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Op-ed: Rethinking the Polls. Counting chickens that will never hatch and the unlikely voter
Media Fields ^ | October 17, 2016 | John Newhagen

Posted on 10/16/2016 10:03:50 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The key to predicting who is going to win an election is understanding who will vote – and that spells trouble for pollsters. The best predictor of voting intention is to ask the respondents if they intend to vote. The problem, however, is that real turnout has been around 55 percent for the last 55 years, while, historically, over 70 percent of survey respondents routinely say they intended to vote.

Yikes! So are 20 percent of respondents selected in random probability samples lying? Yes....

(Excerpt) Read more at mediafiledc.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2020election; election2016; election2020; hillary; polls; trump

1 posted on 10/16/2016 10:03:50 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; All

My aunt, who has voted a straight libtard ticket for 40+ years, told me today she was voting for Trump.

THAT more than anything else tells me the demon witch and her MSM flying monkeys are toast...


2 posted on 10/16/2016 10:08:56 PM PDT by Axenolith (Government blows, and that which governs least, blows least...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Trump voters will be voting, there is a huge enthusiasm gap.


3 posted on 10/16/2016 10:12:20 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: fortheDeclaration
Trump voters will be voting, there is a huge enthusiasm gap.

We sure will be voting! The big question is there enough of us.

4 posted on 10/16/2016 10:18:53 PM PDT by teletech
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To: teletech

I can damn well tell you Trump voters are voting.


5 posted on 10/16/2016 10:22:48 PM PDT by Williams (The (republican) party is over.)
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To: Axenolith

Listened to a local NeverTrump radio talk show host who has claimed he was voting write in for the last 4 mos said he is voting Trump. People are beginning to realize they have to make a choice.

Pray America wakes


6 posted on 10/16/2016 10:25:21 PM PDT by bray (Because you would be in jail)
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To: Williams

And this voter told the phone pollster that my vote is for Clinton. As if...! Who ‘d self-identify on one’s phone these days?


7 posted on 10/16/2016 10:26:28 PM PDT by The Westerner ("Giving Away the Internet or Any Part of It Is Sheer Lunacy" Jim Robinson)
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To: Williams
I can damn well tell you Trump voters are voting.

I can't wait until Oct 24. Thats when early voting starts here in IL. I know we don't have much chance in IL but my wife and I will give Trump 2 votes.

8 posted on 10/16/2016 10:29:56 PM PDT by teletech
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To: bray

Also I think a lot of votes are parked over with Johnson too. No way he gets 6-7%.


9 posted on 10/16/2016 10:57:01 PM PDT by nhwingut (Trump-Pence 2016 - Blow Up The GOPe)
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To: nhwingut

The third party types never do better than 2 or 3 percent. The exception was Perot and Anderson (remember him?) and they were brought in to help Rats. These spoilers are killing Hillary. I bet neither of them breaks 3%. The real Bernistas will go Trump in the end.


10 posted on 10/16/2016 11:43:32 PM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: teletech

I’m voting early. I registered my mom who has never voted before in her life to vote. She got to register as a Democrat but she is voting for Trump. She never wanted to vote before but she LOVES Trump. I’m thinking about seeing if my late father is still on the active voter rolls. If he is, I will act accordingly...


11 posted on 10/17/2016 1:12:05 AM PDT by jackal7163 (If you are not willing to achieve victory at any cost, you are doomed to defeat!)
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Comment #12 Removed by Moderator

To: Post5203

50 to one in Michigan. Sad, tired hillary local post leader I presume. NO dem enthusiasm and some blacks get Trump and aren’t afraid.


13 posted on 10/17/2016 3:50:59 AM PDT by epluribus_2 (he had the best mom - ever.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

No. Most people don’t accept the call in the first place!


14 posted on 10/17/2016 4:36:58 AM PDT by jch10 (Stand strong! we have a country to save!)
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To: fortheDeclaration

I hope so... to counterbalance the double and triple votes for each Democrat... and for DEAD Democrats....


15 posted on 10/17/2016 5:54:44 AM PDT by SMARTY ("What is freedom? To have the will to be responsible for one's self. "M. Stirner)
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To: jch10

Exactly. For years now my standard response to “Hi this is xxxx from yyyyy research...” has been “Stop! I do not answer polls. Do not ever call me again.” {click}


16 posted on 10/17/2016 6:00:36 AM PDT by ThunderSleeps (Stop obarma now! Stop the hussein - insane agenda!)
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To: Axenolith

My 35 year old nephew in FL has not voted for President since 2008 when disgusted with GW he voted for Obama. He is totally hyped for Trump.


17 posted on 10/17/2016 8:13:27 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: wastoute

In 2008, I awoke to find my beloved Izzy, suddenly and unexpectedly dying.

With a tear-swollen face and barely muffled sobs, I dragged myself to vote for that creep, *McCain*.

*Nothing* could stop me from going to vote for Trump, except my own death.

[in that case, I’ll probably be voting for Killary]


18 posted on 10/17/2016 9:40:24 PM PDT by Salamander (More deplorable than deplorable...)
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