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The Gold Traders Who Know What They're Doing Are Going Massively Short
Trade the Cycles Blog ^ | 9-21-07 | Joe Ferrazzano

Posted on 09/23/2007 1:50:53 AM PDT by joefrocks

The gold traders who know what they're doing, the savvy usually non contrarian gold Commercial Traders, are going massively short. They added a very respectable 17,083 short gold futures and options contracts in the latest report/5 day period ending 9-18-07, and, a massive 52,000+ short gold futures and options contracts in the previous report (possibly the largest weekly change I've ever seen), while also trading long in recent weeks (added 1303 long futures and options contracts in the latest report for the 5 day period ending 9-18-07, and, over 10,000 long futures and options contracts in the previous report), see the last/third data at COT Data.

This jives with HUI/XAU possibly putting in very important countertrend Wave B (of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06) double top cycle highs early today/Friday 9-21 (5 Day HUI Chart), with HUI putting in (potentially) a bearish double top at 402.27, only 0.14% above the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 401.69 on 5-11-06, see HUI Chart, and, with the XAU putting in (potentially) a bearish double top at 173.17, only 0.85% above the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 171.71 on 5-11-06, see XAU Chart. The huge spike move since 8-16-07 is typical of what happens near very important cycle highs.

Also, the NEM Lead Indicator is SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = +0.07% versus the XAU today/on 9-21, -1.46% versus the XAU on 9-20, +0.69% versus the XAU on 9-19, -2.33% versus the XAU on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -10.79% versus the XAU the past 17 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at NEM Lead Indicator Chart.

While Wave B cycle highs technically should be below the "ultimate" cycle highs, the market isn't an exact science (definitely a science though), indexes' components are changed periodically, and, often cycle highs will occur in dramatic rollover mode, that's very similar to a countertrend Wave B upcycle (basically the same as a Wave B when double tops occur, which is what might have happened today with HUI/XAU). The point being that, if one was in a basket of HUI or XAU components, the time to sell was in May 2006 not September 2007.

HUI/XAU should head down to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market (since late 2000) trendlines at 220ish and 90ish in the next 3-6 months, see charts 7 and 9 at HUI/XAU Charts. Gold should head down to it's primary multi year Secular Bull Market (since April 2001) trendline at $475-500 in the next 3-6 months.

Fundamentally, the current deflationary real estate/mortgage bust is a major negative for gold, just as the inflationary real estate/mortgage boom from 2002-2006 was a major positive for gold, coinciding with gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006. Gold does well in inflationary economic cycles and gold does poorly in deflationary economic cycles, which is pretty basic stuff that a true gold analyst would understand.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Education; Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: deflation; futures; gold; inflation
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1 posted on 09/23/2007 1:51:10 AM PDT by joefrocks
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To: joefrocks

bttt


2 posted on 09/23/2007 2:12:39 AM PDT by GoodWithBarbarians JustForKaos (LIBS = Lewd Insane Babbling Scum)
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To: joefrocks
So is the point, that we are heading into a deflationary cycle that will impact the world?

Or is China just manipulating precious metal markets to buy additional inventory?

3 posted on 09/23/2007 7:22:04 AM PDT by texas booster (Join FreeRepublic's Folding@Home team (Team # 36120) Cure Alzheimer's!)
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To: texas booster

The current real estate/mortgage/credit bust is a deflationary cycle that will last for years, and, is a major negative for gold.

Any gold manipulation is short term in nature and doesn’t alter the big picture cycles in a meaningful way. Gold has risen about 2% in 16 months, from May 11, 2006 until Friday 9-21-07. That’s NOT a bull market move.


4 posted on 09/23/2007 11:42:37 AM PDT by joefrocks
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To: joefrocks

London fix is down 733


5 posted on 09/24/2007 4:44:07 AM PDT by dennisw (France needs a new kind of immigrant — one who is "selected, not endured" - Sarkozy)
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To: joefrocks
Check out the au charts and you'll find a steady rise since 9-11-2001


6 posted on 09/24/2007 4:48:29 AM PDT by dennisw (France needs a new kind of immigrant — one who is "selected, not endured" - Sarkozy)
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To: dennisw
London fix is down 733

London fix is down 743 now...

7 posted on 09/29/2007 8:40:34 AM PDT by bjs1779
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To: dennisw; joefrocks
It's always nice to revisit a thread now and then.


8 posted on 02/20/2008 3:53:09 PM PST by bjs1779
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To: joefrocks
The gold traders who know what they're doing, the savvy usually non contrarian gold Commercial Traders, are going massively short.

I call BS. At the time that document was posted, Gold was in fact consolidating from a previous runup.

But the world is addicted to printing paper currency to cover government deficit spending. Until THAT problem is cured... the Gold Bull market continues...

9 posted on 02/20/2008 4:00:41 PM PST by John123
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To: bjs1779

Up up and away


10 posted on 02/20/2008 4:10:08 PM PST by dennisw (Never bet on a false prophet! <<<<<||||>>>>> Never bet on Islam!)
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To: John123

Although there is some merit in interpreting the shorts as an indicator of decline, the chartist mumbo jumbo is the modern equivalent of entrail reading.

Until the $ turns, hold on.


11 posted on 02/20/2008 4:20:41 PM PST by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 . Never say never (there'll be a VP you'll like))
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To: bjs1779

Today? ~950


12 posted on 02/20/2008 4:23:37 PM PST by RightWhale (Clam down! avoid ataque de nervosa)
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To: bert

One more thing.

Later this year the Arab friends of America fearing Obama will act to reduce the price of oil, strengthen the $ and allow the price of gold to begin a slow decline


13 posted on 02/20/2008 4:23:43 PM PST by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 . Never say never (there'll be a VP you'll like))
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To: RightWhale
Today? ~950

I think it hit 947 at one time today. I don't think it is done by any means.

14 posted on 02/20/2008 4:31:43 PM PST by bjs1779
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To: Halgr; nicmarlo; groanup; Toddsterpatriot
Like, *PING*, dudes.

Just 'cuz you like financial threads.

Cheers!

15 posted on 02/20/2008 4:45:15 PM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: grey_whiskers

Well, looks like to me all those guys got their “shorts” handed to them. LOL.


16 posted on 02/20/2008 4:49:22 PM PST by groanup (Don't let the bastards get you down.)
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To: groanup
Well, looks like to me all those guys got their “shorts” handed to them. LOL.

They all have been wrong since the word Go - ld.

17 posted on 02/20/2008 4:53:20 PM PST by bjs1779
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To: grey_whiskers; Halgr

lol...gw.....methinks that is NOT the reason why you ping...


18 posted on 02/20/2008 4:54:29 PM PST by nicmarlo (A vote for McRino is a false mandate for McShamnesty)
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To: nicmarlo
lol...gw.....methinks that is NOT the reason why you ping...

Then what reason do you think he pinged you?

19 posted on 02/20/2008 4:56:35 PM PST by bjs1779
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To: bjs1779

I have my suspicions. What’s it to you, anyhows?


20 posted on 02/20/2008 5:00:44 PM PST by nicmarlo (A vote for McRino is a false mandate for McShamnesty)
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