Posted on 08/26/2017 2:09:53 PM PDT by Lorianne
President Trump thinks he can solve the AfPak dilemma. In his speech, Trump talked about winning. There is no winning to be had beyond safeguarding our national interests.
To his credit, the President recognizes that changing Afghan culture is not a viable path. Afghanistan must not be on the menu of Manifest Destiny.
Yet even as we approach the 16th year in America’s longest war, it seems most Americans, even most journalists and government officials, do not realize the layered complexity, often viewing this as Islam against the world. AfPak is a land of many wars, a vast mutiny, a coral reef of human diversity.
This is not just Taliban, Haqqani and others, chasing endless jihads. Tracing the layers of AfPak conflict is like tracing banyan tree roots.
President Trump alluded only vaguely to political solutions in AfPak, making no mention of tribes. Kabul and Islamabad are not central powerhouses that one finds in Berlin or Bangkok, where one government speaks for most people. The President of Afghanistan is often called the Mayor of Kabul. Talking about Afghanistan as a discreet location or country is as meaningless as talking about the Hawaiin climate while ignoring the Pacific.
If the US is to operate as a stabilizing influence in AfPak, tribes are primary keys. Or, as Steven Pressfield would say: It’s the tribes, Stupid.
We do not negotiate with Pashtun or other peoples as ethnic groups. Internally they, too, are factionalized. Trump made no mention of tribes.
President Trump alluded only vaguely to political solutions in AfPak, making no mention of tribes. Kabul and Islamabad are not central powerhouses that one finds in Berlin or Bangkok, where one government speaks for most people. The President of Afghanistan is often called the Mayor of Kabul. Talking about Afghanistan as a discreet location or country is as meaningless as talking about the Hawaiin climate while ignoring the Pacific.
If the US is to operate as a stabilizing influence in AfPak, tribes are primary keys. Or, as Steven Pressfield would say: It’s the tribes, Stupid.
We do not negotiate with Pashtun or other peoples as ethnic groups. Internally they, too, are factionalized. Trump made no mention of tribes.
The cost of the AfPak war has been high. Thousands of Coalition casualties. Monetary cost of maybe $1 trillion. Nobody knows the real cost, or the costs of diverting our attention from domestic issues, or away from the looming China.
Our men and women are courageous. If I could have streamed live for hours on end, day after day, year by year, from combat, our troops would make you proud, and probably leave some people hiding under tables. But they kept going. Doing their missions.
There was plenty of courage and dedication. I probably saw more combat in Iraq and Afghanistan than any other writer. If not, close. My take away was that this generation is better than popularly advertised. Tough, resilient, smart, they make great Soldiers. And it is up to older generations not to waste their lives chasing fantasies. We must not continue pouring lives into bottomless pits that do not serve vital national interests.
So far, our various AfPak strategies have created a drug factory with monied enemies who are even more international than when we began.
Afghanistan is not a country but an area that is not another country.
Afghanistan is an illusion, a shape drawn on a map, filled with many peoples with different cultures and languages, governing themselves mostly in tribal ways, chased with a deep swill of Islam.
Our goals in Afghanistan should be limited to strategic interests including checking Iran, while combating transnational terrorism. This can be accomplished with small numbers of special operations and even contractors.
Checking Iran includes maintaining airbases and intelligence operations.
The military has already proven for almost 16 years that despite their professionalism and courage, the place is worse now than before. The current military leadership is no more brilliant than previous, and the enemies are stronger, bigger, and more emboldened than ever before.
Nothing new came from Trump’s Afghanistan speech. He talked tough about relaxing the rules of engagement, but so what? I have been there during times of great troop strength and limber ROE and the grass still grew faster than we were willing to cut.
My sources indicate that when new US forces and any additional Coalition arrive in Afghanistan, total force will be fewer then 20,000.
Last time I was there, we had about 150,000. Probably double that with civilian enablers. I saw airstrikes nearly daily just in the places I went, and more firefights than I can remember. It was not a matter of relaxing ROE. We were free to shoot bad guys.
Even with 150,000 + enablers, if we were to succeed with troop strength alone, we brought a gallon of paint to cover a barn. That gallon would barely paint the barn doors. Coalition forces never have, and never will, step foot in the vast majority of Afghan villages, not to mention the Pakistan side.
Trump made big talk about a new way, as if we are turning another corner. To look at Afghanistan as a 10-year, or 30-year nation building project is naïve. We, including Trump, keep saying we are not nation building, when nation building is exactly what we are doing, and if we are to go that route, this must be viewed as a century long project. Essentually, permanent.
By comparison to the impossible AfPak frontier, the US-Mexico border is easy to guard. The Durand Line is just scribble on a map, with scattered checkpoints on the ground. The line drawn by a couple of men splits through the Pashtun people, without their agreement, not unlike two men randomly drawing a line through Mexico and expecting Mexicans to care.
The border we should must be concerned about starts in the Gulf of Mexico and ends in the Pacific.
The biggest monster we face is China.
[The above are excerpts from the much longer article. Many photos at source, some bloody]
Hi.
Very good article. Mr. Yon knocked it out of the park.
Except one thing...
“that do not serve vital national interests.”
There are multi-national corporations here and abroad who have a vested interest in stabilizing Afghanistan. These companies hire lobbyist.
Big money. In what you may ask?
Strategic metals and rare earth elements. Billions are in them Afghan hills.
I would say nuke it from orbit, but it really wouldn’t change anything there.
5.56mm
“The President of Afghanistan is often called the Mayor of Kabul. Talking about Afghanistan as a discreet location or country is as meaningless as talking about the Hawaiin climate while ignoring the Pacific.
If the US is to operate as a stabilizing influence in AfPak, tribes are primary keys. Or, as Steven Pressfield would say: It’s the tribes, Stupid.
We do not negotiate with Pashtun or other peoples as ethnic groups. Internally they, too, are factionalized. Trump made no mention of tribes.”
Worth repeating.
What companies? What minerals? I hear this stuff sometimes, but never specific examples.
The strategic interest in Afghanistan, other than denying territories a base, is for us to have one.
This is the unspoken reality. For us to plausibly threaten or manipulate Iran, we need a bad next door.
If The USA decides to actually fight a war, rather than just make it a political football, we are not able to be stopped. We will win.
Check the CIA fact sheet for Afghanistan. I can’t remember all of them, but titanium, cobalt, mobeyllium, and then you have gold, copper and silver.
The multinational are 3M, duPont (sold) and others.
5.56mm
“This is the unspoken reality. For us to plausibly threaten or manipulate Iran, we need a bad next door.”
Back door.
I’d bought that line of reasoning when we had enough forces in Iraq, and Afghanistan and Bush did squat.
Methinks it’s all about the money.
Align with the right tribes, payoff the Taliban, and everyone gets their cut.
Imho, of course.
5.56mm
They do have volcanoes.
We can never win the war on terror until we admit it is a war with Islam and act accordingly!
Quite frankly, Mr. Yon is echoing some points President Trump made and overlooking others while focusing observations both general and useless. I do not regard this as a helpful article towards a greater understanding of the AfPak axis of evil.
When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains,
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains
An' go to your Gawd like a soldier.
Go, go, go like a soldier,
Go, go, go like a soldier,
Go, go, go like a soldier,
So-oldier of the Queen!
Rudyard Kipling
The Young British Soldier
1895
Oops. “Base” next door
While not satisfying to many, we do have interests. Maintaining a presence near Iran and Pakistan is to our advantage - especially since our departure would allow both to turn the whole of Afghanistan into a terrorist breeding “camp” that could absorb a pounding w/o causing them “personal” damage and serve as a propaganda tool against us if we decided to “stray” from the terror camp borders in retaliations for terror attacks.
“Oops. “Base” next door”
Badass Special Forces Base(s) that sit(s) between Iran and Pakistan. Makes sense.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.