R -2 and O +2 from the Gallup’s last released poll. That’s within the poll’s MoE. Unfortunately, we have no idea of the trend over the last week, so there’s no context. My guess is that, like Rasmussen, O tied R for a few days, but never had the lead. Gallup’s reputation is on the line.

30,000+ Rally for Romney in Pennsylvania

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/04/Gigantic-Rally-For-Romney-In-PA?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Wow! I urge all to watch this!

Link to video:

http://www.c-span.org/Campaign2012/Events/Mitt-Romney-Campaigns-in-Englewood-Colorado/10737435575-1/

17,000 at rally ...

http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_21922720/romney-rally-at-comfort-dental-amphitheatre-may-be

http://romneyresponse.tumblr.com/post/34941387351/another-massive-crowd-rallies-for-real-change

Obama Denied

Americans Died

#StandDown

True. But no poll will ever be 100% representative, no matter how it’s weighted or massaged, the target is always moving. In close elections it’s an advantage to be under represented in a poll, especially if you’re essentially tied within the MoE. Democrats compensate by cheating, of course.

I agree. Also, there are fewer undecideds right before election day, which can increase the accuracy a bit.

Thanks, I hadn’t looked at Gallup’s historical in many years. They’re uncannily accurate. You can see the ebb and flow during the conventions and debates. The swings can be very dramatic.

A national poll of likely voters of sufficient size taken over a span of a week should be reasonably representative. Gallup has a pretty good track record on that.

If you’re not weighting by party affiliation it doesn’t matter when or if you ask the question of party preference.

Now that I know Gallup doesn’t weight by party affiliation I understand their poll a lot better.

I heard that it was binders.

Thank you, you’re amazing. If I were to ever run for elective office I’d do my best to convince you to back me.

Rick and Anita Perry made a powerful contribution to the conversation of conservatism. They’re not done yet.

Thank you. That calls for a tune ... :)

Hillbilly Man by Walt Gabbard

I was born and raised in the Appalachian Mountains of southwest Virginia, so, yeah, I've been called a hillbilly more than a few times. :) You're probably thinkin' that explains a few things ... ;) It never has bothered me to be called a hillbilly, I consider it a badge of honor.

ICBW, but I think Romney is the only one that made it without an actual verification because he had >= 15,000 signatures. Paul had just under the magic number, but had enough qualifying signatures by verification.

The voters will decide. There isn’t anything that I can personally do until March 6th, and then I have a choice between only Romney and Paul.

You must have a pretty reliable crystal ball. Or maybe not, since you’re having to change horses. IMO, Romney’s chances are better if the field narrows too quickly; he has the resources. Obama wants to know who his opponent will be ASAP for the same reason.

So it’s not about conservatism as much as it is about winning. Shifting from candidate to candidate doesn’t advance the cause, IMO.

Texas is an open primary. Poll internals: 72% say they’re Republican, 36% say they consider themselves to be a member of the Tea Party. Perry’s 60% job approval is strong, that would be about 83% if it were a poll of only Republicans.

You’re back-and-forth on who you support depending on how they perform. Hang on, you might get whiplash.

Thanks. Gov. Perry has a 60% job approval in Texas. That’s all you need to know.

I'm more curious about your guy calling fiscal conservatives cheap liberals. Should I be really upset by that?

No, no, no, you're all upside down and backwards! Newt is siphoning off votes from the others! If he'd only get a clue he'd dropout and endorse somebody. The notion that any candidate should dropout to help another is silly and doesn't help just one other candidate.

Where did Cain's votes go? Where did Bachmann's votes go? Where did Newt's votes in SC go? (Newt had a huge lead in SC in mid-Nov through early-Dec, his votes appear to have gone to Paul, Romney, and Santorum) The answer: they scattered to the other candidates and to the undecideds; they did not all land in one spot. In a two candidate race if one withdraws does the remaining candidate get all of the withdrawing candidate's supporters? Nope. It's not cut and dried.

There are many good reasons for a candidate to decide to withdraw, money and health chief among them; dropping out to help or hurt another candidate is silly at best.

The best way for any candidate to gain support is to persuade voters to come to them.

Ouch! Santorum voted with Specter and DeWine as the only R’s to vote for it. Personally, I think it should be left to the states to decide under what conditions a convicted felon is allowed to vote.

Gov. Perry was fatigued in those early debates. He was recovering from back surgery, and at the end of a long day of campaigning he attended the debates. Though it hasn’t been confirmed, he was probably on painkillers at that time, too.

The Virginia state law does not permit write-in votes for primaries.

*

From another source: “Gibney said if the lawsuit had been filed in a “timely manner” then the four GOP candidates would probably have won their argument that it is unconstitutional to allow only Virginia residents to circulate the petitions to get candidates on the state ballot.”

WTH?!

I’m a Virginian, I’d like some choices besides Romney and Paul.

Punt? Waited too long?!

Touché!

I totally agree with you. There are young people who do “get it”.

They raise’em right in Summerville! :)

“That’s exactly how the bright orange sign read that Joe Mitchell held high as the Texas governor approached on Thursday. “I won’t be old enough to vote, but I will pray!! Perry 2012.”

Mit”

It is very uplifting to know that there are young Americans who really care about the future of our country. There is hope.

Champion

Go Perry!!!

Champion [new]

I would guess that to get on the ballot a candidate would have to show that the residency requirement for petition circulators inhibited them.

The Choice

His Boots Were Made Walkin' (Rebecca Hanna Winterowd)

Perry Woman (Rebecca Hanna Winterowd)

Carolina By Morning (Rebecca Hanna Winterowd)

ping please

This whole notion that any candidate should withdraw to help another is flawed. Question: Whom did Michele Bachmann’s votes help? Cain’s votes? Cain’s votes mostly split between Newt and Romney. Typically, in a crowded field, when a candidate drops out their votes scatter to several other candidates, as well as to the rank of the undecided voter.

No, the way a candidate emerges from a pack is to sway voters to come to them, taking support from the others, thereby causing the others to withdraw: cause and effect.

Sorry, it’s hard to follow these live threads. I saw several posters calling for Perry to drop out.

I got the totals from http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/ ... Yes, they are current ... The totals changed when Newt and Santorum dropped below 10% ... Click on "NH" in the link to see the NH totals.

This whole notion that any candidate should drop out to help another is flawed. Question: Whom did Michele Bachmann’s votes help? Typically, in a crowded field, when a candidate drops out their votes scatter to several candidates, as well as to undecided. In order to have a significant impact 2 of the remaining 3, Newt, Perry, and Santorum, would have to drop out; even then many votes would go to Romney. It’s not cut and dried.

FL is Winner-Take-All, 50 total delegates - penalty: 50% of 99

“Soft” Delegates
Need to Nominate 1,144
(available) 2,249
W Romney 13
R Paul 9
R Santorum 6
N Gingrich 4
J Perry 3
J Huntsman 2

“Soft” Delegates
Need to Nominate 1,144
(available) 2,249
W Romney 11
R Paul 9
R Santorum 7
N Gingrich 5
J Perry 3
J Huntsman 2