1,864 COVID-19 Cases and 43 Deaths In US So Far, And We Have 222,000 Flu Cases and 22,000 Flu Deaths In US This Season

Conservative US ^ | 03.13.2020 | Natalie D.

[USA Conservative]

President Donald Trump declared a national emergency on Friday, the most significant move yet by the U.S. government to head off the coronavirus outbreak.

Trump’s declaration came as many public and private institutions have taken action — including canceling major events, temporarily banning large gatherings, closing schools and telling people to work from home — in an effort to slow the spread of the virus.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled, soared, and then closed with a gain of 1,900 points after the emergency declaration. Wall Street had reeled Thursday afternoon after coronavirus fears drove the markets to their worst day since the Black Monday crash in 1987.

The United States as of Friday afternoon had 1864 confirmed or presumptive cases of the coronavirus, and the death toll climbed to 41.

Colorado announced its first coronavirus death on Friday, bringing the national death toll to 43. The current mortality rate in the US is 2.2%.

But everyone seems to forget that the fly took more lives, a lot more to be precise.

While health officials in the United States wait to see just how bad a public health challenge COVID-19 will pose, they still have to deal with an all-too-familiar challenge: flu.

It’s been a bad flu season. Not the worst ever, but bad.

“It started very early this year,” says Emily Martin, associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan School of Public Health. She works with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collecting statistics about flu.

This year’s flu season started picking up steam around Thanksgiving.

The CDC doesn’t test everyone who has flu symptoms to be certain they really have flu, rather than some other viral infection. Still, the CDC estimates are reckoned to be pretty accurate, and they are updated regularly.

There have been 222,000 confirmed flu cases in the US this season. And there have been 22,000 flu deaths this flu season.

There were 144 children who died from the flu this season.

This chart comes from the CDC. It shows weekly flu numbers and seasonal flu numbers.

This morning Dr. Anthony Fauci was on Fox and said that 80% of the people who get Corona will suffer little to no symptoms and return to good health rather quickly. The remaining 20% are generally older people or people with underlying health problems.

The problem becomes when the -Rate- of people being affected with serious (like bilateral pneumonia) conditions Exceeds the capacity of US hospitals to deal with it.

If that happens, the deaths skyrocket. So the Rate needs to be slowed down.

It’s, essentially, a lab-made common cold (with an HIVspike protein added on) that no one has ever had before. Across 3 large waves, nearly 6 billion people will catch this. Most will be just fine, But, they can go around wrecking the weak and old without realizing it.

So, by Slowing the Rate of infections, the number of serious (potentially fatal) cases, at any particular moment, becomes lowered .. potentially by as much as 95%.

Calm down people we gonna be just fine.

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[crusty old prospector]

Preach it, bro.

[crusty old prospector]

Ha ha. Out with the old, in with the brave new world.

[McGruff]

But, but, but.

[McGruff]

Leading Causes of Death

Data are for the U.S.
Number of deaths for leading causes of death

Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Source: Deaths: Leading Causes for 2017, table 1 pdf icon[PDF- 2 MB]

[ronnie raygun]

The administration is acting on another hoax just in case its not

[riri]

And it's looking like you can be reinfected.

Massively more contagious. A kid got it from one of the NBA players while getting his autograph. Let that sink in,

[lodi90]

I certainly do have an idea. It’s far more contagious and problematic in mortality than influenza.

That’s well established.

---

Not really. It’s been floating around the US for months and healthy young people are not keeling over in the streets.

[lodi90]

It’s just arrived at our shores, Buckle up!

---

No, it arrived months ago.

[the OlLine Rebel]

Colorado announced its first coronavirus death on Friday, bringing the national death toll to 43. The current mortality rate in the US is 2.2%.

There have been 222,000 confirmed flu cases in the US this season. And there have been 22,000 flu deaths this flu season. “

10% flu death rate???? Better check that again. Probably many more than 222k cases.

As for the death rate in the US - let’s subract WA (in fact, the nursing home that skewed everything).

Per JH site as of now, US death rate minus WA stats is LESS THAN 1%.

[lodi90]

Good info but I think daily totals are a better comparison since the Wu Flu mania afflicted types are breathlessly reporting every fatality from this new bug.

[romanesq]

Young and youth do great. In Italy hundreds died again today.

Many are in their 40s.

[DoodleBob]

It could be both. It's also a function of the natural progression that this sort of thing follows. Let's go to the video tape: SARS.

You'll notice that early on, the rate of growth is quite high. And then, the growth rate tails off and it eventually stops.

The daily rate of growth in confirmed cases in the US has averaged 43% for all of March; it was 11% prior to March. If I consider this chart and project the US confirmed cases as a function of today's count and the rate of growth in Hubei (if you believe their data) from the end of January (which is similar to the US growth rate today), it's likely the US could see 40.5k confirmed cases in one month (April 13)...but then it'd peter out.

Now, 40.5k cases out of 329MM people isn't bad - it is 0.012% of the nation. It is a LARGE number, to be sure, but it is smaller than the entire 67,786 case count for Hubei.

Now, certainly you'd expect with the entire nation being in lockdown, people obsessively washing hands and elbow bumping, and shifting their entertainment from bar hopping to Netflix streaming, it is possible the 40.5k count may be lower.

But at a minimum, this analysis suggests it's going to get worse...but then level off. And then in 9 months, we'll have a CoronaBaby boom!

[PGalt]

2020 See Clearly-Think F.A.S.T.- FOOD-AMMO-SHELTER (preferably remote)-TODAY

see something, say something. KZOO Mich- Costco lines around the building. Lots of empty shelves. (h/t good friend Kris W)

Thanks.

[trebb]

And there’s been over 22 MILLION Flu cases so far...over 1,000 times the cases of The Great Dem Hope Virus”...that many here seem to be rooting for so their panic doesn’t look so silly...

[mdmathis6]

It’s particularly deadly to elderly 60 and over and many who are reacting in a “panicked state” are in that age range or who have family members who are in that range who they want to protect...

Memes are already being floated about the Corona virus being a “Boomer Remover”!

It’s easy for some to say “just relax”...but look at it from a late 50 something something’s point of view. Still, I’m sleeping okay and not too worried. Just going to take a few extra precautions and pray for the best.

[mdmathis6]

Actually you have to look at the mortality rates from Resolved cases not just confirmed cases as some who have the flu now are still recovering from it. Many more have had the flu and have gotten better without confirmation. The need to be hospitalized for the flu vs the mortalities that occur during the course of hospitalization for the flu tell a real story.

Over all mortality rate is 1-2 per cent but I don’t doubt the 10 per cent mortality rate for those who end up needing to be hospitalized.

[Chickensoup]

Convenient that this illness has features that fit the leftist ideals

kills the elderly

shuts down the country and tanks the economy

keeps people apart at the time that we have been coming together with Donald trmp

[AppyPappy]

222,000

This number sounds way too small

[Jim Noble]

Here’s the issue in a nutshell:

It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.

But if you run a health system, you have to do it anyway. And the data is looking worse and worse.

First, “Oh, yeah, in China they all smoke, they spit on the sidewalk, and they eat cats, so we’re good”.

Then, “On the ship, the air recirculates, how stupid was it to leave 3000 people on the ship. so we’re good and they’re trying to hurt Trump”.

Then, “Oh so it’s Iran? Good! Besides, they worship a pedophile and lick monuments, so we’re good and they want to elect Biden”.

Then, “Italy? They’re all old and kissing each other all the time, so we’re good”.

Now, “Explosive in France, Germany, Denmark, and Spain? It’s the socialized medicine, so we’re good, sucks to be Bernie Sanders”.

And, day by day, the number of unlinked cases in the US grows. The health system of Washington State is under severe stress (”They have a statue of Lenin in Seattle, so we’re good).

Yes, the US is a continental state. Lots of people live far, far away from each other. Social distancing in Wyoming is not a problem. So the exponential ramping up we are now seeing in Europe will nt affect yo Mama in East Bumfuck.

But we do have lots of population centers where transmission is happening right now. There are probably 14-21 days from first transmissions in any given population center to disaster. In Denmark, they don’t serve bat soup as far as I know.

The Boston Globe ran a headline yesterday “Efforts to control coronavirus could get even more extreme”. EVEN...MORE...EXTREME

More extreme than what? Than doing nothing?

It is still possible to substantially modify the outcomes in the US, but time is slipping away. This government has done as much as any government subordinate to idiots voting could do, but it is not enough.

And to answer all who have posted how much I like to panic, how I’m hurting Trump, how I’m trying to crash people’s 401k plans and the rest - I will be delighted if I’m wrong. But that’s not the way to bet.

[AppyPappy]

If the Corona numbers extrapolate out, it will kill about 8% of people over 65 that get infected. 59,000,000 people got Swine Flu in 2009. If we get those numbers and 10% are over 65, that means 480,000 people could die.

We are in the Spanish Flu scenario. A weaker case in the Spring followed by a killer in the Fall.