Reuters Baffled As Clinton's Lead Over Trump Suddenly Evaporates

Time Magazine Image, Reuters Graphics, RealClearPolitics on zero hedge ^ | 6AUG16 | Reuters, RealClearPolitics copied by Tyler Durden

[vannrox]

Reuters Baffled As Clinton's Lead Over Trump Suddenly Evaporates

by Tyler Durden

Aug 6, 2016 2:55 PM

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We're gonna need another polling methodology 'tweak'...

Having seen her poll numbers suddenly explode higher (and Trump's collapse) following Reuters' decision to tweak its polling methodology, it appears we just witnessed 'Peak Hillary' as Reuters reports Clinton's lead over Trump has tumbled back to just 3 points (the poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points) meaning, as Reuters is forced to admit, that the results suggest the race is roughly even...

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's lead over Republican rival Donald Trump narrowed to less than 3 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Friday, down from nearly eight points on Monday.

 

About 42 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, to Trump's 39 percent, according to the July 31-Aug. 4 online poll of 1,154 likely voters. The poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning that the results suggest the race is roughly even. Among registered voters over the same period, Clinton held a lead of five percentage points, down from eight percentage points on Monday, according to the poll.

Reuters tweaked data shows Hillary's lead has peaked...

Reuters subtly points out the folly of their survey respondents...

Clinton had pulled well ahead of Trump on the heels of the Democratic National Convention last week, where she became the first woman to accept the U.S. presidential nomination from a major political party.

 

Since then, Trump has engaged in a days-long feud with the family of an American soldier killed in Iraq and squabbled with the Republican leadership over his comments and leadership turmoil within his campaign.

But as RealClearPolitics' aggregated data shows, the swings are dramatic to say the least...

 

The noise in these polling numbers is incredible and prompted MishTalk's Mike Shedlock to take a caustic look at the prognostications of the web's forecasters... Peter Atwater, President of Financial Insyghts and Author of Moods and Markets asked an interesting question today: “Have we reached peak Hillary yet?” 

In Atwater’s tweet, he posted a flashback to this January 2014 Time Magazine cover.

The answer to the question “Can anyone stop Hillary?” is pretty obvious: Yes, Trump can easily win if he can ever learn to control his mouth (a recession hits or some dirt that matters comes out on Hillary that matters).

Ridiculous Forecasts

I watch with amusement as Nate Silver posts his ridiculous forecasts on the Presidential Election Odds.

Rest assured, Hillary does not have a 79% chance of winning.

Pure Idiocy

• Supposedly, Hillary has a 79.9% chance of winning in November as of today.
• Supposedly, Trump had a 50.1% chance of winning in November on July 31, just four days ago!
• Supposedly, Hillary had a 77.4% chance of winning in November on July 12.

This is pure idiocy.

Silver is clearly taking the news of the day and projecting it out to November when voters clearly have a time span of about three days.

How Silver can look himself in a mirror and make such widely varying off the wall predictions is a mystery.

Social Mood

Atwater had a second tweet today that is quite interesting...

It says a lot about current social mood when a modest rise in people's level of happiness can upend a candidate. pic.twitter.com/Us4EFpYV3I

— Peter Atwater (@Peter_Atwater) August 4, 2016

Social Mood is clearly in control here.

 

 

Silver is totally clueless about what social mood will be in November, just as he was totally clueless about social mood the entire Republican nomination process.

*  *  *

We leave it to Reuters themselves to conclude with their thoughts on the drop in Hillary's support and revival of Trump...

The reasons behind the shift were unclear.

Unclear indeed.

[vannrox]

Our Lying Media and The Polls tomohalloran.com | AUGUST 5, 2016 - snip -

By Max Von Solow PG Farnsworth "We have just completed our own poll since we cannot get factual information from the mainstream media!! we called 1000 homes in each of the 50 states and asked basic questions on the economy, terrorism, immigration and presidential pick.

Economy was the number one factor that Americans are concerned about and terrorism was number two.

Presidential pic was Trump by a large percentage

Trump 33478 votes 67% Clinton 9788 Votes 19% Undecided or other 6739 votes 13%

My friends and I are all Graduate students from all walks of life we meet to discuss stuff 13 people who like and have served the military. It took us most of two weeks to be sure our calls were to all people and not just one party or an other we called Americans.. our poll is by taking registered voter lists and we accumulated 33% repub, 33% dems and 34% ind.. our poll consisted of 1000 calls per state. all 50 states. 50,000 people are in this poll not the 100 like other polls."

http://tomohalloran.com/2016/08/05/lying-media-polls/

[NYRepublican72]

They shouldn’t be baffled. Hillary’s convention bounce is eroding. Just like convention bounces always do.

[pepsionice]

I would suggest going back to 1976 and comparing what happened to Jimmy Carter-enthusiasm in 1980. The general enthusiasm after four years just wasn’t there (polls didn’t matter, if people won’t show up to vote).

Go look at photos of arenas rented by Hillary and her team from summer and fall of 2015 during the primary build-up, and the during the spring primary season of 2016. They would rent a 3,000 capacity arena, show pictures of it looking full, but the reality was that maybe only 700 to 1000 actually showed up. Trump rents a 5,000 person capacity arena, and a minimum of 5,000 people show up.

Enthusiasm is what matters. You need people who will go and actually vote. Trump has a factor of ten on this scale. Hillary at best....maybe a factor five or six.

Go look at Ford’s loss in 1976....he never generated enthusiasm and easily lost to Jimmy Carter-hype. This 2016 is about enthusiasm. If this were Bernie Saunders running against Trump....there would be more enthusiasm generated for the Democrats (that was the one thing that Bernie knew how to do). Hillary can’t bring that to the campaign.

[poinq]

Hillary is using surrogates to attack Trump and hopes Trump spends his ammo attacking them. Trump should always stay on target and attack Hillary. If Meg Witman attacks Trump, Trump should say that Hillary is selling her self to another rich person. If Buffett attacks Trump, Tump should say that Hillary sold the middle class out to Wall Street. If Buffett asks for Trumps Taxes, Trump should ask for all Hillary’s Wall Street speeches. And the tax returns of her foundation. Trump should keep his fire on Hillary. She is trying to stay off camera because people are reminded of how unlikable she is whenever she talks.

[seawolf101]

The polls were false and made up. People are catching on and it is obvious to people that it’s all just another lie. In order for hillary to win there will have to be massive voter fraud throughout the country in ways that will be torally obvious to people. The rigged the primaries and the fbi investigation so they think ithat people will not realize that the election is being rigged.

[Vince Ferrer]

I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain

- Frank Herbert in Dune

[Fred Nerks]

Some sunshine

thanks for posting, vannrox.

[angry elephant]

I thought this thread would be Reuters amazed that Trump is 70 percent versus Shillary 15 percent, the rest undecided.

[lee martell]

Her lead was not fully real. It was mostly done with mirrors.
One leftie story mirrors another leftie’s story, and so on.

[Billyv]

In 76 we were the first 18 yr olds to vote in a presidential election. Watergate soured us on the status quo and Ronald Reagan was a True American and a breath of fresh air. When the RNC “Berned” him at the convention for the “incumbent” insider Gerald Ford we were so furious at the Republican Party (we didn’t realize there was a GOPe at the time) that we protest voted for Jimmy Carter to put them in their place. We then came back to our senses and rallied behind RR and saw Reagan elected and we’re proud to be Americans again.

This year Donald Trump is bringing back that sense of American Pride we all yearn for coupled with what may be a large protest vote from the Berners ( that cannot be reflected in the polls) as well as the new Trump Democrats in the working class. The one thing Trump knows that the elites don’t is that even George Bush (not supporting Trump) only gets one vote on Election Day. There are many more out of work working class Americans than there are out of office elites and they are going to vote in record numbers this year. We Americans are going to take our country back in November, Amercans are going back to work, and PC is going to be flushed down the toilet bowl. As “Hillary” says - we have come too far (The Donald as our nominee) to turn back now! To the GOPe/DNC/UN/Globalists/etc. from Donald “You’re Fired”!

[MIA_eccl1212]

yes they changed what they used for sampling to inflate her numbers... and that put her up... and they are still using their numbers to keep her up... but if they were to stop doing that ‘crooked’ thing they did... she would go down to WAY under trump.

She is done. They know it.

[jsanders2001]

I don’t think it (her purported lead) was ever there. I think it’s been a pure fabrication created by the Alinskytes from Day 1...

[piytar]

Even Reuters cannot fake the pro-Hillary numbers anymore. Some of the internal polls have been leaked and they are even worse for the PIAPS. And the debates have not even happened yet!

Please stay safe, Mr. Trump. Lots of Hillary opponents and associates have been “randomly” killed or committed “suicide”’lately. /sadly not kidding

[Bogie]

I’ll second that.

[Candor7]

Reuters Baffled As Clinton’s Lead Over Trump Suddenly Evaporates>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Allahwahoo Poofbar!

The MSM can no longer create their arcane propaganda.It has become ineffective.

There is too much genuine truth out there rattling around like an MSM doppelganger.

[MIA_eccl1212]

can you share what you heard... we need some leaking bad news about Hillary other than the condition of her depends.

[dp0622]

Wouldn’t hurt to have Rudy and Christie attack too.

Hillary has her attack dogs. We need ours.

Whatever they say we can’t lose. If it goes over great, well, great. If it doesn’t, Trump didn’t say it.

He can agree or not agree with their statement four days later after polls come in :)

[egfowler3]

Polls are only meaningful if executed honestly, otherwise they are meaningless.

[BigEdLB]

Special sauce internals propped up the villainous beast

[RedWulf]

>Hillary is using surrogates to attack Trump and hopes Trump spends his ammo attacking them. Trump should always stay on target and attack Hillary. If Meg Witman attacks Trump, Trump should say that Hillary is selling her self to another rich person. If Buffett attacks Trump, Tump should say that Hillary sold the middle class out to Wall Street. If Buffett asks for Trumps Taxes, Trump should ask for all Hillary’s Wall Street speeches. And the tax returns of her foundation. Trump should keep his fire on Hillary. She is trying to stay off camera because people are reminded of how unlikable she is whenever she talks.

Trump’s been doing that and responding to the smaller attacks, but the media is only reporting the smaller attacks. Hell they turn off the Cameras in his rallies when ever he start slamming Hillary hard. The media has crossed over from biased to criminal. They need to be in jail as propagandists pretending to be real news.