Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
Hillary really stepped in it today, when she was ranting about how the government should confiscate oil company profits to invest in alternative energy sources (I guess she doesn't own any Exxon stock). That one will will require a bit or revising and extending. And here I thought her handlers had her totally trained. There is still work to do.
GOP electoral history doesn't back you up. Lose the socons and you lose the White House.
I'll keep that in mind. Thanks!
Economics is just so boring. It is much more interesting to discuss just who is, and who is not, a latent homosexual. Stop being a bore!
I should hope so; it had to be seen to be believed.
BTW, did you realize that the Contract with America wasn't about SOCIAL CONSERVATISM?
..I can't remember the exact month, but I remember all the attention was on Mario Cuomo--Clinton wasn't even on the radar...
You are all obsessed with a man dressing in drag to raise money to support the survivors of 911. You keep telling us how Red America won't tolerate a man in a dress at a gay function. Do you honestly believe they hate that much? I don't. If you're not making them out to be hate-filled homophobes, then what do you call it? Your single argument is that they can't/won't tolerate a man in a dress at a gay function. No reference to what the function is. Even the left won't touch that one.
You'd think a crack political operative would know that, wouldn't you?
ROTFLOL!
Is it just me, or has anybody else noticed that there is a group here now trying desperately to split the conservatives even further, by now coming up with yet another wing, the Social Conservatives, aka SoCons?
In February of 1999 Bush was leading with 39%, Elizabeth Dole was at 25% and McCain was at 4%.
Haaaate. Haaaate.
That's Clintonista speak.
It's not about hate, it's about a perception of a lack of gravitas, coupled with a rather extreme liberal social viewpoint on the part of Rudy. If Rudy was anti-abortion and not so gung-ho on gay rights issues, I really don't think people would care that much.
Instead, it will just drive that message home. And ya'll are deluded if you think it won't be a factor. The Dems WILL use this against him and beat him up with it if he wins the nomination.
The Dems, especially Hillary, who is no genius, is far smarter than you are about political smear tactics.
I have no idea where you live but I live in a college town and have for ten years. My son was in a fraternity and my daughter in a sorority -- probably have seen it all and what I haven't seen I have heard about. You obviously haven't been around much or you wouldn't think this is the worst thing that could have happened.
People that I know think it is funny that Rudy is so down to earth and not afraid to dress up like a woman for charity because he doesn't doubt his own masculinity. Shame on us for not being shocked! (sarcasm)
BTW, one of the former candidates for Miss THS is now a State Senator, plans to run for Congress, and may someday run for President. I guess I better tell him he cannot run. BTW, they raised $9700+ to help one of their teammates that needed surgery that year.
Hardly, given Hunter's stance on amnesty.
Oh, I know; I could hardly believe my ears when she said it; she's gonna have to come out yet again and explain "what she really meant to say" to get that monkey off her back.
It won't be long before she'll have as many people out explaining what she MEANT to say as Alan Keyes does!
College towns are not representative of small-town America.
And, once again, couple images of Rudy in drag with his well-know far-left social positions on abortion and gay rights, and it will be toxic for him.
Gee, I guess that's why we've never seen political attacks on YouTube.
Oops, we have. So just what in the heck are you blabbering about?
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