What surprises me is that those Iowa voters weren’t turned off by the “shaming” scandal. I’m wondering how that invasion of privacy is sitting with New England voters.
Hopefully Trump will win NH..
Trump and Cruz must crowd out Rubio soonest...
I am not a Trump supporter, with that said, I will say that Trump’s coming in 2nd speech was the type of thing that will garner him votes. Humble, positive and delivered with style, it was a far cry from what the media has been blasting across the airwaves for months when the Donald speaks.
Last poll out of New Hampshire has Trump by 26% over Cruz.
Sort of puts Iowa in perspective.
yep.
Congrats to Cruz.
I would think Trump would win NH but “smart” is not a description of his political acumen at this point. Missing the debate, pathetic ground game and not spending his own money in the Iowa market were naive. He may be smart but he hasn’t shown it yet.
I don’t believe Trump has ever been behind in New Hampshire in any poll since he announced. Always ahead at least in the last 6 months.
You do realize that any pre-Iowa poll in NH is largely useless, right? The narratives have changed and many voters will take a second look at the candidates, likely mentally shrinking the field based on those who did horribly in Iowa (e.g., Bush, Kasich... possible exception is Christie, who clearly blew off Iowa for NH).
Now, if the polls coming out by the weekend, which would include sampling dates from today on, still show Trump with a huge lead, then he's probably going to win NH, despite his lack of on-the-ground organization. If they show the race significantly tightening, then that ground game difference might really matter.
New Hampshirites never seem to care what the caucus results are in Iowa nor should they.
This place is WAAAAAY out of his wheelhouse.
If Donald realizes that it is time to tone down insults which are offensive to many Evangelicals, get substantive to bring in on the fencers of both parties, explain his changes and humanize himself and explain how populism is true conservatisim he can win. Keep going as is is starting to wear thin.
Real Clear Politics does it really mean anything?
Iowa is a proportional delegate state. Cruz won 8 votes, Trump won 7 votes, and rubio won 7 votes.
Hardly what I would call any sort of real victory, more like a three-way tie.
No.
And he should play it smart by not trying to parlay Iowa into “unstoppable”.
Keep expectations REAL low in NH. Rubio is a good bet for 2nd there.
Given Iowa’s record of picking winners losing is probably a blessing.
No he cannot. Cruz has a better chance of getting hit in a drone strike than winning NH. SC is going to be a climb also. Then Trump will take Nevada and FL. Unless some unknown tsunami strikes.
Let's see where the polls are by Sunday - there will be some movement, as there always is after the voting actually begins.
I think it is highly unlikely that Trump loses NH. Remember, this is the state that voted for McCain, Romney, etc. They like NE liberals and moderates, so Trump is a natural fit for them. But I expect we will see the gap narrow significantly. I would expect that Trump wins with less than a 10% lead.
Cruz has never counted on a win in NH, but if he can come away with a strong 2nd or 3rd, he goes into SC in good shape.