Posted on 10/27/2012 3:39:14 PM PDT by nwrep
Click on the link below for the analysis.
There are some good points that this blog makes about why Ohio might be out of reach for Romney.
It boils down to the fact that all polls show the race as tied as best in Ohio - not a single poll has shown R&R leading there. The average lead for 0 based on OH state polls is around 2 points, enough to put him over the top in Ohio based on historical trends correlating polls to actual results.
I have read articles here from prognosticators, tea leaf readers and political analysts from NRO who passionately argue that:
a. We have closed the gap in early polling and will have an easier time overcoming the D+ advantage on election day
b. Due to a D advantage in early polling, likely voter screens are contaminated, and therefore we should ignore the polls.
While (a) sounds like a reasonable argument, (b) sounds like denial. State level polling (which I believe more than passionate entreaties by earnest Freepers) is still not showing R&R in a comfortable position there.
Without Ohio, it becomes a dice roll, other polls showing close races in WI, MI, PA, NV notwithstanding, since we cannot bank on those states.
The only thing going for R&R right now is comfortable leads in Gallup and Rasmussen national polls. The state by state picture is very different, and points to 0 leading in EVs. Talk of a R&R landslide is dangerous and counter-productive at this point.
Comments?
What part of 5pts ahead in the national polls don't you grasp?
You guys need to hide under the bed until election day.
Fraud is a problem, but not when the win is overwhelming like Ohio's is going to be.
Just my feeling on this. Obama is pissing off a whole bunch of Democrats and we seem to forget that little fact.
The tale will be told in 10 days.
Seriously. Why the eff are you posting this rot? What’s the point?
LOL! Don't hold back. Love your rant!
Obama isn't even appealing to the middle class, he is making appeals to his fringe supporters, the youth vote, Unions, etc.
The State polls are showing Obama even with Romney so the Democrats will not be discouraged and vote, this is about the Senate, not the Presidency.
One great thing about this election is arrogant media hyped clowns like Sliver will be finished after this election. Like Zogby after 2004, Silver name will be a punch line to jokes for the next decade
State polls lag behind national polls by 10-18 days. State by state polls are not done as frequently. Thus the state by state averages Sliver is counting on are still reflecting polls from early Oct. Once has to wonder what happens to Silver when the state by state polls come in line with the national polls over the next week? Silver keeps grasping for straws to validate his personal political opinions. Once this election is over Silver creditability as an analysis is going to be destroyed.
Problem is the polls Silver and the Democrats are siting are all based on a +3 to +9 Democrat over sample.
Weed out the Ohio polling that massively over samples Dems and you have a tie. Ties are bad bad news for incumbents since on election day undecided swing to the challengers
Which indicates you, like the rest of the Dems, are simply ignoring all facts that challenge what your emotion based opinions. Which "State by state" polls are you believing? Rass, Suffox, PPP, ARG and Gavis have Ohio bascially tied and Obama under 50%. The notoriously inaccurate MEDIA polls like CNN and Time are the ONLY thing keeping Obama average up in Ohio. Seems like Silver you are simply cherry picking which polls you want to believe
This hype about Oh is pure media manufactured nonsense to keep attention off everywhere else where Obama is in trouble. Obama can win Oh, lose WI and CO (both likely) and lose the election.
The only reason you are hearing this non stop hype about Oh is because it is the only place the Media can manufacture good news for 0
IIRC, the CNN Ohio poll is the only one with indies for Obama and the poll in general is weird.
Should get a better handle on things by next Wednesday or so. The last few days can also be interesting.
I hope you are right, though I have to chuckle how here at FR we have destroyed Gallup for years and suddenly they are the best polling firm in the world because our guy is ahead?
I’ve seen too many victories screwed up. Too much fraud, too many pollsters that don’t know what they are doing. Buck was supposed to win Colorado, he was up 3 going into the election night..he lost.
I hope RR wins, but you’ll forgive me for not exactly jumping on board and thinking it is a slam dunk like some of you do. Go back to 2010 and 2008 with some of the predictions here that became horribly wrong.
Mike Barone stated that if the popular numbers stay as they are +5 Romney will win.
Now, do we have to get out and vote, ofcourse.
But we are going to win.
What you are hearing regarding State polls being tied, despite admitting that Obama is down in every major demographic, is desperation by the Democrats to keep their turnout high for the other elections.
They know Obama is done.
I actually do believe Romney will pull it out. However as I recall how ONE address in Columbus in 2008 was used for the registrations of 14 out-of-state students working for OFA, it makes me uneasy.
I understand your concern, but this win will too big for them to steal.
After all, if the narrative became "Romney is going to win Ohio" then there would be absolutely no suspense left for the LSM to milk in these last 9 days.
If 0hio trends Romney, then the narrative would HAVE to switch to the fact of a GOP landslide, which of course the lamestream media will NEVER do.
0bama is already toast in most of the other states like VA, FL, NC, MO, etc., so the ONLY option to maintaining interest and revenues is for Ohio to APPEAR close.
I just don't see how Romney can have so much momentum nationally, and have Ohio magically buck the trend.
However, if 0bama DOES win Ohio, I'm confident at this point that Romney will pickup enough EV's regardless. Ohio might be enigmatic this election cycle, but it will not be enough to save 0bama.
Sheesh, ain’t that the truth.
Silver cherry picks data to serve his goals. In the linked article, he posts a “Probit Regression” which shows the probability of a candidate winning a state vs the polling average. OK, I don’t know what a Probit Regression is, nor do I know his raw data. But, I do know that his plot claims that if the state polls show a tied race, there is a 50-50 chance of that candidate winning the state on Election Day.
Makes sense... unless you’ve been following his data prior to today. Because in the Spring, he crunched the numbers and showed that the challenger tends to outperform the October polls relative to the incumbent. So, according to his own data in the Spring, if a state is tied in the October polls, the challenger has greater than 50-50 odds of winning. But his plot says the opposite.
Johnnie, I am referring to the same state level polling in Ohio referenced by Byron York in the National Review. The best we have there is R&R are tied. However, I agree that the polls may have some problems, and may not correctly represent the partisan demographics, but the extent of the deviation is unknown to me.
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