Posted on 02/02/2016 9:20:52 AM PST by jmaroneps37
Last night Texas Senator Ted Cruz won a clear, if small, victory in the Iowa Caucuses. He worked hard and smart to achieve his victory over Donald Trump and Marco Rubio; hats for off to him.
Iowa is a very different place where different elements add up to victory. At this time it is unclear how Cruz did among the Evangelical voters who turned out in large numbers but they were not the only voters to turn out. Clearly he did well enough with other voters to reach his magic number.
Nevertheless, as the Iowa system works the worst news for both Trump and Rubio will merely be the headline showing them finishing second and third because while Cruz got 8 delegates for his win Trump and Rubio both got 7 delegates for finishing second and third. Now the process moves first to New Hampshire a sharply different type of state where Trump holds a large lead over both Cruz and Rubio.
Trump’s lead is currently larges enough to present a tall order for either or both to overcome and convince voters they deserve to win. The latest average of available polls from New Hampshire, shows Trump with a more than 20 point lead over both men. Can either or both close and beat out Trump in the Granite State? Stranger things have happened but that likelihood is not very great.
Trump ... has amassed a huge fortune during a lifetime of ups and downs. He has apparently been very good at learning from mistakes. He didn’t make too many in Iowa and finished with one delegate less than Cruz.
".. he is a quick study as shown by his ability to come so close on his first try; and a 20 point cushion to enter round two with.
(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...
Cruz is a decent conservative, but I think he's got some problems. He's actually weak on immigration, really changing recently (his supporters won't admit that). His TPP and Corker bill charade was the farthest thing from conservatism. His unwillingness to confront the Clinton sex sleaze also shown a lack of principle.
My preferences still are with Trump, because of his main issues (immigration, economy, military, ending muzzie invasion), his executive experience and strength, and his ability to beat the media.
I like Cruz second, just not sure he's got the strength, and I'd have to drink a quart of whiskey to vote for Rubio (okay, okay, I needed two last time......).
3rd place will be a victory for Cruz. NH is out of his wheelhouse.
If Trump wins NH by 10 points, nobody but the most biased will spin that as a loss for Trump.
Voters are tuned in this year. It's not going to be "what happened in Iowa stays in Iowa".
Have you ever heard of Reagan?
Wrong - there is a debate Saturday night in Manchester. And while Cruz is still reaching out to evangelicals even in NH, in that state his big push is for the libertarians. Remember that Ron Paul got 17% last time. If Cruz can peel of even half of those voters and add those votes to the strong conservatives and evangelicals, he should have a strong 2nd or 3rd place finish in NH, which is what he expects.
Given Iowa’s record of picking winners losing is probably a blessing.
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I thought the same thing.
Oh so...
Trump losing one state, but having only one less delegate, kills his brand.
But Cruz can lose states, but he should be the nominee?
That logic...
Iowa is Iowa, nothing big came out of Iowa except how big of losers everyone was except the top 3.
As for NH, The story will be who was 2 and 3 and how close they were to #1.
After SC, the story will be how Jeb, Christie, Kasich, Carson, Fiorina and Paul should suspend their campaigns.
I'm sorry, but since he is leading by 21 points a week out, a 10 point win would be portrayed as a dramatic loss in support in a very short period of time.
Hopefully ‘run the table’ is now out of the ‘16 lexicon. DT supporters are finding that autopilot ground games go nowhere... Don is a germophobe thus pressing the flesh and kissing babies is out.
My prediction for NH is that Trump prevails, but Rubio takes 2nd, leading to the Kochs getting involved on The Rube’s side, along with the entire GOPe. Rubio is a DREAM puppet for them.
Umm we just saw how irrelevant the polls were.
Trump would take a 10 point win today and run to the next state. Any of them would.
That gigantic evangelical population of New Hampshire?
And no libertarians run from people like Cruz because they dont care for religious candidates.
Oops. Thanks. I guess I better make plans to be home. Even though I was wrong about no debates, I thank you for correcting me cuz I could have missed it.
Well ok. Let’s see how Cruz does in New Hampshire. That is the next battle. Will he beat Trump in New Hampshire? We will know in one week and around 6 hours or so.
Trump leads because NH is a very socially liberal state. Trump fits right in. Cruz not so much. The real contest will be in SC
No, it’s a liberal state.
A more liberal guy wins NH.
I doubt very seriously that it will be that close.
“Don is a germophobe thus pressing the flesh and kissing babies is out.”
Seriously? This is really what you typed, and said “that sounds about right”?
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