Posted on 03/31/2016 9:36:20 AM PDT by Oldpuppymax
In sports we use the “magic number” formula to describe a team’s chances to either clinch a pennant or be eliminated. Ted Cruz has a “magic” elimination number. When either Donald Trump or John Kasich win a combination of 184 delegates, Cruz’s mathematical chance to win the nomination with 1,237 delegates is gone. Since the number of available delegates left to be won is a zero sum game; every delegate not won by Cruz moves him closer to his “magic” number downward.
Even if Cruz sweeps Wisconsin, which is not a sure thing because Trump is either leading or close, Cruz’s magic number will all but bottom out after the April 19th Northeast Super Tuesday which will put 267 delegates up for grabs. Even if Kasich can cut into Trump’s Northeastern hold, it is all but impossible to make a case that Cruz wins enough delegates to hold off the crash of his magic number.
John Kasich has no magic number. His campaign was over the day he announced. Nevertheless, both can act as agents of Mitt Romney’s GOPe and continue to try to keep delegates out of Trump’s column.
After April 19th there will be only one reason to vote for either Cruz or Kasich and that will be to force a disastrous, contested convention in July. That would help only Mitt Romney or whomever he deigns to lay hands on to help him steal the nomination. The voters will recognize this...
(Excerpt) Read more at thecoachsteam.com ...
teddy has no self-respect, just power hunger, so he doesn’t mind.
teddy is no principled consistent conservative.
Instead, he is a Uniparty establishment hack.
These two teen aged boys think that the head cheerleader really wants to go to the prom with them. Won’t they be sad when they finally realize she led them on to have her boyfriend (the GOPe selected one) to pony up more money.
Will either still respect dirty Paul Ryan after its all over?
It’s not “Trump’s nomination.” It’s the Republican parties nomination. If he didn’t like the requirement that you have a majority of delegates to win that nomination, he should have run as an Independent.
In order for Trump to get the nomination he needs to win 53% of the remaining delegates. If Cruz gets 53% of the remaining delegates, he is not going to have enough to win the nomination, but he might have enough to take the lead from Trump going into the convention.
Let’s pretend for a minute that Cruz manages to take the delegate lead from Trump before the convention. Will Cruz then be automatically entitled to the nomination? Will it be stealing the nomination from Cruz if the delegates pledged to all the other candidates do not immediately pledge their fealty to Cruz?
Of course not! Guess what? That does not apply to Trump either.
If Trump gets more than 53% of the remaining delegates, then he will get the nomination. If he fails to get 53% of the remaining delegates, then after the first vote at the convention, whichever of Trump or Cruz manages to get the votes of the delegates that are pledged to Rubio, Kasich, Jeb!, Carson, Huckabee, etc., will win the nomination.
“Will Kasich and Cruz willingly play the GOPe’s “Golden Retriever” to help steal Trump’s nomination?”
They dont have a choice.
So let’s say Cruz by some miracle wins the nomination by some scheme at the convention. He would lose most Trump supporters, more importantly the Democrat crossovers. Cruz is the stereotype “Right winger” to Democrats, even moderate ones. they hate, smug, pious, preachy, and effete. That is it in a nutshell, Trump supporters want a win and think Hillary is much, much worse and Trump fares much better against Hillary. I know “Look at his negatives”. those negatives, mostly softheaded women, middle class, white, middle manager types. Whose single issue is to have the ability to drag their little Brittany or Courtney to the Planned Parenthood to get rid of their boyfriend Cody or Lemonjellos’s baby. Trump can makeup those women with men, oh newsflash, they were not voting for Cruz anyways.
Well duh! Of course he will.
Calgary Ted has been high level GOPe for a couple of decades now.
Yeah....people seem to be forgetting that.
He can say NO at any point, right?
Each candidate owes his loyalty to his supporters, to the conservative cause, and to America.
I do not see how any of this translates into Cruz owing Trump and his supporters (many of whom here have maliciously attacked him for months) to drop out of the race.
If Cruz is a spoiler to Trump, then Carson, Bush, Rubio, Kasich, etc. have been a spoiler to Cruz.
What would have happened if Trump and Cruz went head to head beginning at Iowa? We will never know.
What we do know is that Trump has not yet gained enough momentum to secure the required delegates to insure he gets the nomination. He still may yet. However, if he does not, he has to win by the same rules as everyone else. Whether that results in the best candidate or not does not change this. Whether he or his supporters feel it is fair, is irrelevant. Most conservatives will agree that we have been living under a very unfair political reality for most of our lives. And we do not have billions of dollars to insulate ourselves from the impact.
Those who have earned delegates get a say in representing those who voted for them, to bring their views and ideology to the table. Nationwide it is only winner takes all if a candidate reaches 1237. Apart from that it will be contested.
This could result in Trump still getting the nomination but conceding the VP spot to Cruz. It could result in Cruz getting the nomination but allowing Trump to pick his VP. Or it could result in any other bizarre outcome.
And none of these outcomes is likely to beat the Dem candidate because the GOP will be divided. A Trump-Cruz ticket would have the best chance of uniting the base and winning. But it would be more likely to work if it were negotiated now rather than at the convention.
I blame Trump and Cruz for this divisiveness. Both have ignored Reagan’s 11th commandment. So have a large number of their supporters. Both candidates should have politely disagreed or pointed out the weaknesses of their opponent respectfully. A good example of this was when Trump politely suggested that his friend, Cruz, might have problems with the natural born citizen issue. But he abandoned this tactic to start calling nasty names and insults. Cruz did similarly. When Trump suggested the possibility of Cruz being his VP, Cruz mocked him. That was a huge mistake. Both have accused each other of things with no evidence.
Both respective groups of supporters, which represent millions and millions of voters each, must unite to defeat Clinton or whoever the Dem nominee may be.
Trump supporters need to stop whining about things being unfair for their candidate, stop insulting Cruz and his supporters, and start waking to the reality that Trump is NOT going to win without Cruz supporters whether he gets the nomination or not.
Cruz supporters needs to stop lashing out at Trump and realize that Cruz will not win the general even if he gets the nomination, unless he has Trump’s supporters.
There are some Cruz supporters who will never vote for Trump. There are some Trump supporters who will never vote for Cruz. Those must be kept to a minimum to win.
Wake up people or get used to Clinton being called Madame President for the next few years. And get used to a liberal Supreme Court that strips away all of your God-given rights. You’ve been warned.
more like ksick plotting to be trump’s vp and keeping cruz locked out
I saw your comments on not supporting either Trump or Cruz if they win the nomination.
I’m not supporting Kasich or Ryan or anyone who gets placed ahead of one of the two frontrunners, and just to be honest, I’ll have serious problems with someone far behind a leader being placed in front of that leader.
It’s the establishment I’ve been hoping to get rid of all along. If they use insider power to supplant one or the other of the leaders to impose their pick on us, then I honestly think that at that moment in time I really won’t care what happens. I will have had it confirmed that my vote doesn’t count anyway.
To quote a famous American, at that point “what difference will it make?”
LOL!!!!
As evidenced by what?
SPECIFICS!!!!
The main difference I see is that President Hillary will complete Obama’s mission to destroy America.
Other than that, no biggie.
So will Kasich or Ryan
Kasich might bungle his way to the destruction of America, but I don’t that would be the mission of either.
Well you are preaching to the choir to me.... but Cruz supporters don’t see that
Cruz fit a perfect check list to them...
Trump with all his warts is the best chance to win and also by far the best chance to break up the power structure in DC
that’s why he’s the best chance to win because I think this country is really ready for that
if you want to break up the china shop ....send in a bull
Cruz already agreed to be the lapdog for 30 pieces of silver.
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