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In NY-23, Conservatives Win (Erick Erickson of Red State)
RedState.com ^ | Wednesday, November 4th at 12:04AM EST | Erick Erickson

Posted on 11/03/2009 10:24:33 PM PST by nutmeg

The race has now been called for Democrat Bill Owens.

This is a huge win for conservatives.

“Whaaaa. . . ?” you say.

There are two big victories at work in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.

First, the GOP now must recognize it will either lose without conservatives or will win with conservatives. In 2008, many conservatives sat home instead of voting for John McCain. Now, in NY-23, conservatives rallied and destroyed the Republican candidate the establishment chose.

I have said all along that the goal of activists must be to defeat Scozzafava. Doug Hoffman winning would just be gravy. A Hoffman win is not in the cards, but we did exactly what we set out to do — crush the establishment backed GOP candidate.

And make no mistake, despite the Beltway spin, we know for certain based on statements from the local Republican parties, that they chose Scozzafava based on advice from the Washington crowd.

So we have demonstrated to the GOP that it must not take conservatives for granted. The GOP spent $900,000.00 on a Republican who dropped out and endorsed the Democrat. Were we to combine Scozzafava and Hoffman’s votes, Hoffman would have won.

Secondly, and just as importantly, there has all of a sudden been a huge movement among some activists to go the third party route. We see in NY-23 that this is not possible as third parties are not viable.

Third parties lack funding and ability for a host of reasons. Conservatives are going to have to work from within the GOP. The GOP had better pay attention.

For all intents and purposes, NY-23 is a trial run for Florida. And in Florida, the conservative candidate is operating inside the GOP. If John Cornyn and the NRSC do not want to see Florida go the way of NY-23, they better stand down.


TOPICS: Government; Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: conservativevote; hoffman; ny2009; ny23; owens; scozzafava; scuzzafava; scuzzy
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To: nutmeg

Sure, we can win the seat back as a party, no worries. But the real game here was Conservatives vs RINOs.

We lost. That’s NOT going to help our cause. There is a much bigger picture here than many of you cheerleaders want to admit.

Hell, I’d love to be celebrating this tonight. But this was the real race to celebrate. The others were for the news media hacks.


41 posted on 11/03/2009 11:33:56 PM PST by perfect_rovian_storm (The worst is behind us. Unfortunately it is really well endowed.)
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To: nutmeg
A Hoffman win is not in the cards, but we did exactly what we set out to do — crush the establishment backed GOP candidate.

While this is true, and I hope the GOP leadership in liberal states like New York and California takes careful note, it's also true that Obama turned a Republican House seat into a Democratic House seat. Scozzafava's endorsement of the Democratic candidate might have made the difference, and should embarrass every GOP leader who supported her.
42 posted on 11/03/2009 11:34:30 PM PST by AnotherUnixGeek
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To: nutmeg

While I applaud the ideal, the truth is, the only way to get the GOP to be more conservative is to ensure that the same party hacks who tried to gain this seat at any cost (and basically give it to the liberals) understand that wooing liberals to come to the Republican party won’t mean much if their base is heading out the backside of the tent to go to their own party.

That’s what this is all about. Anyone with a brain understands that the majority of Americans are conservative in one respect or another. There might be disagreements about specifics, but the majority hold fundamental beliefs that the liberals are seeking to destroy.

To overcome the D numbers with more R numbers, they’ve taken a broad tent approach, seeking, by default, to create a coalitionist government under the R banner. They do this by ignoring their base and instead giving the farm away in an attempt to look more liberal to woo in the blue dogs and Reagan democrats to be.

To them, it is all about party registration, because people generally vote their party. But it ignores that they’ve lost many many people not by being too conservative, but by being not conservative enough, and thus people declare themselves independent.

My vote’s no longer free, and I hope that everyone here takes a similar stance. I will vote, no matter what the cost, for the conservative in the race. I’ve learned my lessons, it’s time that the GOP leaders do the same.


43 posted on 11/03/2009 11:37:38 PM PST by kingu (Party for rent - conservative opinions not required.)
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To: perfect_rovian_storm
But the real game here was Conservatives vs RINOs. We lost. That’s NOT going to help our cause.

I think this seat means nothing. If Doug was a better candidate he would have won, same goes for Dede. They were both terrible.

44 posted on 11/04/2009 12:02:54 AM PST by staytrue
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To: kingu

I just received a “letter” from Newt yesterday, and you better believe I’m going to reply! I am going to give him a polite, but forceful earful! He is an opportunist, and that is all. He touts conservativism on one hand and rushes to support the most leftist candidate the Republicans can offer...as if we don’t notice. A Republican willing to work with Obama we DON’T need! Let the Dems carry the full responsibilty of this fiasco they are trying to ram down our throats! Newt didn’t deliver in 1994 after winning the Congress, then playing politics, as usual. He is a hollow suit, blowing whichever way the wind goes. It’s time we call him at it and tell him to shut up! He no longer represents conservatives (unless he sees some political gain for himself!). We’re done with the RINOs!


45 posted on 11/04/2009 12:05:48 AM PST by Shery (in APO Land)
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To: perfect_rovian_storm

We’ve got a big election coming up in 2010. I hope the conservative teaparty’ers don’t try and help my district.

It’s already operated by a Dem.


46 posted on 11/04/2009 12:15:13 AM PST by unsycophant
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To: RobRoy
You RobRoy said:

“The Republicans and Democrats are so similar as to be virtually indistinguishable. “

That's totally ridiculous. None of the Republicans in the House or Senate support the public option in the Democrats Health-care bill. Yet every single Democrat Congressman and Democrat Senator is for the public option. Democrats are and have been Marxists since at least FDR's time.

The threat to Americans' way of life, our living standards, our freedom, and even our ability to put food on the table is the Democrat party, the media, and government which I see as one, the Marxists. Anyone that doesn't actively oppose Democrats , the media and government is part of the problem and is helping the democrats/Marxists to turn the U.S. into a socialist state and therefore aiding in the destruction of our civilization.

Anyone that instead helps democrats by making Conservatives stop supporting the GOP is doubly guilty and a traitor to freedom as I see it. you, those like you, Michael savage and even Glenn beck by saying that Republicans and Democrats are the same do make conservatives drop support for the GOP. The GOP is the only thing now that can stop the public option and other socialist bills and they are doing it so far and have been since Hillary and Bill Clinton tried it in 1993.

I've been saying this for years yet you and your ilk keep bashing republicans as a result you now have what you want a filibuster proof super majority of 60% democrats/Marxists in the Senate. So when will you be happy when Democrats pass the public option and soon thereafter Socialism destroys our American civilization to the point where we are in the stone Age as socialism destroyed Cuba , North Korea and the Soviet union? Then will you still be bashing Republicans and saying they are the same as democrats?

Also NO Republicans in Congress support cap and trade , global warming laws etc. While all Democrats in Congress are for cap and trade and global warming regs. So how can you say the parties are virtually indistinguishable? IN Congress, All Democrats are for raising taxes and letting the Bush tax cuts expire while all Republicans are for lowering taxes.

You didn't know how good you had it when the GOP had a slight majority In Congress ( not a super majority like the Democrats have now) with no cap and trade, no government health-care,no public option, no Amnesty for illegals, etc on the verge of passing into law. Many more examples.

Yes as you should be able to see now the years of the Republican controlled Congress from 1994-2007 were the last era of good times for America. During the years the "evil" Republicans had a slight majority in Congress:
1. taxes actualy went down,
2.U.S. unemployment averaged around 4% the best in the world, and is considered full employment. 3.The GOP stopped government healthcare from being passed by HIllary and Bill clinton and other democrats.
4. The GOP stopped Amnesty for illegals for all those years.
5.The GOP stopped kyoto, and global warming regulations from being passed,
6 U.S. economic growth averaged 3% .
7 U.S productivity skyrocketed.
8. No attacks by Islam after 9/11/01 <9> The American people and economy remained FREE.

Compare this little summary of mine to any period in history for any country mr. cherry picker.
many more examples

By contrast , ever since the Democrats took Congress America has been declining very rapidly, basically in a free fall in practically all areas that i listed above and those that matter like our freedom: the deficit is exploding by trillions,unemployment is over 10% and rising, the U.S. is in a depression,illegals are overrunning the U.S., the dollar is about to collapse like the German Mark did, government health-care is about to pass, then Amnesty for illegals then global warming Regulations to put a final nail in the coffin of an already dead U.S. the economy. But and Savage, you should be proud as you helped all this come about and also you helped to destroy freedom in the world forever. All this just to teach the Republicans a lesson right?

Now since you and your ilk wanted to teach Republicans a lesson you have Marxists like Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Reed with a filibuster proof super majority about to pass cap and trade and government health-care, and Amnesty for illegals just for starters. Marxists/Democrats will do it with you and your ilk and Michael Savage's help. And even you Glenn Beck you is helping Democrats by saying this nonsense. Although Glenn Beck is correct in everything else he says. Michael Savage is a Democrat/Marxist operative posing as a nationalist conservative to make money and help Democrats Turn the U.S. into a socialist state.

47 posted on 11/04/2009 12:36:54 AM PST by rurgan (Sarah Palin:"Big government is the problem, not the solution" Me:socialism doesn't work)
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To: nutmeg

Okay everyone...take a deep breath.

First of all, this was a great test and a victorious moment for the voters. New Jersey and Virginia is just the beginning. We have a long hard fight ahead of us and we are going to have to do it as AMERICANS.

It’s the big picture we need to look at and be thankful for what was accomplished. I no longer consider myself a Republican....I am an American and I am going to fight for my country...peacefully...through my vote and activism.

We are getting rid of the crooks, thieves and those who no longer listen to us. Get it? We are going to change the politics of this country. This is REAL change...the real deal.

The traitors, narcissists and criminals are going to leave office...period. The new voices will represent the foundations our country was established on...and will be conservative...and will follow the Constitution.

We can’t reach our goals fighting among ourselves or showing weakness. I thank God for what was accomplished and I pray that we will continue on the right path to saving our country.


48 posted on 11/04/2009 2:52:31 AM PST by BlessingsofLiberty (Obama, YOU LIE!!)
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To: rurgan; All

Oh rurgan ! Your soooo Silly!

Juan Williams has it right. Hoffman like many 3rd party candidates was a novitiate when it comes to running a campaign. Its amazing he got as far as he did. Particularly in a district as spreadout as the 23rd is. I think from what I understand the 23rd has bits and whole pieces of 18 counties which comprize this district.

Any 3rd party candidate who as a novice on the first try comes up with 46% of the vote suggests maybe if he intends to run again he should move into the district. And before he started and any 3rd party or novice who intends to run for office should read this
http://www.theusmat.com/home.htm


49 posted on 11/04/2009 3:01:17 AM PST by mosesdapoet (What did Obama's first trip to the UK with his 500 friends (and who were they) cost US ???)
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To: nutmeg
Yes and no. Conservatives showed they absolutely cannot be taken for granted. Had Hoffman had full support earlier, he might have won. But if RINOS want to hold out, they also showed we can't win without help, even in a conservative district.

What we don't know is to what extent the loss is attributable to a) funding (or lack thereof, which I doubt since Palin nationalized the race); b) organization on Hoffman's part, or c) Hoffman himself (he seemed pretty dull). We can no longer "blame Bush," that's for sure, but it certainly isn't a maxim that merely by putting in a conservative you win. I think the maxim is, "A conservative will always be competitive." Whether that candidate has enough pull on non-social issues (esp. jobs and taxes) to convince the social libs is up in the air in future races.

50 posted on 11/04/2009 3:18:09 AM PST by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: rurgan

“Also NO Republicans in Congress support cap and trade...”

Lindsey Graham does. I agree with your sentiments that that Republicans generally offer a stark contrast to Democrats on many important issues. I think where the “all the same” crowd has a point is when it comes to government expansion and constitutional limits. The majority of politicians in both parties only care about constitutional limits when it suits their narrow purposes. They like having more and more power, and their base will ususally support them, ignoring the fact that the other party will eventually have that power when political winds shift, as they always do.


51 posted on 11/04/2009 3:28:43 AM PST by Fetid Facts
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To: nutmeg
ost of reasons. Conservatives are going to have to work from within the GOP. The GOP had better pay attention.

Wrong Mr. Erickson. Last night proves Conservatives do not need the OP(formerly the GOP)considering Hoffman burst on the scene only three weeks ago thanks to The Conservative Party. Given more time the result would have been different without any assistance from the OP.
52 posted on 11/04/2009 3:31:53 AM PST by Man50D (Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it! www.FairTaxNation.com)
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To: kevao

Wrong! That’s nonsense and against the law. Please stop spreading this lie.


53 posted on 11/04/2009 3:32:59 AM PST by altair (All I want for Christmas is NO legislation passed for the rest of the year)
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To: unsycophant
We’ve got a big election coming up in 2010. I hope the conservative teaparty’ers don’t try and help my district.

It’s already operated by a Dem.


Conservatives had only three weeks to garner support for Hoffman. It's stunning how much support was rallied by Conservatives in so little time. The result would have been different if Conservatives had more time. It's a strong indication the Tea Party movement is growing stronger by the day and will more success in 2010 despite the increasingly socialistic OP(Formerly the GOP).
54 posted on 11/04/2009 3:37:14 AM PST by Man50D (Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it! www.FairTaxNation.com)
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To: nutmeg

“the GOP now must recognize it will either lose without conservatives or will win with conservatives. In 2008, many conservatives sat home instead of voting for John McCain.”

And they didn’t learn their lesson with Scozzofava. What does that tell us? Either the GOP leadership is working with the Democrats behind the scenes and conservatives are being exploited, or the GOP is truly the stupid party.


55 posted on 11/04/2009 3:39:35 AM PST by ViLaLuz (2 Chronicles 7:14)
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To: ViLaLuz

It makes me wonder if it was the scuzzie endorsement of the rat or the early RNC-funded attack ads against Hoffman that made the difference?


56 posted on 11/04/2009 3:42:15 AM PST by BOBWADE
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To: Hildy
It’s only a year. We’ll take this seat back...And all the others. What a bunch of whiny babies...I’m shocked at FR.

Winning a seat from a sitting incumbent is never an easy thing. Never.

As history goes, a decade from now, Owens is more than likely to be still in office.

I warned people like you earlier in the decade that Hillary! was going to get reelected too, no matter what happened.

In my own birth district, CA23, we lost a special election to a Democrat who promised to term limit herself. Over a decade later, she's still there.

57 posted on 11/04/2009 3:43:39 AM PST by altair (All I want for Christmas is NO legislation passed for the rest of the year)
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To: BOBWADE

“It makes me wonder if it was the scuzzie endorsement of the rat or the early RNC-funded attack ads against Hoffman that made the difference?”

Definately, I believe. For the GOP to even put Scozzafava out there to begin with was a traitorous act against the GOP supporters. False advertisement, bait and switch.


58 posted on 11/04/2009 4:05:25 AM PST by ViLaLuz (2 Chronicles 7:14)
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To: Fred
Hoffman will win in the Nov 2010 race. He will be congressman

Just like Tom Bordanaro. Oh wait ...

Bordanaro lost his special election[1] in March 1998 because:

The special election was close. The general election rematch later in the year was not. Bordanaro had the off year advantage of running against the party holding the White House. Mrs. Capps is still the rep for that district despite winning national press for adding a tattoo removal parlor for San Luis Obispo to a spending bill and despite promising to term limit herself to six years.

You're delusional if you think it's an advantage to attack a house seat against a sitting incumbent.

[1] We were 22nd district before the 2001 redistricting. 23rd district now.

59 posted on 11/04/2009 4:12:03 AM PST by altair (All I want for Christmas is NO legislation passed for the rest of the year)
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To: nutmeg

Bump for later reading...


60 posted on 11/04/2009 4:13:57 AM PST by CurlyBill (1-20-13 can't get here fast enough!)
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