Posted on 02/17/2015 4:17:04 AM PST by Kaslin
Do Republicans have a realistic chance to win the next presidential election? Some analysts suggest the answer is no. They argue that there is a 240-electoral-vote "blue wall" of 18 states and D.C. that have gone Democratic in the last six presidential elections.
A Democratic nominee needs only 30 more electoral votes to win the presidency, they note accurately. A Republican nominee, they suggest, has little chance of breaking through the blue wall. He (or she) would have to win 270 of the 298 other electoral votes.
Democrats do have an advantage in the electoral vote, because heavily Democratic clusters clinch about 170 electoral votes for them, while Republicans have a lock on only about 105. But the blue wall theory, like all political rules of thumb, is true only till it's not. And this one could easily prove inoperative in a competitive 2016 race.
To see why, go back and put yourself in the shoes of a Democratic strategist following the 2004 presidential race. Assume that a stronger 2008 Democratic nominee will win all of John Kerry's 252 electoral votes (which happened). Then take a look at the states in which Kerry won 43 percent or more of the popular vote.
The four states in which Kerry won 48 percent or more -- Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Nevada -- were obvious targets, seriously contested in three or four of the previous four elections. Add Florida (47 percent for Kerry and obviously closely contested) and you have 318 electoral votes easily accessible in a good Democratic year.
What states should you target beyond that? It depends on who your nominee is. If it's Hillary Clinton, you might look at Missouri, Arkansas, Arizona, Tennessee and West Virginia. Bill Clinton won Arizona once and the other four twice, and Hillary Clinton won all but Missouri in the 2008 primaries. These states' 43 electoral votes raise the potential win to 361.
If your nominee is Barack Obama, your targets are different. You might look at Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina, plus Missouri. All but Colorado have large minority populations, and all but Missouri have large blocs of upscale whites -- groups among which Obama demonstrated strong appeal in 2008 primaries.
These states had 48 electoral votes in 2008. Obama won all but Missouri's 11 and made up for that by winning 11 in Indiana, a 39 percent Kerry state.
The lesson here is that in a favorable opinion climate, a party can successfully target previously unwinnable states containing voting blocs that can be moved or just mobilized. It helps greatly if, like Obama, they increase their turnout in primaries.
Likewise, a Republican strategist looking ahead to 2016 has 12 states where Mitt Romney won 43 to 49 percent of the vote in 2012. Add some significant share of their 146 electoral votes to the 206 Romney won, and you get well above the 270 majority.
At the top of the list are perennial targets Florida and Ohio. Just below, at 47 percent in favor of Romney, are Virginia and -- part of the supposedly immoveable blue wall -- Pennsylvania. Republicans nearly beat a popular Democratic senator in Virginia last year and have been making steady gains in blue-collar Western Pennsylvania. Those four states added to Romney's would give Republicans 286 electoral votes -- George W. Bush's winning total in 2004.
What states could Republicans target beyond that? A nominee with Midwestern appeal might go after Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota (42 electoral votes). One with Hispanic appeal could target Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico (20 electoral votes). One with appeal to upscale whites could target Colorado, New Hampshire and Minnesota (23 electoral votes). One with working-class appeal might choose Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan (32 electoral votes).
Critics might ask whether a 2016 Republican nominee can count on all the Romney states. Certainly not, if the party is as unpopular as it was in 2008. And North Carolina, a 48 percent Obama state, certainly looks like a realistic Democratic target in a close race.
But Obama got no more than 45 percent in other Romney states. Of the six where he got 44 or 45 percent, Democrats have had little success lately, even when running candidates better adapted to the local terrain than Hillary Clinton would be. None looks like a good Democratic target.
Republicans looking to 2016 can learn from Democrats' 2008 success. Target wisely, and think of states you haven't carried in years. And use the primaries to expand potentially favorable blocs.
I do not think that I will see another Republican president in my lifetime. There are just too many low information voters, too many brainwashed idiots to overcome.
Pennsylvania is a lost cause. It used to be a reliable Republican state for 100 hundred years, from 1860 to 1960.
The then the feral started to move into and take over Philadelphia, along with their 110% voter turnout. It’s been all downhill for Pennsylvania since.
Ancient history there. America wasn’t nearly as packed with gibsmedats like it is now. The dems have a lock on 260 EVs.
“Republicans nearly beat a popular Democratic senator in Virginia last year”
With ZERO help from the national Pubbies, I might add. The Pubbies will carry VA with a principled conservative. Don’t try to force another GOPe turd on us.
Exactly! You have to WANT to win and the GOPe doesn’t.
1984 was 31 years ago.
I occasionally tune into to Rush and Levin and they talk just like that, like the country hasn’t changed in 31 years.
The ones that believe them want to try to live in that fantasy world, like its still 1984. And that is where talk radio takes them, to the world we miss that no longer exists.
Ted Cruz isnt winning CA , NY, MA or Maryland. Its a fantasy.
“I do not think that I will see another Republican president in my lifetime. There are just too many low information voters, too many brainwashed idiots to overcome.”
Plus the party seems intent on nominating “nice guy” candidates who won’t aggressively attack the opposition or even respond to attacks on them. Punching bags don’t win elections.
Ok, we've ruled that out. Plan B????
Your opinion of the strategy piece is so...so...progressive! Good on you.
I’ll bet you are kinda tired of that worn-out Constitution thing, too; seein’ as how it is over 200-years old and we can’t realistically go back to 1776.
If TedCruz and Scott Walker were the ticket, they would win... including CT and ME.
Barone's piece is a history of past wins/losses and an assessment of what current so-called "people in the know" think about how the EVs stack up. A lot of it is pretty much rote based on how entrenched liberalism and entilements are in these states and cities.
To his credit, he isn't directly stating the only way to win is with Jeb, or Walker, etc. But the analysis pretty much is leading to it - that "GOP can win IF we nominate Jeb and target those states we haven't carried in years."
In truth, the only way you can target the masses in those states is to propose more spending, take away more money from workers to give to non workers, give away more freedoms, take away more freedoms, and let the illegals in like Moses bringing in the Jews from Egypt. In other words they are already saying whoever their choice for GOPe nominee is, he is gonna have to go left.
The one thing their elitist minds and consultants cannot fathom is the resolve of realists who know and believe in what a Constitutional Republic means.
They are going to analyze themselves right into another loss, freshly off the top of the Tsunami of November that gave them the one chance to show the world they are up to it. And, if they nominate a Jeb, or a Walker that will allow illegals here illegally to remain here legally and get citizenship in some fashion, they will lose again. I'll just stay home on election day (as I suspect millions of other conservatives will, too.
I agree on that. I just think the overwhelming problem are the idiot voters who are brainwashed in publik skools all their life and then watch Jon Stewart for their news and think they are informed.
Time machines are fantasies from sci-fi movies. They don't really exist.
Living in a fantasy is believing that you will win the lottery and so you go on a spending spree.
The voters today are nothing like they were in 1984.
That should be obvious.
Cruz is not winning MA, NY, CA or Maryland, no chance of it.
McCain, Dole and Romney all tried to appeal to the Democrats instead of putting forth a principled agenda that was clear, concise and communicated the message that freedom is better than a handout. The difference was bigger government or much bigger government.
The gibmedats had a choice between someone offering table scraps vs. the entire cookie jar. The Democrats had no reason to cross party lines. The Republicans had no reason to vote.
So, now the choice is to nominate a conservative that can fearlessly communicate the message, or let the republic slide further into the abyss.
If Walker is for amnesty, why did he join the suit with 25 other states to stop O’bastards amnesty plan?
Does WI issue drivers licenses to illegals? Does WI allow ‘sanctuary cities’ like pro-amnesty states do?
Saying he is pro-amnesty makes no sense when he has taken no action in that direction.
Ok.... one would think it is a valid argument, but time and context on issues like this, especially in a political career and potential run up to bigger things don’t make actions fixed for all time. It is evident to me that there are conflicting accounts on his position on the issue - a lot of them have been cited in other threads here.
All Walker needs to do is to categorically establish a clear position on it. Say that he is against legalizing illegals that are here (illegally) and not for allowing any of them to obtain citizenship in any fashion. That’s all. Until he does, I’m going to treat him like Jeb or any other candidate that won’t commit.
That's a talk radio simpleton narrative(which is what talk radio is about) . Those losers candidates had a bunch of problems. It was easy to tell that they would lose.(not to Rush or Levin but to me)
Romney for instance insulted many voters with the 47% comments. That was not conservative or liberal.
The other two had a host of problems, one was that they were dinosours. .
There are many liberal plants who fear Gov Walker and will LIE about him to divide us.
The liberal hit pieces are being printed....watch the dividers cite those sources when making their accusations against Walker.
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