Replies

Freedom requires eternal vigilance
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Wuhan virus -

Kalifornia schools going back to mandated mask wearing after most lifted the requirement in April.
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Economy -

The White House announced that President Biden has authorized the use of the Defense Production Act “to accelerate domestic production of clean energy technologies,” including solar panel parts, building insulation, heat pumps, and more. Biden also announced “the temporary, duty-free importation of solar cells and modules from Southeast Asia to avoid disruptions to the electric power system,” as the Commerce Department described it. The president will allow U.S. solar companies obtain solar modules and cells from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam free of certain duties for two years “in order to ensure the U.S. has access to a sufficient supply of solar modules to meet electricity generation needs while domestic manufacturing scales up.”

The administration has received almost immediate pushback on this emergency declaration. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) told Fox News on Monday - “But more fundamentally, Bret, when gas is approaching $5-a-gallon on average across the country — $7 and $8 in some states — the fact that Biden White House is focused on solar energy as opposed to getting gas price under control really tells you where their priorities are.”

OBSERVATION - Essentially, the US has declared a national energy emergency. The emergency – declared to exist with respect to the threats to the availability of sufficient electricity generation capacity to meet expected customer demand – will stay in effect for at least 24 months or until it’s declared terminated, whichever occurs first. This is also a boon to China who has its fingers in these countries as a way to bypass US sanctions on products. This is also just another way biden et al are looking to shove their green energy policy down america’s throat.
ALSO NOTE - The ease with which a ‘NATIONAL EMERGENCY’ is declared. Wait until one comes out on other topics like climate change or gun violence.

According to AAA, the average price of regular unleaded gas surged 59 cents over the last month, and Monday’s average of $4.87 per gallon represents the most expensive average rate in United States history. Overall, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States has now more than doubled since Joe Biden entered the White House.

OBSERVATION- just yesterday here in the redoubt, had the gas price jump 30 cents / gallon at the station as I was pulling into it. Found a nearby station with the old price and filled up. 15 minutes later it too jumped 30 cents.

New York City billionaire and oil refiner John Catsimatidis said President Biden should “open up the spigots” as Americans feel the wrath of soaring costs at the pump and in the food store. “We have 100 years’ worth of oil. Let them open up the spigots and the price of crude oil will come back down to $55, $60, maybe $65 – half,” he stressed on “Mornings with Maria” Monday. “[Biden] wants to fly to Saudi Arabia and beg the Saudi Arabians to give us another half a million barrels at $120 a barrel… It makes no sense,” he added.

Natural gas prices continue to flux in the face of the Ukraine conflict as well as US markets trying to adjust to the switch over from winter heating to electrical power production requirements. All of these add up to expected record high prices for the foreseeable future.

To offset the water shortages, state lawmakers are targeting California farmers and their legally protected water rights. The lawmakers are proposing using eminent domain to buy up agricultural water rights, shutting down farming across the state, and redirecting the water to urban areas.

OBSERVATION - Doing so cuts off a huge component of what is left of Kalifornia’s income base. California grows approximately 30% of America’s vegetables and 60% of its fruits and nuts. It will also make food costs in Kalifornia and the rest of the nation increase.
Lets flip another view on shutting down farms - much of the Kalifornia left points to the need of farm workers as one of the justifications for uncontrolled illegals in the country. What is going to happen to all those farm workers with the loss of thousands of jobs?
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Invasion of Illegals -

A caravan of as many as 15,000 migrants, many from Venezuela and Cuba, has begun its march from southern Mexico to the US border. The caravan could be the largest in history and comes at a time when US President Joe Biden is facing criticism over an immigration crisis. A record flow of illegal aliens arrived at the US-Mexico border in April, averaging nearly 8,000 a day. More than two million migrants were encountered by Border Patrol officers last year, and traffic could surge to 18,000 a day when so-called Title 42 Covid-19 restrictions are lifted, Biden’s administration has estimated.

Reports, with video support, that migrant flights into New York have ratcheted up in recent weeks to almost one per night, and now a new airport is being utilized to handle the overflow, in an apparent bid by the administration to avoid images of border chaos before the November midterm elections. The majority of the migrants seen in the new videos appear to be Hispanic males in their late teens or early 20s.

OBSERVATION - Putting on the tinfoil hat - but this sounds like ready made foot soldiers for any leftist ‘revolution’ in this country. . . . . I shudder at the thought, but then what has happened over the past few years. . . . .
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Biden / Harris watch -

Biden: “Part of the reason I ran for president is because I was tired of trickle-down economics. It doesn’t work. My plans have produced the strongest, fastest, most wide-spread economic recovery America has ever experienced with record jobs.”

NOTE - - Must have gotten into Hunters drug stash

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CW2/Domestic violence -

The Biden Administration is claiming that it alone can determine truth in order to justify using the full power of government to punish dissent, former congresswoman and Democrat presidential contender Tulsi Gabbard warned on Saturday. “One of the latest tactics that they are using, as you well know, is they claim they want to protect us from ‘misinformation,’ protect us from that which they claim is not true,” Gabbard said.
“So, they decide what is true and false. They decide what is misinformation and what is information.
“And, those who don’t toe the line are accused of spreading misinformation and being targeted and smeared.”

OBSERVATION - Say what you will about Gabbard, she like Deriswhitz and Maher have had their ‘blind squirrel finds nut” moments lately. She lays out clearly how the biden regime is setting up conditions to wage war against any anti-progressive/socialist push back. More suggest at this link.

https://www.cnsnews.com/blog/craig-bannister/tulsi-gabbard-even-more-dangerous-getting-canceled-how-they-weaponize

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POLITICAL FRONT -
More than eight in 10 Americans (83%) now say that the economy is either an extremely or very important issue in determining how they will vote. That is according to the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll.
In the poll, 80% of Americans say that inflation is also an extremely or very important factor in how they will vote and for gas prices, it is 74%.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The Air Force’s fleet of airlifters — roughly half the size it was during the 1990s — has been operating at high tempo for two decades, wearing out airplanes with no near-term prospect of replacement and further cuts to the force planned, despite projected demand for airlift that will operate in increasingly contested environments.
It’s a problem Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost, commander of U.S. Transportation Command, highlighted in statements before the Senate Armed Services Committee March 29. The Air Force’s largest airlift fleet, the C-130 force, has experienced the greatest change “of all mobility priorities” over recent decades, losing almost 50 percent of its capacity “from a high of well over 500 aircraft in Operation Desert Storm to the current programmed levels,” she testified.

OBSERVATION - Our military hasn’t had a though through military procurement program since Reagan.
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China -

China is building a PLA naval base in Cambodia, reports Washington Post. This would be China’s second overseas military base (the other is in Djibouti). This base was initially a ‘secret’ operation.

Diplomatic tensions between China and Canada are rising again, with each country accusing the other of using their military aircraft flying near North Korea of provocation and harassment. Earlier, Canada accused of having one of their fighters buzz a Canadian aircraft which then dispensed chaff that got ingested into the Canadian’s jet engines.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

Sixteen jets (F-35A, F-15K, KF-16) from the South Korean side and four F-16 jets from the U.S. side participated in the exercise, flying over the Yellow Sea in formation, according to Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff. Exercise reportedly in response to NK’s recent rocket launches.

Top U.S. official warns of ‘swift, forceful’ response if North Korea carries out nuke test. The nature of the ‘response’ is not clear. The use of the word “forceful” certainly seems to imply that a military “solution” to Kim’s provocations could be on the table.

The South Korean presidential office is reportedly reviewing President Yoon Suk-yeol’s proposed attendance at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit to be held on June 29 and 30 in Madrid, Spain.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia initially hard pivoted to a readjustment of combat forces to sieze the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. However, Russia has failed in this attempt and has continually narrowed its focus now to capturing Sievierodonetsk

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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RUMINT -
Unconfirmed reports that almost all Russian roadblocks in Melitopol have been abandoned by Russian troops. Some are saying that this indicate that there is an upcoming Russian offensive on Zaporizhzhia and Kryvyi Rih NOTE - An offensive action against those two cities/regions has been rumbling for a while. However, the fixation of Russia to capture Severodonetsk has drained Russian forces available to launch such attacks. In fact Ukraine has seized on the thin Russian forces for counter attacks of its own south of Kryvyi Rih.

Further unconfirmed reports from a leaked SIGINT source that orders have been sent that the seizure of Severodonetsk needs to be accomplished by June 10th. We’ve seen similar reported deadlines come an go, so this may be Russian scuttle but.

Logistics -

- The Russian Navy in the Black Sea less and less using regular Kalibr cruise missiles. Instead, it relies more on anti-ship missiles firing them on the land targets inside Ukraine, said the Ukrainian Navy in today’s situational summary report. If so, suggests a shrinking supply of the more accurate and longer ranged Kalibr missiles.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- The death of another Russian general in the war in Ukraine is a sign that there are not enough lower ranked officers to carry out all the missions, according to a Russian state journalist, Business Insider reported on Monday. The journalist, Alexander Sladkov, said that Maj. Gen. Roman Kutuzov had “led soldiers into attack, as if there are not enough colonels,” according to a translation by the BBC.
- The Russian State Duma Defense Committee has stated that they are weighing the possibility of requesting “Peacekeeping” Forces from Nations part of the CSTO Alliance like Armenia and Tajikistan to assist in providing Security and Assistance to Regions in Eastern Ukraine
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Warm and dry over the 10 day forecast period.

RUMINT -
Kiev claimed that its forces coerced the Russian navy to “retreat” 100 kilometers from the Ukrainian Coast, though this development hasn’t been independently confirmed. In the event that there’s any credibility to Moscow’s reported naval movements, then it’s unlikely that they were done under duress like its opponents allege. Rather, they might have been part of a goodwill gesture undertaken by the Kremlin in response to talks with Turkey over de-mining the waters around Odessa as part of the so-called “grain corridor” that they’re trying to create.

OTOH The UK Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces have been strengthening their air defense assets on Snake Island, and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported that Russian forces deployed additional S-300 air defense battalions to Crimea. Taken together, these reports suggest that Ukrainian naval pressure and anti-ship missiles—likely including those provided by the UK and other states—have forced the Russian grouping in the northwestern Black Sea to rely more on coastal and air defense as they are pushed away from the Ukrainian shoreline.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The past 24 have been relatively subdued AFA volume of reporting goes. Russia’s attacks on Severodonetsk may have reached a tactical pause on both sides, but reporting has been very confusing. Also generally quiet across other fronts.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More Russian artillery fire. Ukrainian forces resumed attacks pressing towards the Russian border but with no significant progress.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation, fog of war in full effect now

Russian forces in the Izyum salient attempted to conduct offensive to the southeast towards Dovhenke and Dolyna. Reports indicate they were not successful.

Russian forces resumed attacks towards the southwest out of Lyman, with limited gains..

The battle for Severodonetsk continues. The fog of war lies heavily over the conflict in part for OPSEC and another just too dynamic of a situation where ground is being traded back and forth (reminds me of some of the US civil war conflicts). Through it all, it appears Russia has control of most to the town, Ukraine forces are holding gains from the counter attack and Russian forces are having difficulty absent supporting artillery.

According to Ukraine sources, Ukrainian army repelled Russian assault attempts at Nahirne, Berestove, Krynychne and Roty - towns along the northern and southern flank of the Popasna salient. These attacks in part seem to be an attempt to close off Urkrain’s supply lines to Severodonetsk.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
More artillery fire by Russian/separatist forces along the loc

Mariupol, now has a CHOLERA epidemic due to destroyed sewage infrastructure and has been quarantined.

Crimea Front -
See RUMINT on Russian offensive.

Russian artillery hit targets between Kherson and Mykolaiv. Ukraine continued pressuring Russian forces in the Kherson Oblast, particularly in the Davydiv Brid region. Russian forces tried unsuccessfully to counter attack Ukrainian forces to halt its advances.

Russian Defense Ministry Shoigu announced establishing road connection between Russia and occupied Crimea via occupied parts of Ukraine, and water supply to Crimea

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.

Russian Territory -
Large explosion reported at an unmanned site in the Belgorod district

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.

BLUF - Intense fighting in Severodonetsk will continue as Russia throws in its reserves to sway the battle. Watching the southern region for any further evidence of a pending Russian offensive northward into the eastern Donbas region. Heavy artillery precursor fires have been occurring over the past week, but not certain if Russia has the manpower and resources necessary to launch a successful attack against a heavily dug in Ukraine force AND continue operations to seize Severodonetsk at the same time.

Russia continues to rumble about NATO/Western resupply and equipment for Ukraine and threatening to expand interdiction efforts. So far it appears Russia has been very unsuccessful. The big question is is putin ready to potential bring NATO directly into the fight with a strike outside Ukraine?
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Moldova/Transnistria -
Very little being reported lately on tensions there.

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Europe / NATO General -

Some 40 warships of NATO member countries on Saturday arrived in the Swedish capital Stockholm for NATO’s BALTOPS 22 exercises that will start in the Baltic Sea tomorrow. Speaking to reporters, Swedish Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist said that his country and Finland will also join the drills.
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Israel -

Syrian state media says that Israel launched airstrikes from the Golan Heights, targeting several sites south of Damascus, causing material damage. It adds that “most” of the missiles were intercepted by air defenses.

OBSERVATION - Targets most likely were Iranian/Hezbollah storage facilities. Only a couple days ago an Iranian Boeing 747 cargo dropped off stuff there, and Israel commonly hits quickly thereafter to prevent distribution/delivery of those items.

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Iran -
The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors is meeting Monday through Friday in Vienna, and is expected to censure Iran for the first time since June 2020.

OBSERVATION - Some think this will have an impact on Iran’s nuclear desires. More likely Iran will deflect and obfuscate even more. With a weak, impotent US, they have their play of the field.

An Iranian missile engineer has been found dead, according to news reports Friday from Iran. The scientist has been identified as Ayoob Entezari, an aerospace engineer linked to drone and missile development at a research center in the Iranian city of Yazd. Initial reports claimed Enterzari died last Tuesday as a result of poisoning, though local authorities have denied poisoning was the cause of death.

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Syria -

RUMINT Russia has raised its military alert status in the face of threats of illegal armed groups in the Syrian region of Idlib following Turkey’s announcement of the start of a military operation in the Arab country.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

Al-Qaida is once again flourishing in the Taliban-ruled “Islamic Emirate,” a news report released by the United Nations found. Al-Qaida is not the only jihadi group spreading its deadly wings in Afghanistan. The Islamic State (ISIS), which become a terrorist group with global reach under President Barack Obama’s watch, is building a stronghold in the Taliban-run country. According to the UN document, “International concern is building over the presence of al-Qaida, IS and ‘many other terrorist groups and fighters on Afghan soil,’”

The UK daily Guardian reported the alarming findings of the UN report:
Al-Qaida has a haven in Afghanistan under the Taliban and “increased freedom of action” with the potential of launching new long-distance attacks in coming years, a UN report based on intelligence supplied by member states says.
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Turkey -

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is scheduled to visit Turkey on Wednesday to discuss Black Sea security, de-mining areas around Ukrainian ports, and reopening Ukrainian grain shipments. Turkish officials say that export operations around the port of Odessa could begin in 3-5 weeks after an agreement is reached.
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Misc of Note -

Cereal prices across Africa surged this week due to a slump in grain exports from Ukraine and disrupted supplies of fertilizer from Russia. Chad’s government declared a food emergency due to a lack of grain supplies. The cost of basic food staples has also risen in Niger with prices soaring over 30%.

OBSERVATION - Food shortages is one of the top reasons for wars and civil unrest. Many African nations are already on the threshold of or have active civil wars. Instability in that region will likely spread ripples across the globe.

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Happy hump day.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Mexico’s president is reviving calls for a continental superstate that would combine North American employers and South American employees – and sideline tens of millions of middle-class Americans.

“I will go in July to visit [President Joe Biden] at the White House and I want to discuss with him the issue of the integration of all America,” President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said at a press conference in Mexico’s presidential palace. He continued: “My position is that, just as how the European community was created … we have to do that in America.”

However, any unification could only come after the United States and southern countries resolve their disagreements, he said: “There has to be a change in the policy, an end to confrontation, an end to hate, an end to threats, the blockades, the foreign interference, and choose brotherhood, good neighbor policies.”
The same continent-wide superstate was pushed in 2001 by President G.W. Bush and Mexico’s then-president, Vicente Fox. Their unpopular “Any Willing Worker” plan would have allowed U.S. employers to easily import low-wage employees from central and south America. It was derailed following the 9/11 attack.
The policy would spike Wall Street and Fortune 500 profits by giving them with cheap foreign workers plus many new foreign consumers.

OBSERVATION - Elimination of national boundaries is a sub set of the GGR’s goals. No need for nations when there is a global leadership. National govts just a conduit for the local implementation of the global govt edicts.

WEF removed an article on the use of soundwaves to control behavior. Tinfoil stuff except it was published by the WEF. Below is the link to the web archived article. Weird, but dangerous implications

https://web.archive.org/web/20181211093235/https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/11/mind-control-ultrasound-neuroscience/

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Economy -

Avg gas prices are at an all time high of 4.91 per gallon.
Contributing to this is the loss of refineries. Six refineries with a capacity of about 801,000 bpd of oil have shuttered over the last two years amid the pandemic, federal data showed. In addition, five refineries with a capacity of 408,100 bpd of oil are idle, the largest number of idle refineries since 2012.

OBSERVATION - Many of these appear to have shut down due to aging equipment, and some by lack of workers following the wuhan shutdown. Compounded with the stack of new fed environmental regulations that make them cost prohibitive to bring back on line.

Yesterday, Yellen testified before the Senate Finance Committee and went further than just admitting she was wrong. Now she admits inflation is going to be with us for a while.
“I do expect inflation to remain high although I very much hope that it will be coming down now,” Yellen told the Senate Finance Committee during a hearing on the agency’s latest budget request. “I think that bringing inflation down should be our number one priority.”

Then she takes a snort from Hunter’s stash -
“We now are entering a period of transition from one of historic recovery to one that can be marked by stable and steady growth,” she said. “Making this shift is a central piece of the president’s plan to get inflation under control without sacrificing the economic gains we’ve made.”

OBSERVATION - This sways from cluelessness to deliberate demolition of the economy. Such a demolition is necessary for the GGR to ride in on their white horse and save the world.

Having gone from a shipping crisis has now apparently swung to the other side, a sudden drop of shipping. The latest ocean container bookings data reveals that despite the strong levels of inbound cargo during the first five months of 2022, import demand is not just softening — it’s dropping off a cliff. Because capacity on the trans-Pacific has remained relatively stable, Drewry’s container spot rates from China to the West Coast have plunged 41% month-over-month to $9,630.

OBSERVATION - Some attribute this to inventory overstock ages - unfortunately in areas not critical like baby food, etc. Target stores reportedly are having sales to move merchandise. OTOH, increased inventory may well be due to tectonic changes in spending driven by sky high and rising gas prices and food prices.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

The Department of Homeland Security on Tuesday issued a warning concerning “the continued heightened threat environment” in the U.S. due to current events and “anti-government/anti authority violent extremism.”
Events such as the November midterm elections and the possibility of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade “could be exploited to justify acts of violence against a range of possible targets,” DHS said in a National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) bulletin.

OBSERVATION - Greater emphasis towards alleged ‘white nationalist” threats, deemphasizing those from the left. Hate to say it, but lays the ground work for any false flag operations prior to the midterms. Further weaponizing the govt against citizens.

For first time, prosecutors are attempting to break a network of violent Antifa cells. A secret grand jury in San Diego has brought 29 felony counts, including conspiracy, against 11 members—naming them explicitly as Antifa - southern California that carried out a brutal attacks on the beach that victimized 16, including minors.

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POLITICAL FRONT -

San Francisco removes Chesa Boudin in historic recall. Even SF progressives couldn’t stand him any longer.

The J6 sham is going prime time this week in a desperate attempt to redefine the narrative for the midterms.

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China -

Chinese Defense - “We firmly reject any Australian military activities in the South China Sea”.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

South Korea and the United States held an air power demonstration involving 20 fighter jets Tuesday, the allies’ latest display of military strength amid signs North Korea may soon conduct a nuclear test.

The drill, held in the sea off South Korea’s western coast, was in response to North Korea’s unprecedented launch of eight ballistic missiles Sunday, according to a statement from South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense.

OBSERVATION - As with the rocket test response, I don’t think this will have much of an impact on Kim.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its the fourth month of the war .

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russian Navy ships deployed to Baltic sea for drills as NATO holds massive Baltic maneuvers. The scheduled drills at the Baltic Fleet’s naval practice ranges involve over 20 combat ships and gunboats. (TASS)

Russian occupation authorities report that grain stolen in Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine now being transported via railway to Crimea

RUMINT -
Still monitoring rumors of some kind of June 10th deadline for the capture of Severodonetsk.

Logistics -
- Word rumbling around that Russia is going to take PT-76 light amphibious tanks out of mothballs and send them to Ukraine. The PT-76 amphibious light tank equipped with the underpowered 76mm D56T gun was produced from 1951 to 1967 and then was replaced by BMP-1.

- A Vasily Bykov Class patrol ship was observed departing Sevastopol Bay with a SA-15 Tor SAM missile system on its helicopter deck. An interesting development to adapt to lack of ship based ADA capabilities. A lot of discussion on how well this will work.

- Russia transferring more MLRS and 152mm howitzers all the way from Irkutsk to Ukraine.

- Russia is now confirmed to have lost 12% of its entire Ka-52 Attack Helicopter Fleet.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- A Russian mercenary who gained notoriety for butchering prisoners of war and civilians in the Donbas has been killed fighting in Ukraine. Vladimir Andonov, 44, a sabotage and reconnaissance specialist in the ranks of the shadowy Wagner Group, was shot by a sniper near Kharkiv during a night-time mission on June 5, Russian media says. Andonov was known to Russians as ‘Vakha’ or ‘the volunteer from Buryatia’ after the region he was from, but to Ukrainians he was ‘the executioner’ due to massacres he helped carry out during Russia’s first invasion of the country in 2014.

Economic Impact -
- New Zealand imposes sanctions against 44 Russian and Belarusian companies.
- Fiji’s top court allowed U.S. authorities to take possession of a $235 million, 350-foot yacht said to be owned by Russian billionaire Suleiman Kerimov.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Warm and dry over the 10 day forecast period.

Air raid alerts currently for nearly all of Ukraine. This comes roughly six hours after Bear Net was active.

RUMINT -
Russian forces reportedly authorized troops to shoot civilians and indiscriminately destroy any vehicles at checkpoints in Kherson Oblast, likely indicating the growing fear of Ukrainian resistance in the region.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The battle for Severodonetsk continues, with Russia making some gains to retake the city. There is increasing evidence that Ukranian forces are using the counter attack to prepare positions on the west side of the Siverskyi Donets River for eventual fall back after a controlled eventual withdrawal from Severodonetsk.
More concentrated artillery fire access much of the rest of the battle fronts. More missile strikes that have no reported affects.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
More Russian artillery fire. Situation on the ground is relatively static.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation, fog of war in full effect now

Russian forces in the Izyum salient attempted to conduct offensive to the southeast towards Dovhenke and Dolyna. Reports indicate they were not successful.

Russian forces resumed attacks towards the southwest out of Lyman, with limited gains. Both bridges over the Donets linking Raihorodok with Lyman were destroyed by Ukraine.

The battle for Severodonetsk continues. Most reports indicate that Russian may have gained some of the city back, but in general control is relatively static to highly fluid. LOL, such is the fog of war. Of course as noted this can change very quickly.

Currently the best available information indicates that Russia has regained control of the residential area of the city while Ukraine controls the industrial center. Russian forces also reportedly control Metolkine and Borivske, two southeastern suburbs of Severodonetsk.

Some analysts are beginning to note that Russia is switching artillery tactics to counter Ukrainan close combat cancelation of support by targeting Ukrainan held sectors with massive artillery strikes. They used this tactic in Mariupol, avoiding potential friendly casualties, by essentially turning those sectors to rubble before sending troops in.

Russian attempts to advance on the city from the southeast, near Toshkivka and Ustynivka have reportedly failed.

Russia fired artillery all around the Popasna salient, in part to support ongoing ground attacks. No significant gains noted.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
More heavy artillery fire by Russian/separatist forces all along the LOC northwest of Donetsk. May be a precursor for a ground offensive.

Crimea Front -
More Russian artillery along the LOC between Mykolaiv to Novovrontokvia - areas of Ukrainan counteroffensive actions - to try to pin Ukrainan forces down.
Russian forces failed to regain advanced positions on the western (now Ukrainian-occupied) bank of the Ihulets River

OSIMINT showed a build up of ADA missiles and artillery on Snake Island.

Western Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report.

Russian Territory -
Russians increasingly using the Belgorod area as a launching site for Kalibur missiles.

Partisian Resistance *NEW* -
New category as increasing reports come in on partisan attacks within Russian controlled territory. Unconfirmed report from the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces authorized troops to shoot civilians and indiscriminately destroy any vehicles at checkpoints in Kherson Oblast, likely indicating the growing fear of Ukrainian resistance in the region and increasingly draconian measures to restrict Ukrainian movements.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be fluid.

BLUF - Intense fighting in Severodonetsk will continue as Russia throws in its reserves to sway the battle.

Ukraine is clearly making preparations to eventually pull back and force the Russians to conduct river crossing operations if they want to pursue the attacks westward. Crossing operations of the Siverskyi Donets River last month were disastrous and resulted in the loss of at least two Russian BTGs. Terrain favors Ukraine, as they control the high ground to the west as well as having good fields of fire on any existing bridges or crossing points. However, it looks like Ukraine has bought a couple of weeks more of luring Russia into a meat grinder - especially forcing them to commit reserves to the battle. Ukraine defenses have held the shoulders of the Severodonetsk pocket open and thwarted Russian advances to gain the tactical advantage that way.

Lots of other force maneuverings on both sides. Many seem to think both sides are waiting for the other to commit to offensive actions before responding. Most likely due on the Russian’s part on the focus on Severodonetsk. Russia hasn’t the personnel and equipment available for a significant operation, though it could locally make some limited counter attacks. Same for Ukraine. But for now it is a wait and see situation.

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Israel -

Hezbollah has recently stepped up construction on military infrastructure near Lebanon’s border with Israel, but the Israeli army will eventually “reduce it to nothing” and make those responsible pay, a senior Israeli general threatened Tuesday. “We will destroy the infrastructure of the Lebanese villages on the line of contact if Hezbollah uses it.”

US envoy to hold maritime talks in Beirut as tensions flare over Israeli rig in disputed waters.

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Iran -

Iran on Tuesday threatened to “raze” the cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa.
“For any mistake made by the enemy, we will raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground by the order of the Supreme Leader,” the Islamic Republic’s ground forces commander, Kiumars Heydari, told the semi-official Iranian Tasnim news agency.
The threat came less than a day after a report on Monday said Thai security forces had thwarted several recent Iranian attempts to harm Western and Israeli targets in the Southeast Asian country — a popular tourist destination for Israelis.

Iran / Mashhad - Yazd train derailment kills at least 17, leaves dozens injured including at least 5 in critical condition. Reports coming out was that there was a caterpillar excavator parked on the rail line. No word on deliberate or accidentally.

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Iraq -

Iraqi efforts to form a new government after the late 2021 parliamentary elections have been blocked by a coalition of various Shia and Kurdish groups, plus a few Sunni factions that oppose a government dominated by powerful Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr. The stalemate benefits Iran and hurts Iraq and Sadr has backed a solution that involves new elections. Given current voter attitudes towards Iran, a new election would create an even more anti-Iran parliament. Sadr is also seeking to assure other political parties that he will continue acting in the best interests of Iraq.
The 2021 election was won by pro-Sadr parties that regard Iran and Iraqi government corruption as the most serious problem facing Iraq. Most Iraqi voters agreed with Sadr, who demanded that all militias be disarmed and disbanded. This demand was aimed at Iran, which has used the militias to create a legal Iran-backed armed force in Iraq.
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Syria -
Al-Assad forces and planes from the Russian Air Force conducted joint military air maneuvers near the Syrian Golan Heights, hours after Israel carried out its fourth raid this month against targets within the areas controlled by the Pro-Assad forces.

OBSERVATION - Russia involvement intended as a warning to Israel, who’s ‘cooperation’ to avoid direct conflict has been degraded lately. Increasing chance of direct Israel - Russia engagements.

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