, likely to coincide with the ongoing summit of G7 leaders. This is the first such major strike on Kyiv since late April and is likely a direct response to Western leaders discussing aid to Ukraine at the ongoing G7 summit, much like the previous strikes on April 29 during UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ visit to Kyiv

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions. Russian army launched over 150 projectiles into Sumy region today. 1 person killed, another wounded

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian tanks, artillery and MLRS shelled Kharkiv, Shevelivka, Pischane, Chuhuiv, Shetakove, Zamulivka and Ruska Lozova. Includes 7 Iskander-type missiles.

Russian forces continue to launch counter attacks to push Ukraine forces back from the border.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation. Russians continue to shell and bomb throughout the region. Russia continues to launch attacks through the sector.

With the fall of Sieverodonetsk, fighting has no shifted to attacks headed northwest out of Toshkivka and Popansa breakouts. The russian success along these axis have been a main contributor to the fall of Sieverodonetsk and the slow closing of the Sieverodonetsk pocket.

Russian forces continue to press their attacks southward out of the Izyum region. However, little gains have been accomplished.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
More artillery fire all along the front, likely in preparation for a long awaited ground offensive

Crimea Front -
Russian counterattacks have pushed Ukranian forces back from Kherson area.

Ukraine artillery making life for Russians on Snake Island miserable, striking more Pantsyr S-1 SAMs and the result of killing more Russians.

Western Ukraine -
More missile strikes.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

Partisian Resistance -
According to Russian state media, a car belonging to a collaboration government official in Kherson Oblast was bombed. On Friday, another official was killed in a separate car bombing.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.

BLUF - Ukraine is being forced out of the Sieverodonetsk pocket by the combination of the application of intense artillery attacks and being outmaneuvered to the southeast via the Toshkivka and Popansa breakouts. This attack threatens the flank of Ukrainian defensive positions utilizing the high ground of Lysychansk (located southwest of Sieverodonetsk) and Siversky Donets river. Russia appears to have come up with a tactic of massive artillery to allow Russian troops to advance into Ukraine defensive positions.

Taking Luhansk Oblast could allow President Putin to present his people with a genuine achievement, something he badly needs after the failures of the start of this invasion. Persistent rumors that the Russian army is exhausted from the current fight and needs some kind of period of rest to re-man and rearm to push the offensive further (at the loss of their current momentum and advantages).

One must remember, it has taken Russia some two months (since the start of their Phase Two operations) to capture this small portion of Ukraine. Huge expenditure of men and material. To capture the rest of the Donbas region - consisting of the much, larger unconquered Donetsk Oblast region will require even more effort. While it appears that Russia has learned from its initial mistakes in the war, it risks a further meat grinder war of attrition if it pushes westward.
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Belarus -

Rumors of Belarus organizing its military for action against Ukraine.
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Europe / NATO General -
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NATO will boost its forces on high readiness to “well over 300,000”, the head of the alliance Jens Stoltenberg says. This will be part of the “biggest overhaul” of NATO’s defense since the Cold War, he tells a briefing. It will be agreed at a summit this week
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Israel -

Israel prepares for new parliamentary elections in the face of increasing threats from Iran / Hezbollah. Elections are currently scheduled for Oct. 25, 2022.

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Iran -

Iranian Khouzestan steel company, one of the biggest steel companies in Iran has shut down its factory due to cyberattacks. “As a result of cyberattacks on the company, Khouzestan steel is closed due to ‘technical issues’, until further notice”

Iran’s Defence Ministry says it has carried out a suborbital launch of its Zoljanah satellite carrier. Analysts view this rocket as a potential ICBM under the cover of a ‘scientific’ test.

The world powers’ JCPOA nuclear negotiations with Iran are potentially back on track after the European Union and the Islamic Republic jointly announced sufficient progress this past weekend.

OBSERVATION - Rumors are that the US may well be conceding to Iranian demands, with European support . Likely game changer is the loss of Russian oil and the desire to replace it with Iranian oil.

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Lebanon -

With Hezbollah’s pushing, Lebanon is threatening Israeli drilling in waters claimed by the country.

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Turkey -

Turkish Presidency spokesman stated that “We are ready for a new military operation in northern Syria, and it may start at any moment.”

OBSERVATION - Turkish offensives against Kurds in N. Syria and Iraq have been ongoing for some time now.
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Misc of Note -

On June 17, 2022, it was reported that the Bureau of Reclamation has given the seven states in the Colorado River system 60 days to draft an emergency plan to cut their water usage in the next 12 months or the Bureau of Reclamation will declare an emergency and make the cuts that need to be made.

OBSERVATION - Lake Mead has dropped to within 150 feet of dead pool levels. It won’t take long to drop the rest of the way because the lake is deep within the canyon now, with little storage, per foot of drop. The impacts to water users will be intense.

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