Posted on 11/13/2017 6:26:43 AM PST by davikkm
The stock market has surprised many this year by continuing to skyrocket to new all-time highs. Consumer and investor sentiment is high, the unemployment rate is low and Wall Street is excited for potential corporate tax cuts. Currently, things could not be going much better. However, I cannot help but notice that the stock market resembles the overvalued and excessively bullish conditions that led to modern history’s most severe stock market crash from 1929 to 1932.
Extremely Overvalued
One of the most striking similarities between today’s market and the market of 1929 is the extreme overvaluation of stocks. One of the most widely used metrics for measuring the valuation of stocks is the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio (CAPE), which is shown below. It has been an excellent predictor of long-run returns. A high CAPE means low returns over the next 10 years and vice versa.
(Excerpt) Read more at investmentwatchblog.com ...
Ho hum...
Another “expert”, who claims that his economic model is “superior” to the real world and so the real world is wrong. And doomed...
I wonder if — to prove his “bona fides” — this “expert” has shorted the market’s leading stocks. If so, he may be writing his next biased prediction from Debtors’ Prison.
Free Traitors™ try to tell us that Smoot-Hawley caused the Great Depression LOL!
There are also significant differences between 1929 and now.
There will be a correction, it will be the same but different.
I wonder if what we're seeing is just accumulated pressure that businesses are letting off, due to the lower regulation of the current administration. Figure that it's been building up for at least 8 years, likely quite a bit more than that. There might be some more room to run.
Where I live in the SE, you can't throw a rock without hitting construction, or a "Now Hiring" sign. Things are going gangbusters, at least for the moment.
That said, a small correction would be good to let off a little pressure and shake out some of the dumb money. I'm not seeing signs of that yet, usually right before we have a correction, all of the economists are saying "There's nowhere to go but up!" and "This Train Ain't Stopping for ANYTHING!!". That's usually a good sign to sell, means that the train ain't stopping, it's going right over a cliff.
I was getting a little leery about the market, but then Trump comes back from Asia with 250 billion in purchases / investment deals.
Back in 1929, individual investors could go on margin up to 90%. Today, it’s 50%. Huge difference.
We’ll have another recession, no doubt. Not this year, though.
When they do this, they select a few parameters and ignore all the others.
I understand that the left is desperate for a market crash under Trump, and that they have to change their underwear often when looking at the market reports.
Some of this is wishful thinking, some is hoping to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Mostly just incompetent babblings of someone who believes he is an expert.
Also, they have to cover up the deals Trump just brought back from the Orient.
I think a lot of people including Trump suspected that there would be a pretty severe downturn, likely manipulated, if he won. I still think it’s likely, especially if they can’t discredit and remove him with the fictitious Russia narrative.
Only if Congress butts heads with the President and does nothing to reduce taxes and bring between 2 or 5 trillion dollars back into the USA.
Its more like 1921.
There's the broker, the bull and the bear.
It's queer, but it's not a joke.
For you get the bull till your bankroll's bare
and the broker says, "you're broke."
A Tale of the Ticker--Frank Crumit (1929)
Another sky is falling prediction.
The best argument for the stock market being overvalued is that its price level reflects the excess liquidity created by the Fed as a remedy for the 2008 crash and ensuing recession. On the other hand, not only is the US economy growing rapidly now, but pro-growth policies by the Trump administration and GOP Congress seem likely to make that a long term trend. Finally, the rapid pace of technological change seems to be working to the advantage of large, well-capitalized business organizations listed on the stock market.
The Great Depression happened, not because of overvalued stocks, but because investors bought stocks with little or no money. When they couldn’t pay, the economy went into the toilet.
Also, high tariffs didn’t help.
Also a lot of individual investment is in retirement accounts that can’t use margin accounts.
All I know is that the experts have been predicting another 1929 market crash for as long as I can remember.
How the market survived 8 years of obama is a mystery to me and it seems the market is just beginning to catch up.
My uneducated guess is that the market keeps going up mainly because bonds and CD’s currently pay so little. If you wanna to keep up with inflation, you gotta buy stocks.
That will end when the Fed raises interest rates back to historical levels. But that would make it more expensive for governments to borrow. So I’m guessing the Fed will be in no hurry to raise rates.
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