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Charles Krauthammer: Handicapping the 2016 Field, Round Two
National Review ^ | 06/12/2015 | Charles Krauthammer

Posted on 06/12/2015 7:51:03 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

The Republican nominating race is a mess: a strong field, but with ten declared candidates and a half-dozen more to come, we need a bouncer to keep order.

I’ve given myself the job. Rope lines separate the four categories.

A. Top tier:

1. Jeb Bush. Solid, no sizzle. Sizzle may be in less demand than eight years ago, but his inability to separate from the pack, his recent campaign shakeup and his four-day stumble over Megyn Kelly’s “knowing what we know now” Iraq question have given even his supporters pause. Nonetheless, a bulging war chest, a fine gubernatorial record, and a wide knowledge of domestic issues guarantee top-tier staying power.

Chances: 25 percent.

2. Scott Walker. Maintains a significant lead in Iowa and it’s more than just a Wisconsinite’s favorite-son advantage. He’s got a solid governing record, has raised respectable money and has gone almost errorless for more than a month. One caveat: His major wobble on immigration threatens his straight-shooter persona.

Chances: 25 percent.

3. Marco Rubio. Good launch, steady follow-up. With his fluency in foreign affairs, has benefited the most from President Obama’s imploding foreign policy. Polls well, but with seven or so within the margin of error, the important question is less “Who do you support?” than “Who could you support?” (measuring general acceptability). Rubio leads all with 74 percent. The New York Times’ comical attempts to nail him on driving (four citations in 18 years — “Arrest that man!”) and financial profligacy (a small family fishing boat characterized as a “luxury speedboat”) only confirm how much the Democrats fear his prospects.

Chances: 35 percent.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Arkansas; US: California; US: Florida; US: New Jersey; US: Ohio; US: Texas; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: 2016; arkansas; bencarson; california; carlyfiorina; charleskrauthammer; chrischristie; florida; gop; jebbush; johnkasich; loveshimsomekasich; marcorubio; mikehuckabee; nationalreview; newjersey; ohio; paultardation; paultardnoisemachine; primaries; randpaulnoisemachine; randsconcerntrolls; rickperry; scottwalker; tedcruz; texas; wisconsin

1 posted on 06/12/2015 7:51:03 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

To all Ted Cruz supporters.... if you continue reading, he is ranked by Krauthammer at number 6 behind Rand Paul and Ben Carson with the following heading:

“Second tier, with a chance to jump”


2 posted on 06/12/2015 7:52:22 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Kraut works for The Ministry Of Propaganda, which is paid by The Cheap Labor Express to push only amnesty candidates.


3 posted on 06/12/2015 7:55:05 AM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No Peace - No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: SeekAndFind

I don’t agree with this at all....Jeb is trash; Cruz and Rubio, medium; Lindsey is a laughing stock; Santorum is one level above Lindsey; Rand Paul, still out on him, one fight isn’t near enough to get my vote; the rest: goes with Jeb in the trash....


4 posted on 06/12/2015 7:57:52 AM PDT by HarleyLady27 (Get the USA out of the UN then get the UN out of the USA; send bamaboy back to Kenya ASAP!!!!)
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To: SeekAndFind
"“knowing what we know now”"

Knowing what we know now, the GOP continues to be the stupid party who sees war as the only solution to their world control ambitions. If a candidate can't see that the Iraq war was a complete mistake and truthful to admit it, then they may get buried again still unable to rise above 'the stupid party'.

5 posted on 06/12/2015 7:59:54 AM PDT by ex-snook (To conquer use Jesus, not bombs.)
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To: ex-snook
The war was not a mistake.

The way the way was conducted was the mistake.

If W had leveled the capitals of Iraq, Iran and North Korea from 50,000 feet and then accepted the unconditional surrender of whatever leadership was left the war would have been over quickly, cheaply, and would have removed all the destabilizing influences in the world.

6 posted on 06/12/2015 8:09:35 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (You can't spell Hillary without using the letters L, I, A, & R)
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To: ex-snook
Knowing what we know now, the GOP continues to be the stupid party who sees war as the only solution to their world control ambitions. If a candidate can't see that the Iraq war was a complete mistake and truthful to admit it, then they may get buried again still unable to rise above 'the stupid party'. -------------------------------------------------------------------

Exactamundo!

7 posted on 06/12/2015 8:11:02 AM PDT by Bluewater2015 (There are no coincidences)
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To: SeekAndFind

You always have to wait a couple days (or so) for Charles to catch up with the rest of the country.

He thinks at a ‘remove’ of at least a week.


8 posted on 06/12/2015 8:25:22 AM PDT by SMARTY ("When you blame others, you give up your power to change." Robert Anthony)
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To: SeekAndFind

Krauthammer actually says that Cruz has the best chance of the second tiers to make the jump to first tier and even though he is listed behind Paul and Carson, Krauthammer says that they don’t have a chance and he gives Ted Cruz a 5% chance. So, Cruz is in 4th position, not 7th as the order of discussion would indicate.


9 posted on 06/12/2015 8:29:28 AM PDT by Anitius Severinus Boethius (www.wilsonharpbooks.com - Sign up for my new release e-mail and get my first novel for free)
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius

the Kraut can kiss me ass


10 posted on 06/12/2015 8:34:31 AM PDT by advertising guy ( panties - not the best thing on earth, but next to it .)
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To: SeekAndFind

Chuck is one of those inside-the-beltway type that is completely outta touch with the Conservative base of the Republican Party.


11 posted on 06/12/2015 8:37:40 AM PDT by TexasCajun
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Wow!

After the mass destruction, America would have had to occupy all of that land. Not possible.


12 posted on 06/12/2015 9:16:20 AM PDT by sakic
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius

I do not think the order of discussion was a indication of the candidates chances of winning. If it was the case, then Rubio would have been mentioned on top as Krauthammer gives him a 35% of winning over Bush and Walker at 25%.


13 posted on 06/12/2015 9:16:51 AM PDT by gusty
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To: HarleyLady27

If you step back a minute, you might see that Krauthammer and yourself agree quite a lot. Outside of Bush, his assessment of the others are not that different than yours.


14 posted on 06/12/2015 9:19:10 AM PDT by gusty
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To: sakic

no need to occupy something you have no interest in possessing.


15 posted on 06/12/2015 9:19:25 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (You can't spell Hillary without using the letters L, I, A, & R)
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To: SeekAndFind

TPA is going to relegate Rubio, Cruz and Walker to the bottom of the heap. The whole country has a bad taste in their mouth over this.

Perry has had the smarts to back away, Jindal I think is opposed and Trump is strongly opposed to TPA and TPP.


16 posted on 06/12/2015 9:27:49 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

The Hammer is right on much he says but it is Way To Early to put on the Swami’s Turban and make predictions. Anything can—and will-— happen. One good speech, one new 9-11 attack, one new scandal, one downturn in the economy, a big war (Japan vs. China or Russia vs. Ukraine) and the whole things could change this race overnight. ISIS may well be the factor that changes our race. So sit tight, pop the popcorn and lets just see what happens.


17 posted on 06/12/2015 10:04:59 AM PDT by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll Onward! Ride to the sound of the guns!)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Your statement is in direct opposition to America’s foreign policy in the Middle East, and that policy has been in place ever since we wanted to ensure their flow of oil.


18 posted on 06/14/2015 4:30:41 AM PDT by sakic
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To: SeekAndFind
Ve think Bush, Walker or Rubio may vin quite easily, Meester Prezident.
19 posted on 06/15/2015 7:06:14 AM PDT by Bluewater2015 (There are no coincidences)
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To: TexasCajun
one of those inside-the-beltway type that is completely outta touch with the Conservative base of the Republican Party

Exactly right.

The Republicans have been running Krauthammer-compatible candidates for Prez since '92...and look where it's got us.

20 posted on 06/15/2015 7:14:04 AM PDT by Fightin Whitey
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