Keyword: electionpolls2012

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  • In Pennsylvania, the Democratic Lean Is Slight, but Durable ( Nate Silver Watch Oct 29 )

    10/29/2012 3:01:30 PM PDT · by NoLibZone · 15 replies
    New York Times ^ | Oct 29 2012 | Nate Silver
    New reports indicate that the 2012 presidential campaign is coming to Pennsylvania. After a spate of advertising during the summer, Pennsylvania — in a break from tradition — has largely avoided the volume of campaign commercials that states like Ohio and Virginia have seen. But beginning Tuesday, Restore Our Future, a “super-PAC” supporting Mitt Romney, will blanket Pennsylvania with about $2 million worth of advertisements. President Obama’s advisers greeted that news on Monday by saying that the Obama campaign would also spend advertising money in the Keystone State between now and Election Day. In fact, Pennsylvania is the only state...
  • FiveThirtyEight Blog Doubles Down: Ohio a Near Lock for Obama

    10/27/2012 3:39:14 PM PDT · by nwrep · 107 replies
    The New York Times, FiveThirtyEight Blog | October 27, 2012 | nwrep
    Click on the link below for the analysis. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/oct-26-state-poll-averages-usually-call-election-right/ There are some good points that this blog makes about why Ohio might be out of reach for Romney. It boils down to the fact that all polls show the race as tied as best in Ohio - not a single poll has shown R&R leading there. The average lead for 0 based on OH state polls is around 2 points, enough to put him over the top in Ohio based on historical trends correlating polls to actual results. I have read articles here from prognosticators, tea leaf readers and political...