Click the map to create your own at Assuming the shy Trump voter is plus 4 in the polls we've seen so far.
Does he or does he not take it up the ass? What else could it be?
Nate must be on the sauce..................
Silver is the chump that Drudge has been sourcing every day for months. More of their demoralization campaign. He’s also a balding little twinkie and Drudge’s butt puppet.
Good. If he had Trump winning I’d be worried.
Well at least Nate’s moving in the right direction. In 2016 he had Hillary at 98%.
Assuming the shy Trump voter is plus 4 in the polls we've seen so far.
No, "possible" is not a prediction. I swear, to be allowed to write type for GP, you must have to provide medical evidence of brain damage.
Nate won’t admit he’s biased
Silver loves poles. He could be sitting on a big one that he hasn’t told us about yet.
Silver doesn’t predict anything. He forecasts probabilities. You can question the methodology he uses to make his probabilistic forecasts (which basically is just to look at polling data — his forecasts will be off of polling data is not accurate). What you can’t do is conclude that he’s wrong based on the actual election outcome. He predicted Trump had a 20% chance of winning in 2016, not a 0% chance. Therefore he wasn’t wrong.
To give an analogy, flip a coin three times. I predict that there’s a 12.5% chance that you’ll flip heads all three times. Thus there’s an 87.5% chance that you won’t. I’m not actually predicting an outcome if you did flip three coins. I’m predicting that it’s more likely that you won’t flip three heads than that you will. If you actually flip three heads, my prediction was not proven wrong — you just happened to see an outcome that was of lower probability. The chance of flipping heads is not zero.
To extend the analogy, just as Silver relies on accurate polling data as a basic assumption in his forecast model, I relied on your use of a coin that has equal probability of landing on either side. If you somehow unbalanced your coin so that it lands on heads 90% of the time, my forecast of 12.5% chance of three heads would be way off (72.9% would be the correct value using that’s 90% heads coin). Similarly if polling data is inaccurate, so will Silver’s forecast.
I always trust poll analysts who use cartoons to highlight their data. Seriously, this clown nailed it in 2012 and the Left has genuflected Silver ever since. I noticed how even when it was obvious Trump was going to win, Silver consistently prattled the DNC line. No wonder he’s so revered by the media.
Lil Natie is the same schmuck who said Hillary Clinton would win up to 7PM EST on Election Night. Pay no attention except to note he is starting Grandpa Groundhog’s chances at 20% lower than this prediction for Clinton. Actually Lil Natie is playing the Democrats. If anyone looks no further than the fake polls and gives credence to them, well of course Grandpa Groundhog is winning, but even a schmuck like Lil Natie knows they are fake and meaningless.
Trump gets at least what he got in 2016. He has lost no ground. In fact hes gained even more.
The dems, Blmers/Antifa thugs, FR Trolls/posters, and other left wingers for Bidementia paid by the ChiComs can now just rest/relax, stay home and smoke dope or whatever.
Bidementia will totally win!