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Unlikable, untrustworthy, unconcerned.(AP photo) Hillary Clinton’s favorability ratings are underwater in three swing states President Obama won handily: A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday found that Clinton has strikingly negative favorability ratings among voters in Virginia, Iowa and Colorado, especially compared with where she stood in the spring.The numbers come at a time when Clinton has a massive fundraising lead, relatively weak competition for the Democratic nomination and more federal government experience than other candidates. Even with these advantages, the poll shows Clinton may be vulnerable in states that by all accounts will have an outsize say in who...

Presidential candidate and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) is furious about Fox News' rules for the first GOP primary debate. In a Fox News interview on Friday, Graham blasted the right-leaning network's "dumb" rules, which will limit the participants to 10 candidates polling the best in an average of the five most recent national polls. "I think that this is a dumb way to weed out the field," Graham declared. Many critics say the August 6 debate's rules harm the candidates campaigning in the early voting states and elevate those who have been getting those most national TV exposure or...

1. Illegal Immigration is Act of Love 2. Dismisses Opponents of Common Core as Conspiracy Theorists 3. Praise of Hillary Clinton 4. He is Way Past His Prime Jeb Bush’s entry into the presidential race marks the first time he has run for office since 2002. By contrast, Scott Walker has run in three elections since 2010. 5. His Last Name Yet perhaps the biggest albatross Bush faces is his very name. This is perhaps unfair. But this is especially true after he told Megyn Kelly last month that he would have authorized the War in Iraq. After taking heat...

The Republican nominating race is a mess: a strong field, but with ten declared candidates and a half-dozen more to come, we need a bouncer to keep order. I’ve given myself the job. Rope lines separate the four categories. A. Top tier: 1. Jeb Bush. Solid, no sizzle. Sizzle may be in less demand than eight years ago, but his inability to separate from the pack, his recent campaign shakeup and his four-day stumble over Megyn Kelly’s “knowing what we know now” Iraq question have given even his supporters pause. Nonetheless, a bulging war chest, a fine gubernatorial record, and...

Donald Trump is scheduled to make an announcement on whether he'll run for president Wednesday, and he will reportedly travel to Iowa later that day for a rally. According to the Des Moines Register, Trump's Iowa staff confirmed the news. "I can't imagine what he's announcing," Ryan Keller, deputy director for Trump's exploratory team in Iowa, told the Register. "We're all waiting for that." Trump, a Republican, said last week he has made up his mind on a possible presidential run, but has not revealed his plans. His Wednesday announcement will take place at Trump Tower in New York City,...

A leftover from yesterday via Howie Carr and Gravis Marketing. We all knew the great sighing falling-in-line for Bush 8.0 would come eventually. We just didn’t know it would happen this soon.Nah, I’m just kidding. This is an outlier. Isn’t it?Carly Fiorina ahead of Chris Christie and Ted Cruz in New Hampshire? C’mon, I … can totally believe that, actually, given the state’s fondness for outsiders and “mavericks.” In fact, for a supposed outlier, the only number in this poll that’s strikingly out of sync with other recent polls of New Hampshire is Jeb’s. He’s fully 10 points higher...

Having watched more than a few of these campaigns unfold, I would venture to say that when you see a presidential primary team abandoning ship it’s usually because the campaign is beginning to look like a lost cause and the staff is still hoping to catch on with somebody who has a better chance. But that’s not the case with Ben Carson’s bid. The poll of polls still has the popular neurosurgeon within two points of Bush, Walker and Rubio and the freshest Fox News survey has him in a statistical tie for the lead. That’s what makes the latest...

One look at the reaction to Bruce Jenner on Vanity Fair’s cover, and it’s obvious that the public’s interest in someone running away from sexual constraints is a whole lot greater at present than it is for anyone running for president of the United States. Still, there is a common thread. To make the cut in the most crowded primary in U.S. history, Republican hopefuls must find a unique way to separate themselves from the pack by grabbing the attention of the American electorate. It’s a daunting task, and it won’t be accomplished simply by declaring oneself the only true...

A senate, a house of representatives, majority and minority caucuses and partisanship leadership structures — these are some of the common features of state legislatures across the country. (SNIP) Candidates for the Legislature run in open primaries without party affiliations listed on the ballot. Legislative officers and committee chairs are elected by members themselves instead of appointed by partisan caucus leaders, and minority party members still do get elected to serve as committee chairs. O’Donnell says that policy debates frequently tend to be less partisan in tone because of the unique nature of the Nebraska Unicameral and that final decisions...

Campaign Canards: Don’t fall for these electoral fallacies by Daniel Clark Now that candidates are officially entering the 2016 race, it’s only a matter of time before political pundits and historians start regurgitating every factoid, tidbit and dose of conventional wisdom there’s ever been about presidential campaigns. Unfortunately, most of them will be wrong. In particular, here are some of the most stubborn electoral fallacies that we can expect to hear repeated over the next 18 months: * The New Hampshire primary results are very important. – From a fundraising standpoint, there may be some truth to that, but the...

Rand Paul rounded on the Republican establishment as he made his pitch for the support of party activists in the key state of New Hampshire. From appearing in jeans to delivering a withering attack on the record of other Republicans, the Kentucky senator made sure he stood out from his rivals. "I got tired of seeing people in my party getting in charge and not doing anything at all," he told activists at the party's “Leadership Summit” in Nashua, New Hampshire. "They all look alike, the all sound alike, they all dress alike and nothing ever changes." Mr Paul...

The U.S. Senate’s most outspoken contrarian, Ted Cruz, became the first official 2016 candidate to launch a bid for the White House Monday. Despite the fact that he’s highly controversial within his own party, it has long been known that Ted Cruz is bankrolled by politically active libertarians who like his brand of politics. Paypal co-founder, Facebook investor, and self-styled libertarian Peter Thiel gave roughly $10,000 to Ted Cruz’s senate bid back in 2011. However, it’s his indirect contributions that really hit the mark. Thiel has shelled out an estimated $2M to an arm of the libertarian political action group,...

I don't know if Jeb Bush is a naturally optimistic fellow, although if you asked him he'd surely say he is (every candidate has to proclaim their optimism, particularly about America). But in recent weeks he's had some cause for concern. Not long ago, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found a full 42 percent of Republicans saying they wouldn't consider voting for him. Bush is the "establishment" candidate at a time when the Tea Party still dominates the Republican base. And Republicans seem unusually taken with Wisconsin governor Scott Walker, who has all the correct positions for GOP primary...

After losing New Hampshire, Florida, and Illinois, the presidential candidate limped along with declining support amid calls for his withdrawal from the race. He was short of funds with a thin organization. He was a beleaguered candidate. Then came the Republican primary in North Carolina, where that candidate, Ronald Reagan, defeated the incumbent president, Gerald Ford. Reagan’s North Carolina win reversed the course of his campaign, and he ultimately came within a hair of defeating Gerald Ford for the presidential nomination in 1976. Though he lost in 1976, Ronald Reagan set the foundation for his victory in 1980; and that...

There is a basic mystery at the heart of modern Republican presidential politics. The party’s voters, despite electing conservatives to the House and Senate, have repeatedly chosen relatively moderate nominees, like Mitt Romney and John McCain, in the primaries. With the 2016 campaign underway, and candidates positioning themselves for money, endorsements and staff, the establishment of the party is again at the center of the conversation. Even though Mr. Romney said on Friday that he had decided not to pursue the nomination, a third Bush seems poised to run, and has suggested he will not bow down to conservative activists....

Reince Priebus, Republican National Committee chairman, says that potential presidential contenders will have to poll above certain levels to earn a spot in the GOP debates. In a radio interview on the "Hugh Hewitt Show" Monday, the conservative host asked Priebus how the debates would work if there were 20 candidates vying to be heard. “You can’t,” Priebus said. “You can’t do 20 people. … You have to have certain thresholds in place, so you have to be at 1 percent of the vote in Iowa, and that threshold can move like a slide rule based on the proximity to...

This weekend I was reading a background piece on the nascent 2016 GOP field by our friend Andrew Malcolm which provides some leading indicators to watch for. (Worth a read for all of us.) He may wind up being more than a little prescient given the results of the latest CBS pollregarding how self identified Republicans feel about each of the hopefuls and if they would like to see them run. This one was taken after Mitt made it official that he was officially thinking about officially running, though he might still officially give it a pass. With the 2012 nominee (and 2008...

he Republican National Committee will announce Friday that it has sanctioned nine presidential primary debates, starting this August in Ohio and continuing through March 2016, with the potential to add a few more. The schedule will be rolled out at the party’s winter meeting here later this afternoon, but POLITICO obtained a first look at the line-up from insiders. Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/rnc-2016-debate-schedule-114329.html#ixzz3P0qSfxLm

Neither the Louisiana Republicans nor the Democrats are interested in participating in the so-called "SEC primary" for the 2016 presidential nominations that most other states in the Deep South have decided to join. Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi, Arkansas and Alabama are likely to hold their presidential primary contests on the same day -- March 1, 2016. Florida and Texas are also considering scheduling their primary contests on that date. But Louisiana seems poised to stick with it's original plan -- a March 5 primary contest. "We are better off being on a date by ourselves. ... If you throw us in...

The Deep South has elected Republicans to every top office in the region. Now it wants to be sure that clout extends to the choice of the GOP’s 2016 presidential nominee. Officials in five Southern states — Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas — are coordinating to hold their primary on March 1, 2016. Texas and Florida are considering also holding a primary the same day but may wait until later in the month. Either way, March 1 would be a Southern Super Tuesday, voting en masse on the heels of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. The joint...