Posted on 09/16/2020 2:56:16 PM PDT by EyesOfTX
Writing at UncoverDC.com, historian Larry Schweikart has a terrific analysis arguing that the Democrat Party has made a huge miscalculation in its exploitation of the China Virus crisis, a blunder that likely has already cost the Biden/Harris ticket – or is it Harris/Biden? – the election. Schweikart further argues that the blunder will result in Democrat losses up and down the ballot.
Arguing that the Dems overplayed their hands on the China Virus and really rolled out their Soros-funded riot strategy too early in the summer, Schweikart says those mistakes have allowed President Trump to own the “law and order” issue to the point that it has now been displaced in the public’s mind by the economy as the most important election issue.
Excerpt from the UncoverDC piece:
Saturday News Roundup: Adios Tik-Tok, Bye-Bye Bolton Book Advance, and America's Garbage News Media VDO.AI With the COVID-17 China Virus and the riots, I kept thinking “why did they roll this out so early?” Perhaps (or perhaps not) they didn’t have any control over the China Virus and the national, then state, response. But the riots? Those were clearly orchestrated and pre-packaged. The Soros-backed groups could have used those at any time. By rioting so early, it gave Trump a chance to clearly be the only “law and order” candidate—so much so that polling by my friend Richard Baris has shown that by far, now, the economy has overtaken “law and order” as the #1 issue. Trump has been able to pivot from “a” strong point to his strongest suit, economic growth. Goldman Sachs, for example, has raised its third-quarter GDP estimate from 30% to a stunning 35%. Most likely, Team Trump knows that the figures are at least this good and possibly better.
[End]
This hyper-focus on the China Virus, Schweikart argues, has left most Democrat voters (who are already prone to fright by nature) all a-skeered of voting in person. This has in turn left the Biden/Harris Harris/Biden ticket and down-ballot Democrats in several key states overly-dependent in the Vote By Mail (VBM) turnout. Indeed, as Larry points out, the Democrats have decided to rely so heavily on their VBM/China Virus fright strategy that they decided to completely eschew the traditional get-out-the-vote operations on the grounds that going door-to-door is just too darn dangerous.
After all, it’s a whole lot harder to convince people to be frightened of voting in person if they see Democrat campaign workers roaming their neighborhood every day, right? Right.
Schweikart believes this particular Democrat bubble is about to burst, and uses an analysis of North Carolina data as a case study.
From the UncoverDC piece:
A new analysis of North Carolina VBM by poster “byecomey” from FreeRepublic entitled “Joe is Done” should terrify Democrats who may be counting on VBM to bail out Sleepy Joe. As byecomey shows, in 2016 the Democrats were outvoted by Republicans in NC VBM (40% to 31%), but this year Democrats expect to have a 51% to 16.9% edge. As byecomey says, “This is actually bad news for Joe.” According to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, while 47% of Biden supporters plan to vote by mail, some 66% of Republicans say they will vote on election day. The number of Democrats planning to vote by mail in battleground states rises to 57%, largely because they believe voting in person is a “health risk.” After all, that’s what their pals in the media have told them.
When byecomey applies this turnout to VBM statistics, he found that in 2016, the Democrat turnout was 1.872 million, who voted at an estimated 50% rate. For Democrats to match 2016 levels (remember, they lost North Carolina by over 2 points) they would need 936,000 VBM ballots. Republicans, of whom 1.571 million voted in 2016 with an estimated 18% VBM share would need 282,900 VBM ballots to match 2016 levels.
Here’s where it gets interesting. Currently Democrats are on track for . . . 762,000 (under-performing by 174,000) while Republicans are voting at a rate of 288,630, or over-performing their 2016 pace by almost 6,000. Independents are over-performing their 2016 pace even more strongly, at 82,000 over 2016 levels. Want to know the even better news? Byecomey used the more pessimistic estimates for turnout of both sides. In other words, Democrats may fall short of their 2016 pace even worse, and Republicans may do even better.
[End]
Oh. Oh, my. Oh, my, my, my.
Combine all of theses factors with the facts that a) Democrats have failed to successfully force mass VBM in several key swing states, b) Democrat governors refusing to allow colleges to re-open will deny their Party its traditional edge on college campuses and depress the college-age vote significantly, and c) the GOP has racked up big voter registration margins in states like Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania, and you have the Biden/Harris Harris/Biden bubble getting ready to suffer a Hindenberg-like catastrophe.
Hindenburg GIFs | Tenor
Are the Democrats panicking? You bet they are. And they should be.
That is all.
Looked at now with just a little bit of distance, it’s easy to speculate that a Democrat pandemic strategy may have kept masked, law-abiding Americans locked down in fear while allowing rioters — conveniently masked to hide their identities — free-reign on city streets. At the same time, such a strategy would also have offered the obviously-impaired Joe Biden a ready excuse to stay in his basement rather than be out on the campaign trail.
That last part of the scenario freaks me out a little because more and more we see daily how the left will do seemingly ANYTHING to grab power. Is it now beyond the realm of possibility that some evil little shifty-eyed strategist in the Dem bunker looked up one day this past Spring and said, “We know Joe’s too ill to leave his house right now. If people find that out, we’re dead in the water ... So how about we arrange it so EVERYBODY can’t leave their house right now?”
Bonus! The pandemic strategy tanked an incredibly robust economy heading into the Presidential election. Just so handy, like the “housing crisis” that helped Old Joe’s boss back in the 2008 election.
It really is astonishingly convenient how things like this somehow always seem to work out in the Democrats’ favor. You might even think they planned them this way.
When I do, I see an amazing dude that doesn't post four self-serving blogs a day.
You are a FreeRepublic treasure. Our own crazy uncle, who we made to eat in the garage for Thanksgiving years ago. I am so glad that the rumors of your demise were bogus. May you continue to run off anyone who has a substantive contribution to the discussion. I take that back, I wish you would stop doing that. Be well.
All the anti-Trump books came out too early too. Everyone picked September as a release time to let people have time before election day to buy them and read them. We will have fewer dramatic revelations to monopolize the news come October.
Very, VERY INTERESTING!!!
Now if we could just bring back the Official Friday Silliness Thread!
Never a doubt in my mind that IF/WHEN a vaccine was “ready” (and of course, no vaccine is ready without years’ of trials), the Ds would do an about face to block it.
Gotta have that fear.
Yeah, everybody’s been wondering where you were?
I, too am glad to see that you are well.
In DB’s defense, he posted his entire blog...which he started doing at your “suggestion” some time ago. I’d take that as a win my good man.
Blackmon regularly gets posted here.
What’s the BFD?
PS: you get that orange Plymouth, Dodge or whatever the he** it is?
Cynics may say that Dave Blackmon lives in your head rent free. Some may even view your obsession with Dave as evidence that you need to get a life. But not me. I think it’s good that you’re focusing on important problems in the world, like Dave posting too much on Free Republic.
“Are the American people smart enough,wise enough,and well informed enough to understand that China and Rat Party Governors are responsible for this train wreck?“
I think so. At least here in southeastern PA, Democrat Governor Wolf is getting blamed - the shutdowns are all anyone talks about.
A couple months ago, the anti-shutdown folks were in the minority and got treated like conspiracy nuts. The politically correct thing to say was that the government was keeping us safe from this deadly virus.
The mask-wearers kind of had the upper hand - claiming science was on their side and anyone who doesn’t comply is literally killing people.
But in the last month something has changed - I think people have had enough and they are pissed off.
The Governors are even getting sued in several Democrat states. I know a couple bar restaurant owners who have sent letters to the LCB (liquor control board) questioning the legal standing of the shutdowns. They are saying they won’t comply until the LCB “clarifies“ the legal basis of these orders. Local law enforcement has agreed to wait for a response from the state before enforcing anything. This is open rebellion.
I hear there are similar things happening in others states too.
So do you. All you do is . . .
I am deeply disappointed and truly sorry that you do not
approve of my posts. Your opinion is supremely important
to me. Your input would be greatly appreciated in my efforts
to make my posts more acceptable.
Please submit any suggestions that you may have in order
to make my posts more in line with your expectations.
Thanks in advance for your valuable input.
Yet you respond.
You expected something different?
If you didn't want a response, why post to me?
If you don't want a response, maybe you should just
mutter to yourself or something. Perhaps write notes to yourself.
You obviously have no sense of irony.
Well if the mods want to continue to let people excerpt their blog posts, and if at the same time they want to let humblegunner sneer at it, so what? Another comment noted his inconsistency, as he formerly attacked those who excerpted blogs, and now opposing "self serving blog posts" though posted complete. Again his angry approbation shows his unadmirable character for few share the belief that this provocation warrants this response, and that he arrogates to himself a position of authority.
Do show me what I am missing. Since the real issue of concern is and ought to be Dimwitcrat strategy going into November, what ought the Eyes of Texas to do better if not this? To him who needs no encouragement from the likes of me, I quote:
“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”Tis sure there were less hostility to gunner were he less hostile,Teddy Roosevelt
I take it sarcasm is not your strong point.
You whine about what a meanie I am for mocking your inane posts, and then, like a trout rising to the fly, take the bait.
You are FR's equivalent of that crappy little Chihuahua in the neighborhood that is always trying to bite joggers' ankles.
Have a biscuit.
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