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I think there are more Trump democrats this time. Was there much of a #walkaway movement back then? Or Blexit?
I hope Burgess Owens wins his seat. He’s an asset to conservatives.
Allow me to offer my expert advice: Normal citizens of Nevada-—get off your masses tomorrow and vote. And bring 2 friends!
@020 election in NOTHING like 2016. The world has changed so the Clinton comparisons make no sense to me.
My daughter did some research online and found our neighborhood on a site that lists which houses have registered Dems or Reps. The majority are Dems but as far as signs, Trump wins hands down.
We all voted early, 7 of us. I was going to hold out for election day, but just felt I needed to go early to make sure I got my vote in for Trump!
To add your name to the growing Nevada ping list, FReepmail me...
This is material I posted on another thread but it is specifically about Nevada:
Nevada
Nevada is an all-mail state in 2020, but it was not an all-mail ballot state in 2016. A little more than 2/3rds of its votes were cast before Election Day in 2016, so there might be a reasonable comparison to be made. For these statistics, I’m including in my Nevada data a large Clark County mail ballot report that I downloaded on Sunday that is not yet reflected in the state reports, and that Nevada reporter Jon Ralston believes is key to a Biden win.
Party % 2020 Early Vote % 2016 Early Vote % 2016 Actual Vote
Democrats 40.3% 42.1% 47.9%
Republicans 35.9% 36.2% 45.5%
Dem Lead +4.4 +5.9 +2.9
Here, the early vote data suggests that Biden will eek out a very narrow win in Nevada, with a shift of 1.5 percentage points in the partisan distribution of the electorate. But, what is also suggestive in these data is that Trump made up ground on Election Day in 2016. This is the primarily forecasting confound for the all the other states. The past election is not the same, and comparisons must be made carefully. Most likely, Nevada will not see the same Election Day vote as in 2016. If it did, it would have a turnout rate off the charts, perhaps even higher than Colorado or Oregon. That seems unlikely. Most likely, the Election Day vote might be closer to, say, a quarter of the overall electorate. If this is the case, then there is less gas in the tank for Trump to roll to victory on the strength of the Election Day vote.
Another factor present in Nevada is that there are more voters not aligned with the major political parties among the early voters. Again, this is expected if we are to have a high turnout election. All things equal, the percentage margin between the two major parties is reduced due to the increase of unaffiliated voters.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/Early_Vote_Analysis_11_01.html
Target Early data Seems to point to Trump
Unless TargetSmart is Trolling Trump people,
NV is Early Voting is 45 Rep / 45 Dem with 1.1M votes in.
Maybe the Unaffiliated are all Biden voters, but that would be weird.
If the Mormons that sat out 2016 come home, Trump has a chance to eek out a win in this state.