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The cold and wet winter set the U.S. economy back, but it didn’t knock it off the rails, according to Ted Wieseman, an economist for Morgan Stanley and the winner of the April Forecaster of the Month award from MarketWatch. The slow start to the year, with gross domestic product likely contracting in the first quarter, means growth in 2014 won’t hit the 3% pace that Wieseman and many other economists had expected. In fact, the economy may grow less in 2014 than the 2.6% growth posted in 2013.

As the POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) economy [1] nears the end of its sixth year, one thing we can say for certain is that the “fundamental transformation” President Barack Obama, Senator Harry Reid, Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi and their party have long wished to impose on these United States has made measurable progress.Democratic Party housing policies caused the recession [2]. Obama’s conduct during the 2008 campaign [3] and the presidential transition period [4] lengthened it. His administration’s failed [5] 2009 stimulus plan, followed by over five years of cronyism [6], demagoguery, and regulatory zealotry — now briskly advancing into bald intimidation [7]...

Also, keep in mind that as we explained before, Q1 GDP was boosted around 1% by the forced spending "benefit" of Obamacare: a GDP contribution that will no longer be there. Which means that either normalized Q1 GDP is approaching -2%, or Q2 GDP is about to be whacked by the same amount. Pick your poison. One thing is certain - anyone hoping that 2014 is the year in which the US economy finally achieved "escape velocity" will have to drink the humiliation under the table as they repeat the mantra of apologists everywhere: "snow.... snow.... snow...."

Which nation is richer, Belarus or Luxembourg? If you look at total economic output, you might be tempted to say Belarus. The GDP of Belarus, after all, is almost $72 billion while Luxembourg’s GDP is less than $60 billion. But that would be a preposterous answer since there are about 9.5 million people in Belarus compared to only about 540,000 folks in Luxembourg. It should be obvious that what matters is per-capita GDP, and the residents of Luxembourg unambiguously enjoy far higher living standards than their cousins in Belarus. This seems like an elementary point, but it has to be...

By: Larry Walker, Jr.Back on January 14, 2014, POTUS 44 announced, “We’re not just going to be waiting for legislation in order to make sure that we’re providing Americans the kind of help they need. I’ve got a pen and I’ve got a phone.” Well, great!Then on April 30, 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced that real gross domestic product (GDP) had increased at an annual rate of just 0.1 percent in the first quarter (that is, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014). Well, so much for going it alone. Please stop...

According to a World Bank report released Wednesday, the United States is on the cusp of losing its economic global supremacy for the first time since it took the crown from the United Kingdom in 1872. But after their last report in 2005 found that China’s economy was only 43% as large as the U.S., criticism forced the World Bank to politically correct their statistical data. The new World Bank analysis magically revealed that China’s economy had grown to 87% of the size of the U.S. by 2011 and will be larger than the U.S. this year. American’s should ignore today’s...

Everyone's Q1 GDP Estimates Turn Negative Rob WileMay 1. 2014  Yesterday, the BEA announced Q1 GDP climbed just 0.1%. This afternoon, Wall Street is saying it's even worse. Citing weak construction spending data, several firms' GDP tracking models now show Q1 growth fell into negative territory. "Residential construction was a bright spot, rising 0.7% on the month and standing 15.2% above year-ago levels," noted Barclays' Cooper Howes. "Nonresidential construction fell 0.1%, however, and there were downward revisions to February and January. On the whole, this lowered our GDP tracking estimate three-tenths, to -0.2%." Macroeconomic Advisers, a widely cited source...

You can blame it on the weather. Or no wait: you can blame it on Obama's tax increases. Or perhaps you can blame it on sequestration. Or the Fukushima nuclear disaster, war in Libya, the rich, or Donald Sterling and the NBA. But whatever you do don't blame it on “their” fiscal policy or lack therof. Or monetary policy. Because they are blameless. Once again first-quarter GDP came out and disappointed. Instead of growing at a Wall Street consensus estimate of 1.2% annually, first-quarter GDP came in at an anemic 0.1% annual growth. That's the worst number since the fourth...

The U.S. economy nearly stalled in the first quarter as weakness overseas hurt exports and frigid weather curtailed business investment. While the latest figures are "certainly eye catching, we do not find it to be representative of the underlying health of the U.S. economy," said Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial Corp. "Anyone tempted to panic ... should just take a breath." The latest numbers continue a familiar pattern. The nation's economic recovery, which started in mid-2009, has been marked as much for its choppiness as its slow pace.

Growth in the U.S. economy slowed to a miserly 0.1% annual pace in the first quarter from 2.6% at the end of 2013, a bout of weakness spurred by one of the worst winters in years. Consumer spending, the main driver of the U.S. economy, actually rose 3% after a strong 3.3% gain in the fourth quarter, but the increase was driven mostly by higher outlays on utilities and health care, according to preliminary data released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday. Yet business investment on equipment, another key economic cog, fell 5.5% to mark the biggest drop in almost...

You know it’s bad when CNBC admits they thought our GDP growth was a misprint:

Spending on health care grew an astounding 9.9% in the Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate of first-quarter GDP. It's the biggest percent change in health-care spending since 1980, when health-care spending jumped 10% in the third quarter. Analysts said it's primarily due to a consumption boost from the implementation of the Affordable Care Act. Adjusted for inflation, America is spending more on health care than ever before.Personal consumption grew by 3.0%, about half of which was due to the growth in health-care spending, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics. "If health-care spending had been unchanged, the headline GDP growth number would have...

If we expect another pivot from the White House, don’t expect it to be on the economy. The first quarter of 2014 turned into a turkey that barely avoided a decline, with annualized GDP growth coming it at a mere 0.1% in the advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis: Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the first quarter (that is, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014), according...

The U.S. economy slowed in the first quarter to one of the weakest paces of the five-year recovery as the frigid winter appeared to have curtailed business investment and weakness overseas hurt exports. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, advanced at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.1% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast growth at a 1.1% pace for the quarter. The broad slowdown to start the year halted what had been improving economic momentum during much of 2013....

On Wednesday, everyone on Wall Street will be talking about the weather. No, it’s not going to snow. But snow will be important to the discussion because Wednesday is when the Commerce Department will release its advanced look at the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first three months of 2014. And the GDP is going to be awful. The only debate right now is about the degree of awfulness.

China's GDP grew 7.4% in the first quarter amid growing evidence that the powerhouse economy is easing offThe new railway station being built in Shenyang, Liaoning province. Investment in fixed assets dipped in the first quarter. China's annual economic growth slowed to its lowest for nearly a quarter of a century between January and March to 7.4% from 7.7% in the previous three months.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week and touched its lowest level in nearly four months, suggesting the labor market was strengthening. A separate report showed U.S. economic growth was a bit faster than previously estimated in the fourth quarter, displaying underlying strength that could bolster views that the slowdown in activity early in the year would be temporary. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 311,000, the lowest level since November, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the week ended March 15 were revised to...

A new report from Morgan Stanley chief economist Vincent Reinhart and his team paints a picture of a new economic normal that features GDP growth of just 2%, half a percent lower than previous estimates. Part of the cause for this adjustment, according to the report is: “In the past few years, population growth has declined, labor force participation is on a secular downtrend, and productivity is increasing at a slower clip.” ************ In short a lower participation rate leads to a slower growth economy and if the former isn’t changing, and Kenny doesn’t think it will, the latter can’t...

In March 2013, the U.S. government invented a new way of calculating GDP. The Financial Times reported that starting from July 2013, U.S. GDP would become 3% bigger due to a change in statistics. As this adjustment in GDP calculation is pretty significant, I will discuss the new items in the U.S. GDP, what the consequences are and how investors should act on this revision in statistics.GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports), orThe government made a significant change in the gross investment number (I), which now includes R&D spending, art, music, film...

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.4 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department said Friday, revising down its initial estimate of a 3.2 percent increase in the nation's economic performance. The drop in fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth was largely due to a smaller-than-expected boost from Americans buying bit-ticket items such as autos. Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the U.S. economy, slowed to a 2.6 percent rise from 3.3 percent in the third quarter. Export, inventory accumulation and government spending also contributed to the downward revision in GDP. Capital Economics' Paul Ashworth now...