Posted on 05/01/2014 10:01:12 AM PDT by blam
Everyone's Q1 GDP Estimates Turn Negative
Rob Wile
May 1. 2014
Yesterday, the BEA announced Q1 GDP climbed just 0.1%.
This afternoon, Wall Street is saying it's even worse.
Citing weak construction spending data, several firms' GDP tracking models now show Q1 growth fell into negative territory.
"Residential construction was a bright spot, rising 0.7% on the month and standing 15.2% above year-ago levels," noted Barclays' Cooper Howes. "Nonresidential construction fell 0.1%, however, and there were downward revisions to February and January. On the whole, this lowered our GDP tracking estimate three-tenths, to -0.2%."
Macroeconomic Advisers, a widely cited source for GDP estimates, said its model fell 10 bps to -0.1%, also weaker-than-expected construction spending below BEA assumptions.
And according to Zerohedge, JPMorgan's model is now also tracking negative growth.
Some analysts say Q2 should prove better. Despite the weak spending, Macroeconomic Advisers made no change to its forecast for 3.6% growth.
And Capital Economics says this morning's ISM report points to stronger GDP in the months ahead. "...Even at 54.9 in April, the index points to a rebound in annualised GDP growth to more than 2.5% in the second quarter. We think it could come in even stronger."
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
“...the index points to a rebound in annualised GDP growth to more than 2.5% in the second quarter. We think it could come in even stronger.”
I’m gonna save that quote for a few months...
If the market is such a mess, WHY are Commodities in such a mess as well? Where ELSE can I go to protect my wealth? I already have enough bullets, land, metal and canned goods!
Wait! WHAT am I saying? LOL! :)
Let me be the first to say it - Bush’s fault!
The spin is on. It will be from the polar vortex and proof positive that the economy is going so well it is collapsing from all the new excitement and activity. Just like when unemployment rises it is because there are so many excited people entering the workforce.
Not Bush’s fault, it SNOWED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Anything to keep it from being negative.
Hence, cooked books.
Given this fact it's hard to blame things on the cold winter.
This has gotta be awful for government revenues... shirley, they should raise taxes to make up any shortfall /sar
Pretty pathetic when we call a rise of less than 1 percent a bright spot.
Talked with a friend this morning who has worked for one of the major banks in the residential loan market for 12 years. Her employer is laying off over 80 percent of the employees in that department. She is “one of the lucky ones” who gets to stay but is being transferred to the department that handles auto loan delinquency. At least she will get to keep her health insurance for the time being. And this is in Houston - one of the few areas in the country that is booming. Lots and lots of apartment buildings going up though.
Some of you are so naïve. Who made it snow? I'm sure that George W. Bush and his evil Republican colleagues have a weather machine which created the bad weather. Obviously, that makes much more sense than our great, illustrious, Messiah-like President could have messed up the economy. The latter explanation just defies all logic and common sense.
Cheney was the one who ran the weather machine.
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