Posted on 11/02/2020 5:12:10 PM PST by CheshireTheCat
....Key figures — Democrat advantage of 88,000 in Clark County would roughly match the advantage Clinton had in 2016.
As of yesterday, the Clark County advantage stood at 87,500, and Ralston is estimating that when Monday’s mailed-in ballots are counted (no more early in-person voting), the Clark County lead could exceed 90,000.
BUT, without much fanfare, Ralston noted in his last short update this morning that the Democrat statewide lead is only 47,000. That means in early voting and mail-in voting in the rural counties, Trump is already leading Biden by 43,000 votes, only 12,000 behind his total advantage over Clinton in 2016.
For 2016, Clinton’s statewide lead going into election day was 45,000 ballots, and she won by 22,000 votes.
To put it another way — in 2016, Clinton’s overall statewide lead of 45,000 ballots was 64% of her Clark County firewall.
In 2020, Biden’s overall lead of 47,000 ballots is only 52% of his Clark County firewall.
Extrapolating to account for the 200,000 newly registered voters in 2020, Ralston estimated that the statewide lead from early and mail-in voting needed to be 54,000 for Biden to have the same cushion going into election day that Clinton enjoyed. And as just indicated, at only 47,000, Biden is 7000 ballots short of the “safe zone” on a statewide basis. Using 2016 as a key, that means Trump needs to perform only about 15,000 votes better on election day than he did in 2016 in order to flip the state.
A combination of a higher percentage turnout from the Rural Counties than Clark County and better-than-expected support from Hispanic voters would likely combine to give Trump those votes....
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
If the Mormons that sat out 2016 come home, Trump has a chance to eek out a win in this state.
Have a friend call me tonight to tell me after listening to Shapiro, that he was quite dismayed because the gist of listening was that Shapiro said Trump had about a 10% chance of winning. Does anyone know anything about this, who can weigh in on it?
All of the “expert” polling websites are releasing those numbers and that is what he was referencing.
Trump’s chances were 9% in 2016.
Polls can be made wrong if the right people show up to vote.
But we have Never-Trumpers, does it even out?
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...and all 5 of them work at the Lincoln Project.
You wouldn’t happen to have a count of houses that have registered Dems but have Trump signs, would you?
I have friends that live in Vegas. All voting Trump of course. One of them is a bartender at a casino and he said everyone he knows is so pizzed off about the governor’s Covid BS that they are all voting Trump.
I have no idea because I never thought of checking! Wish I had, that would have been an interesting bit to know.
I believe that. My husband is non union but he talks to everyone. One of the union reps told him the union members are very angry and voting for Trump.
We’ll see how that plays out. There’s still a lot of people out of work, including me.
My friends are back at work but not making any money. One is a cocktail waitress at a casino and the other 2 are bartenders at major casinos. They’re gripe is.....no business and no money. They still have what they call good nights but they are fewer and farer in between. One of thems son owns a bar in Tonapah and their biz has dropped significantly....after they were allowed to reopen.
That’s true all over the state. My husband works at a major casino on the strip as a dice dealer. Tokes are way down. The clientele are mostly thugs from SoCal.
Wynn’s casino Encore is closed during the week. Guests only from Thursday to Monday at noon. MGM Resorts is considering closing the Mandalay Bay until convention business starts to come back. Local casinos are doing better than the tourist heavy strip and downtown.
It always takes Nevada longer to recover from these recessions. If Trump wins, it will be sooner but if Biden wins, it may be until 2022 or 2023 before Las Vegas is back at full capacity.
I just feel feel for the people. Their way of making a living has been ruined. People used to making $250 a night. Same for hairdressers, manicurists, etc. My nail gal has maybe 1/5 of the business she had before. She let everyone in her shop go
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