Posted on 02/22/2020 5:32:56 AM PST by EyesOfTX
He never should’ve agreed to participate in that Las Vegas debate. – One of the best ways to gauge the state of a multi-candidate presidential nominating race is to follow the betting odds. The polling business in the United States has become too corrupt now to really trust, other than to use aggregates of polls over time to assess trends.
Another problem with the polls is that so many people – like yours truly – simply lie to pollsters about who they really support. Some do it due to social stigma about supporting specific candidates; others, like me, do it because they just basically detest polling operations and the way so many have allowed themselves to become tools of corrupt media organizations. I personally haven’t spoken the truth to any pollster since Rush Limbaugh implemented “Operation Chaos” during the 2008 Democratic primary race between Obama and the Pantsuit Princess.
But the betting odds are a different animal entirely. These odds aren’t calculated just from average people telling their opinions to some stranger on the telephone; to the contrary, these are calculated from people putting their money where their mouths are. Few, if any bettors are going to slap down a hundred bucks on some candidate they believe to be a looooser just to distort the results tabulated by RealClearPolitics.
Right? Right.
Using the RCP aggregate of betting odds as a primary gauge, the disastrous debate showing by Mr. Excitement, Mike Bloomberg, last Wednesday is going to have a major negative impact on his polling numbers and, by extension, on his ability to accumulate votes and maybe even win a state or two in the March 3 Super Tuesday primaries.
Just nine days ago, The Commie held a shaky 5-point lead over Mini-Mike in this important gauge of public sentiment, with Sanders pulling in 39% of the money being bet and Mr. Excitement 34%. That Commie lead began to expand, though, as video after video began to surface of Mini-Mike making horrific public statements offending all manner of traditional Democrat interest groups. By the time debate day came around, the Sanders lead had grown to 17 points.
In the three days since Bloomberg’s Vegas Waterloo, the bottom has dropped out. The Commie’s support has jumped up over 50% for the first time, while Mr. Excitement has crashed down to 22%. It is very likely that that near-30% gap between the two will only expand after Sanders scores what is going to be a big winning margin in the Nevada caucuses.
Before that debate took place, Mini-Mike had actually moved into slight polling leads in both Oklahoma and Arkansas, and was becoming competitive in a couple of the other Super Tuesday states, based solely on the strength of $300 million spent on TV and social media ads. In polling released over the next 7-10 days, we will likely see those leads go poof!, as the impacts of his debate catastrophe begin to show up in the polling data.
I told you on the morning of the debate that there was no possible benefit for Bloomberg to appear in that debate: He wasn’t even on the ballot in Nevada – why take the risk of having exactly the horrific debate performance he in fact had? And there was no way this near-terminally boring old man who hadn’t participated in a debate setting in a dozen years was going to have a good night against a pack of desperate animals who have been doing nothing but debating and running their mouths for almost a damn year now.
Mr. Excitement is also not on the ballot in South Carolina, yet he has agreed to participate in this coming week’s Democrat debate in that state. Why? Well, now he pretty much has no choice, does he? Given that the South Carolina primary comes just 3 days before Super Tuesday, Tuesday night’s debate in Charleston will literally be Mini-Mike’s last gasp chance to stage a recovery from his massive failure in Vegas.
You have to believe he will have a better performance in Charleston than he did last Wednesday, just due to practice. In fact, he really did better in the second hour of his first debate, as he seemed to sort of gain his tiny footing on-stage and at least begin to fight back at his tormentors. Plus, he will have had 6 additional days to try to buy some of the other candidates, along with the moderators, off, which is his normal modus operandi. Any success in that realm would also be helpful.
But here’s the thing: This last desperate chance scenario did not need to happen. Mr. Excitement could have easily justified sitting out these two debates due to the fact of his absence from the ballots in those states. He could have stayed on the sidelines and relied on his massive wealth to buy enough Super Tuesday votes to get a couple of wins and a strong enough showing overall to impede Sanders’ quest to become the nominee.
But my view is that it is now too late for Bloomberg to recover from his blunder: Sanders’ coming big win in Nevada is going to lend his campaign an air of inevitability, one that will most likely lead to a narrow win in next Saturday’s South Carolina primary. At that point, the race to see who can accumulate the most delegates heading into July’s convention in Milwaukee will be over, and, if Biden and Warren drop their campaigns after March 3 as I believe they will, The Commie would even have a fighting chance of winning enough delegates over the next few months to prevail on a first ballot at that convention.
In the end, what we see here is that the Waterloo analogy is incredibly apt: Mr. Excitement’s decision to participate in the Las Vegas debate was a fatal strategic blunder committed by a little man consumed with unbridled hubris.
History repeats.
That is all.
You assume Bloomberg is in it to win it.
He is not!
Biden was not in the race to win it either. He was just a place holder. Someone to suck the air out of the campaign and block any of the other candidates from gaining any momentum and getting enough delegates to win on the first ballot.
The goal is a brokered convention where the elite will do a bait and switch.
When Binden was not able to keep it up long enough to Finnish Bloomberg stepped in to become the replacement.
Look how amateurish Bloomberg’s campaign has been. His goal is to keep any of the other candidates from getting enough delegates to win on first ballot.
Bloomberg wants to smear President Trump and so he is going along with this charade.
Some conjectured Bloom's handlers were delinquent----sending him in unprepared.
But I'm betting the arrogant know-it-all Mike shot down any suggestion that he sit it out.
After all, he was so full of gray matter, what could possibly go wrong?
Doomberg has billions to spend. He’s not going anywhere.
Napoleon Bonaparte II.
Wow, I don’t know how many ways I can disagree with this...
Those betting on the results tend to be impassioned and informed about their choices; it’s great for overall trends, but even a crash downward means little (especially since so many votes have already been cast in those Super Tuesday primaries; California’s been voting for weeks via absentee ballots.)
The conclusions drawn are premature. Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar need SUCH a huge cash infusion to move forward against Biden & Bloomberg’s warchest and Bernie’s repeated supporters. Bloomberg’s going to have an okay SuperTuesday; much will be made about how he fizzled, but unlike the top three listed, he has the money to keep going. Bernie will go until he falls over and dies, or the convention takes place. Biden’s on life support, but that can be lived with if he’s in the top three come Super Tuesday.
Anyone who counts Bloomberg out at this point is delusional.
I didn’t say he was “going anywhere.” I’m just telling you that he’s wasting his money at this point.
IMO, Bloomie will buy his was into a Brokered Convention. With $60B he can grease a lot of palms.
it's no wonder that none of them have the slightest concern with perpetual trillion dollar deficits and the inevitability of a financial crisis. None of them will be around to see it.
Nonsense. When you have $50 billion, Waterloo is when “you” pull the plug.
Bloomberg is burnt toast!!! Nevada voters...take a good hard look at the last week activities of POTUS, Donald J. Trump, starting with his visit to The NASCAR Daytona 500 Race an d then the three major campaign rallies in Phoenix, Colorado Spring & Las Vegas. in the last five to ten days POTUS, Trump rallies have been attended by more the 1,000,000 Americans Trump supporters. The “overflow Crows” in Las Vegas was bigger then the crowd that filled the Arena inside!!!
You Democrat fools are trekking to your Caucus polling places and casting your votes for the Democrat Party buffoons your party has offered up to you!!! You would be better off and better served if you all wrote-in, Donald J. Trump as your choice for POTUS in 2020!!! The handwriting is on the wall...but.....you good folks are far from the sharpest knives in the drawer!!! SAD!!!
How big is the betting pool and how much would the odds change if someone were to toss in $100 million to bet on himself? Could Mini-Mike suddenly become popular by spending a fraction of his ad budget this way?
Nonsense. When you have $50 billion, Waterloo is when “you” pull the plug.
Like Bloomberg, you overestimate the power of paid advertising to influence voters. At some point, you reach the saturation point and start to cause consumer annoyance, and Mini-Mike is already very close to getting there.
The peril of participating in these nationally-televised debates is that it gives Democrat voters the chance to see that the product being advertised does not match the tiny, arrogant man in real life.
He should have declined to participate. Now it’s too late.
Ask Mike Lindell about that.
Bloomberg may need to change his admen and get a new batch of tv spots, but saturation point is a myth.
You never get another chance to make a first impression.
20 million debate watchers saw what a creepy little inadequate @asshole Bloomberg is.
All the money in the world can’t change that.
Then throw in those stupid revolving
ads mini mike put up in Nevada... Trump likes burnt steak, Trump cheats at golf.... WTH?!
He’s just lighting a match to money.
LOL........good point.
The oldsters are planning funeral arrangements....not a financial crisis.
Spent the last two days at the battleground of Waterloo, lovely place, glad Bloomberg went there.
I’ve seen a couple of his ads on TV here in eastern TN, and they’re pretty spiffy. When he’s scripted, he seems tolerable, but when he opens his mouth, ad lib, he’s a train wreck.
“With $60B he can grease a lot of palms.”
And purchasing a fourth house for Bernie in order to buy him off is chump change to Mini Mike.
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