Nevada early voting *PING*
My head hurts just looking at it.
Does’t look as incredibly damaging as first reported. At least not to me. I could be wrong.
If Trump is up 26% with indies, he’ll def win NV.
More Democrats than Republicans voted early.
I’d say it favors Trump.
Shhhh. Let them think they are winning.
93 and 96% of Ds and Rs respectively is probably too high. 85% and 90% in NV might be better.
I’d say it favors Trump.
The analysis shows that 2% of Republicans are going for Clinton, but 5% of Dims are going for Trump. However, the big item is that Indies are going to Trump at 2:1.
Thus, total for Clinton thus far would be 170,651 and total for Trump would be 189,803.
Unfortunately, this doesn’t include yesterday, which was a monster day in Clark.
The final numbers can be found here - http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4567
Dems
Total EV (In-Person, Absentee, Mailling): 324,239
% of total: 42.11%
Reps
Total EV (In-Person, Absentee, Mailling): 276,611
% of total: 36.18%
Unaffiliated
Total EV (In-Person, Absentee, Mailing): 167,148
% of total: 36.18%
Dem lead over Rep in EV - 46,628
Still, this is not as bad as I thought or heard (some were saying 65K lead)
I have done polling for political campaigns and even helped run a House campaign several years back.
The analysis done here is solid as long as the CNN poll results are correct. If Trump truly holds on to more GOP voters than Hillary holds Dems, and if Trump is up with Independents by 28% (I’m skeptical of that), then all the Dems have done with their huge turnout is lower her margin of defeat.
On the other hand, if the CNN numbers are off, and Trump leads by only 2 or 3 points, then the Dem turnout is likely enough to win the state.
Bottom line, the notion that the Dems have an insurmountable lead in Nevada even though Trump is polling ahead there is a laughable conclusion. I suspect Nevada will be very tight on election night, but at this point, no one knows with any certainty which side will come out on top.
I was digging into these numbers earlier today and trying to find a breakout of Romney’s numbers among independents going into election day. The best I could find was him +7 but wasn’t clear if that was Clark county or the whole state.
In any case, as someone pointed out above, Trump is +27 with NV Independents in the latest CNN poll. I try not to read HotAir anymore but AnalPundit has it on good authority from some NV expert named Ralston (a leftist, to be sure) that he’s dead f’n certain Crooked has NV in the bag. Key takeaway:
“He predicted in 2010 that Harry Reid would hold onto his Senate seat when many conservatives thought the red wave that year would wipe Reid out and hand his seat to Sharron Angle. Ralston was right. He predicted in 2012 that Obama would defeat Romney in the state but that Republican Dean Heller would win a Senate seat in a nailbiter. Right again. He predicted in 2014 that the big red wave that was brewing would lead to wins for Republicans up and down the ballot in Nevada. Correct.”
So, I don’t know. I wouldn’t spend any more time there or CO if I were Trump. I think you’ve got to play to your base (white working class), and the midwest is where the greatest percentage of those people are. They also have more EV’s, so bagging one of them may be enough with OH-NC-FL-IA - even if NH doesn’t come through.
I'll speculate that Obama’s lead in Dem/GOP early voting was significantly higher than Hillary's lead in 2016, which appears to be less than 5%.
The numbers I dug up earlier today indicated that the actual voter registration tallies in Nevada as of 10/31 (or somewhere around then) were 39.7%-32.6%-27.7%.
So it looks like the Democrats are slightly outperforming their registrations, the Republicans are doing even better, and the unaffiliated voters are running a few points behind.
Let's all keep in mind that Obama won Nevada by 7 points in 2012, so it's critical for Trump to do well among unaffiliated and minor-party voters.
Early voting in Week 2 was 360,000.
Total votes cast in 2012 was just slightly over 1 million.
It seems likely that early voters in 2016 will be at least 40% of the total vote.
Looks like the Vegas Unions lined up their members to vote. Not as bad as what was previously reported.
Till I heard about this i was confident trump would win the election based on all the other early voting now im not so sure.
Is Mulllins or whatever the guy running big in Utah running in Nev? If yes then we could be looking at fully half of other in both categories going to 3rd parties. If not them likely in line with rest of nation and at 6-7% for Johnson and Stein. That would leave roughly 15% of the vote for the top 2. Since most polls i’ve seen have indies breaking for Trump the second scenario is better. The fewer indies that go to the top 2 tickets would hurt Trump,
How is this vs 2012?