Why Democrats lose at least eleven Senate elections: Menendez

vanity | July 18, 2018 | By Kevin Collins

[jmaroneps37]

In earlier posts I have made the flat assertion the Republicans, however undeserving they are, will win 11 Democrat Senate seats from the crashing Democrats. I stand by that prediction.

One of the races that will be seen as an upset by a lot of people, will be the Democrats' loss of Bob Menendez's seat in New Jersey. That loss will bring the Democrats' loss total to eleven. He will lose to Republican challenger Bob Hugin.

Those who only read yesterday’s headlines probably laughed at this confident prediction and probably didn’t even “bother” to read the reasoning behind it. That makes no difference; it's going to happen anyway.

My initial reaction to Hugin’s campaign was to note that he was “running” away from President Trump saying, “I’m a different kind of Republican.”

He is. He has conservative credentials – former Marine officer – small business owner – self financed – okay so far but what else?

He is pro- choice and boasts, “I’ll stand up to anyone, even the current occupant of the White House to stand up for New Jersey.” In a state like New Jersey he is hitting all the right notes for a Republican trying to win a statewide election.

Hugin’s first month of campaigning consisted of a steady stream of the same TV spot pounding Menendez for his slithering out of a corruption trial – in Newark of course. Since the spots were on broadcast TV it was easy to see that he meant business, is well financed, and intends to win. All of which sounds very much like the “.. current occupant of the White House.”

After a month, the first poll came out; and its results were as weird as anyone has ever seen. It showed Menendez leading 28 to 24, yes 28 to 24 with 46% undecided. This was a sure tip that Menendez is in trouble.

The guy is running for US Senate from a deep Blue State for the third time. In 2012 running with Barack Obama, Menendez won by 59/40 with Barack Obama winning New Jersey by 58/40. Now he is at 28% with 46% “undecided?”

The second poll in this race was just released and while its results are not weird, they are very scary for Senator Menendez.

A Gravis Poll shows Hugin trailing by just 43/41 with a 4.1 Margin of Error (which means Hugin could be leading already) and 16% “undecided.” This is BIG trouble for a Democrat incumbent in a Blue state in a year that Trump is right across the Hudson River.

Moreover, “A majority of voters–56 percent in total, split 28 percent apiece–say Menendez’s corruption trial is either somewhat or heavily impacting their voting decision.” Everybody in New Jersey knew Menendez would walk from a sham “trial” in his own neighborhood and almost 60% want to right that wrong.

No matter what Menendez says or does he cannot escape numbers like this. What’s more the 9% who say they are “not sure” if Menendez's corruption trial will impact their vote are there for Hugin’s taking. It is likely they do think it is an important factor but they just don’t want to say it out loud.

The importance of this very weak showing cannot be overstated as it relates to National Democrats’ hopes for being able to pick off a few Republican House seats in New Jersey.

This “blood in the water” news will energize New Jersey Republicans as they have not been energized and enthused about voting in many years. Conversely, it is clear that New Jersey Democrats are not enthusiastic about voting for Menendez which will be more trouble in November.

When he gets his visit from the new leader of the Democrat Party, Alexandria Ocasio – Cortez and is handed the platform he MUST run on, if Menendez caves in he is finished.

If he doesn’t he will find himself fighting her AND Hugin. She is right next door in New York City and has just announced she wants her Crazies to start “occupying” airports. If she picks Newark Airport what will Menendez do?

Remember the ridiculous Survey Monkey has Joe Manchin from West Virginia (where Trump won by 42 points) and Jon Tester of Montana (who won by just 3.5% in 2012), both leading by the same 12 points that Debbie Stabenow is leading by in Michigan where Trump won by just .3% in 2016.

Does that make any sense at all? Of course not.

In 2016 Survey Monkey was exposed by Wikileaks as a willing collaborator with NBC to produce fake polls showing Hillary Clinton leading. They are back to making things up again.

Bob Menendez goes in the loser bin and along with Bill Nelson of Florida, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Jon Tester of Montana. Menendez makes number seven and counting.

The other four will be identified in a future installment.

[pepsi_junkie]

Also need to calculate the Murphy factor, he is widely hated as well, raising taxes every day is pissing everyone off.

I'm old enough to remember Jim Florio raising taxes right after running on a promise not to raise taxes. The theory was that by reelection time everyone would forget the lie. We didn't.

I was in college at Rutgers at the time and even among us students there was an "ethics question" that went around. Went like this: "In front of you stand Adolph Hitler, Joseph Stalin, and Jim Florio. Your gun only holds two bullets. Who do you shoot?" The answer is "You shoot Florio twice to make sure the bastard is dead." Of course today we'd be thrown out of school and our future lives destroyed for making a joke about gun mock gun violence. But it was funny then.

[Deplorable American1776]

I’d love to see Chris Murphy (Crazy Moron - CT) be retired by Connecticut’s voters...

[Hyman Roth]

Manchin is a master politician.

In other words a bull shit artist

[taildragger]

"Hugin will unfortunately, however, lose the election. . .. to whoever the NJ Democrats substitute for Menendez on the ballot (last minute). Take it to the bank. They will likely sub a guy like Sweeny or even our new Jack Nicholson’s version of the Joker look-a-like aka Phil Murphy."

I don't know how she was not on my Radar screen until a few weeks ago or I forgot about her, the writer Selena Zito ( and Brad Todd ).

Are you familiar with her warning the lame streams that this Trump phenomenon is real back in 16' and you should consider he can win and the book she has authored on this new pragmatist voting block?

I have listened to a number of John Batchelor's podcast with her.

Frankly the electorate is in no mood for a last minute swap/crap like that, even if it is NJ, many have given up on Party designation according to Zito and they just want someone who will get *h!+ done, and at this point that means someone who will support PDJT and possibly someone who hasn't been in office before as well.

They are playing with fire if they do....

[xzins]

Yep.

[novemberslady]

Bttt for the day after elections.

[Trump.Deplorable]

Murphy and Menendez are pissing off the moderates

Murphy pissed off the potheads as well, since he didn’t legalize weed like he promised

A lot of anger brewing at these two.

Republicans have a decent chance at that seat, might as well go for it.

Moderates decide elections here, generally they will side with the “D”, but if the “D” pisses them off they will either vote for the “R” or stay home.

But of course republicans are great at shooting themselves in the foot.... multiple times....

[Trump.Deplorable]

If it looks like menendez is going to lose, they will just replace him with Frank Lautenberg in the 25th hour.

---

He’s dead Jim, oh wait, that hasn’t stopped the Democrats before

[wetgundog]

John James (R) over geriatric grandma Debbie Stabinow (D) in Michigan.

[Haiku Guy]

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Chelsea Clinton will be elected to the US Senate by the State of New Jersey in 2018.

Yeah... I know... Hear me out...

In October, it will be clear the Robert Menendez is going down to defeat. The Democrats cannot afford to lose this seat, so they will perform another Torricelli Switch after the ballot deadline.

They will need a big name, with instant name recognition, to run in the short campaign. Senator Lautenberg is dead and no longer available (as opposed to last time when he was dead AND available). So what other name is there on the Democrat side bigger than Clinton?

Hillary does not want to go back to the Senate and Bill is... Bill, so the job will fall to Chelsea.

There will be a week of lawsuits and hooting and hollering, but the NJ Supremos will step in and settle the matter with about two weeks to go. In a short campaign Democrats will step all over themselves to rush to the polls and cast a ballot for somebody named “Clinton”.

Chelsea will run on a centrist Democrat “Third Way” platform, and there will be no stopping her.

Take it to the bank!