People Voting With Their One-Way U-Haul Rentals

Carpe Diem ^ | 10/8/2009 | Mark J. Perry

[SeekAndFind]

Forbes magazine just released its fourth annual ranking of the best states for business (see full article here and full data set here). According to Forbes:

Our Best States ranking measures six vital categories for businesses: costs, labor supply, regulatory environment, current economic climate, growth prospects and quality of life. We factor in 33 different points of data to determine the ranks in the six main areas. Business costs, which include labor, energy and taxes are weighted the most heavily.

Virginia nabbed the top spot with the best business climate in the country for the fourth straight year. Relative to the rest of the country, Virginia is booming. Its 6.5% unemployment rate is fifth lowest in the country with the four states ahead of it all having dramatically smaller economies and employment bases. Virginia is the only state ranked in the top 20 in each of the six broad categories we examined. The state finished in the top three in half of those categories (labor supply, regulatory environment and quality of life).

The two worst states for business this year were Rhode Island, which dropped five full places from last year to finish in last place in 2009, and second-to-last place Michigan, falling from 47th in 2008. Other highlights of the Forbes study include Texas ranking first for “economic climate,” Virginia ranking first for “quality of life,” and some states, such as North Dakota, Oregon, Montana, and Iowa, gaining six places or more from last year’s rankings.

One outcome of the huge differences in business climate among states documented in the Forbes study is that we should expect to see a movement of business, employment and people away from the worst states such as Rhode Island and Michigan to business-friendly states like Virginia, Texas, and North Dakota. Interestingly, one-way truck rental rates from U-Haul confirm this exact movement—see the chart above.

Each of the six paired quotes in the table shows the one-way rental rate for a 26-foot truck from cities in the two worst-ranked states (Detroit, Michigan and Providence, Rhode Island) to cities in some of the highest ranked states (Fairfax, VA; Fargo, ND; and Houston, TX), and rental rates in the opposite direction: from the cities in the business-friendly states to the cities in the business-unfriendly states.

In each of the six city pairs, the one-way truck rental rates going to cities in the business-friendly states are much higher than the rental rates in the opposite direction, by a factor of about 2 to 1 on average. Since the equipment is exactly the same for a one-way rental in either direction (a 26-foot truck), and since the distance is exactly the same, we can assume that U-Haul dynamically prices its one-way rentals based largely on the relative demand for trucks in each direction. If there are about 360 people moving and renting one-way trucks from Detroit to Houston for every 100 people moving from Houston to Detroit, we could then explain a pricing differential of $2,215 for a truck from Detroit to Houston (high demand) that is about 3.6 times higher than the $617 to rent a truck going in the reverse direction (low demand). The other pricing differences in the chart would explain differences in relative demand for the other city pairs.

Therefore, the significant differences in U-Haul one-way truck rental rates complements the Forbes rankings, by suggesting an outmigration of trucks and people from the lowest ranked states, with those people and trucks heading towards the most business-friendly states. Fortunately, the American people and businesses can vote with their feet, and with their one-way truck rentals, and that is apparently what the U-Haul data show they are doing—moving away from places like Detroit and Providence with high unemployment and business-unfriendly environments, to cities like Fairfax, Fargo, and Houston that rank high for business climate in the Forbes study.

[Pan_Yans Wife]

That’s not what I meant. I know what the president makes, and I have a rough idea what the Waltons make.

I’m talking about jobs here.

If you’re looking for work are you going to go to the government job or are you going to be polishing floors at night at Walmart?

Me, I’d do neither, but many folks would want to get their foot in the door at a government job. Look at the post office. They pay people NOT to work! Just show up and sit in a room, like the unions do with auto workers.

[arthurus]

The problem is that those fleeing the crime, corruption, and high taxes in Detroit et al bring it to thei destination states. They do not understand they are fleeing the attitudes that created the cess pits from which they flê. They get to Texas and think it is so much better there but Texas just needs better welfare and more services. Then they vote.

[RegulatorCountry]

Federal government employees will vote Virginia straight into Michigan, given enough time. They’ve already turned the state purple in a decade or less.

[freebilly]

Nevada fell from #19 to #31 in Forbes’ Best States for Business Rankings from 2006-2009....

[RegulatorCountry]

You forgot selling your junk back and forth to one another on CraigsList.

[who knows what evil?]

Many of the people leaving Massachusetts for NH were actually conservatives (the NH counties that border MA are the reddest in the state). The BIG problem comes from New York and New Jersey.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

“...and second-to-last place Michigan, falling from 47th in 2008.”

Come on, Jenny! You can do worse than that! *SPIT*

[SwedeBoy2]

Good One, You must have been thru Portland at one time.

My only worry is they will track me down and Tax me on all those Craig’s List sales.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

“You forgot selling your junk back and forth to one another on CraigsList.”

That made me laugh out loud. Thanks. :)

[kalee]

Interesting.

[Professional Engineer]

Folks REALLY don’t want to go TO Detroit from Texas.

[EDINVA]

Frankly, I wish they’d keep their findings to themselves. VA has been inundated with VOTERS from those other places who are changing the area in a negative way. They maintain their same old voting patterns to our detriment.

[SwedeBoy2]

Yea, I know what you mean its the same way with the Mexicans.

They come here to get away from the Poverty and crime in their Country and reestablish it here.

[tanknetter]

What percentage of the federal workforce lives in Virginia?

There's a split between VA and MD, with a lot of career feds now living further out in WV. There are lots of areas in DC that are gentrifying or otherwise cleaning themselves up. Penn Quarter and Chinatown (er, China Block) for instance. So the issue isn't just NoVA being a destination for folks seeking Federal work of some sort (Civil Service or Contracting/Consulting) ... it also provides significant benefits over the other likely destinations in the DC Metro Area.

[who knows what evil?]

Perhaps a five-year voting moratorium would be in order...establish a 5-year residency; THEN you can vote.

[LadyPilgrim]

"Proof positive we are being invaded down here."

That's what I thought. :-\

[AZLiberty]

You can get a great deal on a U-Haul from Phoenix to LA.

[tanknetter]

A cap of 135,000 a year for the government management of the federal government. Your right government workers make peanuts.

Federal pay tops out a lot higher than that. GS-15/10s (top of the GS scale) with the locality adjustment top out at $153,200 in the DC area. SESers (career, not political appointees) make up to $196,700 (Level I SES).

Then start adding on the various benefits. For example, Feds in DC are subsidized up to $230 per month - above their salaries - for using public transit (Metro, MARC, VRE, etc). Non-SESers have Civil Service protections, which amounts to guaranteed job security. So on and so forth.

[crazyhorse691]

How can Oregon Come in Tenth overall?

The city of Portland and Multnomah County are positively Hostile to any kind of Industry.

They keep raising the Taxes and driving family wage jobs out.

---

As long as the states of Washington and California continue to treat their citizens as mere money suppliers Oregon will attract people...and the county of Portland stupidly will lead the charge towards Californication...against their own best long term interests.

[John.Galt2012]

Perhaps a five-year voting moratorium would be in order...establish a 5-year residency; THEN you can vote.

That's what we should demand if the Dems go for some sort of amnesty program for illegals. Then they will have second thoughts.