Posted on 02/22/2020 5:32:56 AM PST by EyesOfTX
He never should’ve agreed to participate in that Las Vegas debate. – One of the best ways to gauge the state of a multi-candidate presidential nominating race is to follow the betting odds. The polling business in the United States has become too corrupt now to really trust, other than to use aggregates of polls over time to assess trends.
Another problem with the polls is that so many people – like yours truly – simply lie to pollsters about who they really support. Some do it due to social stigma about supporting specific candidates; others, like me, do it because they just basically detest polling operations and the way so many have allowed themselves to become tools of corrupt media organizations. I personally haven’t spoken the truth to any pollster since Rush Limbaugh implemented “Operation Chaos” during the 2008 Democratic primary race between Obama and the Pantsuit Princess.
But the betting odds are a different animal entirely. These odds aren’t calculated just from average people telling their opinions to some stranger on the telephone; to the contrary, these are calculated from people putting their money where their mouths are. Few, if any bettors are going to slap down a hundred bucks on some candidate they believe to be a looooser just to distort the results tabulated by RealClearPolitics.
Right? Right.
Using the RCP aggregate of betting odds as a primary gauge, the disastrous debate showing by Mr. Excitement, Mike Bloomberg, last Wednesday is going to have a major negative impact on his polling numbers and, by extension, on his ability to accumulate votes and maybe even win a state or two in the March 3 Super Tuesday primaries.
Just nine days ago, The Commie held a shaky 5-point lead over Mini-Mike in this important gauge of public sentiment, with Sanders pulling in 39% of the money being bet and Mr. Excitement 34%. That Commie lead began to expand, though, as video after video began to surface of Mini-Mike making horrific public statements offending all manner of traditional Democrat interest groups. By the time debate day came around, the Sanders lead had grown to 17 points.
In the three days since Bloomberg’s Vegas Waterloo, the bottom has dropped out. The Commie’s support has jumped up over 50% for the first time, while Mr. Excitement has crashed down to 22%. It is very likely that that near-30% gap between the two will only expand after Sanders scores what is going to be a big winning margin in the Nevada caucuses.
Before that debate took place, Mini-Mike had actually moved into slight polling leads in both Oklahoma and Arkansas, and was becoming competitive in a couple of the other Super Tuesday states, based solely on the strength of $300 million spent on TV and social media ads. In polling released over the next 7-10 days, we will likely see those leads go poof!, as the impacts of his debate catastrophe begin to show up in the polling data.
I told you on the morning of the debate that there was no possible benefit for Bloomberg to appear in that debate: He wasn’t even on the ballot in Nevada – why take the risk of having exactly the horrific debate performance he in fact had? And there was no way this near-terminally boring old man who hadn’t participated in a debate setting in a dozen years was going to have a good night against a pack of desperate animals who have been doing nothing but debating and running their mouths for almost a damn year now.
Mr. Excitement is also not on the ballot in South Carolina, yet he has agreed to participate in this coming week’s Democrat debate in that state. Why? Well, now he pretty much has no choice, does he? Given that the South Carolina primary comes just 3 days before Super Tuesday, Tuesday night’s debate in Charleston will literally be Mini-Mike’s last gasp chance to stage a recovery from his massive failure in Vegas.
You have to believe he will have a better performance in Charleston than he did last Wednesday, just due to practice. In fact, he really did better in the second hour of his first debate, as he seemed to sort of gain his tiny footing on-stage and at least begin to fight back at his tormentors. Plus, he will have had 6 additional days to try to buy some of the other candidates, along with the moderators, off, which is his normal modus operandi. Any success in that realm would also be helpful.
But here’s the thing: This last desperate chance scenario did not need to happen. Mr. Excitement could have easily justified sitting out these two debates due to the fact of his absence from the ballots in those states. He could have stayed on the sidelines and relied on his massive wealth to buy enough Super Tuesday votes to get a couple of wins and a strong enough showing overall to impede Sanders’ quest to become the nominee.
But my view is that it is now too late for Bloomberg to recover from his blunder: Sanders’ coming big win in Nevada is going to lend his campaign an air of inevitability, one that will most likely lead to a narrow win in next Saturday’s South Carolina primary. At that point, the race to see who can accumulate the most delegates heading into July’s convention in Milwaukee will be over, and, if Biden and Warren drop their campaigns after March 3 as I believe they will, The Commie would even have a fighting chance of winning enough delegates over the next few months to prevail on a first ballot at that convention.
In the end, what we see here is that the Waterloo analogy is incredibly apt: Mr. Excitement’s decision to participate in the Las Vegas debate was a fatal strategic blunder committed by a little man consumed with unbridled hubris.
History repeats.
That is all.
Good points. The 20 million is supposedly a record. The previous debate had somewhere around 8 million viewers.
LOL. Lindell’s ad budget might amount to $30 million in a year. Bloomberg spent a quarter of a BILLION in JANUARY.
Try again.
I’m headed there in 10 days. Can’t wait.
It was 31 million across the three networks: NBC, MSNBC and Univision.
Yes while Bloomberg became a butt wipe 100% in the Dem Debate Trump scored a massive successful rally in Las Vegas inside and outside and tens of thousands of devoted Trumpies turned out to support their beloved POTUS, Donald J. Trump!!! And....coming up folks another two great Campaign rallies in, North Charleston, South Carolina & Charlotte, North Carolina!!!
The South Carolina rally will be held on Friday, February 28, 2020 (Limit 14,000 people) & the Charlotte, NC rally will be held on March 2, 2020 (Limit, 10,000 people)
Details, Free Tickets (2), more Information, Please Contact: www.donaldjtrump.com
(HAT TIP AMERICAN THINKER)
A YouTube video of Bloomberg speaking at Oxford Dec 2016 reveals much about Bloomberg’s beliefs and thinking:
<><> He is dismissive of the working class,
<><> he sees the average guy as an ignoramus,
<><> the working class are unintelligent, unable to find useful work in the technological age.
Bloomberg considers himself the crown prince....a member of an intellectual elite.
Those working class types he deplores are paying close attention.
They quickly grasp his real opinion of them and they are unlikely to vote for someone
who sees them as pathetic serfs in need of the noble guidance and patronage from know-it-all Bloomberg.
Will you please explain why would Biden do this? Campaigning is a lot of work. He's old, and he's already wealthy enough to simply retire.
This doesn’t make sense - what’s the end game? Please don’t say, “Hillary will swoop in and save the day!”
Post/thread BUMP!
Bourgeois socialist/totalitarian. Is there room in the Clown Car for little mikey or is he a hood ornament? The way he was beat up in the last debate (and since) they might have to rent the Hillary hearse in the future.
I was staying at Bally’s right next to Paris in Vegas when the clowns and fawning press were arriving. My sis was sure she saw the Bern getting out of one of the bp limos. There were flyers in our room to be prepared for unannounced inspections of our rooms, our luggage, our cars. SS agents were everywhere. We checked out before the actual event.
His wife and handlers talked him into running. She wants to be FLOTUS.
His wife and handlers talked him into running. She wants to be FLOTUS."
Sure, but how does that make him a "placeholder" who has agreed to lose?
It could also be his Pearl Harbor and he will rally resources and come back from this. I wouldn’t write him off too quickly because Sanders is not a candidate with wide appeal among democrats. It is still up for grabs.
I doubt he was planning on being a placeholder when he began the campaign. He has to know he is one by now...
On a side note, Bloomberg’s massive ego had to have taken a hit....
which is just delightful.
He has morons working for him.
Rush talked about this the other day. He said Bloomberg was likely surrounded by yes men...
Sure, but how does that make him a “placeholder” who has agreed to lose?
—
Have you not been paying attention?
Early on before he entered the race he was acting like he was not interested. He of all people knows the truth about his son and Ukraine. Getting into the race exposes him and his family to legal troubles (as we have seen).
But his arm was twisted and he entered the race. He is barely able to run two sentences together. There is the whole touchy feeling thing with young girls. He appears to be confused at times. In other words he is showing his age.
It was only the media and fake poll that kept him at number 1. That bit of smoke and mirror failed after the first caucus (and the chaos was caused when the DNC tried to rig the results).
So Biden is no longer useful to the DNC and he will be tossed under the bus.
That is why I say he was just a place holder.
His role was to keep anyone else from gaining traction. Now that he is out the DNC had to find someone else, in comes Bloomberg (no better campaigner then Biden was).
Yes, I have. I asked an honest question. There's no reason to be rude, FRiend.
I think Biden's running because he thinks he can win. I don't believe he's in on some secret grand plan for him to run and drop out. Why would he do that? (My original question.)
The DNC needs money desperately. Biden wasn't the answer to that. Bernie, being a communist, won't share. So Mini-Mike is the answer. I don't think he can buy the Presidency, but I'm pretty sure he can buy the DNC. The Clintons bankrolled them last time.
“Anyone who counts Bloomberg out at this point is delusional.”
you don’t have to be delusional to see that the numbers are not favorable to mini-mike at this time:
Assuming a contested convention takes place (best case scenario for mini-mike), on second and subsequent ballots at the 2020 Dem convention, it takes a minimum of 2,376 delegate votes to win a majority. There are only 775 unpledged (super) delegates, so even if mini-mike secures all 775 super-delegate votes (very unlikely), he still needs to win a minimum of 1,601 pledged delegates during the primaries/caucuses elections, meaning that mini-mike would need to win at least 41% of the total 3,979 pledged delegates available to be won during the primary/caucus elections ...
making that feat even more difficult, a candidate wins zero pledged delegates during any given state primary/caucus if they don’t win at least 15% of the total votes cast by the electorate in that state, and the current polls are showing mini-mike is barely meeting that threshold in most states, and these are polls taken BEFORE mini-mike’s disastrous debate performance, though the betting sites odds dropped precipitously overnight, an indication that upcoming polls probably won’t be good for bloomberg.
personally, at this point, i think mini-mike’s chances of being the Dem nominee are close to zero ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
I think Biden’s running because he thinks he can win.
My bet there will be a brokered convention and none of the names currently in the race will win.
So...Where do people’s votes go?
Biden voters: Yeah, they’re going to flock to Sanders..., majority to Bloomberg
Buttigieg voters: Probably even Sanders/Bloomberg split
Warren voters: Majority will go to Bloomberg
Klobucher: Majority going to Bloomberg
I wouldn’t count Bloomberg out right now. He’s bought too many of those who will be counting and casting the ballots at the convention.
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