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What the Coronavirus Curve Teaches Us About Climate Change
Politico ^ | 3-26-2020 | Howard Kunreuther and Paul Slovic

Posted on 03/31/2020 5:50:25 AM PDT by Sir Napsalot

Humans don’t easily grasp the concept of exponential growth, but it’s exactly why coronavirus has gotten so hard to manage—and why climate change could too. The coronavirus pandemic—sadly—has introduced or reintroduced many people to the concept of an exponential curve, in which a quantity grows at an increasing rate over time, as the number of people contracting the virus currently is doing. It is this curve that so many of us are trying to “flatten” through social distancing and other mitigating measures, small and large.

(snip)

It’s also how climate change works. And if there’s any silver lining in this mess, it’s that the coronavirus pandemic is teaching us a valuable lesson about the perils of ignoring destructive processes—and perhaps even larger, longer-term disasters—that increase exponentially.

(snip) (Authors' CO2 "exponential" growth)

(snip)

Taking a lesson from our flat-footed response to the coronavirus pandemic, we can no longer delay aggressive actions to halt and reverse what otherwise will be inevitable pandemic-like crises arising from climate change. Already, tipping points have been reached: Human populations and cultures are being devastated, and many species are becoming extinct.

(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...


TOPICS: Science
KEYWORDS:
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(Sorry, I can't get the height and width for either image to shrink down)

Look at the Y-scale of the CO2 graph. THAT IS NOT an exponential growth.

THIS iS PURE FEARMONGERING from very dishonest authors.

1 posted on 03/31/2020 5:50:25 AM PDT by Sir Napsalot
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To: Sir Napsalot

The WARMER the BETTER!!!


2 posted on 03/31/2020 5:51:01 AM PDT by Ann Archy (Abortion....... The HUMAN Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: Sir Napsalot

I’m looking at that graph and it’s so “perfect” it’s clearly fake. No way data presents itself quite like that.


3 posted on 03/31/2020 5:52:26 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (If White Privilege is real, why did Elizabeth Warren lie about being an Indian?)
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To: Sir Napsalot
BINGO! You got the money shot!

It’s also how climate change works. And if there’s any silver lining in this mess, it’s that the coronavirus pandemic is teaching us a valuable lesson about the perils of ignoring destructive processes—and perhaps even larger, longer-term disasters—that increase exponentially.

4 posted on 03/31/2020 5:53:50 AM PDT by SanchoP (Secede!)
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To: ClearCase_guy

The data looks reasonable to me.

All it measures is the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

It as very little to do with the average temperature of the earth.


5 posted on 03/31/2020 5:55:50 AM PDT by marktwain (President Trump and his supporters are the Resistance. His opponents are the Reactionaries.)
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To: Sir Napsalot

What does my cat’s tail wagging tell me about climate change? Nothing.


6 posted on 03/31/2020 5:56:19 AM PDT by I want the USA back (The US media is the most destructive, mendacious irresponsible institution that there is.)
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To: Sir Napsalot

(Author bio)
Howard Kunreuther is co-director of the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the University of Pennsylvania. He is co-author, with Robert Meyer, of The Ostrich Paradox: Why We Underprepare for Disasters.

Paul Slovic is president of Decision Research and professor of psychology at the University of Oregon. He is the author of The Perception of Risk. (end excerpt)

Risk management from UPenn’s Wharton business school should have a ROI analysis at the very least, no?

And what would the return on drastic climate change investment these authors want to impose?


7 posted on 03/31/2020 5:56:26 AM PDT by Sir Napsalot (Pravda + Useful Idiots = USSR; Journ0List + Useful Idiots = DopeyChangey)
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To: I want the USA back

Are you kidding?

That’s how I decide whether I need an umbrella or not that day.


8 posted on 03/31/2020 5:59:22 AM PDT by dp0622 (Radicals, racists dont point fingers at me I'm a small town white boy Just tryin to make ends meet)
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To: SanchoP

>>> ...the coronavirus pandemic is teaching us a valuable lesson about the perils of ignoring destructive processes ...

Instead of “climate change” as their example of destructive processes,

we could use their argument to describe unchecked illegals invading this country.

I bet The Left won’t like it. Not one bit.


9 posted on 03/31/2020 6:00:35 AM PDT by Sir Napsalot (Pravda + Useful Idiots = USSR; Journ0List + Useful Idiots = DopeyChangey)
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To: Sir Napsalot
(Sorry, I can't get the height and width for either image to shrink down)

Using HTML 'img', between the 'img' and the 'src=', insert 'width=350'. Use preview, and adjust the value accordingly. 350 seems to be a good number generally to start with.


10 posted on 03/31/2020 6:03:59 AM PDT by C210N
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To: Sir Napsalot
As I've written before, the 'it's exponential, bro' idiots are winning the war.

It's not exponential: it's logistic. Every biological process doesn't run in nature a-la the lily pads overtaking the pond. There are always natural brakes - and artificial ones- on future growth. It happened with SARS, and it'll happen here.


11 posted on 03/31/2020 6:06:18 AM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: Sir Napsalot
It’s also how climate change works. And if there’s any silver lining in this mess, it’s that the coronavirus pandemic is teaching us a valuable lesson about the perils of ignoring destructive processes—and perhaps even larger, longer-term disasters—that increase exponentially.

Sorry, dude, it's not even comparable. The premise that carbon dioxide can somehow trap huge amounts of heat in the atmosphere due to its wide fluorescent band in the infrared is fundamentally flawed, due to the principle of conservation of energy. And it already has been shown that carbon dioxide concentration increases with warmer temperatures. Finally, the more carbon dioxide there is, the more biomass the planet can support.

12 posted on 03/31/2020 6:07:06 AM PDT by exDemMom (Current visual of the hole the US continues to dig itself into: http://www.usdebtclock.org)
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To: ClearCase_guy

They adjust the data points as the wind blows low CO2 air from the nearby forests.


13 posted on 03/31/2020 6:07:15 AM PDT by Paladin2
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If climate change depends on us to alter our behavior enjoy the ride...this is all bs...everything is always tied back to climate change and tds..


14 posted on 03/31/2020 6:08:30 AM PDT by TnTnTn
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To: I want the USA back
”What does my cat’s tail wagging tell me about climate change? Nothing.”

That’s because you fail to grasp the concept of exponential growth. And cat tails... or something.
15 posted on 03/31/2020 6:08:45 AM PDT by LIConFem (I will no longer accept the things I cannot change. it's time to change the things I cannot accept)
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To: Sir Napsalot

Go to CDC.gov and search for “Climate change”. Then Transgender. Then Diversity. Look at the number of hits you get. Gain some understanding why the CDC and the national health establishment was so ill-prepared for a pandemic, which is a primary reason for them to exist. Those other things? Not so much in my mind. Pure SJW political pandering and electioneering using the public’s money.


16 posted on 03/31/2020 6:10:02 AM PDT by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
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To: Sir Napsalot

You could plug almost anything in. It’s a political strategy that produces a media event to scare the sheeple.


17 posted on 03/31/2020 6:10:09 AM PDT by SanchoP (Secede!)
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To: DoodleBob

The end except....It won’t take too many existing “light” cases (no symptoms-carriers) to start this growing again once we’re all out and about.


18 posted on 03/31/2020 6:12:04 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: marktwain
The data looks reasonable to me.

It looks to me like they have absolutely perfect linear increase in CO2 over a 60 year period. That could happen. But I would expect something with a few more dips and spikes (volcanic activity and whatnot). Also, the red squiggles I assume are specific data points that trace out the basic line of linear growth. The red squiggles that are just a hair above the line and just a hair below the line, year after year after year. That also seems a bit perfect and surprising.

Look at the graph in comment 11. Completely different data set, of course, but the little red marks for new cases go up and down fairly substantially. Taken as a whole, sure, they trace out a decent line. But you can see variability, which si what you would expect to see. But the Mauna Loa data on CO2 shows no variability at all. They are clearly adjusting their data. Because they have a story they want to tell. That's not science.

19 posted on 03/31/2020 6:13:14 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (If White Privilege is real, why did Elizabeth Warren lie about being an Indian?)
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To: Sir Napsalot

Global Warming?! Slowly I turn...step by step...inch by inch...exponentially...

STFU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


20 posted on 03/31/2020 6:14:19 AM PDT by Eleutheria5 ("SHUT UP!" he explained.)
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