Posted on 07/09/2010 5:10:03 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
Sarah Palin cranked up her 2012 presidential campaign another notch today, with the release of a campaign video aimed directly at women. The basic math is simple. If she gets half of the female primary voters and caucus attenders to support her, then she standing starts at roughly 25% of the total vote. Throw in a third of the male vote and she's at roughly 40%. Forty percent wins the Iowa caucuses, handily.
Which then sets up New Hampshire as the place where the not-Sarah candidate emerges. In all likelihood, that will be former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who finished second in NH in 2008 and who will spend whatever it takes to win there in 2012.
Assuming that the race is then reduced to Palin and Romney, the next critical state primary is South Carolina. At that point, I don't think the specifics really matter. The fact is that the Republican Party of 2012 is not going to nominate a Mormon as its standard bearer. And the more important fact is that the base of the Republican Party doesn't just favor Sarah Palin, they love her. She is their standard bearer. And they will not -- this time around -- be denied.
As the Republican avalanche of 2010 builds -- and I saw a poll the other day of a Democratic-leaning state Senate district on Long Island where the "right track" (8%)/"wrong direction" (83%) was unlike anything I had ever seen -- Palin has smartly positioned herself as the champion of the conservative counter-revolution. By December, she will almost certainly be the de facto front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination.
By the time the Establishment GOP wakes up to this reality, it may be too late for them to do anything about it. Their view of Palin is that she's useful to the party because she can help keep "the Tea Party types inside the tent." And maybe she can serve coffee while she's at it. Palin's view is that (1) "the Tea Party types" are the party, (2) she is their standard bearer and (3) anyone who thinks "the Tea Party types" are there to lick envelopes and knock on doors should think again. They're there, she asserts, to take back their party and to take back their country.
"She's too stupid" is what the Establishment GOP really thinks about Sarah Palin. "Good-looking," but a "ditz." This is unfertile ground, since Palin can turn the argument on a dime and say: "They drive the country into bankruptcy, they underwrite Fannie and Freddie, they bail out Goldman Sachs, they fight wars they don't want to win, they say enforcing the immigration laws is silly and they call me stupid! I'll give you a choice: you can have their smarts or my stupidity, which one do you want?" A large number of GOP presidential primary voters will take Palin's "stupidity" in a heartbeat.
What this means is two things: (1) the pressure on former Florida Governor Jeb Bush to run for the GOP presidential nomination will increase as the year moves along, and (2) the likelihood of a strong independent party candidacy increases as Palin's support within the GOP broadens. Oh, and it also means one other thing: President Obama is not doomed.
Yeah, facts are stubborn things ;-)
I agree. Good comments...
A little curious, I am, about the following: what part of her agenda, which particular policies, would Palin not be able to accomplish as president due to her support of McCain?
I don’t expect anyone to really have an answer to this, and I maintain the position that her support for McCain is a non issue.
Fair enough. I think you've underestimated her readiness to assume the office of president. I personally believe that she scores higher on a test of the key attributes necessary for good leadership than anyone else currently in the fold.
Thanks for the in-depth history lesson.
I think that most people on the center-right see the eerie parallels between Reagan and Palin, and are reacting to her accordingly. In her case, she doesn't have to get all the way to the debates to seal the deal with Republican voters. She's already done that, and is already the de facto front runner for the nomination.
Her inevitable announcement of her intention to run is going to open a floodgate of support of historic proportions. She IS the anti-Obama.
What is Sarah's agenda and what are her policies?
Palin's support of McCain is an insult to every Arizonan because of the damage McCain has done to this state. I don't appreciate some outsider, who isn't even running for office, coming to Arizona to influence our election.
You should be concerned about McCain being in the Senate because of the damage he has done in joining with liberal Democrats on many issues that steal your liberty.
Shame on Sarah Palin for endorsing McCain. It was an evil thing to do.
Are you asking me so that you can take a position? That’s a bit odd.
“It was an evil thing to do.”
Yeah, especially the part where she was thinking “AHA! Now I’ll show those conservatives. We RINOS will not be beaten! We are RINOS and we are strong! And I’ll prove how strong we are by pretending to be conservative with everything I say, while getting RINOS elected in the meantime so that our precious Socialism can reign supreme one day!”
Come to think of it, I don’t really believe this is likely.
We’ll see who LOL’s.
Don’t be so naive. Palin is selling books and gathering lecture fees to get rich.
I’m asking you:
What is Sarah’s agenda and what are her policies?
Don’t you know?
Of course I know—to the extent she’s stated them. And don’t forget, character is just as important as policy, and that’s what she’s been demonstrating also.
But the real question is why are you asking me this? It’s very broad. I’ll help you narrow it just a little.
Let’s take abortion. She’s opposed.
Taxes. She likes them lower.
Government. She wants it smaller.
Military. Palin supports it.
Individual liberty (not a very specific policy but foremost in our national heritage). Supports.
Now I’m tired of explaining this to you. Look it up.
What does this claim have to do with your other claim that she’s “evil” in supporting McCain?
I think you might be unraveling a little.
Heh....yes, we will.
Yours is still the funniest statement I've seen regarding Governor Palin's chances at the 2012 nomination:
"The chance of her being nominated are one in one hundred."
FR poster stephenjohnbanker
That's about the clearest case of denial of reality I think I've seen around here in a good while. I'll admit that it did make me laugh out loud.
You’re barking up the wrong tree Dio. Rabs like yourself is a top FR opponent of Romney. I believe he considers even an endorsement by Myth to be such a black mark that it would cause him to seriously doubt whether a candidate can be trusted.
Let’s not take any criticism of Palin to be ‘pro-Romney’ just because they are likely to run against each other. I said I disagreed with something she did once and some fool (name escapes me) immediately called me a “Romneybot”.
Now Palin’s support of McLamewad is certainly understandable. But it’s still wrong. There is no case to be made for John McCain in the GOP primary, none. Hayworth is is more conservative, the likely rat nominee I would probably peg as as third tier, he can’t win. McCain we all know used Palin to get our votes, he doesn’t deserve her “loyalty”. Palin knows all that (I hope). She made a political decision, the media would have blasted her as “disloyal” for backing Hayworth but so what they blast her for walking out of her house in the morning. She made a poor choice. We don’t need to put her on a pedestal. Everyone is capable of error. I hope her support doesn’t put McCain over the top. It would be a shame if Arizona is unable to trade up.
Excellent point about Palin. I’ll add it to the next Monster Ping.
“[Palin] hasn’t actively campaigned for [McCain] since her first and only visit.” — onyx
I haven’t seen anyone dispute that and assume it to be true then. All Palin critics have regarding McCain is radio commercials being replayed multiple times. That fails to impress me. I see a LOT of good in Palin. God bless her.
“She made a poor choice. We don’t need to put her on a pedestal.”
I agree. Nor should we ignore the good things she does.
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