Posted on 02/02/2016 9:20:52 AM PST by jmaroneps37
Last night Texas Senator Ted Cruz won a clear, if small, victory in the Iowa Caucuses. He worked hard and smart to achieve his victory over Donald Trump and Marco Rubio; hats for off to him.
Iowa is a very different place where different elements add up to victory. At this time it is unclear how Cruz did among the Evangelical voters who turned out in large numbers but they were not the only voters to turn out. Clearly he did well enough with other voters to reach his magic number.
Nevertheless, as the Iowa system works the worst news for both Trump and Rubio will merely be the headline showing them finishing second and third because while Cruz got 8 delegates for his win Trump and Rubio both got 7 delegates for finishing second and third. Now the process moves first to New Hampshire a sharply different type of state where Trump holds a large lead over both Cruz and Rubio.
Trump’s lead is currently larges enough to present a tall order for either or both to overcome and convince voters they deserve to win. The latest average of available polls from New Hampshire, shows Trump with a more than 20 point lead over both men. Can either or both close and beat out Trump in the Granite State? Stranger things have happened but that likelihood is not very great.
Trump ... has amassed a huge fortune during a lifetime of ups and downs. He has apparently been very good at learning from mistakes. He didn’t make too many in Iowa and finished with one delegate less than Cruz.
".. he is a quick study as shown by his ability to come so close on his first try; and a 20 point cushion to enter round two with.
(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...
Look Cruz isn’t going to win NH. He’s probably not going to win any other primary. Rubio will now be ascending. This will shake out at some point with Trump and Rubio in a hot contest and Cruz a distant third. Outside of Iowa Cruz is not viable with enough republican voters. He has never polled well from the beginning.
My contention is that it just might be that people in parts of the country where folks value their privacy might not be real fond of such tactics.
The problem with Cruz is timing.....7 days and no debate or anything to help him. Well see. It is certainly not Iowa and the easy win for cruz due to evangelicals there but we will see.
Yes.
Trump losing kills his brand.
Cruz isn’t expected to win in NH and never was.
“Rubio will look like a toddler in diapers going up against the Clinton machine. “
I suppose there’s no way to get along, given the degree of animosity on both sides here, but I wish the two factions (pro-Trump / pro-Cruz) could at least agree that ANY sign that ANY GOP-e candidate has a chance at this is a very troubling thing.
I don’t like Rubio and I don’t believe a word he says about anything. If the GOP-e / media somehow succeeds in having Trump and Cruz knock each other out of the box, and manages to sell Rubio as the “mature, reasonable” alternative - it’s all over. The election’s just going to be McCain / Romney all over again and whichever socialist RAT wins the nomination on their side will win the election.
I don’t know. Iowa is not made for Trump. Trump should have gotten 2 percent but he did incredible considering. I don’t understand why people think this was so horrible for Trump......Oh my gosh he lost 1 delegate. Big deal.
I still think Trump has the money and the armor to take out any of the democrats, to include Biden or Warren. He’s a new conservative, some of his positions either suck or are poorly stated, and he’s a gamble. But he can win. And he just might believe in this conservatism he says he’s adopted. The troubling thing about gambling is Scotus judges. It’s crucial that he appoint moral conservatives to the bench. He opens a real path to New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan...His chance to win against the liberals on a ten point scale, 10 high. Trump gets a 7.
I think Cruz is the best conservative. He’s smart, he’s engaged, he’s actually experienced beyond his one term in the senate in both business and government, all on the legal side. He’s fairly well financed, but we wonder if he’ll get the kind of money he needs to compete with the liberal establishment. Fox has proven to me that they are liberal and he’ll get hammered there more than he gets helped. He adds zero in terms of a new electoral path to victory, and being from Texas, he doesn’t add a state that we won’t get anyway. Social conservatives WILL come out to support him and maybe Hispanics. That says he’ll look for conservative justices to appoint to Scotus. His chance to win against the liberals on a ten point scale, 10 high. Cruz gets a 6
Rubio is traditionally a conservative, but the comprehensive immigration bill needs to be weighted more than anything except Life and Guns. He sold out on amnesty. Being the son of non-US citizens, an anchor baby, it is easy to see WHY he went that way. He is, however, the most outspoken in favor of natural marriage, natural marriage, and traditional morality. He is strong on defense, but amnesty says he’s weak on homeland security. Just to be honest, Rubio is George W. Bush, a compassionate conservative. His morality says he’ll look for conservative judges. I can support him if I have to. Electorally, he guarantees that Florida is red, but that is still the traditional republican electoral path to victory. We know how GW Bush made us hold our breath, well, the same with Rubio. He does bring in Hispanics. His chance to win against the liberals on a ten point scale, 10 high. Rubio gets a 7
To get the pure conservative we give up a bit in the area of electability, in my opinion. That leaves us with a gamble or another ‘compassionate conservative’.
Yes, but that is more than a month away, and there are a lot of contests between now and then. If Trump loses more states or even if Cruz and Rubio make it close in some of the states where Trump now has a large lead, that could change significantly in Florida.
Nothing was similar with the Huckster or Santorum.
Closest thing to trump they had to deal with was...?
I'm wondering if they're going to have some election violation complaints filed against them. Or perhaps some of the other remaining candidates will find a way to work together to stop these tactics.
Now they're trying to make a big deal about stuff Rubio might or might not have done after his Freshman year of college. Anyone who isn't disgusted about that kind of tactic should do some real hard thinking back to mistakes we all make when we're 18.
"Slash and burn" does not help the cause of Constitutional Conservatives.
>> When a campaign sends me a mailing with my neighbors name on it and them a mailing with me identified as a neighbor and a true or bogus voting percent, and attempts to scare me into voting, I’m never voting for them.
That’s certainly your prerogative.
And you can even jump up and down and noisily demand that everyone agree with you! Also your prerogative.
The fact remains that in Iowa, they simply didn’t agree with you for the most part.
Rush Limbaugh has turned into another GOPe supporter. I don’t think there is single so called Conservative that is not showing his true colors. Rush, Levin, et al...........
They won’t even know and the ones who do won’t care!
It showed his true class. Look at the rambling me, me, me, speech of Cruz that had to be cut off by Fox. HUGE difference in quality of the men.
If Cruz was leading in NH at this point and then lost, it would be comparable to Trump losing Iowa. As it is, if Cruz can get within 10 points of Trump in NH, it will be seen as a win for Cruz and a sign that Trump is losing momentum.
In both Iowa and NH, the number of delegates at stake are minimal - it is all about perception. Yesterday's vote creates the perception that Cruz and Rubio have momentum, and Trump is fading. Losing a significant portion of his lead in NH would reinforce that perception, even if he still wins the popular vote.
I agree.
Iowa was an easy win?
Cruz took fire from all sides including “Nasty” and “Unlikable” attacks.
The Evangelicals love trump. I know because he told me.
You so easily drop the idea that ideas and a convervative foundation supported Cruz’s victory...
Last week trump had it in the bag and Cruz was going to lose bad.
It didn’t happen, hype only wins for democrats.
Please don’t whine and complain about what happened...
Trump supporters here have said we want someone who will “fight to win no matter what it takes”!!
Cruz took on Iowa’s governor, ethanol subsidies, Trump, Palin, and did it all with Glen Beck’s endorsement!!
Fox News has given Trump an untold amount of free press.
Rush for several months has devoted big chunks of his program to defend Trump from the media and the establishment!!
Cruz still won...
Trump almost finished 3rd with all those YUGE crowds in Iowa!
It was a nasty trick and typical of big government politicians. Deliberately scamming people to fear their reputations with their neighbors is lower than low. Nobody goes to the trouble of checking on whether neighbors vote or not, but this sounded like a government threat and was intended to sound that way. I call it scumbag politics.
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