Posted on 09/16/2020 2:56:16 PM PDT by EyesOfTX
Writing at UncoverDC.com, historian Larry Schweikart has a terrific analysis arguing that the Democrat Party has made a huge miscalculation in its exploitation of the China Virus crisis, a blunder that likely has already cost the Biden/Harris ticket – or is it Harris/Biden? – the election. Schweikart further argues that the blunder will result in Democrat losses up and down the ballot.
Arguing that the Dems overplayed their hands on the China Virus and really rolled out their Soros-funded riot strategy too early in the summer, Schweikart says those mistakes have allowed President Trump to own the “law and order” issue to the point that it has now been displaced in the public’s mind by the economy as the most important election issue.
Excerpt from the UncoverDC piece:
Saturday News Roundup: Adios Tik-Tok, Bye-Bye Bolton Book Advance, and America's Garbage News Media VDO.AI With the COVID-17 China Virus and the riots, I kept thinking “why did they roll this out so early?” Perhaps (or perhaps not) they didn’t have any control over the China Virus and the national, then state, response. But the riots? Those were clearly orchestrated and pre-packaged. The Soros-backed groups could have used those at any time. By rioting so early, it gave Trump a chance to clearly be the only “law and order” candidate—so much so that polling by my friend Richard Baris has shown that by far, now, the economy has overtaken “law and order” as the #1 issue. Trump has been able to pivot from “a” strong point to his strongest suit, economic growth. Goldman Sachs, for example, has raised its third-quarter GDP estimate from 30% to a stunning 35%. Most likely, Team Trump knows that the figures are at least this good and possibly better.
[End]
This hyper-focus on the China Virus, Schweikart argues, has left most Democrat voters (who are already prone to fright by nature) all a-skeered of voting in person. This has in turn left the Biden/Harris Harris/Biden ticket and down-ballot Democrats in several key states overly-dependent in the Vote By Mail (VBM) turnout. Indeed, as Larry points out, the Democrats have decided to rely so heavily on their VBM/China Virus fright strategy that they decided to completely eschew the traditional get-out-the-vote operations on the grounds that going door-to-door is just too darn dangerous.
After all, it’s a whole lot harder to convince people to be frightened of voting in person if they see Democrat campaign workers roaming their neighborhood every day, right? Right.
Schweikart believes this particular Democrat bubble is about to burst, and uses an analysis of North Carolina data as a case study.
From the UncoverDC piece:
A new analysis of North Carolina VBM by poster “byecomey” from FreeRepublic entitled “Joe is Done” should terrify Democrats who may be counting on VBM to bail out Sleepy Joe. As byecomey shows, in 2016 the Democrats were outvoted by Republicans in NC VBM (40% to 31%), but this year Democrats expect to have a 51% to 16.9% edge. As byecomey says, “This is actually bad news for Joe.” According to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, while 47% of Biden supporters plan to vote by mail, some 66% of Republicans say they will vote on election day. The number of Democrats planning to vote by mail in battleground states rises to 57%, largely because they believe voting in person is a “health risk.” After all, that’s what their pals in the media have told them.
When byecomey applies this turnout to VBM statistics, he found that in 2016, the Democrat turnout was 1.872 million, who voted at an estimated 50% rate. For Democrats to match 2016 levels (remember, they lost North Carolina by over 2 points) they would need 936,000 VBM ballots. Republicans, of whom 1.571 million voted in 2016 with an estimated 18% VBM share would need 282,900 VBM ballots to match 2016 levels.
Here’s where it gets interesting. Currently Democrats are on track for . . . 762,000 (under-performing by 174,000) while Republicans are voting at a rate of 288,630, or over-performing their 2016 pace by almost 6,000. Independents are over-performing their 2016 pace even more strongly, at 82,000 over 2016 levels. Want to know the even better news? Byecomey used the more pessimistic estimates for turnout of both sides. In other words, Democrats may fall short of their 2016 pace even worse, and Republicans may do even better.
[End]
Oh. Oh, my. Oh, my, my, my.
Combine all of theses factors with the facts that a) Democrats have failed to successfully force mass VBM in several key swing states, b) Democrat governors refusing to allow colleges to re-open will deny their Party its traditional edge on college campuses and depress the college-age vote significantly, and c) the GOP has racked up big voter registration margins in states like Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania, and you have the Biden/Harris Harris/Biden bubble getting ready to suffer a Hindenberg-like catastrophe.
Hindenburg GIFs | Tenor
Are the Democrats panicking? You bet they are. And they should be.
That is all.
Your fourth blog post today.
https://www.freerepublic.com/tag/by:eyesoftx/index?tab=comments;brevity=full;options=no-change
I guess you had to get some Schweikart smooching in under the wire.
You need a job, dude.
Ping.
Haven’t seen you post in a while. Good to see you Gunner.
You realize that's a tacit admission that they created and loosed the virus in the first place.
Not sure that's a good idea to share with the world...
I'm pleased to be here!
Separate Topic:
Friend of mine in Texas pointed out something interesting: DJT won in 2016 even though he had Gary Johnson on his back. Hillary had Jill Stein, but she didn’t siphon off near the votes that Johnson did.
Makes 2016 an even more improbable win.
This forum, and the world, is better because you are in it. I was worried you may have been ill or something.
Cth on Biden/Harris
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/09/16/the-background-of-the-harris-biden-ticket/#more-199774
I’ve been predicting this for a while. It became obvious once you saw Democrats trying to claim that the vaccines are untested and dangerous. Normally they’d be all for it, but they came to realize that the timing works out terribly for them. They spent months hyping up COVID-19 as an existential threat to the United States and humanity. Now, after months of doing everything possible to help move the best vaccine candidates through the testing process, President Trump stands ready to announce a safe and effective vaccine. When he does, he’ll be seen as a hero to Americans living through this nightmare. Oops.
Worse, with a vaccine becoming available, Americans’ attention will turn back to the economy. And who do they trust more to shepherd the economy back to health? Slow Biden? Or President Trump?
So yes, the Democrats will now make every effort to slow or block any vaccines from approval. They’ll spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt about them. Anything to try and save their failing narrative about President Trump botching the response. The only thing that could make this any worse is the announcement of Federal investigations into Democrat governors forcing nursing homes to accept infected people, which cost thousands of lives.
Oh hell no.
Just busy and disconnected.
Add to the colleges being closed, the nursing homes are also off limits to Dems going in and gathering “votes”.
You again. For the record, LS contributes far more to this forum than you do.
As does EyesofTX.
I’m just wondering what fresh hell they are going to foist off on us in September, and if there an entry for it on my 2020 Bingo card!
I didn't know it was a contest.
Also, I'm flattered to learn that you would like me to contribute more.
Make that October
bkmk
Look in your mirror buddy.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.