Game on!
Posted on 09/07/2011 2:57:12 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
There have been many pundits, news writers, and bloggers recently, who have cited a specific Fox News poll while giving us the "reasons" that they think Governor Palin should stay out of the 2012 presidential race. Considering that the poll has a Fox News label on it, we as conservatives are supposed to believe that it is entirely credible. There are some problems with that, and "credible" isn't a word I would use in association with the numbers they came up with. Here's why...
The section of the poll that is being touted by the media and by the governor's detractors states:
Should Palin Run?
All in all, most voters -- 74 percent -- think Palin should stay on the sidelines in 2012. Just 20 percent think she should run for president.
The groups most likely to support Palin running are white evangelical Christians (30 percent) and Tea Party members (28 percent). Still, majorities of those groups do not think she should run (62 percent and 66 percent respectively). In addition, 72 percent of conservatives, 71 percent of Republicans and 66 percent of independents think Palin should stay out.
Women (77 percent) are a bit more likely than men (71 percent) to say Palin should sit this one out.
Just among women, Republicans (26 percent) are more likely than independents (24 percent) and Democrats (15 percent) to think Palin should run.
What these people leave out of their reports is perhaps the most interesting fact about the poll altogether. It states (emphasis):
The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 911 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from August 29 to August 31. For the total sample, it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Now, just who is Shaw & Company Research? Alexander Burns from Politico writes:
The Shaw in Shaw & Company is Daron Shaw, a University of Texas political science professor and veteran of several GOP campaigns, whose name has been in the news a bit lately.
That's because Shaw is one of the starring players in Sasha Issenberg's e-book, "Rick Perry and His Eggheads: Inside the Brainiest Political Operation in America," which details a groundbreaking set of experiments that Shaw and three other academics conducted inside Perry's 2006 reelection campaign.
The Perry campaign allowed the so-called eggheads to run tests on "anything [they] could figure out how to randomize, from lawn signs to television ads," Issenberg writes, and they assembled a provocative set of findings on which kinds of campaign tactics really work.
Fast forward five years and Perry is running for president and Shaw is one of the lead pollsters for the most influential cable network, by far, among GOP primary voters.
I've read the 30 page book that Burns is talking about, so don't be distracted by the fact that he writes for Politico. What he wrote is accurate, you can see for yourself here.
Now, Shaw maintains that there wasn't a conflict of interest in doing the poll for Fox because Perry didn't pay him and the other "eggheads" for their services. Even though he and the others were very much a part of Perry's political team, he claims that " we're stupid, we never entered into any business relationship with Perry." But given the huge numbers for Perry in the poll and the fact that Team Perry is determined to keep Governor Palin out of the race, something isn't right with Fox using Shaw's agency to gather numbers for a conservative audience.
There is also the fact that the Fox poll numbers are very different from a poll that CNN conducted just this last July. Ian noted at the time:
55% of Republican and Republican-leaning independents want Governor Palin to run.
That is a huge difference between the Shaw and Anderson Robbins (Fox poll) numbers. When you see that big of a shift in that short amount of time, you know something isn't right. The fact that Fox used somebody that the Perry people trust and allowed close access to, should send off alarms to more than just the writers at Politico.
Thank you Al B. for the link and best wishes!
Thank you, too leapfrog0202.
I went shopping just a few minutes ago but couldn’t find anything new to buy, so my old clothes will have to suffice...lol. Thank goodness they’re clean and pressed!
Absolutely. If Palin enters the race, the numbers will change significantly.
Have a great trip! See you Tuesday. We will be leaving for R.I. on Friday to see our twin 9 month old nephews for the first time in person. Take plenty of pics to post please.
Shoot! I knew I forgot to buy something...! A camera! I have my cell phone I guess. Others will have cameras, like Syncro!
I wil talk to you before your trip to RI!
“You all be good, ya hear?”
No promises! Have a great time.
“Likely my last ping to you all before next Tuesday. I’m going to Tampa for the TEA PARTY EXPRESS /ccn debate and I’m leaving early tomorrow to visit my little grandson in Orlando first.”
Sounds like the next thing to heaven for you. :-) Have a wonderful trip! Looking forward to your TP report and pics.
No promises? LOL.
You’re always super awesome and good! Be well and I hope Sarah Palin is in Tampa with Tea Party Express. Fingers crossed and prayers.
Palin enjoys wide spread support and if she announces... she will jam that widespread support right up where it deserves to be the most. Hey good old boys... your time is over... THERE IS A CONSERVACAINE COMING... CATEGORY 5... political winds in excess of 500MPH... Seas running 50 to 100 feet... PREPARE FOR YOUR A$$ES TO BE KICKED!
LLS
It saddens me to see that Freepers are not responding to your very reasonable point of view (reasonable = I agree with it). So many seem stuck with their own little dramas. What has become of this website?
Thanks very much, thouworm! Keep fighting the good fight!
I won’t have access to a computer either....*sigh*.... so I will be in FR withdrawal until I meet-up with FReepers on September 12!
“Are you sporting an extra chromosome?”
You might want to re-think that insult.
“Look, look at this. We got Hurricane Grace moving north off the Atlantic seaboard. Huge...getting massive. Two, this low south of Sable Island, ready to explode. Look at this. Three, a fresh cold front swooping down from Canada. But it’s caught a ride on the jet stream...and is motoring hell-bent towards the Atlantic. What if Hurricane Grace runs smack into it? Add to the scenario this baby off Sable Island, scrounging for energy. She’ll start feeding off both the Canadian cold front...and Hurricane Grace. You could be a meteorologist all your life and never see something like this. It would be a disaster of epic proportions. It would be...”
“...the perfect storm.”
lol...I know, she’s like the ever-ready bunny...and I don’t mean that as any kind of pun...she just never slows down and just keeps coming back at them all. And of course, even in grubby running sweats has fathers, sons, brothers, uncles and even grandpas drooling...that’s got to put a crimp in a lot of female ego’s.
And, of course, she has it all together, the looks, an absolutely gorgeous husband by her side, an adorable family, a fabulous career, with a lot of success...which just makes the pig-faced slob femi-nazi crowd just go bat spit crazy...PRICELESS!
Well if your guy is a shoe-in what do you care if she gets in? She qualifies under the constitution. For all the time the anti Palin folks spend citing polls that say she can’t win & she shouldn’t get in, you’d think you were afraid of her getting in the race. Shakespeare said it best, “thou doth protest too much.”
Because as we all know never in the history of polling have polls changed over a period of several months. Never, ever, ever! No politician in the history of elections had been top dog, a shoe-in and then had that change in even as little as a week or two. Nope, never happened to Bachmann or Perry. And those polls that say Ron Paul is the clear winner, unlike every poll you’re citing those are the ones that aren’t true.
Cindie
You call 3,000-4,000 people, and keep running track of all responses as they come in. Then, you select that chunk of 500, 600 or whatever size sample you need to arrive at the result desired. For instance, if out of 4,000 calls, the overall average was 51% want her to run, but within that total you happened to hit an unusually partisan stretch (say, when calling a heavily Democrat section of Dallas) where 75% of 600 consecutive calls were anti-Palin, you report on those 600 responses.
"We polled 600 random registered voters and 72% do not want Sarah Palin to enter the 2012 race."
The statement is factual, the report is a big fat lie. The one poll that counts will be taken in 14 months.
I have never for one scond considered being jealous of Sarah Palin, but at this moment, I am just green with jealousy of YOU. Yes, YOU, onyx!!! I ‘spect I’ll be over it in a minute or two, but right now, I would give anything, (almost) to be traveling with you to Tampa.
Have a great trip and enjoy every second of it. Enjoy your time with your family to the max. Enjoy it double for me! And triple it for the rest of us who can’t be there!!!
Safe trip and safe return, my FRiend.
I'm jealous. Have a great time. We'll keep the lights on for ya.
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