To add your name to the growing Nevada ping list, FReepmail me...
Posted on 11/02/2020 5:12:10 PM PST by CheshireTheCat
....Key figures — Democrat advantage of 88,000 in Clark County would roughly match the advantage Clinton had in 2016.
As of yesterday, the Clark County advantage stood at 87,500, and Ralston is estimating that when Monday’s mailed-in ballots are counted (no more early in-person voting), the Clark County lead could exceed 90,000.
BUT, without much fanfare, Ralston noted in his last short update this morning that the Democrat statewide lead is only 47,000. That means in early voting and mail-in voting in the rural counties, Trump is already leading Biden by 43,000 votes, only 12,000 behind his total advantage over Clinton in 2016.
For 2016, Clinton’s statewide lead going into election day was 45,000 ballots, and she won by 22,000 votes.
To put it another way — in 2016, Clinton’s overall statewide lead of 45,000 ballots was 64% of her Clark County firewall.
In 2020, Biden’s overall lead of 47,000 ballots is only 52% of his Clark County firewall.
Extrapolating to account for the 200,000 newly registered voters in 2020, Ralston estimated that the statewide lead from early and mail-in voting needed to be 54,000 for Biden to have the same cushion going into election day that Clinton enjoyed. And as just indicated, at only 47,000, Biden is 7000 ballots short of the “safe zone” on a statewide basis. Using 2016 as a key, that means Trump needs to perform only about 15,000 votes better on election day than he did in 2016 in order to flip the state.
A combination of a higher percentage turnout from the Rural Counties than Clark County and better-than-expected support from Hispanic voters would likely combine to give Trump those votes....
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
I think there are more Trump democrats this time. Was there much of a #walkaway movement back then? Or Blexit?
I hope Burgess Owens wins his seat. He’s an asset to conservatives.
Allow me to offer my expert advice: Normal citizens of Nevada-—get off your masses tomorrow and vote. And bring 2 friends!
I would say there are two factors.
1 - In 2016 there were a lot of Bernie Bros who voted Trump to get back at the Hillary camp. Will they stick this time?
2 - Promoted by the Trump campaign, so grain of salt, there could be a large Democrat contingent coming over. But we have Never-Trumpers, does it even out?
Isn’t Owens running in Utah?
I do not believe that other than a few high profile people that there really are more than a tiny percentage of people who are still “Never-Trumpers”. Most of the people who said that they were last time have fallen into line because President Trump has proven with his policies and court appointments that he more a man of his word than most Republicans.
Ben Shapiro did not endorse Trump last time around. This time he is all-in - if you check his YouTube channel from the last couple of weeks especially. Millions watch his channel and listen to his corresponding podcast collectively - that will probably swing some more votes that were not in his corner last time around.
Yes, and he’s up from what I hear.
“1 - In 2016 there were a lot of Bernie Bros who voted Trump to get back at the Hillary camp. Will they stick this time?”
I don’t see why, now that they have a clear path to their socialist utopian dreams if the demented dimwit and Kameltoe win.
@020 election in NOTHING like 2016. The world has changed so the Clinton comparisons make no sense to me.
Biden beat bernie again.
My daughter did some research online and found our neighborhood on a site that lists which houses have registered Dems or Reps. The majority are Dems but as far as signs, Trump wins hands down.
We all voted early, 7 of us. I was going to hold out for election day, but just felt I needed to go early to make sure I got my vote in for Trump!
In my neighborhood in NW Las Vegas (Centennial), I’ve counted dozens and dozens of Trump signs and flags...one, literally one single Biden sign.
Who know, Nevada might surprise, the Clark County vote might not be what they think it will be.
I’m in Silverado Ranch. I am hoping because the unions don’t have their voters working, they won’t be able to bus them to the polls.
My husband is at a strip hotel, non union, but he says that many of the union members there are voting for Trump.
I looked at TargetSmart projections, present party registrations, and turnout stats for Dems and Republicans. I think Trump may win Nevada (I don’t know how accurate TargetSmart is though).
To add your name to the growing Nevada ping list, FReepmail me...
This is material I posted on another thread but it is specifically about Nevada:
Nevada
Nevada is an all-mail state in 2020, but it was not an all-mail ballot state in 2016. A little more than 2/3rds of its votes were cast before Election Day in 2016, so there might be a reasonable comparison to be made. For these statistics, I’m including in my Nevada data a large Clark County mail ballot report that I downloaded on Sunday that is not yet reflected in the state reports, and that Nevada reporter Jon Ralston believes is key to a Biden win.
Party % 2020 Early Vote % 2016 Early Vote % 2016 Actual Vote
Democrats 40.3% 42.1% 47.9%
Republicans 35.9% 36.2% 45.5%
Dem Lead +4.4 +5.9 +2.9
Here, the early vote data suggests that Biden will eek out a very narrow win in Nevada, with a shift of 1.5 percentage points in the partisan distribution of the electorate. But, what is also suggestive in these data is that Trump made up ground on Election Day in 2016. This is the primarily forecasting confound for the all the other states. The past election is not the same, and comparisons must be made carefully. Most likely, Nevada will not see the same Election Day vote as in 2016. If it did, it would have a turnout rate off the charts, perhaps even higher than Colorado or Oregon. That seems unlikely. Most likely, the Election Day vote might be closer to, say, a quarter of the overall electorate. If this is the case, then there is less gas in the tank for Trump to roll to victory on the strength of the Election Day vote.
Another factor present in Nevada is that there are more voters not aligned with the major political parties among the early voters. Again, this is expected if we are to have a high turnout election. All things equal, the percentage margin between the two major parties is reduced due to the increase of unaffiliated voters.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/Early_Vote_Analysis_11_01.html
Target Early data Seems to point to Trump
Unless TargetSmart is Trolling Trump people,
NV is Early Voting is 45 Rep / 45 Dem with 1.1M votes in.
Maybe the Unaffiliated are all Biden voters, but that would be weird.
I’m a short jump across the desert (Floyd Lamb actually) from you in Log Cabin.
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