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Russian Scientist: 'We should fear a deep temperature drop -- not catastrophic global warming'
Climate Depot ^ | October 27, 2009 | Habibullo Abdussamatov

Posted on 10/27/2009 10:07:42 AM PDT by ClimateDepot.com

'Warming had a natural origin...CO2 is 'not guilty' Tuesday, October 27, 2009 - By Marc Morano – Climate Depot

Reprint of new scientific paper: (Full pdf paper available here.)

THE SUN DEFINES THE CLIMATE

(Habibullo Abdussamatov, Dr. Sc. - Head of Space research laboratory of the Pulkovo Observatory, Head of the Russian/Ukrainian joint project Astrometria - (translated from Russian by Lucy Hancock) Dr. Abdussamatov is featured on page 140 of the 2009 U.S. Senate Report of More Than 700 Dissenting Scientists Over Man-Made Global Warming.)

Key Excerpts: Observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is "not guilty" and as for what lies ahead in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged, temperature drop. [...] Over the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop. [...] It follows that warming had a natural origin, the contribution of CO2 to it was insignificant, anthropogenic increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide does not serve as an explanation for it, and in the foreseeable future CO2 will not be able to cause catastrophic warming. The so-called greenhouse effect will not avert the onset of the next deep temperature drop, the 19th in the last 7500 years, which without fail follows after natural warming. [...] We should fear a deep temperature drop -- not catastrophic global warming. Humanity must survive the serious economic, social, demographic and political consequences of a global temperature drop, which will directly affect the national interests of almost all countries and more than 80% of the population of the Earth. A deep temperature drop is a considerably greater threat to humanity than warming. However, a reliable forecast of the time of the onset and of the depth of the global temperature drop will make it possible to adjust in advance the economic activity of humanity, to considerably weaken the crisis.

Excerpts: Experts of the United Nations in regular reports publish data said to show that the Earth is approaching a catastrophic global warming, caused by increasing emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. However, observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in temperature, carbon dioxide is "not guilty" and as for what lies ahead in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global, and very prolonged, temperature drop. Life on earth completely depends on solar radiation, the ultimate source of energy for natural processes. For a long time it was thought that the luminosity of the Sun never changes, and for this reason the quantity of solar energy received per second over one square meter above the atmosphere at the distance of the Earth from the Sun (149 597 892 km), was named the solar constant.

Until 1978, precise measurements of the value of the total solar irradiance (TSI) were not available. But according to indirect data, namely the established major climate variations of the Earth in recent millennia, one must doubt the invariance of its value.

In the middle of the nineteenth century, German and Swiss astronomers Heinrich Schwabe and Rudolf Wolf established that the number of spots on the surface of the Sun periodically changes, diminishing from a maximum to a minimum, and then growing again, over a time frame on the order of 11 years. Wolf introduced an index (“W”) of the relative number of sunspots, computed as the sum of 10 times number of sunspot groups plus the total number of spots in all groups. This number has been regularly measured since 1849. Drawing on the work of professional astronomers and the observations of amateurs (which are of uncertain reliability) Wolf worked out a reconstruction of monthly values from 1749 as well as annual values from 1700. Today, the reconstruction of this time series stretches back to 1611. It has an eleven-year cycle of recurrence as well as other cycles related to onset and development of individual sunspot groups: changes in the fraction of the solar surface occupied by faculae, the frequency of prominences, and other phenomena in the solar chromosphere and corona. Analyzing the long record of sunspot numbers, the English astronomer Walter Maunder in 1893 came to the conclusion that from 1645 to 1715 sunspots had been generally absent. Over the thirty-year period of the Maunder Minimum, astronomers of the time counted only about 50 spots. Usually, over that length of time, about 50,000 sunspots would appear. Today, it has been established that such minima have repeatedly occurred in the past. It is also known that the Maunder Minimum accompanied the coldest phase of a global temperature dip, physically measured in Europe and other regions, the most severe such dip for several millennia, which stretched from the fourteenth to the nineteenth centuries (now known as the Little Ice Age).

The search for a relationship between large climate variations and phenomena observed in the Sun led to an interest in finding a connection between periods of change in the terrestrial climate and corresponding significant changes in the level of observed solar activity, because the sunspot number is the only index that has been measured over a long period of time.

Determinative role of the Sun in variations in the climate of the Earth

The Earth, after receiving and storing over the twentieth century an anomalously large amount of heat energy, from the 1990's began to return it gradually. The upper layers of the world ocean, completely unexpectedly to climatologists, began to cool in 2003. The heat accumulated by them unfortunately now is running out.

Over the past decade, global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature drop (Fig. 7, 11). Meantime the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over these years has grown by more than 4%, and in 2006 many meteorologists predicted that 2007 would be the hottest of the last decade. This did not occur, although the global temperature of the Earth would have increased at least 0.1 degree if it depended on the concentration of carbon dioxide. It follows that warming had a natural origin, the contribution of CO2 to it was insignificant, anthropogenic increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide does not serve as an explanation for it, and in the foreseeable future CO2 will not be able to cause catastrophic warming. The so-called greenhouse effect will not avert the onset of the next deep temperature drop, the 19th in the last 7500 years, which without fail follows after natural warming.

The earth is no longer threatened by the catastrophic global warming forecast by some scientists; warming passed its peak in 1998-2005, while the value of the TSI by July - September of last year had already declined by 0.47 W/m2 (Fig. 1). For several years until the beginning in 2013 of a steady temperature drop, in a phase of instability, temperature will oscillate around the maximum that has been reached, without further substantial rise. Changes in climatic conditions will occur unevenly, depending on latitude. A temperature decrease in the smallest degree would affect the equatorial regions and strongly influence the temperate climate zones. The changes will have very serious consequences, and it is necessary to begin preparations even now, since there is practically no time in reserve. The global temperature of the Earth has begun its decrease without limitations on the volume of greenhouse gas emissions by industrially developed countries; therefore the implementation of the Kyoto protocol aimed to rescue the planet from the greenhouse effect should be put off at least 150 years. [...] Consequently, we should fear a deep temperature drop -- not catastrophic global warming. Humanity must survive the serious economic, social, demographic and political consequences of a global temperature drop, which will directly affect the national interests of almost all countries and more than 80% of the population of the Earth. A deep temperature drop is a considerably greater threat to humanity than warming. However, a reliable forecast of the time of the onset and of the depth of the global temperature drop will make it possible to adjust in advance the economic activity of humanity, to considerably weaken the crisis. For complete paper see here:

Related Links:

UN Fears (More) Global Cooling Commeth! IPCC Scientist Warns UN: We may be about to enter 'one or even 2 decades during which temps cool' - September 4, 2009

Flashback: 'Sun Sleeps': Danish Scientist declares 'global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning...enjoy global warming while it lasts' - Sept. 2009

Climate Fears RIP...for 30 years!? - Global Warming could stop 'for up to 30 years! Warming 'On Hold?...'Could go into hiding for decades' study finds – Discovery.com – March 2, 2009

Paper: Scientific evidence now points to global COOLING, contrary to UN alarmism

Meteorologist: 'Global cooling in its 8th year, declining ocean heat content, sea level rises slowed or stopped, sun in a deep slumber' – April 30, 2009

Geologist: 'Records of past natural cycles suggest global cooling for first several decades of the 21st century to about 2030' – June 5, 2009

Astronomers: 'Sun's output may decline significantly inducing another Little Ice Age on Earth' – August 15, 2009

Indian Geologist Dissents -- launches website: 'Enjoy Global Warming: Its natural' - Sept. 2009


TOPICS: Government; Politics; Science; Weather
KEYWORDS: catastrophism; climatechange; globalwarming
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To: SirKit

Gore-Hansen Minimum ping!


21 posted on 10/27/2009 11:58:10 AM PDT by SuziQ
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To: PeaceBeWithYou
Ooops forgot the link (Earth View realtime image)
22 posted on 10/27/2009 12:03:38 PM PDT by PeaceBeWithYou (De Oppresso Liber! (50 million and counting in Afganistan and Iraq))
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To: netmilsmom

Time to buy more rice!

Got enough room in your attic for say, 50 years worth?


23 posted on 10/27/2009 12:04:31 PM PDT by djf (Grasshopper: The game is rigged. Patience takes forever to learn. You're so screwed!!)
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To: djf

I actually converted our dining room/schoolroom to a storage room. If one puts the food in those big bins, cover with blankets and a few pillows, it becomes a seat!

I’ve got a LOT of room that way. Stack two and there are even arm rests and tables.


24 posted on 10/27/2009 12:16:26 PM PDT by netmilsmom (Psalm 109:8 - Let his days be few; and let another take his office)
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To: peeps36

http://www.veoh.com/browse/videos/category/drama/watch/v18074581txXdajzg

Twilight Zone “Midnight Sun”


25 posted on 10/27/2009 12:19:05 PM PDT by netmilsmom (Psalm 109:8 - Let his days be few; and let another take his office)
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To: netmilsmom

Good idea.
I have a spare bedroom that has bunches of the 18 gal rubbermaid plastic bins full of stuff. Beans, rice, dried soup mixes, gravy mixes, pancake mix, spices, you name it...


26 posted on 10/27/2009 12:20:25 PM PDT by djf (Grasshopper: The game is rigged. Patience takes forever to learn. You're so screwed!!)
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To: djf

That’s what I’m talkin’ about!!!!!!!
Good move!


27 posted on 10/27/2009 12:44:37 PM PDT by netmilsmom (Psalm 109:8 - Let his days be few; and let another take his office)
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To: netmilsmom

Heck I was loading up on Top Ramen back when you could score them like 17 to the buck...

Not sure how tasty 8 year old Top Ramen would be, but better than dirt I guess!


28 posted on 10/27/2009 12:57:41 PM PDT by djf (Grasshopper: The game is rigged. Patience takes forever to learn. You're so screwed!!)
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To: silverleaf

Venezuela will become very crowded.


29 posted on 10/27/2009 1:10:55 PM PDT by HardStarboard ("The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule - Mencken knew Obama)
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To: Senator_Blutarski
If you can find a copy, read “Not By Fire, But By Ice” by Felix.

This guy is incredibly brilliant at synthesizing all the sources and results of natural warming and cooling of earth over the millennia - he has over 2000 scientific source papers he has analyzed.

Plus - he's a great writer - its an easy read.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=not+by+fire+but+by+ice+felix&x=19&y=17

30 posted on 10/27/2009 1:21:53 PM PDT by HardStarboard ("The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule - Mencken knew Obama)
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To: ClimateDepot.com

As I understand it TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) sounds important but really isn’t because its variation isn’t enough to account for the temp changes seen.

Instead most people think that sunspots mediate cloud cover via solar wind and their interference with cosmic rays.

The idea that less sunspots produce more solar wind, which in turn produces fewer cosmic rays which in turn produces more cloud cover which in turn produces less solar warming.


31 posted on 10/27/2009 1:30:36 PM PDT by 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten
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To: djf

I actually love Ramen noodles.
The rest of the family will have to have pine needle soup.
High in Vitamin C!


32 posted on 10/27/2009 1:32:16 PM PDT by netmilsmom (Psalm 109:8 - Let his days be few; and let another take his office)
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To: netmilsmom

They are just very easy to accessorize and spruce up. Get them boiling, and crack an egg and throw it in. You know that can of red beans you had in your pantry like forever? Open them up, rinse them off, then Top Ramenize them!

One of the things I’ve been buying alot of lately is the little packs of gravy mixes. Brown Gravy, Chicken Gravy, Various dried onion soup/dip/mixes, that kind of thing.

We might freeze, but I will never starve!


33 posted on 10/27/2009 1:40:31 PM PDT by djf (Grasshopper: The game is rigged. Patience takes forever to learn. You're so screwed!!)
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To: BIGLOOK; 75thOVI; aimhigh; Alice in Wonderland; AndrewC; aragorn; aristotleman; Avoiding_Sulla; ...
Wow. :') Thanks BL.
 
Catastrophism
 
· join · view topics · view or post blog · bookmark · post new topic · subscribe ·
 

34 posted on 10/27/2009 4:26:20 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/__Since Jan 3, 2004__Profile updated Monday, January 12, 2009)
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To: ClimateDepot.com

To All Who May Read This,

Actually we are stupid. Our Government as a whole is stupid. So are many others who should take the Russian Scientists work to Heart. We have been stupid and shameless for years. We should never be at the crossroads of Cap and Trade. We should never be at the point our nation under God is to be given over to Global Babel. The U.N. Must Go.

We are in a Solar Minimum like no other and that affects everything on a line from St Louis and above. What affects Russia affects the USA. We may kiss our citrus industry goodbye.

We could lose all crop production depending on God’s will.

When we wake up in three to five years with our crops froze, our people taking over vacate malls and corpses stacked in hallways of schools and mega-churches, we will learn that which I’ve been saying for the last few months.

Global cooling is here. Maybe we should take it a step further due to the collapse of sunspot activity and say global freezing is not to far away.

We do not know how much we have angered God.

Unless the Good Lord changes His mind based on dumping this New World Babel for obedience to His ways, don’t be buying up a lot of Sun Block 30.

If the World keeps wanting it their way, well, those who listen to His way better listen well. Time is up. Listen to Him and His ways. Trust the Lord

As Noah finished the Ark and gathered the animals God sent to him, God closed up the Ark. What that means is, Noah, don’t listen anymore. You have done your duty. Don’t open the gate, no matter what you hear. Time is up. What happens outside is to be cleansed.

That said, I know the Russians well enough. The have counted the cost, laid the plans and made adjustments for losts.

For our government, there is not enough sand for all the heads in our various democratic liberal governments that wish to tolerate everything to be buried.

I thought at one time He would do a cleansing and not a judgment and everything set right. I now know that the God of Abraham is like Royally Angry now. He has seen the recent choices of man and his governments, He knows the hearts of our leaders. He is moving forward with His plans.

Global Babel beware.

God is not mocked. For whatever a man soweth, that shall he reap. This time it goes to the next level. It is going to the level of a cleansing, Judgment. What is normal in a minimum appears to be going severe.

He said He wouldn’t do it with water, now He will show what affect cold has on CO2. If those who think CO2 and other greenhouse gases are so bad, see what the Good Lord can do with CO2. Man has insulted His favors and His grace, we were in the best of times. But that wasn’t good enough. We mocked his gifts.

Now He will take away those good things He has given us until those who are left repent.

God is a Jealous God.

Signing Off on global warming and cooling. This is the last comment I have on this topic. I have other work to do.

May God have Mercy on us.

As Lord Jesus said, they don’t know what they are doing.

Paul Pierett
27 October 2009


35 posted on 10/27/2009 5:23:04 PM PDT by Paul Pierett (Paul Pierett)
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To: Paul Pierett

One should never expect altruism from human governance. Just look to recent examples. Human mass government has produced Nuclear Weapons, World Wars, Mass Starvation and Genocide. The greatest evil on the planet, the greatest threat to life on the planet, is Human Mass Governance. The current situation is another prime example. Human civilizations with their current population densities are greatly threatened by a cooling period, which could lead to a new ice age. And what is the response of Human Mass Governance ? To limit the very tools that humans will need to survive the cooling. It is time to stop the evil, stop the insanity and end Mass Governance.


36 posted on 10/27/2009 7:04:26 PM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: peeps36; SunkenCiv; All

Whether we have global warming or cooling, we still need to conserve our resources, and gradually reduce our population. Otherwise many people will die unnecessarily. Of course, the role of government in all of this will depend on the ability of the people to understand and react intelligently in their own interest.


37 posted on 10/27/2009 8:44:37 PM PDT by gleeaikin
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To: BIGLOOK

thanks, bfl


38 posted on 10/27/2009 10:12:24 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: Senator_Blutarski
How is it that the warmth comes first and the CO2 that causes the warmth follows it?

Apparently, as evidenced by sun spot data going back to Galileo's time, and corresponding data taken from tree rings, ice cores and direct temperature measurements, variation in the output of the sun is the culprit. This variation occurs at regular intervals and the precise reason for the variation, as far as I am aware, is not known. What is known is periods of low sunspot activity directly correspond to periods of cool temps here on earth, and, as more recently observed, on Mars. The opposite is also true, i.e., periods of high sunspot activity correspond to higher temps here on the Earth and Mars.

Periods of low sunspot activity are generally referred to as "minimums". Periods of high sunspot activity are referred to as "maximums". Historically, the Sporer Minimum (1460-1550), the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) all corresponded with extended periods of below normal temperatures. Although the precise dates of the "Little Ice Age" are disputed, it occurred during the Maunder Minimum. You can see the effects of this trend in etchings, carvings and paintings from the period showing people ice skating on various rivers in Europe and the UK.

Conversely, the Medieval Warming Period (800-1300)corresponds to the Medieval Maximum. The warming that occurred in the 20th Century corresponds to what is called the "Modern Maximum". We seem to be exiting the Modern Minimum now, though. We are currently 11 years into a cooling trend. It just so happens that we are also deep in a period of little or no sunspot activity.

It would seem much more reasonable to conclude that the rise in CO2 is an effect, like the carbonation leaving your diet Pepsi as it reaches room temperature. But that would leave you to search for a reasonable explanation for the global temperature rise, something like the variations in the amount of solar energy being emitted.

The problem with the C02 effect is that C02 is only .036% of the atmosphere. There have been periods in history where the C02 levels have been much higher, but temps much lower.

But then no one could blame mankind, and that is unacceptable.

The modern environmental movement, and especially those who preach anthropogenic global warming are far, far more interested in controlling others and making a buck, as opposed to truly being concerned about the Earth. The modern environmental movement, and especially the global warming crowd, really got going in earnest after the fall of the Soviet Union. I've often read that the new home of the Communist Part is the modern environmental movement. I've heard it described as being like a watermelon, green on the outside, red on the inside. That would explain a lot, wouldn't it?

39 posted on 10/28/2009 5:29:24 AM PDT by Thermalseeker (Stop the insanity - Flush Congress!)
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To: ClimateDepot.com

The Sun’s Sneaky Variability

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/27oct_eve.htm?list924269


40 posted on 10/28/2009 5:40:45 AM PDT by listenhillary (A "cult of personality" arises when a leader uses mass media creating idealized/heroic public image)
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