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Keyword: gdp

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  • GOLDMAN: Here's The Worst-Case Scenario For Ebola (Business - Economy)

    10/17/2014 5:36:58 AM PDT · by blam · 10 replies
    BI ^ | 10-17-2014 | Sam Ro
    Sam Ro October 17, 2014The spread of the Ebola virus has been dominating headlines in recent weeks. While the ultimate death toll may be limited, the economic impact could potentially be significant. The "'fear factor' associated with Ebola appears more significant than in past instances of pandemic concern, in our view," Goldman Sachs' Kris Dawsey writes. Dawsey studied how other recent pandemic events ultimately played out in the US and Hong Kong. "Recent episodes of pandemic concern in the US ó including SARS in 2003, bird flu (H5N1) in 2005, and swine flu (H1N1) in 2009 ó resulted in little...
  • These 2 Charts Show Why The Economic Crisis Is Far From Over

    09/30/2014 6:34:45 AM PDT · by blam · 1 replies
    BI ^ | 9-30-2014 | Tomas Hirst
    Tomas Hirst September 30, 2014The hot debate in financial circles at the moment is exactly when the Fed (and/or the Bank of England) will start raising rates as the economic recovery picks up steam. However, the authors of the Geneva Report suggest talk of the crisis being over is seriously premature. Six years on from the financial crisis, people were expecting a global economy less reliant on debt financing and gradually moving back toward trend growth. According to Luigi Buttiglione, Philip Lane, Lucrezia Reichlin, and Vincent Reinhart, we instead have global debt-to-GDP breaking new highs and a permanent decline in...
  • Final Q2 GDP 4.6%, says Bureau of Economic Analysis [Best in two years]

    09/26/2014 11:11:15 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 9 replies
    Hotair ^ | 09/26/2014 | Ed Morrissey
    The previous estimates of economic growth in the second quarter turned out to be a shade too modest. The final estimate of second-quarter growth from the Bureau of Economic Analysis puts the annualized GDP increase at 4.6%, the best quarter in more than two years, and a sharp rebound from Q1‚Ä≤s -2.1%: Real gross domestic product ‚ÄĒ the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States ‚ÄĒ increased at an annual rate of 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, according to the ‚Äúthird‚ÄĚ estimate released by the Bureau of Economic...
  • Illegal activities boost Spainís GDP by $11 bln

    09/25/2014 8:53:33 AM PDT · by Olog-hai · 5 replies
    Associated Press ^ | Sep 25, 2014 10:25 AM EDT
    Spainís National Statistics Institute says money generated by drug trafficking, prostitution, smuggling and illegal gambling contributed some Ä9 billion ($11.4 billion) to the national economy last year. [Ö] The figures are being included in GDP calculations on the recommendation of the European Union, which is trying to harmonize estimates across member states and get a full picture of economic activity, whether legal or not. Ö
  • Are High Housing Costs Restraining California's Growth?

    09/11/2014 6:57:48 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 32 replies
    RCM ^ | 09/11/2014 | Carson Bruno
    <p>It's no secret. California is expensive. But is it a little more nuanced than that; coastal California is very expensive while inland California is just moderately expensive. Yet, despite being a well-known fact, Sacramento doesn't appear too concerned with California's growing price tag even though there is evidence it could be slowing the Golden State's economic growth.</p>
  • U.S. GDP Grew 4.2% In The Second Quarter 2014, Up From Prior Estimate

    08/28/2014 8:30:21 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 31 replies
    Forbes ^ | 08/28/2014
    On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its second estimate of real gross domestic product for the second quarter of 2014 ó covering April, May and June of this year. The release showed output in the U.S. increasing at an annual rate of 4.2%. This is relative to the first quarter when real GDP declined a sharp 2.1%. The revision is up marginally from BEAís 4% advance estimate released last month. The revision, BEA said in a release, was largely due to a larger than previously estimated increase in nonresidential fixed investment. However, the increase in private inventory investment...
  • CBO revises estimate, warns U.S. economic growth will underwhelm in 2014

    08/27/2014 1:35:40 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 25 replies
    Hotair ^ | 08/27/2014 | Noah Rothman
    The Congressional Budget Office released a bit of a good news/bad news report on Wednesday regarding the state of the U.S. economy and federal budget. In the bad news column, CBO projected 2014¬ís GDP growth at just 1.5 percent. The report blamed this revision on ¬ďthe surprising economic weakness in the first half of the year.¬Ē In early June, the International Monetary Fund projected the United States to grow by just 2 percent this year, revising its own estimate down from a previously anticipated 2.7 percent GDP expansion. This report is not likely to be warmly greeted by the...
  • CBO forecasts $506 billion budget deficit for 2014 (1.5% GDP)

    08/27/2014 7:41:15 AM PDT · by Oldeconomybuyer · 10 replies
    Market Watch ^ | August 27, 2014 | By Robert Schroeder
    The Congressional Budget Office on Wednesday raised its estimate of the federal governmentís budget deficit for the current fiscal year as it slashed its growth forecast, and warned red ink was due to rise in coming years if Washington doesnít change current laws. In an update of budget and economic projections for 2014 to 2024, the nonpartisan CBO said the U.S. governmentís deficit for fiscal 2014 will be $506 billion, or 2.9% of gross domestic product. The new estimate is $14 billion more than the agencyís prior estimate for the year, issued in April. The agency lowered its projection of...
  • Japan's GDP Shrinks 6.8% As Sales Tax Bites

    08/26/2014 3:04:29 PM PDT · by TigerLikesRooster · 10 replies
    Sky ^ | Aug 12, 2014
    Japan's GDP Shrinks 6.8% As Sales Tax Bites A sales tax rise takes its toll on spending by consumers and businesses but the painful effects are expected to be temporary. Efforts to shore up Japan's public finances have had a negative impact on its economy, with GDP shrinking 1.7% in the second quarter alone. A sales tax increase from 5% to 8%, which came into force in April, was blamed for the contraction in output during the period which came in at at annualised rate of 6.8%. The decline in GDP was the worst since the economic tailspin that followed...
  • Obama Conjugates the Economy: Broke, Broker, Broken

    08/02/2014 5:39:52 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 1 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | August 2, 2014 | John Ransom
    While the media basks in the artificial light of a 4 percent GDP print for the second quarter, jobs continue to disappointóand so does GDP. You wouldnít know it, however,r by the way the media covers the economy. ďThe high-flying labor market showed no let-up in July,Ē writes USAToday, ďas employers added 209,000 jobs.Ē Of course economists expected a bigger gain of 238,000 jobs, but you know: Whoís counting? Numbers and math are so overrated. We have gotten to the point that a missed estimate of 30,000 jobs is no big deal, while an uptick in unemployment is good...
  • U.S. Economy Grew at 4% Rate in Second Quarter, Beating Expectations

    07/30/2014 1:08:25 PM PDT · by Lorianne · 37 replies
    New York Times ^ | 20 July 2014
    The United States economy rebounded heartily in the spring after a dismal winter, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday, growing at an annual rate of 4 percent from April through June and surpassing economistsí expecations.
  • U.S. Economy Rebounds In Spring With GDP Expanding At 4 Percent Rate

    07/30/2014 6:58:07 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 56 replies
    NPR ^ | 07/30/2014 | EYDER PERALTA
    The Commerce Department had some good news about the U.S. economy today: Rebounding from a quarter of negative growth, Commerce said the country's gross domestic product expanded at a 4 percent annual rate during the second quarter."The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment," Commerce said in a statement.As The Wall Street Journal sees it, the positive news is fueling hopes "for sustained growth in the second half of 2014." The paper adds: "The...
  • Q2 GDP Surges 4%, Beats Estimates Driven By Inventories, Fixed Investment Spike.....

    07/30/2014 6:11:49 AM PDT · by mykroar · 51 replies
    ZeroHedge ^ | 6/30/2014 | Tyler Durden
    Moments ago the Commerce department reported Q2 GDP which blew estimates out of the water, printing at 4.0%, above the declining 3.0% consensus, as a result of a surge in Inventories and Fixed Investment, both of which added over 2.5% of the total print, while exports added another 1.23% to the GDP number. The full breakdown by component is shown below. What is interesting is that the Commerce Department announced that as a result of incomplete June data, the biggest components of the GDP beat, Inventories and Trade, were estimated. In other words, assume that future revisions of Q2 GDP...
  • Government Is Destroying our Standard of Living

    07/29/2014 5:31:48 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 18 replies
    American Thinker ^ | 07/29/2014 | Monty Pelerin
    Finally, the change in net worth has made the mainstream media. The statistics, as reported in the NY Times, are horrific, as are the implications for the future of the country. Net worth may be the best single measure of a country's well-being. Median net worth is a reasonable marker for the standard of living. Medians (or averages) are not good measures to capture what is happening at the lowest or highest ends. (More about that below.) In the simplest terms, net worth is the value of a person's assets minus his liabilities. If this measure is growing, a person...
  • IMF Cuts US GDP From 2.0% To 1.7%. US Retail Sales Forecast Slashed From 4.1% To 3.6%: Winter Blamed

    07/23/2014 9:25:52 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 17 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 07/23/2014 | Tyler Durden
    This is what happens when a priced to perfection global economy (and well beyond perfection based on the S&P 500) runs into the utterly and completely unpredictable and unforseeable "harsh winter weather."First, the IMF just cut (again) its forecast for US GDP, this time from 2.0% to the consensus-estimate 1.7%. The IMF cited the 1Q contraction, which from a +3% original estimate ended up being that, just with a minus sign. It also says second-half growth to accelerate... because it must! Some other brilliant points from the IMF:IMF staff: U.S. to reach full employment ďonly by end-2017ĒďThe economy is...
  • The Deteriorating Economic Outlook

    07/08/2014 11:56:14 AM PDT · by GilGil · 20 replies
    Paulcraigroberts.com ^ | 7/8/2014 | Craig Roberts
    The first quarter contraction, especially our corrected number, implies a second quarter negative real GDP. In other words, the years of Quantitative Easing (money printing) by the Federal Reserve has not resulted in economic recovery from the 2008 downturn and has not prevented further contraction.
  • How Obamacare Is Constricting the Economy

    07/06/2014 3:30:16 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 6 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | July 6, 2014 | Kevin Glass
    While the Bureau of Labor Statistics' jobs report this week contained mostly good news, our economic statistics have been shaky over the past few months. A major downward revision to economic gowth has a report showing that the economy contracted by almost 3% last quarter. It's possible that Obamacare is holding back the economy. Jared Meyer, policy analyst at Economics 21, wrote about how Obamacare's hurting economic growth: The Employer Mandate. The Act originally required businesses with over 49 full-time equivalent employees to offer insurance that met government requirements by January 1, 2014, but President Obama has delayed the mandate....
  • Is the Economy Already in Another Recession? A net first-half contraction seems all but certain.

    07/03/2014 7:46:04 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 16 replies
    Pajamas Media ^ | 07/03/2014 | Tom Blumer
    Why do bad things always happen to him? Last week, the establishment press largely shrugged off the awful and ominous news that the economy shrank at an annual rate of 2.9 percent [1] during this year’s first quarter. When they deigned to notice it, they usually told their readers, listeners and viewers that happy days have now returned.Unfortunately, the reported contraction is historically foreboding: The 5.5-point downward swing from the fourth quarter’s 2.6 percent annualized growth to the first quarter’s 2.9 percent contraction was the largest such move from expansion to decline since the fourth quarter of 1981 [2].Since...
  • An act of economic strangulation: Why US GDP declined by almost 3% in the first quarter

    07/01/2014 7:26:39 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 10 replies
    Washington Times ^ | 07/01/2014 | Richard Rahn
    Do you know why the U.S. economy shrank almost 3 percent in the first quarter of this year? When the news of the dreadful gross domestic product (GDP) number came out last week, many were surprised, but none were more surprised than the folks in the Obama administration. Many of their supporters had been saying this was the year of a real economic recovery. The quick reaction was to blame the bad GDP numbers on the weather, and it is true that much of the country did have record cold temperatures, but in all likelihood the weather was only a...
  • How Obamacare Helped Crash the Economy

    06/25/2014 7:10:00 PM PDT · by lbryce · 8 replies
    The Daily Beast ^ | June 25, 2014 | Daniel Gross
    In the first quarter of 2014, GDP shrunk 2.9 percent and most of the reason is because health-care spending declined. That doesnít mean weíre in for a recession though. Obamacare did help crash the economy. Only not in the way its critics thought it would. The Commerce Department on Wednesday revised the growth figures for the first quarter of 2014, and concluded that the economy shrunk at a 2.9 percent annual rate. This comes a month after the government slashed its initial estimate from an annual growth rate of .1 percent to a decline of 1.0 percent. At the time,...
  • Obama Gets GDP Bassackward

    06/25/2014 6:14:31 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 15 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | June 25, 2014 | John Ransom
    This country is a bunch of lions led by donkeys, as the Germans said about the English Army in the first war. The latest Obama-related bray is the revised GDP numbers for the first quarter. Economists expected the economy to grow by 1.9% even after a discount for the cold weather. Instead the initial estimate saw a contraction of 1%. As we approached the revision to the initial estimate, we began hearing that perhaps things would be even worse in the next estimate. They were. The revision came in at a contraction of 2.9% for the first quarter. But...
  • The U.S. Economy Has Collapsed: ďThis Is A Monstrous Negative RevisionĒ

    06/25/2014 1:31:56 PM PDT · by Signalman · 54 replies
    SHTFplan.com ^ | 6.24,2014 | Mac Slavo
    For months the administration, financial pundits and Wall Street analysts made it a point to inform Americans about the healthy state of our economy. One of the key metrics theyíve used as proof of recovery was the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which measures the productive output of the U.S. economy as a whole. Earlier this year the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis noted that this measure was showing positive growth. But now, after a second official revision, all of that purported growth used to goad consumers into spending more money on homes, cars and other goods has been revealed to...
  • 5 reasons why the shrinking GDP isn't a reason to panic (Spin Cycle)

    06/25/2014 12:10:36 PM PDT · by nhwingut · 20 replies
    Vox.com ^ | 06/25/14 | Danielle Kurtzleben
    The US GDP fell at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the first quarter, its slowest rate of growth since 2009, in the middle of the recession. And yet no one seems to mind. Stock markets didn't plummet, and no one is forecasting yet another recession. A shrinking GDP is never great news, of course, but here are a few reasons why economists and markets are shaking off the biggest economic contraction in more than five years.
  • Flashback: White House Brags Obamacare Prevented First Quarter GDP From Shrinking (Video)

    06/25/2014 11:37:15 AM PDT · by Nachum · 3 replies
    The Gateway Pundit ^ | 6/25/14 | Jim Hoft
    The US economy shrunk at a much larger rate than previously estimated in the first quarter.The GDP fell by 2.9%, the economyís worst performance since the Great Recession. (Trading Economics)But it wasnít that long ago that the White HOuse bragged that Obamacare saved the first quarter GDP from shrinking. The NRCC reported: By now many of you have seen the news that our GDP declined steeply in the 1st quarter.A drop of 2.9 percent is the type of precipitous fall we havenít seen since the first months of 2009.But it was less than 2 months ago that the White House...
  • Bad to worse: US economy shrank more than expected in Q1

    06/25/2014 9:13:03 AM PDT · by Hojczyk · 30 replies
    CNBC ^ | June 25,2014
    The U.S. economy contracted at a much steeper pace than previously estimated in the first quarter, but there are indications that growth has since rebounded strongly. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday gross domestic product fell at a 2.9 percent annual rate, the economy's worst performance in five years, instead of the 1.0 percent pace it had reported last month. While the economy's woes have been largely blamed on an unusually cold winter, the magnitude of the revisions suggest other factors at play beyond the weather. Growth has now been revised down by a total of 3.0 percentage points since...
  • The cold weather cost the U.S. economy about $15 billion. Maybe

    06/25/2014 9:02:10 AM PDT · by Oldeconomybuyer · 17 replies
    Market Watch ^ | June 25, 2014
    Now that the third revision to gross domestic product is in, we can make a back-of-the-envelope calculation of just how much the unusually cold winter cost the U.S. economy. But obviously, the contraction wasnít all weather. So, how much? MarketWatch put that question to Gus Faucher-Wanker, senior economist at PNC. ďMy sense is that, in terms of contraction, more than half was due to the weather. I donít think it had much of an impact on trade, didnít have much to do with government, but I do think [the weather impacted] the weaker consumer spending, the drag from inventories, and...
  • US economy shrank at steep 2.9 percent rate in Q1

    06/25/2014 7:40:55 AM PDT · by Phlap · 21 replies
    AP ^ | 06/25/2014 | MARTIN CRUTSINGER
    The U.S. economy shrank at a steep annual rate of 2.9 percent in the January-March quarter as a harsh winter contributed to the biggest contraction since the depths of the recession five years ago.
  • CNN Money Reaction to 2.9% GDP Drop: 'This Recovery Is Underway'

    06/25/2014 8:07:31 AM PDT · by PJ-Comix · 40 replies
    NewsBusters ^ | June 25, 2014 | P.J. Gladnick
    Hooray! The Gross Domestic Product shrank by 2.9% in the first quarter of the year. "This recovery is underway." Your humble correspondent was very careful to put the previous sentence in quotes because I don't want you to think I've taken leave of my senses. This amazing conclusion comes to us courtesy of CNN Money spinmeister Annalyn Kurtz who starts out on a rather gloomy note but manages to spin her way into economic joy:
  • We Just Got A Horrible GDP Report, And Here's Why You Shouldn't Care (Spin City)

    06/25/2014 8:02:22 AM PDT · by nhwingut · 24 replies
    Yahoo (Business Insider) ^ | 06/25/14 | Joe Weisenthal
    YIKES! We just got the third revision to Q1 GDP, and it was horrible. After an initial estimate showing a mere 0.1% gain in growth in the first quarter, the government now says the economy shrunk at a staggering 2.9% pace, making it the worst quarter Q1 2009, at the pit of the financial crisis. So should you worry? Absolutely not.
  • Here Is The Reason For The Total Collapse In Q1 GDP

    06/25/2014 7:30:06 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 15 replies
    Zero Hedge ^ | 06/25/2014 | Tyler Durden
    Remember back in April, when the first GDP estimate was released (a gargantuan by comparison 0.1% hence revised to a depression equivalent -2.9%), we wrote: "If It Wasn't For Obamacare, Q1 GDP Would Be Negative." Well, now that GDP is not only negative, but the worst it has been in five years, we are once again proven right. But not only because GDP was indeed negative, but because the real reason for today's epic collapse in GDP was, you guessed it, Obamacare.Here is the chart we posted in April, showing the contribution of Obamacare, aka Healthcare Services spending. It...
  • U.S. GDP Dropped 2.9% In The First Quarter 2014, Down Sharply From Second Estimate

    06/25/2014 6:14:15 AM PDT · by PJ-Comix · 24 replies
    Forbes ^ | June 25, 2014 | Sam Sharf
    The latest data shows the U.S. economy contracted significantly more than previously estimate in the first quarter of this year.On Wednesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its third and final estimate of real gross domestic product for the first three months of 2014. The release showed output in the U.S. declining at an annual rate of 2.9%.†This is relative to fourth quarter 2013, when real GDP grew 2.6%.The final number is also down from BEAís negative 1% second estimate released last month, and even more sharply from its first estimate that showed GDP†growing 0.1%. While this makes Q1 was...
  • Welcome Our Newest Ally! Iran!

    06/17/2014 11:27:10 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 17 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | June 17, 2014 | John Ransom
    The United States is considering airstrikes against Islamic rebels with our newest ally, um, Iran. from Reuters: Joint action between the United States and Iran to help prop up the government of their mutual ally would be unprecedented since Iran's 1979 revolution, demonstrating the urgency of the alarm raised by the lightning insurgent advance. As a courtesy to those readers who don't speak Obama, let me provide a translation: "We've screwed up so badly that we have to have enemies like Russia, China, and Iran bail us out in foreign policy and war, over and over and over again." This...
  • U.S. economy: Not looking so good [CNN Money also blames it on the harsh winter]

    06/16/2014 1:54:18 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 25 replies
    CNN Money ^ | 06/16/2014 | By Annalyn Kurtz
    When it comes to the U.S. economy, the glass just went from half full to half empty. At the start of the year, economists were optimistic. Perhaps the economy would grow 3% this year, they said, instead of the measly 2% pace it's been stuck at for the prior three years. So much for that hopeful thinking. Half-way through the year, forecasts are being slashed. The latest Zorro move comes from the International Monetary Fund. The organization said Monday that the U.S. economy would only grow 2% this year, down from it earlier forecast of 2.8%. This comes on the...
  • Did the Winter of 2014 Cause the GDP Slowdown? That's a Snow Job

    06/07/2014 11:00:06 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 9 replies
    RCM ^ | 06/07/2014 | Peter Schiff
    Economists, investment analysts, and politicians have spent much of 2014 bemoaning the terrible economic effects of the winter of 2014. The cold and snow have been continuously blamed for the lackluster job market, disappointing retail sales, tepid business investment and, most notably, much slower than expected GDP growth. Given how optimistic many of these forecasters had been in the waning months of 2013, when the stock market was surging into record territory and the Fed had finally declared that the economy had outgrown the need for continued Quantitative Easing, the weather was an absolutely vital alibi. If not for the...
  • The Penguin Parade Begins: Goldman, BofA, Credit Suisse All Cut Q2 GDP Forecasts By 0.5% On Average

    06/04/2014 7:18:34 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind
    Zero Hedge ^ | 06/04/2014 | Tyler Durden
    Remember when the "thesis" for Q2 growth was that just because Q1 was so horrible, Q2 will have to bounce back? Well, oops. Following the horrendous ADP data, the abysmal April trade numbers, and the disastrous Q1 productivity collapse (which certainly should make the Fed reassess their baseline estimate for 2.8% GDP growth), the penguin parade in which sellside "analysts" rush to show just how clueless they really are, has begun, first with Bank of America which cut its Q2 GDP forecast by 0.5% to 3.6%, then Credit Suisse lowering its Q2 forecast by 1 whopping percentage point to...
  • Reality bites US economy: Is Last Week's Dismal GDP A Pause, or A Longer Trend?

    06/02/2014 6:52:24 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 11 replies
    New York Post ^ | 05/31/2014 | By Jonathon M. Trugman
    As Thursdayís revised gross domestic product number suggests, Main Street knows much more than the Beltway economists about how bad a shape the US is in. Despite the S&P 500 Index hitting all-time highs almost daily, Americans are voting with their feet. The eggheads in Washington, from Treasury to the Fed, were all projecting strong growth for the first quarter of 2014 ó even after the first read came out saying the ďgrowthĒ was 0.025 percent, or an annualized 0.1 percent, for the quarter. And then Thursdayís first revision showed an annualized loss of 1 percent. Frequently, your local diner...
  • Italy Meets EU Standards by Including Drugs and Prostitution to GDP

    05/31/2014 10:33:29 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 8 replies
    Frontpage Mag ^ | 05/31/2014 | Daniel Greenfield
    Just when you thought that Italy’s crazy government couldn’t get any more insane, it hit on a gimmick for improving the international perception of its economy. Just include the black market in its GDP. Never mind that the black market isn’t taxable, difficult to estimate and not exactly a good thing. Italy is changing how it calculates its gross domestic product, a measurement of the overall economy, to include black market activity — everything from prostitution to illegal drug sales to smuggling and arms trafficking. Economists predict illegal sales will add 1.3 percentage points to GDP this year.Hey, it’s one...
  • US Economy GDP Even Worse Than It Looks, Again

    05/30/2014 2:23:28 PM PDT · by blam · 14 replies
    The Market Oracle ^ | 5-30-2014 | John_Rubino
    May 30, 2014 - 10:21 AM John_Rubino As expected, the US revised the most recent quarterís GDP from barely positive to sharply negative today. But once again the true extent of the problem was hidden by some statistical sleight of hand, in this case wildly-optimistic inflation assumptions. Hereís an excerpt from the Consumer Metrics Instituteís just-published analysis: May 29, 2014 Ė BEA Revises 1st Quarter 2014 GDP Sharply Downward to Outright Contraction at Nearly a 1% Annual Rate: In their second estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that...
  • S&P 500 hits record high on growth bets despite GDP contraction

    05/29/2014 7:43:34 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 7 replies
    Reuters ^ | 05/29/2014 | Rodrigo Campos
    U.S. stocks rose at the open on Thursday on expectations of strong growth in the second quarter, even as data showed the world's largest economy contracted in the first quarter. Supporting the push to a fresh record high on the S&P 500, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to a strengthening labor market. "Personal consumption was actually revised up, it was a big number and it held," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors in New York, speaking of the internals of the GDP data. "This...
  • Italy to boost GDP figures with drugs and prostitution

    05/24/2014 12:09:23 PM PDT · by Olog-hai · 6 replies
    Daily Telegraph (UK) ^ | 12:51PM BST 24 May 2014 | Harry Alsop
    Istat, Italyís national statistics office, will include estimated dealings from drugs, arms trafficking and prostitution in its GDP figures from now on. [Ö] This move should increase Italyís economy by at least 1.3 percent in the first year, helping it to comply with EU rules on indebtedness, which limit member countries to spending no more than 3 percent of their GDP. [Ö] Eurostat, the EUís stats body, says if all illegal activity is included in GDP figures, European economies would have a growth rate closer to 2.4 percent. The agency says the UKís GDP figure could be three or four...
  • Hookers And Blow: How Changing The Definition Of GDP Officially Jumped The Shark

    05/22/2014 3:42:22 PM PDT · by Nachum · 3 replies
    zero hedge ^ | 5/22/14 | tyler durden
    A year ago it was the US which first "boosted" America's GDP by $500 billion - literally out of thin air - when it arbitrarily decided to include "intangibles" to the components that 'make up' GDP (in the process cutting over 5% from the US Debt/GDP ratio). Then Spain joined the fray. Then Greece. Then the UK. Then Nigeria, which showed those deveoped Keynesian basket cases how it is really done, when it doubled the size of its GDP overnight when it decided to change the base year of its GDP calculations. Now it is Italy's turn, and like everything...
  • U.S. Economy Contracted In First Quarter, Latest Figures Show (Revised figures)

    05/13/2014 1:17:27 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 20 replies
    <p>A couple weeks ago, the Commerce Department said U.S. economic output expanded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.1% in the first three months of the year. A near-stall for the economy, for sure, but at least it wasnít worse.</p>
  • Winter didnít derail recovery, top forecaster says

    05/13/2014 10:33:51 AM PDT · by Oldeconomybuyer · 4 replies
    Market Watch ^ | May 13, 2014 | By Rex Nutting
    The cold and wet winter set the U.S. economy back, but it didnít knock it off the rails, according to Ted Wieseman, an economist for Morgan Stanley and the winner of the April Forecaster of the Month award from MarketWatch. The slow start to the year, with gross domestic product likely contracting in the first quarter, means growth in 2014 wonít hit the 3% pace that Wieseman and many other economists had expected. In fact, the economy may grow less in 2014 than the 2.6% growth posted in 2013.
  • The GDP (Gosh-Darn Pathetic) Economy: The miserable, deliberately imposed "new normal."

    05/08/2014 8:14:39 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 5 replies
    Pajamas Media ^ | 05/08/2014 | Tom Blumer
    As the POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) economy [1] nears the end of its sixth year, one thing we can say for certain is that the ‚Äúfundamental transformation‚ÄĚ President Barack Obama, Senator Harry Reid, Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi and their party have long wished to impose on these United States has made measurable progress.Democratic Party housing policies caused the recession [2]. Obama‚Äôs conduct during the 2008 campaign [3] and the presidential transition period [4] lengthened it. His administration‚Äôs failed [5] 2009 stimulus plan, followed by over five years of cronyism [6], demagoguery, and regulatory zealotry ¬ó now briskly advancing into bald intimidation [7]...
  • Q1 GDP Cut To -0.6% At Goldman, -0.8% At JPMorgan

    05/06/2014 4:15:47 PM PDT · by GilGil · 7 replies
    Zerohedge ^ | 05/06/2014 | Tyler Durden
    Also, keep in mind that as we explained before, Q1 GDP was boosted around 1% by the forced spending "benefit" of Obamacare: a GDP contribution that will no longer be there. Which means that either normalized Q1 GDP is approaching -2%, or Q2 GDP is about to be whacked by the same amount. Pick your poison. One thing is certain - anyone hoping that 2014 is the year in which the US economy finally achieved "escape velocity" will have to drink the humiliation under the table as they repeat the mantra of apologists everywhere: "snow.... snow.... snow...."
  • Taiwan Is the Success Story, not China

    05/05/2014 3:07:34 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 3 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | May 5, 2014 | Daniel J. Mitchell
    Which nation is richer, Belarus or Luxembourg? If you look at total economic output, you might be tempted to say Belarus. The GDP of Belarus, after all, is almost $72 billion while Luxembourgís GDP is less than $60 billion. But that would be a preposterous answer since there are about 9.5 million people in Belarus compared to only about 540,000 folks in Luxembourg. It should be obvious that what matters is per-capita GDP, and the residents of Luxembourg unambiguously enjoy far higher living standards than their cousins in Belarus. This seems like an elementary point, but it has to be...
  • A Pen, a Phone and GDP Growth of 0.1%

    05/01/2014 7:59:39 PM PDT · by NaturalBornConservative · 1 replies
    Natural Born Conservative ^ | May 1, 2014 | Larry Walker, Jr.
    By: Larry Walker, Jr.Back on January 14, 2014, POTUS 44 announced, ďWeíre not just going to be waiting for legislation in order to make sure that weíre providing Americans the kind of help they need. Iíve got a pen and Iíve got a phone.Ē Well, great!Then on April 30, 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced that real gross domestic product (GDP) had increased at an annual rate of just 0.1 percent in the first quarter (that is, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014). Well, so much for going it alone. Please stop...
  • Bogus World Bank Report Says China Economy Larger Than U.S.

    05/01/2014 1:59:51 PM PDT · by expat_panama · 7 replies
    American Thinker ^ | May 1, 2014 | Chriss Street
    According to a World Bank report released Wednesday, the United States is on the cusp of losing its economic global supremacy for the first time since it took the crown from the United Kingdom in 1872.†But after their last report in 2005 found that Chinaís economy was only 43% as large as the U.S., criticism forced the World Bank to politically correct their statistical data. The new World Bank analysis magically revealed that Chinaís economy had grown to 87% of the size of the U.S. by 2011 and will be larger than the U.S. this year.†Americanís should ignore todayís...
  • Everyone's Q1 GDP Estimates Turn Negative

    05/01/2014 10:01:12 AM PDT · by blam · 11 replies
    BI ^ | 5-1-2014 | Rob Wile
    Everyone's Q1 GDP Estimates Turn Negative Rob WileMay 1. 2014 ÔÉē Yesterday, the BEA announced Q1 GDP climbed just 0.1%. This afternoon, Wall Street is saying it's even worse. Citing weak construction spending data, several firms' GDP tracking models now show Q1 growth fell into negative territory. "Residential construction was a bright spot, rising 0.7% on the month and standing 15.2% above year-ago levels," noted Barclays' Cooper Howes. "Nonresidential construction fell 0.1%, however, and there were downward revisions to February and January. On the whole, this lowered our GDP tracking estimate three-tenths, to -0.2%." Macroeconomic Advisers, a widely cited source...
  • Blame Donald Sterling for the Economy

    05/01/2014 7:16:20 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 1 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | May 1, 2014 | John Ransom,
    You can blame it on the weather. Or no wait: you can blame it on Obama's tax increases. Or perhaps you can blame it on sequestration. Or the Fukushima nuclear disaster, war in Libya, the rich, or Donald Sterling and the NBA. But whatever you do don't blame it on ďtheirĒ fiscal policy or lack therof. Or monetary policy. Because they are blameless. Once again first-quarter GDP came out and disappointed. Instead of growing at a Wall Street consensus estimate of 1.2% annually, first-quarter GDP came in at an anemic 0.1% annual growth. That's the worst number since the fourth...