Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
I try to post photos, but they are pulled.
*sigh*
Pres Bush figures were double digits from almost the beginning. I signed on to his campaign in Nov 1999 and he had just ran and won big for Governor of TX in 1998. I have no idea about Clinton.
I do know that with all of our states moving primaries up to early February that candidates are in the race sooner and polling is done much earlier and much more often then I have ever seen. Dynamics have changed dramatically from even 2000.
I wonder if it would be OK to confiscate the profits from people who trade cattle futures. When I heard her today Hugo Chavez came to mind.
Gravitas is a Latin noun that, as a modern loanword, conveys a sense of substance or depth of personality.
In an ancient Roman context, the word gravitas communicated a sense of dignity, seriousness, and duty.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitas
I don't think you understand the term gravitas. I also think you way underestimate the class and compassion of Red America.
I'm fine. It's you guys who are pushing liberals on FR, trying to make the GOP put on a Schwarzeneggar, Bloomberg, Pataki, Romney, Giuliani liberal face.
Let me ask you: Why do you think America needs a second liberal party?
I love the pics! As for going door to door, I sold Avon in a rough neighborhood for 9 years. While I rarely had problems, you have to be careful these days. Always be cheerful when they bark at you ;-D
I think the opposite. It makes Rudy hip. It humanizes him. It suggests that he is willing to get laughs at himself, for a good cause. The folks who are uptight about this kind of thing, are ever thinner on the ground. No candidate trying to siphon votes from Rudy is going to get near this one, for that reason, unless well, maybe somebody runs, who is apparently not. I will leave it at that.
It was on T.V., for crying out loud and NOT at a "gay fund raiser!
That's pretty funny, coming from someone who is trying to push a pro-abort candidate on Red America.
Listen, no offense, but I'm just not interested in discussing anything with somebody who thinks that if I don't agree with them I'm a liberal.
It makes me sick and all you want is somebody to post to you so you can pontificate to make yourself feel all puffed up.
It ... was ... a ... gay ... fundraiser.
So what Hunten Dunkin is still a Fiscal liberal/ Social conservative.
Last years model.....can't give it away.
Hahahaa, no charts tonight, but the rainbow pride parade(?) endorsed by Rudy and the lovely Donna Hangover kept popping up for the last couple of hours.
Hope your kid did well : )
You know what I think? I think they know that they are in the throes of losing their chokehold on this party.
Now I'm talking about the far right wing here; not the rest of us.
You know, the ones who know you have to compromise on some things to get other things.
Yeah, folks tend to take it hard when they see the party they've labored for for decades go Judas on 'em.
But, fortunately, we're still a year from the first primaries. There's still time for Rudy McRomney and company to finish their inevitable meltdown.
The polls say about 20%-25% of the electorate are "liberals," and on FR it seems to be pushing 40% anyway, maybe more. Who knew?
Hate to burst your bubble -- knew you would say that but where I live is like any small town Oklahoma only bigger. You are absolutely naive in what you believe small town America is all about.
The town I was referencing to begin with that had the contest -- 5400 people live in that town. If that is not small town America, I don't know what is.
Could you believe that? I'm like, Give this woman a mike 24/7!
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