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The key to predicting who is going to win an election is understanding who will vote – and that spells trouble for pollsters. The best predictor of voting intention is to ask the respondents if they intend to vote. The problem, however, is that real turnout has been around 55 percent for the last 55 years, while, historically, over 70 percent of survey respondents routinely say they intended to vote. Yikes! So are 20 percent of respondents selected in random probability samples lying? Yes....

Republican vice presidential nominee Mike Pence on Sunday expressed renewed confidence in Donald Trump and their White House bid, amid a stream of allegations about Trump’s behavior toward women and a new poll that shows the race against Democratic rival Hillary Clinton is still very close. “This is a highly-contested election; all the way to the finish,” Pence told “Fox News Sunday.” “I couldn’t be more proud to stand with Donald Trump.” Pence spoke hours after the release of a Washington Post-ABC News poll that showed Clinton leading by 4 percentage points, 47-to-43 percent, with Election Day now just 23...

Donald Trump has lost little support since the first presidential debate, despite days of damaging news stories about his treatment of women, according to a new poll. Hillary Clinton leads Trump 47 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in a four-way race, according to the latest ABC News/Washington Post national poll. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson trails with 5 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein is at 2 percent. In the previous ABC/Post poll, taken before the Sept. 26 debate, Clinton led Trump 46 percent to 44 percent. The new poll continues to show some dire numbers for Trump,...

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is poised to clinch majority of Muslim votes in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, according to a new survey by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR). Based on the CAIR poll, 72 percent of Muslim voters intend to vote for Clinton in the Nov. 8 presidential election. Only four percent expressed intention to vote for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, Christian Today reports. In addition, the CAIR survey found that three percent revealed their intention to vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and only two percent expressed support for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson....

Could the Republican be recovering from the scandals that have knocked his numbers? Donald Trump appears to have bounced back from trailing numbers in the polls, with his first lead in a national poll following the various scandals that have dogged him over the past two weeks. In the latest national four-way poll by Rasmussen Reports, Trump is now leading Hillary Clinton by two points, with a total of 43 to her 41, while Gary Johnson is on six points and Jill Stein is on two. A national two-way poll by LA Times/USC tracking has Clinton and Trump on equal...

Donald Trump hasn’t had a lot of good polling news lately. Very few swing-state polls have shown him with a lead since the first presidential debate, and those few leads have mostly been in states like Ohio and Iowa that aren’t part of Hillary Clinton’s path of least resistance to 270 electoral votes. To find good polls for Trump in states that could be part of Clinton’s firewall, you have to cherry-pick a bit — and you have to accept the fact that “good” in this context means trailing by a little instead of by a lot. With that stipulated,...

At the close of a week that began with him trailing by seven points, Donald Trump still holds a slight lead over Hillary Clinton in today’s White House Watch survey despite a flurry of news reports alleging a history of sexual harassment on his part. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Trump with 43% support to Clinton’s 41%. That’s unchanged from yesterday. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson picks up six percent (6%) of vote, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein has two percent (2%) backing. Four percent (4%) like another candidate, and five...

There's one word to describe the major national presidential election polls over the last two weeks: "wild." Just about all of those wild swings in the polls lately have been in favor of Hillary Clinton, as she's now increased her lead from less than one percentage point in the RealClearPolitics poll average to 4.6 points as of Thursday morning. But there's another word you have to use when you see such massive swings in the polls in just a few days with less than a month to go before Election Day: "baloney." And the reason why they're baloney has nothing...

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by four points in North Carolina, while Trump is ahead by one in Ohio, according to two new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls of these states. In North Carolina, Clinton gets support from 45 percent of likely voters, Trump gets 41 percent, and Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 9 percent. (The Green Party's Jill Stein didn't qualify to make the ballot in the state.) [continued]

OK folks. You know about that nice NBC/WSJ "poll" that shows that Hillary is up 11, right? Well, CTH deconstructed it. It wasn't very hard to do, and it showed the usual media bias in the sample, which is a problem standing alone. But then we get into why the bias existed, and it's not so simple as it first appears. What CTH managed to find is that the organization that ran the poll is an organization run by a man who currently is a SuperPAC operator for PrioritiesUSA in support of Hillary Clinton, and was involved in a similar...

More respondents in a new NBC News/SurveyMonkey online poll changed their opinion of Donald Trump for the better after the second presidential debate on Sunday. This, despite his aggressive tone and body language toward Hillary Clinton and the release two days earlier of lewd remarks about women he made on tape in 2005. After Sunday's faceoff, 23 percent of respondents changed their opinion of the New York businessman for the better compared with the 13 percent who did so after the first debate. Clinton saw the opposite result with just 17 percent of respondents saying they had a more positive...

Polls aren’t always to be believed: just look at Brexit and the last general election. But there would have to be a large margin of error if the latest polls on the American election are incorrect. They show Hillary Clinton trouncing Donald Trump following the footage which emerged of him bragging that his fame allowed him to do what he liked to women, including grabbing them ‘by the pussy’, without repercussions....

Clinton and Toomey lead their respective races. That’s the conclusion of the latest Susquehanna University Poll, which was conducted on behalf of ABC27. In the presidential contest, Hillary Clinton is ahead of Donald Trump by a 44% to 40% margin. Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson got 4% while Green Party nominee Jill Stein received 2%. As for the Senate race, Pat Toomey leads Katie McGinty 42% to 38%. Finally, Susquehanna tested the favorable/unfavorable splits for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump and Barack Obama. Clinton got a 39/54 split whereas Trump faces a 36/56 divide. President Barack Obama received a split of...

Even before the release of a video that showed Donald Trump bragging about sexual assault, most voters didn’t think he respected women. But Friday’s revelation had only a modest effect on the minds of those who did, according to a new HuffPost/YouGov survey. Thirty-two percent of registered voters now think Trump respects women, identical to the percentage who said so in a poll taken days before the video’s release. The share who say he does not respect women rose from 54 percent to 59 percent, as some people left the “not sure” camp. The percentage of voters who say that...

Republican pollster Frank Luntz said Donald Trump is back in the game after a strong performance at Sunday night's debate. "I may have made a mistake in writing off Trump," Luntz tweeted after the second presidential debate. "After talking with voters tonight, he's back in this race." Sunday's debate came at the tail end of the most tumultuous weekend of the Republican presidential nominee's campaign so far. Trump landed in hot water on Friday when a leaked recording showed him boasting about trying to sleep with a married woman and remarking that he could "grab" women "by the p---y" because...

Link only due to copyright issues: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-latest-poll-figures-hillary-clinton-second-tv-presidential-debate-a7352971.html

The latest wave of the YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker polled likely voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin In a new wave of the YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker Democrat Hillary Clinton leads her Republican challenger, Donald Trump, in Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The surveys were conducted before the release, Friday, of tapes showing Donald Trump speak in lewd terms about groping women. But a follow-up survey that recontacted the same voters from Friday to Saturday in Pennsylvania and Ohio reveals the vast majority of those who said they would vote for Trump earlier in the week are unmoved about...

Beltway Republicans continue to influence nobody. Over the past 48 hours, influential Republicans have greeted the latest batch of lewd, misogynistic remarks from their party’s standard-bearer, Donald Trump, with a mixture of belated revulsion and resistance, prompting withdrawals of support and renewed calls for him to quit the presidential race. However, it would appear that rank-and-file GOP voters are, once again, rejecting these calls from their party’s elites, and are prepared to stick by Trump’s side, at least for now. Those are the findings of the latest Politico/Morning Consult poll, the first of its kind to attempt to gauge the...

Republican nominee for president of the United States Donald Trump continues to trail Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that was released on Friday night. The poll, which was conducted from Sept. 30-Oct. 6 and included 1,695 likely voters from all 50 states, had a margin of sampling error of three percentage points. Likely voters were picked based on registration status, voting history and stated intention to vote in the election. “The Sept. 30-Oct. 6 opinion poll showed that 43 percent of likely voters supported Clinton while 38 percent supported Trump. Clinton has consistently led Trump by...

Link only due to copyright issues: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/10/08/iowa-poll-donald-trump-leads-hillary-clinton-by-4-points/91673644/