Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
It's all very tidily archived, too.
I live in the heart of Red America -- in fact every one of our counties is red from 2004! Here in OK and in TX, a lot of schools have members of the football team dress like woman, dance, and everything to compete for a title in order to raise money for charity. A big hairy lineman won Miss BHS the year my daughter was a senior! :)
And was that in front of a gay group, eh?
And are those kids running for president?
You worry about nothing.
I would be willing to bet what you posted goes right over their heads! :) You will probably get a Thank You!
Because "they" don't want us to; we're picking a POTUS candidate this time and they're scared to death it's going to be somebody they don't agree with, so they are trying to bulldoze us into not discussing it.
because its' a long way from January.
Actually, this will all be over by February 5th of 2008.
We cannot let the Beast win!
That is the ONLY thing that matters.
Dude, you just keep digging yourself deeper and deeper.
Like that matters? Can you honestly believe, having read posts here at FR for years, that a fair number of social conservatives will NOT have an issue with Rudy appearing in drag before a gay group?
With his poll numbers this high this late in the game the odds of that happening are nil.
"This late in the game"????
Bwhahahahaha
And doing a great job of it, if I may say so!
And Roosevelt was married to his seventh cousin, but they weren't Jewish....lol.
(Inside joke from a thread last night).
Yes, I can honestly believe that. Social conservatives are not the hate-filled homophobes you are making them out to be.
Oh, please, Phi: you know very well that winning is like kryptonite to some of these people.
I do not mean to be argumentative, but does anyone know how BJ Clinton polled in Feb 1991, or how GW Bush polled in Feb 1999?
What about economic conservatives, Libertarians? Them's the folks you need to win over. Rudy or Romney will. Hunter and the Congresscritters won't.
What about economic conservatives, Libertarians? Them's the folks you need to win over. Rudy or Romney will. Hunter and the Congresscritters won't.
At least I HAVE some political instincts; too bad you can't say the same thing.
I see. They are hate-filled homophobes for seeing a lack of gravitas in appearing in drag before a gay activist group in NYC.
Homophobes? I expect that kind of talk from Dems. Not alleged conservatives.
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